The plane landed at the Capital Airport, and US Secretary of State Cordell Hull disembarked to be greeted by Chinese Foreign Minister Li Shiguang. As they shook hands warmly, Hull remarked, "Trans-Atlantic flights have already been established. I wonder when we will see flights spanning the entire Pacific."

From Washington to China was once a long, arduous journey. Even now, Hull had to take an American flight across the Atlantic, then hop stop-by-stop from the west of the World Island to its east. Even so, what used to be a voyage of over a month by ship had been shortened to three days—already incredibly fast.

Li Shiguang knew Hull's itinerary and smiled. "I don't think it will be too long."

Li Shiguang spoke with confidence. China's geographical location was protected by layers of harsh natural conditions, which was a strategic defensive advantage, but the world's most economically developed regions were all far from China. As China's connections with the world grew tighter, travel was indeed a suffering. Fortunately, the latest large aircraft from China's aircraft manufacturing companies could theoretically fly over 8,000 kilometers in a single trip—enough to fly non-stop from Peiping to Hawaii. However, navigation was not yet precise enough, and this ultra-long-range aircraft had only just completed its prototype phase, so test flights had not yet begun.

Hull didn't mind; his comment was merely a gesture of goodwill. He smiled, "I hope to see it as soon as possible."

The two soon arrived at the State Council by car. Hull had come with a mandate from President Roosevelt. Upon meeting Premier Wu Youping, Hull immediately conveyed President Roosevelt's desire to sign a four-power Reinsurance Treaty between China, Japan, the US, and the UK.

Hearing Hull's earnest presentation, Wu Youping calculated the strategic needs of the United States. The US was a two-ocean power, with vast oceans serving as natural barriers. However, for the US to project military power overseas, it also needed to cross these vast oceans. In Wu Youping's view, President Roosevelt's proposal for a four-nation military Reinsurance Treaty was aimed at limiting China's naval development.

Wu Youping praised, "I greatly appreciate Mr. Roosevelt's attitude towards peace."

Secretary Hull paused. The words were indeed praise, but in the diplomatic sphere, saying this meant China would not sign. If China didn't sign, Japan wouldn't sign either. Thus, the US objective had already failed.

Wu Youping's expression remained mild. From a geopolitical perspective, China, Japan, and the UK were neighbors (via colonies/territory), while the US was an extra-regional nation. Previously, He Rui had proposed signing a four-power reinsurance treaty because China's situation was unsettled, and he needed to drag an extra-regional power in to act as a spoiler. Now, China was about to complete two Five-Year Plans and would soon begin expanding its fleet. There was no longer any reason to sign a four-power Reinsurance Treaty.

Secretary Hull did not immediately press the issue. He had two goals for this trip: one was to push for the Reinsurance Treaty, and the other was to discuss plans for China to purchase American grain. Between the two, the grain sales plan was clearly more important. Previously, just two years of grain trade between China and the US had nearly allowed former President Hoover, whose reputation had hit rock bottom, to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat in the election. President Roosevelt naturally wanted to sign a longer-term grain supply agreement to pull the farmers' votes into his own hands.

So Hull began to discuss this matter. Seeing that Hull merely made demands without offering guarantees to China, Li Shiguang felt this style was very American. Western negotiations were always like this: state one's own interests first, then wait for the other side to haggle. Because these interests were very realistic, it made the West feel very mercenary.

In reality, Westerners weren't mercenary; they simply knew how to tailor their treatment to the recipient. Facing a strong country, Western nations were extremely polite. Secretary Hull's straightforward request was proof of his respect for China.

After listening to Hull, Wu Youping immediately and frankly expressed his dissatisfaction. "Due to your country's high tariff policies, sales of Chinese goods in the United States have become extremely difficult. The balance of trade in goods between China and the US has remained in a surplus for you. We cannot accept such a situation."

Secretary Hull was prepared. "Mr. Premier, I believe this view is biased. The United States has huge investments in China. From a capital perspective, the US has always been helping China. The surplus cannot be calculated this way."

Wu Youping waved his hand. "American capital entering China only proves that China has a good business environment, and entrepreneurs from various countries, including the US, are willing to invest in China. But in terms of commodity trade, we are under tremendous pressure."

Hull naturally wouldn't abandon his position over such words. He stated firmly, "I believe there is great room for cooperation between China and the US. There is no need to waste breath on this issue."

"Then why does the US government refuse to accept payment in Chinese Yuan?" Wu Youping countered.

As Secretary of State with presidential authorization, Hull naturally wanted to clarify China's bottom line regarding payment in Chinese Yuan. Using Chinese Yuan to pay for goods China purchased from the US was a major issue. Even though France now provided a value guarantee for the Chinese Yuan—meaning French banks would provide exchange settlement—doing so would imply the US had to cooperate with France.

If the US simply agreed to let China pay for American grain in Chinese Yuan, it would effectively mean the US recognized the value of the Chinese Yuan. The US had no obligation to help the Chinese Yuan and the Franc. So Hull replied, "We can accept Francs as a payment currency."

Wu Youping waved his hand again. "This is not conducive to trade relations between China and the US."

"If China signs the Reinsurance Treaty, the US might consider it," Hull naturally steered the topic back to the treaty.

Wu Youping wasn't anxious at all. Buying American grain helped the American government. Recently, both Britain and France had indicated they could expand grain exports to China; evidently, both countries were eyeing the market share American grain currently held. Even if China bought American grain this year and stopped afterward, China's food supply would not be affected.

With this confidence, Wu Youping quickly skipped over the topic and turned to ask about recent US economic developments. "I heard the US government has expanded its monetary injection. The Chinese State Council is very concerned about this."

Hull hadn't expected Wu Youping's counterattack to be so multifaceted. He could only answer cautiously, "As far as I know, the situation is not as drastic as you describe."

Wu Youping smiled. "But we saw the Federal Reserve's announcement, which feels in significant conflict with what you are saying. I wonder who we should believe?"

Although Wu Youping was smiling, his words were sharp. If Hull couldn't produce any proof, it meant the Chinese State Council questioned Hull's honesty. This was dangerous in diplomacy. The words of a Secretary of State considered dishonest would be heavily discounted. Facing such skepticism, Hull did not evade but began to explain to Wu Youping what had happened recently in Washington.

Since the Great Depression was triggered by a financial crisis caused by frantic speculation, President Roosevelt's New Deal also started with reorganizing finance. During what was called the "Hundred Days" (March 9 to June 16, 1933):

When Roosevelt was sworn in on March 4, 1933, almost no banks in the country were open, and checks could no longer be cashed in Washington.

At Roosevelt's request, Congress passed the *Emergency Banking Act* on March 9, deciding to implement a licensing system based on individual review of banks. Solvent banks were allowed to reopen as soon as possible. From March 13 to 15, 14,771 banks received licenses to reopen. Compared to the 25,568 banks before the crisis erupted in 1929, 10,797 had been eliminated.

The extraordinary measures Roosevelt took to reorganize finance played a huge role in cleaning up the mess and stabilizing public sentiment. Public opinion praised this action as "a bolt of lightning in a pitch-black sky." While reorganizing the banks, Roosevelt also took action to improve the US's external economic position.

Starting with the announcement of halting gold exports on March 10, 1933, a series of major measures were taken:

On April 5, the private hoarding of gold and gold securities was banned, and the exchange of banknotes for gold was stopped; on April 19, gold exports were prohibited, and the gold standard was abandoned.

After explaining the major events recently occurring in the US, Secretary Hull concluded, "Therefore, it is not that the US has expanded monetary injection, but that over ten thousand American banks reopening required the state to pay out a large amount of currency to the banks so they would have enough cash for operations. Mr. Premier, the Federal Reserve's report did indeed mention the currency issuance situation, but this is a tactical issuance. It is not a decision by the US government to issue currency in excess."

Wu Youping already knew these things. He merely nodded but said nothing.

Seeing Wu Youping's reaction, Hull continued to explain, "We cannot respond to the Chinese Yuan payment issue right now not because our country discriminates against the Chinese Yuan, but because the US financial system is currently in turmoil, and we cannot explain the work regarding Chinese Yuan payments. We can establish a discussion mechanism for the Chinese Yuan payment issue right now, and I believe we can certainly resolve this problem quickly."

Wu Youping nodded. "I believe in the sincerity of the American side. I suggest that once the Chinese Yuan issue is resolved, China and the US immediately convene a meeting on grain imports."

Hull hadn't expected the situation to unwittingly develop to the point he least wanted to see. The Chinese Yuan issue belonged to the US Treasury Department's scope of work, while the Sino-US grain issue was the domain of the Department of Commerce. Only the four-power military Reinsurance Treaty fell under Hull's management as Secretary of State.

As a result, Wu Youping insisted on solving the Chinese Yuan issue first. Although this technically completed the communication for his trip and reached a conclusion, this conclusion was far from Hull's own calculations.

With no other choice, Hull could only say, "I would like to request a meeting with Chairman He Rui."

Wu Youping immediately pushed this to the Foreign Ministry. "Then please, Minister Li, discuss that with Mr. Hull."

***

He Rui didn't want to see Hull at all. It wasn't that his views differed from Wu Youping's and he didn't want Hull to discover discord within the Chinese government. Rather, He Rui was currently analyzing the latest US trends and truly had no time to see Hull.

Discussing US grand strategy with the US Secretary of State was the most foolish choice. The Secretary of State might know President Roosevelt's arrangements, but he certainly wouldn't say them, and would instead try to mislead He Rui.

The reason He Rui was so anxious was that recent events in the US showed a significant deviation from the historic Roosevelt New Deal. Historically, Roosevelt won the election with ease, sweeping through like a whirlwind, and the American people were full of anticipation for the New Deal. Now, Roosevelt had won narrowly, and the opposition he faced was much stronger than in history.

Perhaps Republican congressmen believed Roosevelt was by no means the only choice, or perhaps after He Rui changed history, significant personnel changes or shifts in thinking had occurred among American congressmen. In any case, Roosevelt's *Emergency Banking Act* was passed, but the Banking Act (Glass-Steagall) had been rejected by Congress.

This wasn't what He Rui cared about most, because he had never learned who was in the US Senate and House in 1933, so he couldn't make comparisons.

What He Rui felt was wrong was that Roosevelt's "Fireside Chats" program had not appeared.

On March 12, 1933, the eighth day after his inauguration, Roosevelt accepted a recorded interview with ABC, CBS, and MBS in front of the fireplace in the reception room on the ground floor of the White House. Staff installed microphones by the fireplace. The President said: he hoped this talk would be intimate, dispensing with official pomp, like sitting in one's own home talking casually. Harry Butcher, manager of the CBS Washington office, said: In that case, let's call it "Fireside Chats." And so the name was set.

There is a view that the Fireside Chats were historically very important because Roosevelt himself used this new media tool, radio, to explain to the American people what his New Deal was all about, and to explain complex financial issues in language the public could understand, thereby gaining their support.

He Rui used to believe this, but now he didn't. Current radio stations, lacking satellites, couldn't cover the vast countryside. And radios were expensive tools that the poor couldn't afford.

Even if recordings could be broadcast locally, the people's knowledge structure couldn't comprehend the complexity of the banking industry; listening would be futile.

What really worked was perhaps simply Roosevelt, as President, conveying to the people that he was working hard to solve the economic crisis. But for that kind of propaganda, ordinary newspapers were sufficient.

Although He Rui didn't believe in the effectiveness of the Fireside Chats, the fact that Roosevelt didn't hold them proved that the situation he faced had changed too much. He Rui had to start studying possible changes in the US. Historically, Roosevelt was elected president four times. For the US, if Roosevelt only served two terms, it would be a major event capable of changing the country.

China didn't possess too much data right now, but even so, the materials filled several carts used for moving official documents. He Rui flipped through them at high speed. Since he wasn't a historian, he couldn't compare most of these materials. Even so, he found it very interesting.

It could be roughly determined that the Roosevelt New Deal chose to solve the economic crisis through massive liquidity injection. He Rui only knew that historically, President Hoover had engaged in many work-relief policies. Now it seemed Roosevelt definitely hadn't negated those policies; he not only inherited Hoover's plans but expanded them many times over.

Later generations said the New Deal was Keynesian. He Rui considered this far-fetched. Keynes himself was a British economist, and Keynesian solutions were custom-made for Britain. The US and UK were completely different in terms of land area, population, market structure, and consumer power. Naturally, there was no comparability.

If one insisted on the connection, it would undoubtedly be an insult to the economists of both countries. How could serious economists not know that plans must be formulated strictly according to the fundamental reality? If Roosevelt had copied Keynes, the US economy would inevitably have collapsed.

The core of the New Deal was "restoring confidence," and there was no problem with that. This was also why He Rui couldn't figure out why the "Fireside Chats" hadn't aired. The only possibilities were two: either the Fireside Chats were a spur-of-the-moment idea, not something deeply considered—this was most likely. The other possibility was that something made Roosevelt unwilling to conduct Fireside Chats. He Rui wanted to figure out what had stopped him.

If Roosevelt could hear He Rui's inner thoughts at this moment, he would probably smile bitterly. Because He Rui had done plenty of "Fireside Chat" style things over the past few years.

In current American society, it was believed there were four major "dictators" in the world: Mussolini in Italy, He Rui in China, Stalin in the Soviet Union, and Hitler, who had just come to power in Germany.

These four dictators all paid great attention to using radio tools for propaganda to the people. Especially the dictators of the Soviet Union and China, both of whom claimed to be socialist. Socialism was very popular in the world right now, and all four of these "dictators" in American eyes claimed to be engaging in socialism.

Roosevelt had initially wanted to do Fireside Chats, but his staff and even the heads of the broadcasting companies indicated that if he did so, he would be labeled as attempting to become a dictator. And Roosevelt couldn't even clarify this on the radio; the more he explained, the worse it would get.

Moreover, Roosevelt's cabinet members provided him with very optimistic data. According to the initial plan, China was supposed to buy 10 million tons of grain from the US last year, but in reality, China purchased 14.8 million tons. This gave American farmers a huge reprieve. Because so much grain was sold abroad, US grain prices skyrocketed, and the number of people employed in agriculture surged.

Although the market still lacked money, the economy was truly being pulled forward. At this stage, Roosevelt's *Emergency Banking Act* could inject funds into the cash-strapped agricultural sector, and the economy would immediately begin to improve rapidly.

Roosevelt's staff and the broadcasting heads admitted that the Fireside Chat model was quite good. So they suggested Roosevelt conduct such talks after the Hundred Days had taken effect. As long as the economy started to improve, rumors attacking Roosevelt for seeking to become a dictator would not generate any influence.

Roosevelt thought this suggestion was good and accepted it.

Although He Rui didn't know this inside information, he noticed the changes in the US economy. This made him spend more time deducing, to the point where he didn't even want to see Secretary Hull.

The fundamental change in the French economy was intentionally driven by He Rui. The current change in the US economy, however, was unintentionally driven by him. The reason was simple: last year, US grain purchase prices were so low that not buying was a loss. He Rui acted according to the economic principle of buying low. So He Rui had to spend time deducing whether war would break out ahead of schedule.

Historically, the American elites represented by Roosevelt were important promoters of World War II. Economic changes would only give them more reason to push for war.