Intermission Talks (6)
Volume 7: World War II · Chapter 79
Li Runshi lit a cigarette. Reichenau, catching the scent of the smoke, frowned slightly but maintained his politeness, showing no sign of displeasure. Reichenau was a sports enthusiast; in his youth, he had joined the Berlin Sports Club as a Guards officer and was particularly skilled in javelin and discus, gaining fame for his excellent results. He had little interest in smoking.
Li Runshi offered one to Professor Karl. Smelling the Manila tobacco, Professor Karl accepted and lit it. Amidst the fragrant smoke, Li Runshi explained, "Where do correct ideas come from? They come from three kinds of social practice: the struggle for production, the class struggle, and scientific experiment. To a large extent, they are derived from the summation of failed practices."
Professor Karl and Professor Zhao Tianlin both nodded slightly upon hearing this description. Reichenau's expression remained unchanged, but internally, he also strongly agreed with Li Runshi's view.
"Every country draws lessons from its own history. China is like this, and so is Germany. The centralization of the Nazis aims to solve the acute contradictions Germany faces by improving efficiency. In an era of unprecedentedly acute contradictions, this is an effective solution. The Chinese government does not criticize Germany's centralization.
"However, while Germany's current policies seem to be solving its economic problems, the issues of Germany's raw material supply and market demand have not been resolved. With the liberation of all colonies in the world, Germany's problems will erupt again.
"Professor Karl, let me ask a question. Will Germany treat Black people as equal, respectable human beings just like Aryans?"
Professor Karl did not answer immediately. He wanted to cite Germany's respect for He Rui as an example of Germany respecting other races. But Professor Karl knew this would be sophistry. Nazi Germany's policies determined that they did not consider the Chinese to be a great nation equal to the Aryans. The so-called respect for He Rui was merely awe of China's powerful military strength, and the fact that Germany could not erase the strength He Rui displayed in political, economic, and military fields. Thus, they were forced to respect such powerful strength.
As for Black people, they were even less within the consideration of Nazi Germany's policies.
After pondering for a moment, Professor Karl shook his head.
Li Runshi continued to explain, "Since Germany regards the people of future independent nations as inferior races, on what basis does Germany think it is qualified to demand equal trade with these countries?"
Hearing this, an impulse for military confrontation instinctively rose in Reichenau's heart. But Reichenau did not speak, because he understood the military implications of the new world order China was establishing. If these countries were unwilling to trade with Germany, leading to a German invasion, China would immediately go to war with Germany. As the leader of the new world order, China had the responsibility to maintain the security of that order.
"With the liberation of the world, Germany will become increasingly unable to maintain its current economic situation. According to Germany's current policies, it is inevitable that Germany will launch a new war to solve its economic problems. Not just Germany; Europe and America have numerous historical success stories of exporting domestic contradictions abroad. How can path dependence accumulated over hundreds of years be so easily changed?" After Li Runshi finished speaking, he flicked the ash from his cigarette and looked at Professor Karl.
Professor Karl had long completed his analysis of the political and economic logic behind this. Hearing Li Runshi explain it so clearly, he said somewhat helplessly, "Mr. Li, China will pay a huge price for this!"
"That doesn't sound like something Professor Karl should say." Li Runshi said with some regret, "Professor, the price China will pay is not as great as you imagine. Before China launched the War of World Liberation, the colonies of the world were already yearning for liberation! Over a billion oppressed people around the world yearn for liberation, yearning to be freed from the fate of being killed, exploited, and discriminated against. China is not launching a war, but answering the longing of these billion-plus oppressed people.
"Let's do a simple calculation. Germany is an industrial nation with very high mobilization efficiency. Judging from the experience of the First World War, after total mobilization, Germany can send 20% of its population to the battlefield. The mobilization capacity of the people in oppressed regions of the world is far inferior to Germany; we believe they can only send 1% of their population to the battlefield.
"So, even if there are only 1 billion oppressed people in the world, 1% is 10 million. We in China have the ability to provide sufficient training for this 10 million-strong army, provide them with first-class equipment, and provide an adequate officer training system. The Asian Alliance can also provide an army of over 10 million. Added together, that is 20 million well-equipped, well-trained troops capable of sustaining high-intensity and high-severity warfare for a long time.
"So, how much mobilization and projection power do Europe and America need to send 20 million troops to the battlefield to suppress the liberation of the world's people? Even if everyone trades lives one-for-one until they are gone. Which country in Europe or America is willing to take on the role of the main force of suppression?
"I assumed earlier that the mobilization power of the liberated countries is only 1%. What if, with the completion of social revolution, the mobilization power reaches 2%? That would be another 20 million troops. Can Europe and America, having already lost 20 million people, produce another 20 million?"
Professor Karl's face turned a bit pale. He felt a firm will and unwavering determination from Li Runshi. More importantly, strategically, Li Runshi's description of the oppressed people was a reality that was entirely possible.
Reichenau's expression finally changed. As a soldier, he was sensitive to military losses. The 20 million troops in the first phase described by Li Runshi would inevitably be the elite of Europe and America. Once this group died, no matter how long Germany's military tradition was, the combat effectiveness of the army mobilized afterward would inevitably drop drastically. Even if the scale remained the same, the war capability would plummet.
According to the experience of the First World War, if Germany really had 5 million soldiers killed in action and had to conscript another 5 million, the German domestic economy would collapse directly. If a second wave of 5 million died again, the German nation would not recover for the next 100 years.
And what these highly valuable Germans would be facing were "inferior races" with a population dozens of times that of Germany. Germany's losses would seem worthless no matter how you looked at it. But if Germany couldn't even defeat the inferior races and was forced to accept a world order established by them, what qualification did Germany have to call itself a superior race?!
A wave of anger boiled in Reichenau's chest, so much so that he couldn't help but speak up, "War is not won by numbers alone. War requires a feasible strategy and outstanding commanders. If Mr. Li is confident in war, would you allow me to conduct a strategic wargame with you?"
Li Runshi had long anticipated that he might encounter such a challenge. When Reichenau proposed it at this moment, Li Runshi readily agreed. Soon, maps and blackboards were set up, and the Vice Chairman of the Chinese Civilization Party's Military Commission began a military exchange with the Field Marshal of Nazi Germany.
Professor Karl, as a former Major General, also helped on the side. Zhao Tianlin, as a great scholar, set the rules first: "If the wargame turns into a discussion of army group confrontations, I think it would be a good choice not to argue."
Almost simultaneously, Professor Karl and Marshal Reichenau nodded in agreement. Both had very high levels of strategic understanding and knew clearly that correct strategy was the core. As long as the strategy was correct, even if a lack of campaign execution ability by some generals led to losses at the army group level, losing one army group and forming two more would suffice. But once the strategy was wrong, no matter how many battles were won, the ultimate result would be failure.
Seeing that both Germans agreed to his request, Zhao Tianlin sat aside and watched quietly. However, the strategic wargame did not start with how to fight battles, but with how to operate the government, how to establish a mobilization system, and how to conduct troop training, equipping, and deployment.
Zhao Tianlin was He Rui's early comrade and comrade-in-arms, with rich work experience. Listening to the discussion between the high-level officials of China and Germany, a profound sense of nostalgia rose in his heart. This was the path he had walked together with He Rui back then.
Professor Karl and Reichenau grew more alarmed the more they chatted. Li Runshi opposite them was undoubtedly an outstanding statesman, military strategist, and grand strategist. His understanding of economics and politics was extremely profound. How to implement liberation policies in colonies, how to quickly establish order and systems in colonies, how to organize armies based on local economic conditions, and how to use these armies—Li Runshi's description was extremely actionable, definitely not armchair strategizing.
Moreover, many figures Li Runshi mentioned casually opened the eyes of Professor Karl and Reichenau. The description of these key figures coincided with the data collected by the German government and the German General Staff, and could even link the contents of many German military and government reports into a single thread.
Reichenau's brow furrowed involuntarily. He was certain that everything Li Runshi had said earlier was no joke. Although the figure of 20 million World People's Liberation Army troops was indeed a bit exaggerated, the judgment of maintaining combat operations with over 16 million troops was very actionable.
China and Japan could provide 8 million troops to shoulder the burden of battles requiring the highest technology and tactical skills. The 8 million colonial troops would serve as line-filling units and peacekeeping forces. The vast liberated colonies were fully capable of providing forward bases and a portion of material supplies for the front lines.
In the First World War, the soldiers killed in action from both the Allied and Entente Powers totaled only 9 million, and they really couldn't go on fighting. This time, even including the United States, if Europe and America had 16 million troops killed in action, they definitely wouldn't be able to continue either.
At this stage, China would have already liberated Asia and Africa.
Li Runshi emphasized from a strategic perspective: When Asia and Africa were both liberated, Europe and America's sources of raw materials would suffer a devastating blow, and their markets would also be severely set back. Europe and America, unable to sustain their own economies, would absolutely not die down and would inevitably continue to fight.
Reichenau had to admit this fact. But after 16 million deaths, if Europe and America still wanted to fight, it meant that the white world would have to maintain the war at the cost of national foundations that would be extremely difficult to recover in the second phase of the war. If another 16 million troops died, the vitality of Europe and America would be exhausted, unable to recover for decades.
Of course, Reichenau had realized a more terrifying outcome. That was the war entering a third phase. Europe and America, with their vitality exhausted, would face millions of swarming troops. By then, the manpower of European and American countries would be depleted, and their economies collapsed. With such weak strength, they simply could not resist. They could only let China occupy them completely.
If it were just China occupying Europe and America, that would be one thing. But when Reichenau thought of the World People's Liberation Army containing at least several million Black people, and these Black people destroying German cities as victors, parading arrogantly through German towns and villages where few men remained, his head buzzed. This scene was more terrifying than the end of the world!
If he wanted to be shameless, Reichenau could actually steer the discussion to the operational level. But as a Marshal, Reichenau held onto his dignity and refused to do such a thing. When the wargame of the North African campaign was completed, and Li Runshi proposed China's subsequent strategic arrangement—cutting off maritime transport between North America and Europe so that both Europe and the United States could only fight with local resources—Reichenau stood up, said "Let's end it here," and turned to leave the living room.
The German Marshal felt exhausted, but strong emotions surged in his heart. He walked aimlessly in the hotel corridor, and for some reason, kept following the stairs upward. Unknowingly, he arrived at the rooftop terrace of the hotel.
The city of Colombo was built right next to the harbor and had now been liberated by China. In the distance over the harbor, formations of fighter jets flew by from time to time. Beneath the sky, ships moved in and out of the port. It was as if no war had ever happened here.
On the streets beside the hotel, although there were soldiers coming and going, the dark-skinned locals still lived very normal lives. Vendors shouting their wares along the street, workers transporting goods, and all sorts of people walked peacefully on the streets.
Reichenau immediately recalled Li Runshi's confident attitude: China was not another colonizer, but a liberator. Under China's leadership, the colonies would no longer be exploited and sucked dry, while China could provide industrial goods at fair prices to these colonies, goods they could originally only obtain at high prices from European and American countries.
As a German Marshal, Reichenau was very confident in his own intelligence. He wasn't foolish enough to think that the lives of colonial people were like paradise. But the policies adopted by China could truly allow the people of the liberated colonies to obtain a good life they had never dared to imagine before.
And Li Runshi emphasized, "Our political propaganda in the colonies is only one thing: defend the fruits of the revolution. If the colonizers come back, the liberated people will suffer a second time and endure a second round of misery!"
In this peaceful urban environment, Reichenau's mood gradually calmed, and his thinking returned to composure. Although he was still unwilling to admit it, Reichenau had to make a hypothesis: if China could really execute their strategy, the strategy of Europe and America would definitely fail.
While assuming China might succeed, Reichenau also considered the possibility of China's failure. Strategic deception exists in this world, and the highest level of strategic deception is seemingly choosing a certain national policy while actually executing another. The reason this strategic deception is the highest level is that national policy itself cannot be hidden or faked. Any national high command with a certain level of competence can see through it.
In the current situation, the possibility of Chinese strategic deception was minimal. The most likely scenario was that China was actually practicing colonialism while disguising colonial means as liberating colonies. At the same time, it was deceiving the colonial people and other countries, making the colonial people provide war resources for China to "protect the fruits of victory," while intimidating other countries into choosing retreat out of fear of war.
However, this high level of strategic deception was truly hard to pull off. One only needed to go to the areas "liberated" by China personally to take a look and investigate to get accurate results.
Reichenau decided that he must go to China to see for himself. His main goal was not the easily understood trade between China and former colonial countries, but the true social revolution.
Now China had monopolized the markets of former colonies through war. Regardless of whether China engaged in legitimate trade or predatory trade, other countries could do nothing about it. But to truly conscript combat-effective troops through a mobilization system, even if such troops only had the combat effectiveness of line-filling units, it placed extremely high demands on the country's political philosophy and social system.
Although Li Runshi spoke with fervor and logic during his explanation, and Reichenau was greatly shocked at the time, now that his mood had calmed, he began to feel that Li Runshi might be largely deceiving. Leave aside whether Li Runshi could achieve 100% of what he said; as long as Li Runshi could achieve 50%, Germany could only choose to avoid the brunt of China's edge.
Thinking that He Rui had so openly convened an international seminar, he should open some areas for scholars and experts from various countries to visit. If China prohibited on-site inspections by scholars and experts from various countries, it would prove that China was engaging in strategic deception. As long as China opened some areas, Reichenau believed he would definitely be able to see clues.
Compared to Reichenau's doubts, Professor Karl, because he had taught in Northeast China and researched its development, did not have as many suspicions about Li Runshi's account. At least he did not doubt that China was truly engaging in revolution in various colonies. As for the extent of the revolution, Professor Karl himself did not particularly care. Based on his observations of China, as long as the colonial revolution could achieve a minimum level of success, it could mobilize an army exceeding 1% of its population. The 20 million-strong army mentioned by Li Runshi could be easily realized.
As for the logistics and material supplies provided by the colonies, that was even less of a problem. Professor Karl had many academic discussions with Schacht. When analyzing China's economic characteristics, they reached a consensus more and more. China was a populous country with vast territory and a huge market. For the Chinese economy, the biggest threat was that the higher the level of industrialization, the greater the unemployed population. Therefore, the colonial liberation policy proposed by Li Runshi was the best solution to the threat to China's economy. China gained a market of over a billion people. Although it might not fundamentally solve China's unemployment problem, it could greatly alleviate it.
These billion-plus colonial people lived on more than 50 million square kilometers of land. On this vast land, there were all known types of resources in the world, and their output was incredibly huge. China solved the market issue and also possessed almost endless raw materials. It indeed solved the biggest economic problem China would face in the next hundred years.
Thinking of a China that could develop freely for a hundred years, Professor Karl could not imagine how powerful such a China would become. Therefore, Professor Karl did not want Germany to break out into a devastating war with China. If Germany could obtain the opportunity to ally with China by selling out other European and American countries, Professor Karl would support Germany doing so without hesitation.
In his conversations with Zhao Tianlin and Li Runshi, Professor Karl confirmed that he could investigate freely in the liberated areas. He immediately decided to conduct full research with the hundreds of German experts on this ship. The current German head of state, Hitler, was a smart man. If a large amount of first-hand information could be submitted, Professor Karl believed Hitler would make the correct judgment.