文明破晓 (English Translation)

— "This world needs a more advanced form of civilization"

Chapter 569 The Great Depression (9)

Volume 6: Great Depression Era · Chapter 9

"Contact the Chairman's office; I want to report something to him," Li Shiguang said to his secretary. While the secretary went to make the call, the orderly had already cleared away the tea set from the table.

Looking at the seat where British Ambassador Lampson had just sat, Li Shiguang felt that the British were really trying hard now. Just a short while ago, Ambassador Lampson had frankly expressed Britain's view: "...The British Empire hopes that after the Sino-French cooperation agreement ends, China can sign a similar agreement with Britain. The space for Sino-British cooperation is much larger than that for Sino-French cooperation. What France can give, Britain can give. What France cannot give, Britain can also give to China."

Although the Central Committee had already decided that Sino-French friendship would be one of the foundations of China's future diplomacy, Li Shiguang could still clearly feel a slight wavering in his heart. It must be said that Britain's attitude was very sincere, and the conditions offered were very tempting.

Before long, the secretary turned to Li Shiguang and said, "Minister Li, the Chairman is on the line."

Li Shiguang quickly got up and walked to the phone. Sure enough, He Rui's familiar voice came from the receiver. Li Shiguang hurried to report the latest news. He Rui on the other end listened quietly the whole time. When Li Shiguang finished, He Rui laughed. "Whatever the British say, we can just listen; no need to take it seriously. All of Britain's current promises are things they cannot fulfill."

"Is the Chairman referring to the Imperial Preference system?" Li Shiguang asked.

"Yes. Britain probably came to communicate with considerable sincerity, but just listen to their promises," He Rui replied.

Li Shiguang felt a sense of incongruity for a moment, but he didn't want to argue with He Rui, so he replied, "I understand."

"If there's nothing else, I'll hang up first," He Rui's voice came from the phone. Li Shiguang immediately stated he had no other questions for now. After putting down the phone, Li Shiguang stood up, clasped his hands behind his back, and paced slowly in the office. When he stopped, Li Shiguang suddenly laughed out loud.

Initially, it was a sneer, but after a few laughs, Li Shiguang felt it was ridiculous and couldn't help laughing heartily. Hearing the commotion, Li Shiguang's secretary hurriedly pushed the door open and entered. He saw Li Shiguang laughing back and forth as if hysterical, his whole body somewhat limp. The secretary quickly went forward to help Li Shiguang sit on the sofa, then watched worriedly as the Foreign Minister of the Republic of China, though wanting to calm down, continued to laugh ceaselessly, his shoulders heaving as if in a spasm.

Finally, Li Shiguang stopped laughing. Seeing that Li Shiguang looked a bit teary-eyed, the secretary quickly washed a towel and handed it over. Li Shiguang wiped his face seriously, then asked the secretary, "Can you associate the word 'incompetence' with Britain?"

The secretary thought for a moment and felt a bit confused. The dignified British Empire was still the world hegemon; looking at it from any angle, it had nothing to do with incompetence. If Britain were incompetent, what would other countries be?

With the secretary as a reference, Li Shiguang confirmed there was nothing wrong with his feeling just now. But Li Shiguang still wanted to do a further test, so he recounted to the secretary what exactly British incompetence was about.

The Great Economic Crisis in the US predicted by the central economic department had basically taken shape. This economic crisis would continue to develop and wouldn't end in a short time. Based on such a prediction, the economic department further deduced the subsequent impact: the great powers would adopt trade protectionism to deal with such a situation.

According to the latest news, the US was preparing to launch the *Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act* to raise tariffs. Countries would inevitably adopt reciprocal retaliatory tariffs against the US. This trade war would by no means exist only between the US and other countries but would evolve into a global trade war. At that time, the British mainland would create a trade alliance with various colonies of the British Empire to jointly resist external trade protection; this was the "Imperial Preference system" proposed by the economic department.

Even if Britain really replaced France completely at this stage as he said and reached a close economic relationship with China, the relationship between China and Britain could not reach the height of Sino-French cooperation after all. Britain couldn't possibly invite China to join the "Imperial Preference system," so everything Lampson was trying to promote now would be overturned by Britain itself as the economic situation changed. From this perspective, Britain was an incompetent bunch.

Listening to Li Shiguang's narration, the secretary's brow almost knitted into a knot. It was evident that the secretary didn't believe all this would happen. This made Li Shiguang both happy and disappointed. The reason for happiness was naturally that he had finally crossed this internal hurdle, thus being able to view the world from an angle closer to reality. The reason for disappointment was that the secretaries were all highly praised young cadres who accumulated work experience by contacting higher-level cadres through secretarial work. Looking at it now, the young cadres weren't afraid of the great powers but lacked the mindset to view the great powers as normal countries.

At this moment, the secretary summoned up courage and said, "Minister Li, Britain can indeed maintain the normal operation of its economy through the Imperial Preference system. I think Britain has chosen the correct response."

Li Shiguang felt the secretary's view was already quite sophisticated, so he pressed further, "For the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, there is no problem doing this. But for a world hegemon, abandoning all obligations as a hegemon equates to the de facto bankruptcy of Britain's hegemonic status. Britain wants to endure through the worldwide economic crisis. If other countries are dragged down, Britain will still have an advantage relative to other countries. After the economy recovers, it can rely on this advantage to continue maintaining the position of world hegemon. But Britain won't wait for such an opportunity."

"Minister Li, I'm not opposing your view. I just feel that countries around the world now lack strategists like Chairman He; they can't see the trend of future development. So they appear incompetent. After all, people die from comparison, and goods are thrown away from comparison." The secretary expressed his view very carefully.

Li Shiguang shook his head. "A first-rate strategist can make this judgment. I don't think the world lacks first-rate strategists. Britain's current performance gives me a feeling that among Britain's decision-making layer, the true first-rate strategists lack decision-making power. Those privileged classes with vested interests hold the decision-making power."

Having analyzed to this extent, the secretary felt incapable of discussing with Li Shiguang, so he could only express agreement with Li Shiguang's view.

At this very moment, inside He Rui's conference room, the French economists sent by French Foreign Minister Briand were communicating with He Rui. As soon as the meeting started, Bank of France economist François got straight to the point. "Mr. Chairman, our French financial sector has carefully studied your economic policies over the past decade or so, as well as their execution methods. Now there is a consensus in the French financial sector that you are one of the most outstanding economists in the world today."

Professionals classify He Rui into the professional field first; this is a good way to show goodwill in communication. He Rui didn't dislike this, and he really wanted to hear the attitude of the French economists, so he smiled. "Economics must be a pragmatic discipline capable of providing realistic help. I believe the French economics circle has rich experience in this."

"Mr. Chairman, analyzing other countries based on your policy of enhancing national consumption capacity, we have reached a conclusion. At this stage, the world's economic increment will be concentrated in the East Asian region. This will be the market that all countries hope to intervene in in the future." François didn't deliberately flatter at all, but only elaborated on his view.

He Rui clearly felt that the French economists had ideas. First lighting a cigarette, He Rui asked, "What proportion of the increment does France hope to share in the development of the East Asian region?"

François answered somewhat regretfully, "We understand very well Mr. Chairman's decision to diversify risks; this is a choice only an outstanding economist can make. But Mr. Chairman, all risk control has its limits. We have studied China's financial management laws and feel the dilemma China faces from them. China lacks capital and technology and hopes to utilize foreign capital and technology most efficiently. This way of pursuing efficiency will lead to many uncontrollable results. The profit from speculative funds is too large; even if much capital aims to invest in industry initially, it will turn into speculative funds later in pursuit of higher profits. We believe China's financial management hasn't prepared for this risk originating from within."

He Rui wasn't that worried. "As long as land and mineral resources remain state-owned, the impact of such speculation on the overall economy won't be that great. Moreover, we are preparing to launch a progressive tax plan to regulate the income of high-income groups. When personal income tax is high to a certain extent, the time for these funds to fully shift into the speculative field will be delayed. If they really want to speculate, they will choose other countries as speculative venues."

This was only part of the reason. The reason He Rui didn't say was that a world war would break out in a dozen years. When the country adopted a wartime mobilization state, where would there be opportunities for speculative funds?

The French experts didn't mention these. They discussed based on the progressive tax policy proposed by He Rui and believed this was indeed a reasonable practice. The Constitution of the Republic of China determined that the Republic of China was a socialist country. As a socialist country, the distribution field was not a model of the weak being eaten by the strong, but investing in low-income classes through the fiscal transfer model of taxation. This was what He Rui had said about "the state constantly raising the social bottom line."

After discussing the focus of the French experts' visit to China for a while, François smoothed his beard and stared at He Rui with his blue eyes. "Mr. Chairman, the Sino-French economic cooperation agreement needs to be renewed next year. I wonder if China has considered establishing a more effective currency and tariff cooperation system?"

The secretary beside He Rui thought the French were considering joining the East Asia + Soviet Union economic cooperation organization currently guided by China and couldn't help perking up. Then he heard He Rui answer, "At this stage, Sino-French cooperation is not directed against any third party. Does France believe there is a third party whose intentions are detrimental to Sino-French cooperation?"

The secretary's body involuntarily stiffened. If France meant what He Rui said, that was another matter. China and France were currently in a quasi-ally relationship, and the prerequisite for a formal alliance was the existence of a common enemy. At least up to this stage, China didn't regard any country as an enemy.

Hearing He Rui be so frank, François subconsciously smoothed his long beard again before saying, "Mr. Chairman, the development of East Asia in the next few years is destined to make this place a hot spot in the eyes of countries around the world. In the past nearly two years, the unemployment rate in France has dropped below 5%... Thank God, these are rare good days for the French people. Moreover, this unemployment rate below 5% was achieved with a large number of women gaining employment opportunities. Many enterprises are not only recruiting engineers and skilled workers but also recruiting many clerks. Those women with only junior high or even primary school education don't even have to go to textile factories to compete with male workers for jobs; they work as cleaners, file clerks, or serve tea and water in enterprises. Since both husband and wife have jobs, many families have now sent infants and toddlers to paid nurseries. This has further driven employment in France. At this stage, the French government faces a very big dilemma."

Having finished talking about France's employment situation, light flashed in François's blue eyes, and he added in a serious tone, "I believe an excellent economist like you, Mr. Chairman, can definitely understand this dilemma."

He Rui nodded; he certainly could understand. So he smiled. "Can we call it a Jean Valjean-style crisis?"

Although this analogy was a bit too Chinese-style, Mr. François nodded vigorously. Jean Valjean was the protagonist of Hugo's masterpiece *Les Misérables*. He once relied on the technology of producing glass beads to open a factory in a small town, employing a large number of ordinary women and people with weak labor capacity, greatly solving local employment. So much so that Jean Valjean, a released prisoner who claimed at the time that his "identity documents were burned while saving people," was elected mayor of that city.

As an old industrial country, economic crises and social turmoil were common occurrences for France. The current full employment was an extremely rare good time. At least He Rui believed that Mr. François, the economist of the Bank of France, saw the risk that the current Great Economic Crisis in the US might trigger British and American capital hoping to replace France's leading position in investment in China.

For economic development, the most important thing is confidence. If the French economy remained bad as in the previous ten years, it would just mean changing governments more frequently. Now that the French economy was sailing smoothly, almost everyone benefited from it. If France lost the confidence of domestic and foreign investors in the continued development of the French economy, the French economy wouldn't just retreat to before; France would immediately experience a comprehensive economic crisis. Combined with the currently intensifying 'Anglo-Saxon countries' economic crisis,' the French economy would be even more miserable than Britain's and America's.

He Rui didn't chime in. If the French upper echelon truly understood future economic changes from this level, they would have to take resolute economic measures for France's benefit. This economic measure also required the cooperation of the East Asia + Soviet Union economic circle. At this time, it was best for He Rui not to mention anything actively and let the French speak for themselves.

Mr. François spoke up. "France is willing to continue providing financial and technical support to China. Almost all French enterprises want to invest in industry and conduct commercial trade in China. Moreover, French financial industry peers have a consensus that China faces export pressure to repay francs. France is willing to open its market to China."

At this point, Mr. François smiled. "Mr. Chairman, you may not know. The textile industry and light industrial enterprises in France are having a hard time now. Because a large number of skilled workers and young male and female workers are trying every means to go to large enterprises, to enterprises related to machinery manufacturing. So much so that textile factories are short of workers, and even for the remaining workers, production efficiency has dropped a lot. Moreover, this has also had a somewhat positive impact: more parents no longer force their children to go to textile factories but force them to complete at least junior high or even high school education."

"Oh? I really didn't know such changes had occurred in France." He Rui looked surprised. This surprise was genuine; He Rui couldn't be bothered to care about the details within France. But He Rui could completely understand what he just heard. Textile factories and similar enterprises had poor working environments, astonishing noise, and low income. If one could find a job serving tea and water in a large enterprise or machinery manufacturing industry, the working environment would improve a lot, work intensity would decrease a lot, and wages wouldn't decrease—who would run to a textile factory to suffer?

As for forcing children to go to school, it was naturally because large companies and machinery-related industries required a certain level of education. Now that such jobs were not scarce, French parents naturally hoped their children could have a more decent, higher-income job.

François also said earlier that employment in France was quite full now. This meant labor-intensive industries were under-operating, and production efficiency plummeted. From this perspective, He Rui praised, "French economists have an admirable standard."

François nodded. "Please believe in the strength of our country's economists. We France are a civilized country with a tradition of centralization. The government will never treat economists' suggestions as nothing like the US government."

He Rui didn't discuss deeply, just nodded. France had many ways to solve the labor shortage problem; the most direct was to send people from colonies to French factories. France's model of managing colonies was to try to promote French culture locally and also provide some education. French policy didn't exclude colonial people from engaging in low-income heavy physical labor in France. By the 21st century, the skin color of the French football team was similar to that of African football teams.

François just said that the French economic circle was persuading the French government to yield this part of the light industry sector and allow Chinese goods to enter France. If the French government opposed it, François probably wouldn't dare to express this view to He Rui in that way.

In the design of Sino-French cooperation, the Chinese economic department had specifically calculated. With France's current population of 40 million, jobs in agriculture, high-tech fields, serving social operations, and high-tech fields could roughly meet the employment needs of these 40 million people.

China and France could maintain an economic model similar to China and the US in the early 21st century for the next ten or twenty years: the US providing capital and technology to China, and China providing cheap consumer goods to the US. Although the French mainland only had a population of 40 million, the consumption power of these 40 million people should be higher than the total consumption power of the entire Soviet Union now. Even in the field of cheap consumer goods, it was enough to provide millions of jobs for China, playing a great role in promoting China's industrial development.

He Rui simply praised a few words and remained silent. Because France speaking this part out meant they were one step closer to revealing their true intentions. He Rui continued to wait for France to make an offer.

"Mr. Chairman, in the past nearly two years, we have seen the construction and production of a group of heavy industrial enterprises, including synthetic ammonia, truck factories, and tractor factories. China's organizational ability and the learning ability of the Chinese people have left a deep impression on us. As long as the Chinese people receive a good education, they can become excellent industrial workers. Products of Sino-French joint ventures have strong competitiveness in the French and European markets even after sea transportation. We France are willing to cooperate fully in these commercial fields."

He Rui nodded, still silent. This condition was close to He Rui's expectations, but He Rui believed France should continue to propose areas of cooperation. Everyone was a thousand-year-old fox; don't play *Strange Stories from a Chinese Studio*. If the sincerity of cooperation wasn't sufficient, it meant they still didn't want to cooperate truly.

"China and France have built a cooperative bank responsible for financial services in the field of Sino-French investment. France believes that these cooperative banks are fully capable of providing financial services for France's colonies in Asia, the Pacific, Africa, and the Indian Ocean. If France needs to take action in these regions, based on the principle of proximity, this bank will provide financial support for nearby procurement."

François finished stating the conditions offered by France in one breath, checked his small notebook again to make sure he hadn't missed anything, and then picked up his teacup to drink.

He Rui felt that what he could consider, France had also considered. Only then did he say, "Mr. François, we in China are cooperating with the best enterprises in the world. Just as we are negotiating with the Rockefeller consortium, preparing to set up joint ventures with them in the oil sector. Since this concerns China's important resources, the Chinese government holds 51% of the shares in the joint venture, and the Rockefeller consortium will hold 34-35%. The British AP Company (founded in 1909, renamed BP Oil Company after 1935, whose most famous event in the 21st century was a massive leak in its oil field in the Caribbean Sea, polluting tens of thousands of square kilometers of sea surface), Dutch Shell Oil, and companies from other countries will all be allowed to invest. Of course, French oil companies with drilling capabilities of over a thousand meters will form joint ventures with China."

The group of French economic experts looked a bit unhappy, but no one said anything. He Rui's choice was more political than economic. Expressing China's willingness to cooperate to the world, and through this 15% share, establishing a communication bridge with the European economic circle.

François said, "I agree with China's choice. Cooperating with the world's most advanced companies can indeed greatly promote China's economic development."

He Rui liked talking to such smart people. Mr. François separated enterprises and the country very clearly, proving he could understand He Rui's choice. He Rui continued, "China's economic development space is huge. Our economic department believes that China's development space can fully meet the needs of Sino-French cooperation."

François's eyes lit up. He had spent so much effort and finally waited for He Rui to make a guarantee to France. Coming here this time, France had only one request for China: China must prioritize satisfying Sino-French cooperation. As for whether China's economic development could fully satisfy it, the result of internal French analysis, calculated conservatively, was that it could satisfy about 86% of France's needs.

Since He Rui set the tone, François immediately followed up. "Mr. Chairman, can we discuss Sino-French cooperation with the heads of these economic departments? We came to serve China. Being able to communicate frankly with these gentlemen will make our service more efficient."

Looking at the eager mood on the French side, He Rui laughed. "Haha, gentlemen, our Minister of Economy and Governor of the Central Bank have long been looking forward to meeting with you gentlemen."

"Please rest assured, Mr. Chairman, Sino-French friendship will inevitably become a model of cooperation between countries in the 20th century." François was French after all; such words came easily to his mouth.

In such a cordial and friendly atmosphere, the meeting ended. After sending these people off, He Rui sank into the sofa in a very "Yu the Great" sitting posture. It is said that because Yu the Great often went into the water when taming the flood, he got rheumatism. There is also a saying that one of his legs was injured. So, for comfort when his leg hurt, he didn't adopt the traditional kneeling posture of the time when sitting but sat on a stone or other high place with one leg crossed over the other. The legendary Li Bing and the fictional Erlang Shen also had such a sitting posture.

When the secretary came in, seeing He Rui with his legs crossed, his neatly tied tie pulled off and thrown aside, he couldn't help laughing. "Chairman, Minister Li Chenggang of the Ministry of Commerce wants to report to you."

He Rui stretched, letting out a long sigh of relief. "Then invite him to have a meal."

Watching the secretary leave, He Rui didn't notice his expression turning cold. It wasn't that He Rui acted one way in front of people and another behind their backs. He Rui was now considering France's plan. Judging from the conditions proposed by François, He Rui had to suspect that the French were not prepared to build Sino-French cooperation completely passively to deal with the economic crisis, but were prepared to take the initiative.

France clearly recognized that the East Asian region would be an area of rapid world economic development in the coming years. Rapid development meant East Asia would have huge demand. Instead of passive defense, the best way was to attack actively. Since the US was prepared to provoke a trade war with the world, France could follow the trend. After the US raised tariffs, France would not only adopt retaliatory high tariffs against the US but also adopt high tariff policies against European countries to protect the French market.

He Rui couldn't be sure if France had made up its mind yet, but after the Minister of Finance and the Governor of the Central Bank finished talking with the French economic expert group, it could be confirmed.

Thinking that the world economic crisis was about to break out comprehensively so soon, He Rui felt his mood was unexpectedly full of anticipation. The world had moved in a completely different direction, and He Rui felt nothing but anticipation.