**Chapter 815: Empire's Survival (3)**

Stalin habitually demanded that his subordinates complete their tasks and rarely offered them explanations. However, Kirov's question fell within the bounds of what Stalin permitted, though Stalin did not answer with his own judgment on Germany. This was because the current state of the Soviet Red Army didn't yet allow him to form a definitive conclusion.

To Stalin, the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact was a tool—a tool used to safeguard the Soviet Union's peace at this stage. In his heart, Stalin hoped to defeat Germany, thereby gaining control over all of Eastern Europe and securing Central Europe as a bridgehead into Western Europe.

On paper, the military strength of the Soviet Red Army was formidable. In the descriptions of some Red Army generals, the Red Army was sufficient to defeat Germany. Simultaneously, in the descriptions of another group of generals, the Red Army was rife with problems and insufficient to defeat the Wehrmacht. This superposition of "capable yet incapable" left Stalin unable to make a clear judgment.

Seeing that Stalin remained silent, Kirov knew his question had been somewhat inappropriate. Attitudes toward war within the Politburo of the CPSU were not unified—or rather, they were very much unified. All Politburo members wanted victory. Therefore, some members believed the current strength of the Red Army could defeat Nazi Germany, while others believed it was insufficient. In Kirov's view, a consensus had already formed within the Politburo to go to war with the Fascist bloc. As for how the war would turn out, Kirov wasn't sure; he simply felt that past standards could no longer be used for evaluation.

While Kirov was reflecting, Stalin asked: "Kirov, do you think Germany believes it can defeat us?"

Kirov organized his response with moderate language: "General Secretary, with the drastic changes in military technology, past standards can no longer be used to evaluate the current situation. Before the Western European campaign, no one expected Germany to possess such formidable combat power. Before China went to war with Britain and America, no one expected the Chinese Navy to possess such powerful strength. Germany likely believes it can defeat the Red Army."

Stalin was struck by Kirov's words. The Red Army General Staff hadn't been able to accurately predict any war since 1939. Before Germany's campaign to eliminate Poland, the General Staff believed that a million-strong Polish army could hold out for six months. Before the Western European campaign, they believed the Germans would again turn the war into a war of attrition like the First World War. Before the Pacific War broke out, they believed the Chinese Navy would face an extremely difficult time against the British Navy.

At this stage, Stalin was no longer willing to pay attention to the General Staff's predictions of a Soviet-German war, yet he was forced to focus on the conflicting assessments within the Red Army.

"Kirov, where do you think the problem lies?" Stalin asked his most trusted and close comrade.

Kirov did not fear Stalin's anger and replied bluntly: "General Secretary, to date, although the Red Army has kept pace with the direction of change in military development, it has not developed its own military-technical understanding. Thus, while the Red Army has followed the general direction, it is lost on its military path due to a lack of supporting military theory."

After giving this blunt evaluation, Kirov watched Stalin's expression. Stalin continued to smoke his pipe calmly, though his teeth bit down on the stem a bit harder than usual. This proved that although he was displeased, he could continue listening.

Kirov then added a gentler assessment: "General Secretary, the comrades in the Red Army have worked very hard. But in the field of military development, perhaps because they are too eager to create a military theory that belongs entirely to the Red Army, they cannot fully absorb new views from the frontier of world military thought."

"...For example," Stalin asked in a somewhat cold tone, then began to smoke again.

"I recently read the collected military papers of He Rui that were compiled within the Red Army. Looking at the Red Army's annotations on these papers, as early as his 1926 article 'The Exchange of Time and Space on the Battlefield,' He Rui had already elaborated on the core concepts and operational modes of air-land integrated warfare," Kirov gave an example.

"1926..." Stalin put down his pipe, a ghost of a smile on his face, a dangerous light flashing in his eyes.

Kirov knew that Stalin judged comrades by KPIs: if they couldn't do it, they had to go; if they refused to go, they were purged. This ruthless method was why Stalin was known for ruling with an iron fist. Kirov didn't want Stalin to use a "settling accounts after the fact" mode against the Red Army leadership, so he continued: "Comrade Stalin, I believe at this stage, we must choose a military philosophy and complete our mode of warfare with that philosophy at its core. Previously, there was a major adjustment within the Red Army because the results of the route execution did not meet expectations, and then another major adjustment for being too conservative. If external conditions force the Soviet Union to choose war, please decide on the Red Army's military philosophy as soon as possible, or at least its mode of warfare."

Hearing Kirov's words, Stalin momentarily felt an impulse to put Kirov in charge of the Red Army's military development. But he quickly suppressed it. Kirov's job was to serve as Stalin's deputy, helping him complete the Soviet Union's economic construction. To put it more bluntly, the Central Committee believed the Red Army's frontline combat units were about 6 million strong; Stalin and Kirov had to complete an economic system capable of providing sufficient logistics for these 6 million.

The "major adjustment because results did not meet expectations" Kirov referred to was Marshal Tukhachevsky's idea of building a powerful Red Army with strong offensive capabilities by equipping it with advanced technical weaponry. When Stalin supported Tukhachevsky in building such an army, he had made massive investments in heavy industry.

As it turned out, even after the Soviet Union completed its Second Five-Year Plan, its heavy industry still couldn't support such a Red Army. Moreover, while Tukhachevsky was well-suited to be a military academy commandant, he was not suited for the specific work of building the Red Army. During the years Tukhachevsky had a free hand, he first tried to build a Red Army without new equipment based on his military vision, making the units wait for the equipment. This approach directly created a Red Army that was out of touch with reality. According to a Central Committee investigation, the grassroots Red Army units at that time hadn't even learned how to dig trenches for a modern defensive system. That was why Tukhachevsky had been removed.

The "backlash from conservative forces" Kirov mentioned referred to the removal of General Zhukov. Stalin knew that Zhukov was largely a scapegoat, because what Stalin had expected was for the Red Army to reasonably summarize and organize the work Tukhachevsky had already completed, retaining the excellent parts while compensating for his shortcomings. Instead, the CPSU's traditional "campaign-style" way of doing things turned into first striking down Tukhachevsky and completely negating all his work. To stop such destructive behavior, Stalin had to intervene and reorganize again.

After a period of relatively peaceful reflection, Stalin felt in a good mood. With such an outstanding comrade as Kirov for a deputy, Stalin felt he was no longer alone. Driven by this emotion, he asked: "Kirov, He Rui has suggested that we prepare for war with Germany. For what reason do you think he did so?"

Hearing Stalin ask for an analysis of He Rui, Kirov felt as if a great mountain had been pressed onto his heart. Over the past twenty years, as Sino-Soviet relations—especially trade relations—had grown closer, Kirov increasingly wanted to understand He Rui to predict China's strategic decisions and policy-making. In the process of studying He Rui, Kirov went from being baffled at first, to being strongly opposed later, to feeling he could use He Rui's theories to explain his decisions, to his current feeling of inferiority. Though he never dared say it, Kirov truly believed no one in the CPSU reached He Rui's level.

Analyzing He Rui's past decisions, one could argue he was a bourgeois reformist, or at least a "capitalist roader" among socialist revolutionaries. But He Rui's decisions differed from Soviet policies. Soviet policies were designed to achieve a fixed goal; for instance, if in 1941 Soviet steel production was to reach 18.4 million tons, industry would be planned and allocated to achieve that exact figure.

He Rui also had Five-Year Plans with mandatory regulations, but overall, what He Rui mastered was the direction of change. He Rui's policy was to invest China's resources into a certain direction; making the nation develop rapidly in that direction was his method of governing.

Comparing the two countries, Stalin built reservoirs containing exactly as much planned water for national use. He Rui, however, mastered a constantly changing river, using its water to meet the nation's needs. Stalin's iron fist was used to manipulate the state to achieve goals; He Rui's was to keep the state running within the direction he prescribed.

Judging from the difficulty of the two modes and the construction achievements of both countries, Kirov believed China was clearly more successful and He Rui clearly more outstanding.

This wasn't to say He Rui was smarter than Stalin or the Chinese Civilization Party more capable than the CPSU. Rather, mastering the direction of development required a clear theoretical guidance and precise judgment of the development process. More bluntly, before mastering the river, He Rui had to have a clear understanding of it. Although Kirov didn't know how the He Rui government managed this, judging by the results, he admired their achievements to date.

Knowing he was not He Rui's equal, the pressure in Kirov's heart was soon released. He analyzed based on his understanding of He Rui: "General Secretary, the suggestion He Rui proposed must be most beneficial for China. And He Rui surely knows that the Soviet Union will definitely make the decision most beneficial to itself. Therefore, He Rui must have made judgments on whether the Soviet Union would accept this suggestion. If we accept China's suggestion and adopt a defensive mode, we indeed have a high probability of defeating a German offensive. If we don't, and if we are attacked by Germany, we won't hold a grudge against China."

Stalin's eyes brightened. He picked up his pipe again and began to pack it with tobacco. Kirov knew Stalin's only hobby was this smoke, so the only personal items he paid attention to were his pipes and tobacco. As for food, clothing, and housing, Stalin's level was no different from that of the ordinary Soviet people—perhaps even a bit lower. At least an ordinary Soviet person's bedroom was more comfortable than the office Stalin lived in year-round.

Kirov paused for a moment, allowing Stalin to think while he packed his pipe. Stalin caught the key point Kirov intended: "China believes Germany *will* attack the Soviet Union." This judgment explained some of Stalin's previous questions—for instance, why Germany was now expressing serious concern to the Soviet Union regarding the possibility of an invasion of Iran.

China and Germany were ten thousand miles apart, and China's stance on a Soviet-German war would certainly differ from the Soviet Union's. The Soviet Union was anxious about the war, while China was only concerned about whether it would break out. Thinking about it this way, the US sending Hopkins to Moscow was also to determine whether the Soviet Union would proactively find a way to resolve a potential Soviet-German war.

From the perspective of both China and the US, they believed the risk of war between the Soviets and Germans was extremely high, and that both sides had the intention to fight. However, their interests differed; based on their respective national needs, neither China nor the US wanted a Soviet-German war to break out.

China didn't want it because they didn't want to exhaust their own strength over such a war. The US didn't want it because they didn't want the Soviet Union to join China's side once it broke out.

Thinking of this, Stalin felt somewhat displeased. He lit his pipe and, after a puff, asked: "Kirov, do you think it would be more beneficial for the Soviet Union to cooperate with the United States?"

Kirov sensed that Stalin had moved beyond his initial confusion and was beginning to consider the issue from a higher strategic level, which made him truly happy. Suppressing his joy, Kirov replied: "General Secretary, if the United States can truly cooperate with us, such cooperation would be more beneficial to the Soviet Union. What is worrying is that once the Roosevelt administration is defeated, such cooperation might fail. Therefore, at this stage, we must establish a cooperative relationship that transcends our governments—a stable cooperation between the two nations."

Hearing Kirov's words, Stalin felt he fully grasped Hopkins' potential purpose for visiting. But at that thought, a sense of resentment arose in his heart. He took another puff and asked: "Kirov, do you think Roosevelt has that kind of political understanding?"

Kirov heard Stalin's dissatisfaction, but having seriously studied He Rui, he had a clearer sense of the world's heroes. He Rui was a human, and as a human, he didn't possess abilities beyond human capacity. No matter how outstanding he was, he was still limited by human possibilities. Even if there was a gap with He Rui, the world's outstanding figures wouldn't be too far behind him.

A figure like Roosevelt, who could stabilize the United States from the impact of the Great Depression through the New Deal, would certainly not be too far behind He Rui.

With this in mind, Kirov replied: "General Secretary, I expect Roosevelt's political wisdom to reach the level you expect."

This answer pleased Stalin. He smoked his pipe, his mind quickly organizing the situation based on Kirov's line of thought. Soon, he elevated his judgment of the situation to a higher level. For a long time, Stalin had wanted to escape the subordinate position in the Sino-Soviet trade relationship—even if he couldn't reach a dominant position, he wanted at least to escape dependence on China's industrial system.

Stalin always felt the Red Army's military judgments were inaccurate; in Sino-Soviet trade, his own judgments had also been far from reality. After World War II broke out, Stalin thought the Soviet Union could take advantage of China's entry into the war to escape dependence on its industrial system. Instead, China hadn't even conducted a general mobilization against Britain and the US. They had sustained the war just by increasing taxes.

What puzzled Stalin even more was that Sino-Soviet trade hadn't been affected at all. China's light industrial production was sufficient; the quality of light industrial goods hadn't even declined due to many factories providing supplies for the war.

Conversely, to complete the Third Five-Year Plan, the Soviet Union's industrial and urban populations had greatly increased. The Soviet Union actually had to import more light industrial goods from China to meet market demand.

Thinking of this, Stalin couldn't help but say: "Kirov, we need to use the simultaneous existence of China and the US to balance."

Kirov immediately replied: "General Secretary, we can absolutely pressure Germany by balancing our relations with China and the US. If this balance is handled well, the Soviet Union can prevent Germany from launching an offensive and, together with China and the US, form the foundation of a New World Order."

Stalin was deeply struck by Kirov's words. But having been General Secretary for so many years, he didn't show it. He simply nodded and tapped the ash from his pipe. "Kirov, go get some rest. Tomorrow you have to report to the Politburo on the situation in the West."

Kirov lay down on the bed in Stalin's office and was soon asleep. Stalin, however, couldn't sleep. He lay there for a while, still completely awake. He lit another pipe and pondered the "USSR-US-China" triangle Kirov had proposed.

Although Kirov, as Stalin's recognized deputy and future successor, should have had an international strategic vision, its depth exceeded Stalin's imagination. Especially since Kirov's view actually came from a misunderstanding of Stalin's own thoughts.

What Stalin had thought was first using US technology and capital to balance the influence of Chinese goods within the Soviet Union. But Kirov understood it as Stalin wanting to use the Soviet Union to balance China and the US, hence his proposal for a "USSR-US-China" relationship.

From Kirov's words, Stalin saw that this triangle was not one of simple allies or simple opponents, but a complex relationship of mutual restraint and cooperation, possessing the flavor of the balance of power between Great Powers in Bismarck's era.

After thinking for a while, Stalin couldn't imagine what the basis for cooperation between the three nations would be. But he was attracted by the suggestion. China claimed to be establishing a New World Order, and the US was the world's most powerful industrial nation; if the Soviet Union could stand on equal footing with them, it would undoubtedly be a huge boost to its international status. It would not only give the Soviet Union the preeminent position in Europe but also make it a truly global power.

As he thought, Stalin gradually fell asleep. In his dreams, he was presiding over a victory parade in Berlin. At the moment the Nazi flag fell from the heights, the dreaming Stalin dimly realized one thing: the Soviet Union had finally surpassed Germany, treading its powerful rival underfoot. From then on, Germany would never again be able to stand on equal terms with the Soviet Union.