V07C136 - World People's Liberation Army (3)
Volume 7: World War II · Chapter 136
**Chapter 835: World People's Liberation Army (3)**
"Do you think the Soviet Union is already unable to hold out?" He Rui asked Li Runshi.
Li Runshi shook his head immediately. "One or two technical weapons are not enough to change the overall course of the war."
"...That depends on whether there is a generational gap in equipment between the Soviets and the Germans, especially a generational gap in tactics." He Rui was somewhat hesitant as he spoke. The broad trends of history had not changed much, because the fundamental contradictions between nations had not undergone a basic transformation due to China's changes. However, China's influence had caused massive changes in many details.
Li Runshi was somewhat surprised by He Rui's words. "Chairman, surely Germany cannot decide the outcome of the war with just a few hundred jet fighters?"
He Rui sighed. "Sigh... out of personal curiosity, I actually really want to see the result."
Li Runshi found He Rui's view a bit strange, but he could understand his thinking. If a few hundred German jet fighters could completely seize air superiority in the Soviet-German war, the weakness of Soviet military power would be self-evident. Li Runshi didn't quite grasp the influence of changing military equipment on war, so he consulted He Rui: "Chairman, if jet fighters achieve overwhelming superiority, where will the greatest impact be?"
"According to my judgment, Germany could completely use 1,000 jet fighters to suppress 30,000 Soviet Air Force fighters, winning every air engagement. Compared to 6,000 propeller fighters, 1,000 jets require far less logistical material, significantly reducing the logistical pressure on the Luftwaffe. If the Wehrmacht maintains its current level of air force logistical supply, they can sustain much more powerful combat capabilities at the front. For example, they could increase the number of Stuka dive bombers. Stukas will pose a massive threat to Soviet armored units." After speaking, He Rui couldn't help but sigh softly.
By now, He Rui had completely moved beyond the mindset of watching the Soviet Union's embarrassment. However, according to his judgment, the USSR would likely not formally request Chinese aid so quickly, which would lead to even greater losses resulting from their military failures.
Although He Rui was curious about various historical possibilities, among the many discussions he had read, there was a view that the Soviet military leaders killed during the Great Purge were not actually that firm in their support for Stalin. If the war losses were too great, Stalin would face a massive backlash. If the anti-Stalin faction within the CPSU were to stage a coup, the history of World War II in this timeline would become a giant farce.
Stalin had his problems, but from a historical perspective, he was undoubtedly a leader capable of leading the Soviet Union. Once he was removed, the USSR's direction would be completely different.
Li Runshi's thinking was very sharp; after reflecting for a moment, he asked, "Could Stalin's leadership be forcefully challenged?"
He Rui could only reply, "Faced with such a colossal failure, even if Lenin were leading the CPSU, he would face strong questioning. In my personal view, Stalin's leadership remains stable. The current passive situation of the Red Army cannot all be blamed on Stalin; that wouldn't be fair. The key is whether the Soviet Union's subsequent policies can turn the tide. Comrade Li Runshi, I believe China's attitude can completely determine the outcome of the Soviet-German war. So, I want to ask you: what choice do you think China should make?"
Li Runshi fell into deep thought again, while He Rui took the opportunity to read the report on the Soviet-German war. The content was vastly different from He Rui's original history. In that history, while the Central Committee of the CPSU didn't exactly avoid the war, they at least restricted the Red Army's freedom of movement at the time.
In the current war, the Soviet Union had not undergone a Great Purge, and a large number of experienced Soviet generals were still fighting on the front lines. But their performance was no better than in He Rui's original history; the Soviets had fought some rather brilliant local engagements that caused the Wehrmacht quite a bit of trouble. He Rui felt that causing some trouble was the limit for the Soviets; the Wehrmacht's operational objectives were still being achieved. Every Soviet unit that managed to escape did so by the skin of its teeth, resolving the immediate crisis through a retreat just before being encircled.
The German attacks did not pause just because an operational objective wasn't completed for a moment; currently, the German offensive was like a Russian nesting doll—one encirclement after another. Their offensive seemed as if it would never stop; the Red Army was constantly suffering losses, and the various units were unable to receive proper supplies. Moreover, He Rui strongly doubted whether the Soviet Union's current supplies could enhance the Red Army's combat effectiveness.
As he was considering this, he heard Li Runshi say, "Chairman, I suggest we send personnel again to inquire about the Soviet Union's needs."
"Mhm." He Rui thought so too. However, He Rui always felt that sending people at this time might result in a cold shoulder from the Soviets. This was because China's air force equipment was vastly different from the Soviet Union's. Especially since China's current J-9 and J-10 fighters only had a certain advantage over German propeller fighters and lacked the capability to face German jets. If they truly wanted to help the Soviet Air Force, they would have to directly provide them with jet engines.
He Rui asked, "Comrade Li Runshi, do you think the Soviet Union will make unreasonable demands?"
Li Runshi was stunned again; he hadn't expected He Rui to suddenly worry about "face" at such a moment. In Li's view, the Soviet situation was so tense, how could they possibly still refuse Chinese help?
Of course, proactively asking the Soviet Union about its needs might indeed be seen as excessive enthusiasm. In diplomacy, such over-enthusiasm can be interpreted as a sign of weakness or having ulterior motives. Li Runshi replied, "Chairman, isn't our goal at this stage to help the Soviet Union? I don't think we have to wait for them to come begging at our door. If the situation reaches that point, would our aid even earn their gratitude? I don't think so. The Soviet Union is a great power, and a great power inevitably has its own pride. No matter how we support them, it won't change their geostrategic considerations."
"You've misunderstood me," He Rui sighed. "I'm only considering the Sino-Soviet relationship from the perspective of Soviet culture. Given their current economic level, anyone who tries to stand out must take away a portion of someone else's interests, which leads to many people wanting to see that person dead. In the Soviet Union, a person dying doesn't require someone to actively kill them; as long as it's certain they've lost the protection of a powerful force, they will die."
At this point, He Rui couldn't help but give a bitter smile. "This isn't a situation unique to the Soviet Union; it's true of any country with insufficient social resources. Even here in China, it's much the same in many fields."
Hearing He Rui talk about political economy, Li Runshi was even more puzzled. But he soon followed He Rui's train of thought. "Chairman, are you worried that after the initial failure, a Great Purge will occur in the Soviet Union?"
Seeing that Li had seen through his thoughts, He Rui replied immediately, "Yes. Our support comes from goodwill. But the internal contradictions in the Soviet Union are too intense; any Central Committee member who advocates for immediately requesting aid will become a thorn in many people's sides. That will affect the effectiveness of our support."
He Rui's explanation made Li Runshi's brow furrow. It wasn't that he couldn't understand, but he personally loathed such meaningless internal friction. He didn't even know what to say for a moment. After a silence, he asked, "Chairman, when can China move beyond such an intense stage of struggle?"
"I believe that what I can call an achievement is not the unification of China. China could not have been carved up by foreign powers; without me, He Rui, there would still be Comrade Li Runshi to unify the country," He Rui said in a level tone.
Li Runshi was taken aback; he hadn't expected He Rui to give him such a high evaluation. Although Li was a romantic by nature, he was a very pragmatic man; the praise didn't distract him from his line of thought. He asked, "What is the Chairman's true achievement then?"
He Rui's tone remained calm. "My true achievement was completing the first phase of China's industrialization. Once we win this world war, China will gain an unprecedentedly vast market. Only with a market can China's industrial system earn profits to sustain its own self-replication, self-proliferation, and self-upgrading.
However, I always feel I won't live for long. Therefore, the subsequent development of China's economy must be handled by the comrades in the Party. I'm very worried whether China's industrial capacity can continue to develop in the coming era."
Li Runshi knew He Rui was posing a question, but he stuck to his previous line. "Chairman, can the problem of insufficient domestic resources not be solved at this stage?"
He Rui explained: "At this stage, the Chinese economy is still not enough to allow every class to obtain sufficient resources. Right now, to succeed in China still requires seizing resources from many other fields, because the government's ability to serve society is still insufficient, while its ability to strike down non-central leadership forces is already sufficient.
Comrade Li Runshi, you know I have never been a friend of capital, but neither am I its enemy. I am simply a man trying to utilize capital to drive the development of productivity. I believe that after this world war ends, a comprehensive internal struggle will occur. Many comrades do not clearly realize that the targets they wish to strike are not actually the source of what is called 'evil.' Many unpleasant social phenomena are merely the result of capital's power in China growing stronger.
I certainly don't believe everyone is a good person, but many do wrong not out of a desire for evil, but because the capital operation model they rely on must operate according to a certain pattern to obtain maximum profit.
Just like the internal struggle in the Soviet Union today. I believe every Soviet leader involved in the struggle wants the USSR to be better, but with their current capabilities, they can only achieve the route they desire by seizing resources held by others and running them themselves."
"I believe the Soviet Union's ability to provide social services is very strong," Li Runshi offered a subtle disagreement.
He Rui countered, "With over 70% of our population now having become industrial, is our ability to provide social services weak?"
"...Does the Chairman believe this problem is not related to the war, but is a matter of the nation's system?" Li asked.
He Rui nodded. "As long as we can enhance effective social service capacity, China cannot fail. But even if China wins the war, it doesn't mean no problems will arise in the subsequent industrialization. Because China has now assumed the position of world leader, we will encounter more and more complex problems. This requires the government to be able to provide even more powerful social services. I believe this will be a very serious test for you.
I emphasize once more: we are not the friend of capital, nor are we its enemy. we are simply using capital to drive the development of productivity. In this process, there will surely be a large number of vicious incidents that make one's blood boil. Whether one can grasp the core of the issue is the key to solving it.
The means to solve these problems is definitely not a simple piece of paper ordering certain industries to close. The greater the influence of capital in the nation, the more people will suffer from capitalist alienation. What we must provide are social services—a better way of life. Providing a completely new way of life for the people will be extremely difficult in the future informationized world. In that era, the people can obtain immense resources from new communication tools; even before the government receives local news, it will have already spread. At that time, the difficulty of social management and service will be beyond anything imaginable today."
Li Runshi felt that He Rui was seeing the world with a vision that pierced the future. But he was not afraid of such challenges. He replied, "Chairman, I hope to hear your description. But isn't the current task discussing whether to aid the Soviet Union?"
Seeing that Li had seemingly had enough, He Rui shifted the subject. "The reason I have reservations about proactively aiding the Soviet Union is my concern that our aid will exacerbate their internal contradictions. When the Soviet Union proactively requests help, it will mean a consensus has been reached within their leadership. Then our help won't cause excessive negative impact."
"Is the Chairman certain that an intense struggle will break out within the Soviet Union?" Li pressed.
He Rui shook his head. "I'm only raising my concern through an understanding of Russian culture. It's not that I've obtained accurate intelligence on their internal conflict. Personally, I truly hope no problems arise within the Soviet Union."
Li Runshi nodded slightly. "If that's the reason, I support the Chairman's view. Then, Chairman, regarding China's future development: I believe that after the world war ends, the massive demobilization and the disappearance of large military orders will have a significant impact on China's economy."
Seeing Li return to the previous discussion, He Rui was pleased. He lit a cigarette and replied, "Those affected will be the enterprises that use a large amount of specialized equipment—those whose assets are entirely geared toward military gear. Based on the data I've seen, the scale of these enterprises is not large. Even if there is an impact, it won't be that great. As for enterprises originally engaged in military production, the problem can be solved through conversion to other products.
Regarding the problems caused by large-scale demobilization, reports show quite a few people aren't comfortable with being part of the industrial population. They will likely leave industrial production once the war ends—either returning to the countryside or shifting to other fields, such as the service industry.
The problem we will encounter in the industrial field will be the greatly increased proportion of imports and exports in the domestic economy, impacting the existing economic structure.
The problem we will encounter in the economy will be the terrifying impact on our current structure after the Chinese Yuan completes its second stage of currency revolution.
Once China becomes the core of the world economy, two Chinas will appear. One will be the China of the mainland, and the other will be the China of the world. Initially, these two will appear to merge perfectly. As the world economy develops rapidly, the 'Global China' will have to provide financial services to the world. Comrade Li Runshi, do you remember Morgan's description of the contradiction between finance and physical production in 1930?"
Li Runshi thought for a moment and couldn't help but smile. "Morgan believed that the development of the finance industry would make the profits from physical production seem insignificant. In such a situation, asset prices would skyrocket, forcing physical production to succumb to the financial sector. When funds all entered the financial sector, the Great Depression broke out."
He Rui sensed from the answer that Li was still preparing to establish a socialist pricing system, so he continued: "Once the level of industrialization reaches a certain point, the nation's operation must completely shed the model of an agricultural society. At that point, the model driving the Chinese economy will become debt- and risk-driven. Developing more advanced technology and providing products that make life more convenient requires taking enormous risks. The state's ability to bear risk is limited, so a vast amount of risk must be borne by social capital. Comrade Runshi, what do you think those who bear these risks seek?"
"...Immense returns," Li replied.
"If we can enter this stage, it means China's government governance and social service capabilities have reached an extremely high level. And China can earn super-profits through providing financial services to the world. Compared to the risks of industrial development, in which direction do you think the people will invest their wealth?"
This time Li Runshi didn't answer immediately. He knew people would invest their money where the returns were greater. He could still accept companies taking great risks to develop new industrial products and earning super-profits at a certain stage. But earning super-profits *only* through financial operations was, in Li's view, a kind of evil. This mode of making money would corrode the foundation of a socialist nation.
After reflecting for a long time, Li asked He Rui, "Chairman, is there no other solution?"
"I certainly don't want China to eventually become a financial empire. However, I likely won't live to see that day. Until the specific problems occur, I can't conjure an enemy out of thin air. After all, the West has finance with Western characteristics, and China will have finance with Chinese characteristics. The experience I've gained through observing Europe has a high probability of not being applicable to China."
"Does the Chairman have a vision that would be more favorable for China?" Li continued to ask.
"A more favorable model would be China actively conducting a certain amount of technology diffusion, enabling nations around the world to develop their economies in ways suited to their own circumstances. While maintaining the world's largest industrial system, China would not pursue super-profits. Only if the world economy as a whole is strong enough can China's complete financialization be curbed."
After stating his vision, He Rui couldn't help but laugh. "Haha, but if this line of thought were known to the comrades, they might consider me a traitor."
Li Runshi did not laugh. He pondered He Rui's proposed line of thought, feeling it seemed logical, yet also potentially very problematic. As for what the problem was, Li could not yet figure it out.