文明破晓 (English Translation)

— "This world needs a more advanced form of civilization"

V06C095 - US Sells Grain (4)

Volume 6: Great Depression Era · Chapter 95

Secretary of State Hull's efforts to sign a grain agreement with China had encountered difficulties, but this did not discourage him. He immediately relayed China's demands back to Washington while continuously contacting Chinese officials, attempting to find an opportunity for a breakthrough.

In addition to his efforts within China, Hull also sent a telegram to the US Department of Commerce, instructing them to communicate with the Soviet Union. When Hull departed, the Soviet Union was still negotiating with the United States regarding the purchase and sale of equipment. That had not yet concluded.

Just three days after Hull's order was sent, Comrade Stalin received a report: "The United States requests that the Soviet Union increase its grain imports by 5 million tons annually. In return, the US government will approve the sale of more complete sets of equipment to the Soviet Union."

Slowly smoking his pipe, General Secretary Stalin was somewhat unclear about what the Yankees were trying to do. The United States was a grain exporter and needed to sell grain; this was not strange. As an importer of machinery and equipment, it was not strange for the Soviet Union to buy some American grain to alleviate the pressure on US exports. But 5 million tons, and an annual import at that—this put a lot of pressure on the Soviet Union. Given America's tradition of founding the nation on commerce, this approach seemed quite underhanded.

When things are abnormal, there must be a demon at work. General Secretary Stalin invited Molotov over and asked for his views. Molotov answered immediately, "General Secretary, as far as we know, US Secretary of State Hull is visiting China. It is said that one of his tasks is to hope to sign a longer-term grain export agreement with China."

General Secretary Stalin smoked half a bowl of tobacco in silence, feeling he understood the general reason. Molotov also offered his deduction. Presumably, the US government's meaning was that since the Soviet Union had good relations with China, and China had a huge demand for grain while the Soviet Union was a major grain exporter to China, shifting this pressure to the Soviet Union was something the Soviet Union could handle easily.

However, after giving this relatively non-negative explanation, Molotov offered a more negative one. "Comrade General Secretary, I think if we agree, the United States might also inform the Chinese side of this matter. Therefore, I suggest we pass this news on to China."

Stalin felt Molotov's suggestion seemed somewhat weak, but after considering it for a moment, he felt Molotov's suggestion was indeed more appropriate. American grain prices were cheap, while the Soviet Union's grain exports to China followed normal international market prices; there was a price gap between them. The Soviet Union could indeed make a profit from this.

But once this money was earned, it would give the Americans room to exploit the price difference. Although China had established security trust, political trust, and economic and trade trust with the Soviet Union, and although China called itself a socialist country, in the Soviet Union's view, China was still a capitalist country. The *Sino-Soviet Friendship Treaty* signed between the two countries was merely a peace and security treaty ensuring that China and the Soviet Union would not enter a state of war. This treaty was not directed against third countries and was by no means a treaty for joint combat between socialist countries.

In other words, Soviet Foreign Minister Molotov's view was correct. Once the Soviet Union earned the price difference, the United States could completely use this matter as a bargaining chip in its dealings with China. Rather than being used by the United States, telling China directly was actually the best choice.

General Secretary Stalin knocked out the burnt tobacco, his expression half-smiling. "It seems that pressuring China through us is the US Secretary of State's wishful thinking."

Molotov had not expected Comrade Stalin to make such a judgment, but after a moment's thought, he felt this idea was likely correct. But Molotov did not feel surprised. There were not many countries in the world today that could pressure China. If the United States were looking for countries like Italy, the Netherlands, or Germany, China would not pay them any attention at all.

If Britain were to pressure China, China would probably not care particularly either. As China's quasi-ally, France would not be foolish enough to pressure China. Now, only the Soviet Union could create enough pressure on China. And even if pressure were created, as long as there were no diplomatic accidents—meaning the person responsible for execution was not a fool who truly believed China was a country the Soviet Union could mold at will—then the two sides could reach a good agreement.

"Then shall I contact the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs now?" Molotov asked.

Stalin nodded. "I agree with your view."

That day, He Rui, who was thinking about the current situation in the United States, received the document sent by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Seeing that the United States was working so hard to sell grain, He Rui also found it quite amusing. Up to now, the main reason China was not in a hurry to sign was that He Rui was assessing the situation in the United States.

He Rui looked at the calendar; it was already May. He Rui instantly had a feeling of "time passing unnoticed in the mountains." Recently, researching the development of the international situation, every day was work, eating, washing, sleeping, repeating the cycle. In the blink of an eye, half a month had passed. Time passed so quickly; the summer harvest season was approaching.

Since it was time for summer harvest and summer planting, Premier Wu Youping would certainly go to inspect the summer harvest situation according to regulations. Taking advantage of the fact that Wu Youping had not yet departed, He Rui asked the State Council to send a report on this year's grain situation.

If it were before, He Rui would have directly asked people from the Ministry of Agriculture to make a report. Now, the central government's work was increasingly on track. The Ministry of Agriculture had once faced drastic changes, namely the popularization of double-cropping grain. Now that the areas where it should be popularized had mostly completed the task, it was time to hand the work over to the State Council. What He Rui needed to do was to go to the State Council if there were problems, rather than finding people directly himself.

Soon, a Department Director from the Ministry of Agriculture arrived at He Rui's side. He Rui seemed to have seen him before but had never conversed with him. He Rui felt some emotion in his heart; with the stability of the country, personnel arrangements had finally reached the current situation. Various departments already possessed the personnel authority they should have had.

In the early days, He Rui held all power in his hands, one of which was personnel power. A Department Director could not rise to the position without He Rui's review. The reason for doing so at the time was that He Rui wanted to build the country according to his own ideas. The reason He Rui no longer "held all power" now was that the country had gradually been established in the direction He Rui had set. Even if personnel power returned to the State Council, and even to the various ministries, the overall direction would run according to the national model He Rui had established.

This Director was surnamed Lü. Director Lü was somewhat agitated, and his speaking speed was relatively fast when introducing the situation. He Rui could understand completely, so he listened in silence until he heard this passage: "...It is estimated that in 1933, China's annual production of chemical fertilizer will reach 10 million tons. Newly built water conservancy facilities and the number of motorized wells can meet current grain demands."

He Rui raised his hand. Director Lü stopped immediately and looked at He Rui. He Rui asked, "In Hebei Province today, how many tons of water are extracted by motorized wells annually?"

Director Lü hurriedly flipped through the documents and quickly found the statistic. "Approximately 300 million tons."

He Rui sighed in his heart; the situation had still reached this point. Director Lü could not understand why He Rui looked somewhat unhappy and asked hurriedly, "Chairman, do you have an opinion on this kind of extraction?"

He Rui did not know how to answer. China was one of the countries with severe water shortages in the world. With 18% of the population, it possessed only 6% of the world's water resources. China's per capita water resources were only 2,300 cubic meters, one-fourth of the world's per capita level, making it one of the countries most lacking in per capita water resources in the world. Today, with severe per capita water shortages across China, there was still the problem of water resources being distributed more in the south, with northern water resources being far lower than in the south. Hebei Province's per capita water resources were less than 300 cubic meters, only a fraction of the national average and less than one-seventh.

In terms of water resources, the national per capita was one-fourth of the world average, while Hebei's per capita was one-seventh of the national average. Hebei's per capita water resources were 1/28th of the global average. The world's per capita water resources were around 10,000 cubic meters, while Hebei's per capita water resources were not even 300 cubic meters, accounting for 3% of the global per capita water resources. This was the problem of water shortage in Hebei. Yet Hebei happened to be a plain area; in ancient times, it belonged to the Central Plains and was an important grain-producing area of our country.

No matter how short water resources were, Hebei's fertile fields could not be left fallow, nor could industry fail to develop, which would make Hebei Province's water shortage problem even more serious. In the past, news about water in Hebei every year was basically like this: water shortages and drought resistance were the main themes. If surface water was insufficient, one could only demand it from underground.

"I have no opinion," He Rui sighed. This statement was certainly somewhat insincere, but it was not a lie. Currently, China's population growth exceeded 20 million every year, and this growth would not decrease in a short time but would be maintained for a period. That is to say, China's population might increase by 400-500 million in about 15 years.

The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security had made an unpublished population growth analysis report based on the census. People who had seen this report were frightened. Based on the current population number and birth rate estimates, by 1950—that is, 25 years after He Rui established the national government—China's population might reach 1 billion.

The population growing so fast could be attributed to national stability and people's lives being more affluent than before. Coupled with a low death rate and medical care covering the country, the population increased rapidly. But the food problem immediately became prominent. The grain required for a population of 1 billion was a terrifying figure, and all high-level government officials were frightened by such a number.

He Rui was truly not too afraid. Because He Rui had lived in a China with a population of nearly 1.5 billion, which was extremely developed and prosperous. That China did not lack grain, and did not even need to import much grain. Of course, the so-called "did not need much" also meant importing grain measured in tens of millions of tons. But the goal of this grain was to adjust tastes and provide feed for the breeding industry.

The reason this could be so was that after new energy made a complete breakthrough, the seawater desalination technology paired with it achieved a comprehensive breakthrough. He Rui had visited China's water transmission pipelines; that was a water transmission system stretching for thousands of kilometers. Starting from the seaside, tens of billions of tons of seawater were introduced into factories annually and desalinated using very efficient and cheap technology, separating out fresh water and various salts.

Fresh water was transported to various provinces that were once drought-stricken through a massive pipeline system, irrigating vast deserts and barren lands that were once almost impossible to plant into fertile fields. This was an irrigation area covering 3 million square kilometers. And this new agricultural model was not simple and crude flood irrigation, but a high-tech agricultural model.

Rows of solar panels erected high up had no end in sight; between the solar panels were neat crop areas. The water used to clean the solar panels periodically irrigated these drought-resistant crops. Those former sandy lands and barren drylands had undergone soil improvement, thereby producing large quantities of crops.

For such agriculture, dedicated drone systems had also been developed. These drones not only flew in the sky but also ran on the ground. Planting, management, and harvesting were all executed by drones. One person could often manage an area of several square kilometers.

Moreover, using carbon dioxide as a basic raw material to synthesize products like starch, sugar, and amino acids greatly reduced the direct demand for grain. This allowed China to completely solve the problem.

Although such technology might not enter comprehensive practical application until the 60s of this timeline, He Rui was not afraid. Since he had seen it with his own eyes, it proved that this kind of thing was completely achievable.

Director Lü saw He Rui not making a sound and became even more nervous in his heart. He asked in a low voice, "Chairman, may I continue to report?"

Director Lü had heard of many people coming to He Rui to report in the past and being questioned by He Rui until they were sweating profusely. He was very worried about whether his preparation was insufficient and he had disappointed He Rui.

He Rui put away his memories and said, "Continue."

Director Lü's report was based entirely on current affairs. From the current situation, agricultural development was very gratifying. With the popularization of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, double-cropping of agriculture and close planting had been fully popularized. The annual growth in grain output exceeded 10%. And for two consecutive years, grain output growth had reached 15%.

The upper echelons of the Ministry of Agriculture had seen the assessment report that China's population would reach 1 billion in 1950. Although they did not quote the content of this terrifying report, even if China's population increased by 30 million new babies annually, compared to the population of 650 million in 1932, the annual population growth was less than 5%, only 4.615%.

Compared with population growth, grain yield grew very fast, not only able to feed so many people but also able to improve everyone's living standards year by year.

Just when He Rui thought this report would only narrate a bright future and not discuss existing problems, Director Lü finally began to narrate contradictions and problems.

The biggest contradiction was what He Rui had heard: mainly the water usage problem. Close planting indeed greatly increased agricultural output, but at the same time, it greatly increased agricultural water consumption. The area south of the Huai River had annual precipitation of around 800 millimeters, and water usage pressure had never been great. However, in the northern regions, annual precipitation was just over 400 millimeters. The temperature had been relatively high in the past two years; although droughts occurred frequently, relatively extreme precipitation also appeared often. The Ministry of Agriculture therefore proposed a suggestion, which was to build more water conservancy facilities to guarantee agricultural water supply.

In addition to agricultural water supply, industrial water consumption and the water supply for rapidly developing cities were also competing for water use. Industry and cities were not only fighting for water with agriculture but also causing pollution problems. These were all headaches for the Ministry of Agriculture.

If ordinary people heard this, they would probably feel the sky was about to fall, or at least that China was surrounded by crises, like a pile of dry firewood everywhere, where a single spark could set the pile ablaze.

But He Rui was completely unafraid, not even particularly worried. He Rui had seen the contents of these reports in numerous historical records. What was needed to solve these problems was not sighing, nor trembling. In the production field, develop productive forces; in the social field, adjust between efficiency and fairness. From a more macroscopic field, it was to promote the development of the entire society.

The reason the New China government could show extraordinary vitality was primarily that it dared to break and dared to establish. What gave the New China government this courage, which other national governments did not possess, was the accumulation of Chinese civilization. In the long agricultural era, the historical experience accumulated by Chinese civilization meant the Chinese government did not lack courage, but lacked the ability to support this courage. So-called conservatism was not because the country had no courage, but because it did not want to artificially create social turmoil by executing policies detached from strength.

Now that industrialization had begun, constant change became actionable.

Director Lü finished his report and looked at He Rui, who still seemed lost in thought, feeling even more apprehensive. But Director Lü did not dare to interrupt. He had heard from comrades that Chairman He liked to think. He would often fall into long periods of thought. This style might not be a good thing for middle-level management; to improve efficiency, execution must be fast. Even if it was wrong, one had to do it first.

But for the leadership layer, being good at thinking was an excellent ability. And one had never heard of He Rui delaying work because of thinking. In the vast majority of experiences, He Rui was the formulator and promoter of policies that seemed most radical at the time; one had never heard that He Rui was a conservative.

Just then, He Rui asked, "I just want to ask, to what extent has research into sprinkler irrigation and drip irrigation technology reached?"

After asking such a question, He Rui felt that perhaps he was too radical. The basic cognition required to run a country lay in "any policy requires costs." Flood irrigation seemed simple and crude, but doing so was not because someone deliberately wanted to waste, but because of a very simple reason: low cost!

Sprinkler irrigation and drip irrigation were both high-tech content. But as long as this was done, one had to face high costs. Pipes entering all fields cost money; pipe installation, disassembly, and maintenance all required costs. These costs were either borne by the state or by the people. If considering that the state's money came from taxes, ultimately, it still had to be borne by the people.

But He Rui had to ask this. After more than 40 years of extraction in Hebei Province, groundwater had been cumulatively over-extracted by 150 billion cubic meters, forming seven large funnel areas with an area of about 70,000 square kilometers. What was the result of groundwater over-extraction? The first was the problem of land subsidence. If you pumped away all the water originally underground, the parts that originally had water became cavities, bearing capacity decreased, and it could induce ground collapse.

The North China Plain was the area with the most severe land subsidence in the country. In 2018, the area listed as a severe zone was 5,800 square kilometers, accounting for 99.8% of the country's severe zones. Among them, the cumulative maximum value of land subsidence in the Beijing area was about 1.2 meters; the cumulative maximum subsidence in the Tianjin area was 3.25 meters; the cumulative maximum subsidence in Cangzhou City, Hebei, was 2.50 meters; and the cumulative maximum subsidence in Dezhou City, Shandong, was 1.08 meters. Underground, more than 1 meter, or even more than 3 meters—what kind of concept was this? This was a large cavity, enough to make a car fall straight down. Such outrageous underground cavities existed in the urban areas of Beijing and Tianjin.

As a newcomer from the 21st century, He Rui had a huge reaction to this.