文明破晓 (English Translation)

— "This world needs a more advanced form of civilization"

Chapter 567 The Great Depression (7)

Volume 6: Great Depression Era · Chapter 7

Night fell, and all the lights in the French Embassy came on. Amidst the lights, banners written in both French and Chinese at the embassy entrance swayed gently in the night breeze. Cars carrying a few guests were already driving out of the gate under the banner that read "The French Embassy Wishes Chinese Laborers a Happy Holiday."

Standing by the window and seeing his own car approach, He Rui raised his wrist to check his watch. Briand was somewhat surprised. "Mr. Chairman, you aren't planning to have a dance before leaving?"

He Rui replied, "I'm not in the mood for dancing tonight." After speaking, he prepared to take his leave.

Briand had intended to bring it up later, but since He Rui was leaving, he could only say, "Please wait a minute. I want to inform you that France is preparing to strengthen the power of its Pacific Fleet."

This topic was very sensitive. After Briand finished speaking, his amber eyes inadvertently revealed a nervous look, and his mustache bobbed up and down as he swallowed. War had broken out between China and France before, and Briand knew that several high-ranking generals in the current Chinese Navy had deep ties to the Nanyang Fleet, which had been destroyed by France. When analyzing the impact of this matter on China, the French side had seriously considered that these people might offer suggestions disadvantageous to France to He Rui.

Briand saw He Rui's expression change slightly. Because He Rui was contemplating this matter, his expression involuntarily became a little more serious. After a moment, He Rui asked, "What is the ratio of the scale of the French Pacific Fleet compared to the British Pacific Fleet?"

Briand exhaled, most of his unease dissipating. He immediately replied, "Mr. Chairman, it's about two-thirds of the British fleet."

"Oh!" He Rui smiled. "Britain might not object, but they will certainly feel a lot of pressure."

Briand completely relaxed. The French Ministry of Foreign Affairs had seriously considered how to discuss with China the decision to increase warships in the French Pacific Fleet, especially the addition of two battleships, and how to explain it to He Rui. The most optimistic view was that He Rui could fully understand that France's strengthening of its fleet was by no means intended to threaten China but to ensure the safety of trade routes between France and China. Now it seemed that things might really turn out in the most optimistic way.

With Briand's rich diplomatic experience, he dared not be blindly optimistic at this moment. He Rui indeed had unmatched prestige in China, but He Rui's ministers did not show the same top-tier strategic judgment ability as He Rui. Even a first-rate strategist, faced with the sudden appearance of a French fleet with two battleships in the Indochina colony right next to China, would instinctively make negative considerations. At this time, if high-ranking naval officers who did not have a good impression of France offered some negative suggestions, the head of state would inevitably make considerations unfavorable to France strengthening its Pacific Fleet.

But since He Rui had already expressed a friendly attitude, Briand could only suppress the urge to explain fully and squeezed out a smile. "Mr. Chairman, I will explain this matter in detail when I meet the Chinese Foreign Minister tomorrow."

"Alright. I'll take my leave then." After speaking, He Rui extended his hand to Briand.

When shaking hands with He Rui, Briand felt that He Rui's palm was dry and warm. Looking at He Rui in military uniform, Briand felt the pressure seemed much greater. Seeing He Rui to the door and watching his convoy drive into the night, Briand suddenly had an image in his mind. This sharp and decisive top strategist, He Rui, holding a pen with that dry and warm hand, drawing an offensive line on the map—he could probably draw an extremely stable line.

When Briand met the Chinese Foreign Minister the next day, they chatted and laughed. Based on the current good relationship between China and France, the exchange of opinions on the international situation was very smooth. When Chinese Foreign Minister Li Shiguang asked Briand, "Does France believe the US Congress and government will pass the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act?"

Briand answered immediately, "An old dog can't perform new tricks. I believe not only will the US do this, but the British government will also follow suit in the near future. I assume the Chinese government has made corresponding preparations? At least the French government is ready to make a reciprocal response at any time."

Li Shiguang appreciated Briand's frankness very much. He answered frankly, "The Chinese government is of course prepared. Based on the US attitude, we believe the US is very likely to maintain this high tariff policy for a long time."

Briand nodded. "The judgment within the French government is similar to that of the Chinese government. Moreover, the French government believes there are smooth communication channels between China and France, so such things will not happen between our two countries."

Li Shiguang nodded, agreeing with Briand's view. Subsequently, Li Shiguang listened to Briand talk about France's preparations to strengthen the Pacific Fleet. Hearing just the beginning, Chinese Foreign Minister Li Shiguang's gaze turned grim, and he couldn't help suspecting whether Briand's previous remark about "good communication between China and France" was entirely to prepare for this matter.

Briand anticipated that the level of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs was probably not as high as He Rui's. Even if the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs were truly as formidable as He Rui, as a foreign ministry, they couldn't make judgments on such issues alone. He seriously explained France's position to Li Shiguang, especially clarifying that the purpose of the French Pacific Fleet was to guard against "Anglo-Saxons tampering with the common interests of China and France in the world." Briand paused temporarily, picked up his teacup to take two sips, and took the opportunity to observe Li Shiguang's expression.

He saw Li Shiguang looking serious, not softening because of Briand's sincere explanation. Although Li Shiguang seemed to want to ask more, he still waited for Briand to finish speaking. Briand felt Li Shiguang's self-restraint was quite outstanding.

Putting down the teacup, Briand continued, "The French side not only wants to strengthen the French Pacific Fleet but is also willing to provide naval technology to China to help China build a powerful fleet. Even Japan has the Six-Six Fleet, and it is said they proposed the idea of an Eight-Eight Fleet. France believes that China having two Eight-Eight Fleets would be commensurate with China's strength. Moreover, in the next stage of naval treaty negotiations, France hopes to obtain a quota of equal scale to the US together with China. I wonder what Minister Li thinks of this."

Li Shiguang's expression finally softened somewhat. Although he had some impression of Japan's Six-Six Fleet and Eight-Eight Fleet, he wasn't quite sure. He turned his head and whispered to the secretary sitting behind him. The secretary quickly explained that the so-called Six-Six Fleet referred to the Japanese naval capital ship establishment of 6 battleships and 6 armored cruisers completed after 1905.

The Eight-Eight Fleet was the naval capital ship establishment composed of 8 battleships and 8 battlecruisers proposed by Japan in 1920.

Li Shiguang didn't speak immediately but picked up his teacup and drank, calculating the current situation in East Asia and the impact on China after France strengthened its Pacific Fleet.

In the current East Asian situation, China, as the economic core, had grasped comprehensive dominance. As early as the end of 1922, the Northeast Government went to war with Japan, exhausting Japan until it had to cease fire. afterward, China quickly unified. With the Japanese economy in depression after losing the Chinese market, no one mentioned the Eight-Eight Fleet plan anymore. After the Japanese revolution, military expansion plans were abandoned, and the so-called Eight-Eight plan could be said to have ended without a start. The current Japan, let alone building new battleships or battlecruisers, even if building a new destroyer, had to discuss it with China first. If China didn't agree, Japan wouldn't dare to start construction.

Currently, even if China's naval equipment was still weak, the Japanese Navy was not only no longer arrogant but also privately shared a view with their Chinese naval counterparts during exchanges: "If the Chinese and Japanese navies do not have a common goal, it is detrimental to the healthy development of both navies."

From this perspective, if France increased the scale of its Pacific Fleet, it was possible it would become an external driving force "conducive to the healthy development of the Chinese and Japanese navies."

After specifically asking for France's views, Li Shiguang stated, "I will convey France's message to my government."

Briand thought this wasn't a bad reaction. The worst reaction predicted by the French government was that the Chinese Foreign Minister would immediately express strong protest to Briand after hearing the news, believing France's action undermined regional peace and stability. If France acted willfully, the Chinese government would respond.

Since Chinese Foreign Minister Li Shiguang was willing to talk, this could enter the Chinese high-level meetings. Based on He Rui's reaction Briand saw yesterday, Briand believed the Chinese government would accept France's view. Because the French government really had no intention of using the Pacific Fleet to threaten China. France had already given China an interest-free loan of 20 billion francs; what would be the point of threatening China now?

After the meeting ended, Li Shiguang immediately went to see He Rui. He was soon informed he could go in. But He Rui was currently meeting with Japanese Ambassador to China Saionji Kinkazu. Walking into the conference room of the Chinese Head of State's official residence, he saw the young Saionji Kinkazu sitting cautiously opposite He Rui, carefully listening to He Rui express his views. "...After the return ceremony is over, we will arrange the itinerary for the visit to Japan."

Hearing He Rui agree to visit Japan, Saionji Kinkazu immediately said, "All sectors of my country welcome Your Excellency the Chairman's visit to Japan very much. Now the relationship between China and Japan has reached a moment where all tragedies can be resolved. Your visit to Japan will definitely open a new chapter."

Li Shiguang nodded to Saionji and sat on the sofa next to He Rui. Saionji Kinkazu continued to talk about ideas for strengthening non-governmental exchanges between China and Japan, especially academic and artistic exchanges. Li Shiguang didn't need to supervise this personally; the East Asian Department would be responsible. Looking at Saionji Kinkazu's sincere expression, Li Shiguang truly felt some emotion in his heart.

After He Rui completed his visit to Europe, Japan had proposed a request inviting He Rui to visit Japan. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs believed they could take advantage of He Rui's diplomatic success in Europe to visit Japan and define the relationship between the two countries. But He Rui believed "the time is not right; what needs to be pushed with full force now is re-determining the restoration of order in East Asia."

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs accepted the work arrangement and, after a series of arduous diplomatic efforts, restored the East Asian order to a satisfactory state. Afterward, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs discussed arrangements for visiting Japan again. But He Rui stated, "Wait a bit longer; the time is not right. Wait until the Great Economic Crisis breaks out in the US."

Last year, in October 1929, the US experienced Black Week, and the stock market crashed. After a large number of speculators died, although the US stock market index fell to an outrageous level, the US economy seemed to recover. But a few weeks ago, in April 1930, the stock market crashed again. And this crash didn't trigger a large number of speculator suicides; those real American speculators had already committed suicide. This stock market crash directly triggered the bankruptcy of a large number of American companies, or their entry into the stage of closing down. This wave of mass corporate bankruptcies was what a real economic crisis should look like.

Li Shiguang had to admire He Rui's control over the rhythm of the situation. The US had always been a quite important market for Japan. When the US fell into economic crisis and adopted the *Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act* to raise tariffs, effectively starting a trade war, the Japanese economy would truly have no other choice.

Only after the *Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act* was signed would Japan truly be compliant. At that time, He Rui's visit to Japan would make Japan truly accept China's leadership position.

Listening to Saionji Kinkazu sincerely discussing Sino-Japanese diplomatic relations with He Rui, a thought popped into Li Shiguang's mind: *Under what circumstances will He Rui visit the United States?*