文明破晓 (English Translation)

— "This world needs a more advanced form of civilization"

Chapter 568 The Great Depression (8)

Volume 6: Great Depression Era · Chapter 8

Central Work Conferences were generally held in the State Council Office Building. If the meeting was convened by He Rui, it would be held at the Central Office of the Civility Party. If it was a Standing Committee meeting, it might be held at He Rui's official residence.

Foreign Minister Li Shiguang sat down in his seat in the State Council conference room and began to calculate what objections his speech would trigger later. If France insisted on increasing the size of its Pacific Fleet, China had no way to forcefully stop it. Currently, France had raised this matter with the Chinese government in a friendly manner, and Li Shiguang certainly hoped that everyone could ultimately be persuaded. After thinking it over, Li Shiguang felt that the greatest resistance might come from the Military Commission. At the State Council meeting, only He Rui from the Military Commission was present. After talking with He Rui yesterday, Li Shiguang knew that He Rui did not oppose this matter.

Having carefully sorted out the possible positions of all parties, Foreign Minister Li Shiguang felt he had nothing to worry about. At this time, everyone had arrived. Li Shiguang took a sip of hot water and focused his attention.

Generally speaking, the meeting would start with He Rui or Premier Wu Youping assigning work. If there was important work, a report would be made. If there was no important work, the leaders of various departments would raise the problems they faced. He thought the Ministry of Foreign Affairs would have priority, but unexpectedly, the first to raise an issue was Minister of Commerce Li Chenggang.

Minister of Commerce Li Chenggang's square face already looked serious, and now his expression was even more grave. Just from this expression, one could tell the problem was really important. Li Chenggang's Adam's apple bobbed once, likely swallowing saliva to moisten his throat before speaking, and then he said as calmly as possible, "Yesterday, the Soviet Union made a request, hoping to obtain a surplus worth 300 million US dollars in the next fiscal year. In the document, the Soviet Union stated that this surplus would preferably be paid to them in francs. If there aren't enough francs, they also hope that francs and Chinese Yuan can each account for 50%."

The ministers in the conference room were all energized by this question. Li Shiguang, who had little say in this matter, suspected whether the Soviet government was being a bit impatient. According to the Chinese government's prediction, the Great Economic Crisis in the US was just unfolding, and machinery and equipment prices would drop further in the future. If they could wait a bit longer, it was possible to get the lowest price.

In 1930, 300 million US dollars was indeed a large sum of money. Li Shiguang thought there might be a discussion for a while, but unexpectedly, the Minister of Finance stated, "The Ministry of Finance has assessed that the incremental demand for raw materials and equipment in the next fiscal year will exceed 1 billion US dollars. We can accept a deficit of 300 million US dollars."

After speaking, the Minister of Finance looked at the Governor of the Central Bank. Li Shiguang happened to be sitting diagonally opposite the Central Bank Governor and saw the gray-templed Governor close his eyes in thought. Li Shiguang thought the Central Bank Governor would need a few minutes to sort things out, but unexpectedly, half a minute later, the Governor opened his eyes. "50% Francs and 50% Chinese Yuan is acceptable."

As soon as this was said, most ministers looked stunned, and two ministers couldn't help gasping. Then they heard He Rui say, "Minister of Finance, please introduce the situation to everyone."

Li Shiguang immediately took out his notebook. At the same time, most ministers also took out their small notebooks; the habits of the science and engineering men in the He Rui government were immediately displayed.

"Both the US dollar and the British pound are currently on the gold standard. Currently, 1 US dollar contains 1 gram of gold. In 1929, 1 British pound contained 7.3 grams of gold. In recent months, the gold content of the British pound has begun to fall. The Ministry of Finance predicts that if the US economic crisis continues to worsen, the gold content of the British pound will fall below 4 grams per pound.

"According to this calculation, when we pay the Soviet Union in francs or Chinese Yuan, the gold content of 1 British pound equals 3 US dollars. Both the Chinese Yuan and the Franc are purely fiat currencies, and the exchange rate with the British pound is currently around 1:100. Even if the gold content of the British pound plummets, the exchange rate change of the Franc and Chinese Yuan against the British pound won't appreciate by double. I think it will appreciate by about 40%, with 1 British pound exchanging for 60 Francs or Chinese Yuan. Our exchange rate against the US dollar will probably reach around 1:20. We provide 150 million US dollars worth of Chinese Yuan and Francs, which are 3 billion Chinese Yuan and 3 billion Francs respectively. We can afford this."

Li Shiguang felt a slight discomfort on his forehead. Reaching up to wipe it, he found his fingers wet. Unknowingly, a layer of sweat had appeared on his forehead. Taking out a handkerchief to wipe the sweat, Li Shiguang felt his heart rate increase significantly. China's GDP for the whole year of 1929 was 88.5 billion Chinese Yuan. Increasing the deficit by 6 billion in one fiscal year accounted for about 6.8% of the total GDP. Even though the Ministry of Foreign Affairs didn't manage the economy, this proportion still made Li Shiguang feel immense pressure.

Since the two responsible for economic policy and currency both thought there was no problem, the matter was quickly decided. Minister of Commerce Li Chenggang would conduct further negotiations with the Soviet side. Next, it was the turn of other ministers to raise issues their departments needed to pass through the central meeting. Li Shiguang was next.

Calming down from the shock just now, Li Shiguang prepared to face the comrades' questions. Thinking of the questions he would encounter, a wave of confidence arose spontaneously in his heart. This lifted Li Shiguang's spirits, and he said confidently, "France wants to increase their naval power in the Pacific. Regarding this, French Foreign Minister Briand explained that the French Pacific Fleet is to guard against petty actions the Anglo-Saxon countries might take and to protect the trade route between China and France. At the same time, French Foreign Minister Briand stated willingness to provide warship construction technology to China and to strive for a quota comparable to the US for China in the second phase of naval treaty negotiations."

After saying this, Li Shiguang looked at the other ministers. He didn't know if his own mindset had changed, but Li Shiguang felt the other ministers didn't show unease or displeasure, at most frowning slightly, pondering what the French's true intentions were. Li Shiguang looked at He Rui and Premier Wu Youping sitting next to him. He Rui was naturally calm, and Wu Youping seemed unconcerned about this matter at the moment, seemingly having no interest.

The questions he expected to appear didn't appear at all. The ministers looked at each other for a moment, then all looked at He Rui. He Rui answered at this time, "We in China welcome all forces that maintain regional peace."

Li Shiguang knew this was He Rui's answer to the French Foreign Minister. He nodded, noted down this sentence, and closed his notebook.

Many departments encountered problems they couldn't solve on their own at the meeting and raised them at the central meeting. Hearing problems that once left ministers helpless being solved one by one, Li Shiguang was in a very good mood. In the past, everyone had to rely on He Rui to propose solutions and coordinate with various departments to overcome difficulties. With the strengthening of China's own strength and economic and trade cooperation with countries around the world, ministers could finally solve most problems relying on their department's strength. Even for difficult work points that had to be discussed at the central meeting, they could be solved with the cooperation of just one or two departments. This feeling was really very good.

Minister of Commerce Li Chenggang felt the same. After the meeting, he returned to his office feeling relaxed all over. He had his secretary inform the Soviet side to come for a meeting tomorrow. Then, Li Chenggang sat comfortably on the soft sofa and asked his secretary to invite Rockefeller over.

Soon, the secretary dialed the number and conversed with the other side in fluent Northern American accent. Before long, the secretary covered the receiver and turned to ask, "Minister Li, Mr. Rockefeller asks if he can bring other American businessmen along."

Li Chenggang answered immediately, "Tell Mr. Rockefeller that what I want to discuss with him is investment. If he doesn't mind others listening, I don't mind either."

Less than an hour later, Rockefeller appeared in Li Chenggang's office with representatives of several American giants like Morgan and Ford. It was evident that the representative of the Morgan consortium was a bit curious about Li Chenggang. Especially upon hearing Li Chenggang's fluent British accent, the Morgan representative's eyebrows raised inadvertently.

Li Chenggang was in a good mood. After inviting everyone to sit and serving tea, he got straight to the point. "Mr. Rockefeller, we agree to your investment in China. I wonder if you have any concerns now? Within the scope of my authority, I will do my best to help you."

Rockefeller had become accustomed to the frankness of Chinese ministerial officials, so he asked, "Your country's financial management laws have very strict restrictions on the inflow and outflow of funds. I also heard that your country invited French financial experts to help improve these financial laws. The Rockefeller consortium hopes to open a bank in China, and we are also willing to provide financial experts to help your country formulate laws and regulations that can help the financial industry operate efficiently."

Hearing Rockefeller actually wanted to open a bank in China, the face of the Morgan representative immediately looked a bit uglier. In the US, the Morgan consortium was the boss of the banking and financial industry. Rockefeller wanting to open a bank in China and saying it in front of the Morgan representative was bold. The Morgan representative had done his homework before coming to China; those American 'China experts' believed China was a country that highly valued order and didn't welcome those who broke the rules. The Rockefeller family was considered arrogant in the US, but unexpectedly, Rockefeller didn't show any restraint even in China.

The Morgan representative wanted to see if this Chinese Minister of Commerce would give Rockefeller a hard rebuff or a soft one. Sure enough, after hearing Rockefeller's request, Li Chenggang answered without thinking, "At this stage, China's economy is still very weak. A large amount of funds flowing quickly in and out of China will cause problems for the Chinese economy. Therefore, China will not liberalize financial controls. This is a matter of national economic security, and I will not discuss this with Mr. Rockefeller."

*Serves you right!* The Morgan representative chuckled inwardly. Only a nouveau riche like Rockefeller would be so arrogant; the Morgan consortium would never make such a stupid request.

But Rockefeller seemed not to care at all about being rejected. He just nodded and said, "Then let's start discussing cooperation issues."

Li Chenggang signaled his secretary, who immediately presented several documents. There weren't many, only four copies: one each for Li Chenggang, Rockefeller, Morgan, and Ford. The other representatives of American consortiums could only lean in to look. The Morgan representative was used to being grand in the US; he handed the document to others and signaled his accompanying secretary to take quick notes.

This cooperation plan was drafted by the Ministry of Commerce. Li Chenggang didn't look at the document but narrated directly, "Establishing a joint venture, China holds 51%, Rockefeller Company holds 35%, and the remaining 14% will be given to other European companies invited by China... In the first phase, China will build an oil field with a daily output of 20,000 tons in the Daqing area and increase the daily output to 100,000 tons within 5 years... With the completion of the first phase of the Daqing Oilfield, China will also establish a chemical base for oil refining and cracking. At the same time, China will build several other large oil fields."

The other American consortiums had no intention of intervening in the petroleum and petrochemical field, at least not in China's petroleum and petrochemicals, so they could only listen and watch. Rockefeller became somewhat excited. "Mr. Minister, have you misunderstood something?"

"Please speak," Li Chenggang replied politely.

"Has China completed oil exploration?" Rockefeller asked straightforwardly.

"Yes. Regarding the location of the oil fields, we have narrowed it down to a very small range. But these oil fields are too deep; we need equipment that can drill to 1,400 meters."

The Morgan representative was listening carefully and heard the Ford representative next to him click his tongue slightly. The Morgan representative smiled slightly without turning his head. Although the Morgan consortium wasn't in the oil industry now, they at least knew some basic knowledge. In the US, oil field locations were very shallow. At this stage, there were few oil fields deeper than 700 meters, yet China opened its mouth asking to double the depth. This made the Morgan representative feel inexplicably ridiculous.

Since the Chinese minister swore so solemnly, it meant China had the ability to explore the location of oil fields. If they had the ability to explore the exact location, even without large-scale extraction technology, they should at least have small-scale extraction technology. However, looking at the Chinese minister's attitude, it seemed China didn't have such technology.

Combined, the Morgan representative felt the Chinese minister seemed to exude the scent of a top-tier swindler. The top-tier swindlers the Morgan representative had seen could tell even a monstrous lie with an inexplicable persuasive power, moving those around them to think "maybe this is true."

Although this conversation made the Morgan representative feel he should be more cautious—after all, the Chinese government had stated its attitude that it would absolutely not use common credit collaterals like land resources or tariffs as investment guarantees—the attitude of the Chinese officials was too interesting and had to be watched continuously.

At this time, Rockefeller had finished discussing exploration with Li Chenggang. It was evident Rockefeller was a bit excited. He said, "Please allow me to consider for a while."

Li Chenggang didn't force him and turned to the other American consortium representatives. Before Li Chenggang could speak, the Ford representative asked, "I wonder how much annual oil production China has now?"

"Our Yumen Oilfield produces 400,000 tons annually. Plus the oil we import from the Soviet Union and Southeast Asia, China's total annual oil volume is between 4 million and 5 million tons."

Hearing this figure, the Ford representative revealed a polite smile. Oil consumption was the Ford consortium's strong suit. "Mr. Minister, we know China has completed the technical development of internal combustion locomotives and is using them in large quantities. Apart from the necessary usage for trains and ships annually, to what fields can China's oil production provide refined oil?"

"We can also provide kerosene, diesel, and gasoline for aviation, buses, and agricultural equipment."

The Ford representative felt Li Chenggang was a qualified minister, and a very honest one, so he put away his polite smile and asked straightforwardly, "Mr. Minister, excluding these internal combustion locomotives that must be supplied, how many civilian cars can your country provide the required gasoline for?"

"If we ensure refueling at any time, less than 20,000 vehicles," Li Chenggang answered frankly.

The Ford representative hadn't expected Li Chenggang to be so sincere. The figure of less than 20,000 vehicles was also calculated by the Ford consortium based on economic data provided by the Chinese government before coming to China. In 1929, car ownership in the US was as high as 23 million vehicles, while the total US population was only 123 million; nearly every five people had a car. China could only provide gasoline for less than 20,000 civilian cars, which meant Ford starting to build factories now was betting on China's future. This risk was really too great.

Just as the Ford representative was thinking about how to express his refusal, Rockefeller suddenly spoke up. "Mr. Minister, I've changed my mind. I will send a telegram to the domestic office in a while, asking them to immediately start shipping the 1,300-meter drilling equipment."

Hearing this, the group of American consortium representatives was stunned. Changing his mind so quickly—what stimulation had Rockefeller received? Rockefeller said calmly, "As for the contract, who should we negotiate with now? Shipping from the West Coast to Northeast China takes about 2 months. I hope to sign the contract during this time."

After finishing the working meal hosted by the Ministry of Commerce, on the way back to the hotel, the Morgan representative, who had specifically gotten into Rockefeller's car, asked, "Why did you agree so quickly?"

Rockefeller liked Chinese Hangzhou cuisine very much. He was in a happy mood at this moment, and his tone was relaxed. "If the Chinese government isn't the biggest group of swindlers I've ever seen, they are a modern government that understands economics and priorities very well. Our Rockefeller consortium also wants to enter the automobile industry. The extracted oil, after refining, can provide fuel for at least a million cars. I don't want the Ford Group to monopolize the automobile industry in China."

*So you also think the Chinese government ministers are like top-tier swindlers,* the Morgan representative grumbled inwardly. But this emotion was quickly replaced by serious thought. If the Chinese government was truly a modern and efficient government... Of course, if it weren't a modern and efficient government, China wouldn't have won the Sino-British War. Then, the Morgan consortium should indeed consider the plan to open a bank in China.

Just a few months ago, the US stock market crashed. As the boss of the US financial industry, the Morgan consortium took out 200 million US dollars to save the market at this critical moment. Although this move also led other consortiums to follow suit, the total rescue fund of less than 1 billion US dollars facing a US stock market that had evaporated over 40 billion US dollars in market value didn't even make a splash. So much so that the Morgan consortium had to announce they would never conduct such market rescue actions again. This announcement also dealt another heavy blow to US economic confidence.

*Losses within the dike are made up outside the dike.* Seeing the shrewdness and competence of the Chinese government, and the amazing confidence and courage of minister-level officials, Morgan felt that at least the Chinese upper echelon possessed that vigorous vitality that had been weakened in the American upper echelon.

*Maybe we can give it a try.* The Morgan representative had to consider such a possibility.