Global Game (3)
Volume 7: World War II · Chapter 10
After the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced China's takeover of French Indochina, Germany was the first to jump out and declare, "The Chinese government's action is a naked aggression against France!"
This statement didn't even resonate with the German people, and the reaction from the public in other countries was similar. Even if white people in European and American countries felt that China was bullying white people, they had absolutely no interest in sending troops to help France retake its colony. At most, they mocked France a few times and cursed China a couple of times.
In Roosevelt's cabinet, the Army Chief of Staff and the Chief of Naval Operations were very nervous. Both chiefs of staff submitted reports to Roosevelt from a military perspective. Both reports concluded that China's retaking of Indochina meant a huge increase in China's military projection capabilities. Once China seized the Malacca Strait, it would control the passage between the Pacific and Indian Oceans. This would have a huge impact on American interests in the Indian Ocean.
At the end of their respective reports, both chiefs of staff stated that the United States could not sit idly by while China expanded and must contain, or at least balance, China's expansion. The Chief of Naval Operations, in particular, added worriedly: "The US Navy currently still possesses a certain advantage, but this advantage will disappear in the next 18 months."
After reading the reports, President Roosevelt invited Secretary of State Hull. He asked directly, "Hull, will China's goal stop at dominating the Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean?"
Hull couldn't give a judgment either. The US State Department believed that China could completely use the current situation to annex Asia. If the US wanted to stop China's expansion, it could only rely on the current US naval advantage to defeat the Chinese fleet.
When China sent an aircraft carrier battle group to the waters near France, some think tanks cooperating with the US State Department suggested that the US could consider launching an attack on this Chinese naval force. Once the four Chinese carrier battle groups were destroyed, it would not only give the US a naval advantage for the next 24 months or more, but also capture a large number of Chinese and French people, gaining a hostage advantage.
The US State Department think tank that proposed this view, however, made absolutely no mention of the fact that China would declare war on the US as a result, because this think tank believed that a war between China and the US was inevitable. This view could be implied, but not stated explicitly. If it were stated explicitly, that would be a different matter.
Secretary of State Hull believed that now was not the best time for war between China and the US. As for when would be most appropriate, Hull didn't know either. Hull only knew that American public opinion opposed war, and Roosevelt was currently considering running for a third term. If Roosevelt were perceived as a pro-war figure, he would definitely not be elected.
Seeing that his Secretary of State failed to answer, Roosevelt changed the question. "Hull, who do you think China is trying to control this time?"
Hull was stunned. He thought Roosevelt had a very high strategic vision; this question showed considerable perspective. Even in the talent-filled US State Department, only a few people suggested the idea that China wanted to control France. Other State Department personnel who didn't agree weren't of low caliber; rather, they couldn't imagine that China could actually control a major power like France.
Since the President asked, Hull replied, "Mr. President, China has always opposed the Nazi German government. France's surrender to the Nazis means that if China continues to recognize the Vichy French government, it amounts to choosing to cooperate with Germany. Therefore, China cannot recognize the Vichy government.
"France has a large number of enterprises and personnel in China. It is necessary for the Chinese government to support an anti-Nazi French provisional government. With such a provisional government, French personnel and funds in China will also have an object of support. The State Department believes that in the future, French capital and personnel in China will have significant influence in the French government supported by China."
Roosevelt had already figured out that China was trying to support an anti-Nazi French provisional government, but Roosevelt believed that a leader like He Rui wouldn't just be considering such a small matter. Although it was unclear how China would use this French provisional government, He Rui would impossible limit himself to mere utilization; Roosevelt believed He Rui would definitely find a way to control France.
Hull himself couldn't come up with a reasonable explanation, so he asked frankly, "Mr. President, what conclusion would you like to set as the premise? I will organize the think tanks to conduct an analysis."
Roosevelt really wanted to say, "If China and the US go to war, what are the odds of victory?" But this really couldn't be said. More importantly, the geopolitical environment China had painstakingly built over the past 20 years meant that China's major neighbors were all cooperating with China. Although Britain, the Netherlands, and the US were very wary of China's expansion, these three countries did not border China. Their colonies around China also lacked the ability to confront China.
When high-level officials of the Great Powers called He Rui the world's top statesman, they were referring to He Rui's strategic vision and execution ability. To contain China's expansion now, the United States would have to enter the fray itself. Roosevelt very much hoped to possess such political influence, but he happened not to have it.
Even facing such a difficult situation, Roosevelt believed that the US could not allow China to expand like this. He stopped asking questions and directly issued a task to Hull: "Tell Britain and the Netherlands that the United States is willing to sign an agreement with them to protect the security of Southeast Asia."
After receiving the US proposal, the British Foreign Office immediately thought the US was stirring up trouble. Britain currently needed to prioritize the safety of the British homeland. Signing a colonial mutual protection treaty with the US would be expressing hostility towards China. Britain did not want to lose its colonies in India and Southeast Asia, and precisely because of this, Britain could not express hostility towards China right now.
But Britain hoped to get US support, so the British Foreign Office pulled a "read but did not reply" and did not answer this question.
The Netherlands had already been occupied by Germany, and the Dutch Queen had fled to London with the government to establish a government-in-exile. The Dutch colonies remained loyal to the government-in-exile. After discussing the US proposal, the Dutch government-in-exile believed that if the Netherlands lost its colonies in Southeast Asia as well, it would be nothing but a government-in-exile. Therefore, the Netherlands absolutely could not show weakness. On July 4th, the Dutch government-in-exile announced the signing of a colonial mutual protection agreement with the US government.
On July 5th, seeing that Britain refused to make peace with Germany, Hitler approved "Operation Sea Lion" to land on the British mainland and defeat Britain.
On July 7th, Hitler summoned the heads of the German Ministry of Economics and asked them to provide statistics on how much wealth had been obtained from France so far.
Napoleon said that to win a war, the first thing needed is money, the second is money, and the third is still money. Before Napoleon's tomb, Hitler recalled this matter. Since 1928, through cooperation with China, France had not only avoided the economic crisis but its economic development was the best in Europe. So much so that when Hitler decided to attack France, he really did so with the determination to die. If not for the deep hatred between France and Germany, the German people probably wouldn't have had the courage to actively attack France either.
Compared to the wealthy France, Nazi Germany's biggest problem so far was the economy. Hitler's means of driving the German economy were building the military industry, expanding the army, and constructing infrastructure. These were all long-term investments requiring massive funds in the short term. Germany had no money and could only run a debt economy. Since he had defeated France, Hitler hoped to properly make up for Germany's deficit through the wealth squeezed from France.
The heads of the Ministry of Economics immediately came to see Hitler with a large number of reports. Reading the first section of data, Hitler was pleasantly surprised for a moment, but the subsequent data gradually turned his mood from surprise to astonishment.
After France surrendered, Germany established an occupied zone in northern France and the French Atlantic region, covering about 60% of France's territory. Vichy France's territory was about 40% of the total area, located in the southern Mediterranean region.
France's industry was concentrated in the German-occupied zone. The German Ministry of Economics ordered the transport of large amounts of machinery, equipment, and various mineral supplies from this region back to Germany. Among the various French machines already counted, there were more than 400,000 French-made machine tools and 200,000 Chinese machine tools that France had purchased from China. Germany currently possessed 2.1 million machine tools. The nearly 700,000 machine tools "requisitioned" from France accounted for one-third of Germany's total, and the precision of this batch of machine tools was quite high, which was very important for German industrial production.
In addition to this equipment, Germany captured several million tons of various fuels and over ten million tons of various ores from France, greatly making up for Germany's domestic demand. Coupled with the large number of mines obtained from France, Germany's gains were immense.
As the saying goes, "having obtained Long, one covets Shu" (insatiable greed). After obtaining huge war resources, Hitler looked forward to solving Germany's fiscal problems. The fiscal problem Germany faced was simple: the German government had issued far too many bonds and now faced the pressure of bond redemption.
If a large amount of consumer goods could be looted from France at once and dumped onto the German market, while simultaneously using German Marks to redeem the bonds, the German people who received the German Marks would use the money in their hands to buy various consumer goods. The German government could then pay off its debts with low inflation.
According to the news Hitler received, commodities in the French market were plentiful, of good quality, and low price. He felt that even if he couldn't loot so many commodities at once, relying on France's large-scale production capacity for two or three years would also allow Germany to obtain this many commodities.
However, the report showed that Germany had indeed obtained a large amount of light industrial products, but nearly half of these light industrial products were imported by France from China. Without the light industrial products imported from China, France's domestic production capacity could not even fully satisfy France's own needs, let alone provide for Germany. Hitler knew that the heads of the Ministry of Economics would not lie about such major matters, so Hitler couldn't figure out why the situation had turned out this way.
After some conversation, the German economic department stated that further investigation was needed. Hitler gave them one month to provide a detailed conclusion.
After leaving the Chancellery, the heads of the German Ministry of Economics immediately sent two representatives to see Schacht. Schacht's home was a very ordinary house for the German intellectual class, with the doors tightly closed and no one seen entering or leaving. To describe it with an ancient Chinese saying, it rather had the flavor of "improving oneself in solitude when poor."
The two representatives knocked on the door and handed their business cards to the servant who opened it. Soon, the servant returned and led the two representatives to Schacht's study. It was a German scholar-style study with many shelves filled with books. On the display shelves were photos of Schacht receiving various honors. There were photos of Schacht with successive German presidents and chancellors, photos of Hitler and Schacht, photos of Schacht with leaders of various countries around the world, as well as photos of Schacht with various tycoons in the world of economics and leaders of chambers of commerce and consortiums. All were illustrious big shots.
Schacht himself sat beside a pear wood desk and calmly received the two German economic representatives. The two representatives were speechless for a moment. Schacht was the helmsman of the economic department hired by Hitler after he came to power in 1933, and he had created the German economic miracle of that time, doubling the German economy within five years.
By 1939, Schacht was kicked out of the German economic decision-making circle by Hitler for opposing Hitler's "radical policies." Now, Schacht was already considered an "anti-war activist." In Germany today, those considered anti-war activists were basically all arrested and locked up in concentration camps. That Schacht could still idle peacefully at home without anyone troubling him showed that Hitler was not a man who completely disregarded old sentiments.
Seeing that the two did not speak, Schacht sighed, "Thank you both for still coming to my place. If you have no other business, please return."
At this, the two representatives of the German Ministry of Economics hurriedly took out some statistical data excerpts and handed them to Schacht. After Schacht finished reading, the two representatives asked for Schacht's views on the French economic structure.
Schacht asked the two representatives, "What does the Ministry of Economics think of this?"
The two representatives of the Ministry of Economics stammered, hesitating to speak.
Schacht knew that these guys probably had a relatively correct view but dared not believe such a view. A large reason Schacht opposed the Nazi war strategy was that he had seriously studied the Sino-French economic structure and believed that while Germany could alleviate its problems through war, it could not solve them. His ideological conflict with Hitler focused on this point. Seeing his prediction proven, Schacht felt quite emotional.
"Mr. Schacht, how do you explain such a situation?" the two economic representatives asked tentatively.
Schacht immediately began to explain. To those who didn't understand economics, Sino-French economic cooperation looked like a powerful France choosing to cooperate with China to win over an ally and counter Britain. But the core of Sino-French economic cooperation was that China exchanged support for the international status of the Franc for the transfer of French industries and technology.
Technology transfer is easy to understand; France is an industrial power with a huge lead in technology. But industrial transfer is not so easily understood. Simply put, industrial transfer is the phenomenon where an enterprise transfers part or all of its product production from the original production site to other regions. Through industrial transfer, France transferred the production capacity of French products to China, enabling China to possess the same production capacity as France.
At this point in the explanation, the faces of the two German Ministry of Economics representatives had changed slightly. It wasn't that they completely didn't understand this, but they simply hadn't expected that such a thing could be completed in just over a dozen years. Moreover, the result of industrial transfer was terrifying. If China truly possessed the same production capacity as France, with China's population 17 times that of France...
"Mr. Schacht, I don't believe China can reach France's level!" one representative couldn't help but refute urgently. As for why he was so urgent, the representative himself didn't quite figure it out.
Seeing the other party's urgency, Schacht couldn't help but smile bitterly. When he first confirmed this matter, he also felt a huge shock and was even unwilling to admit the fact. Schacht didn't consider himself a racist and respected outstanding figures from other countries, but when Schacht found he had to admit that the capabilities of the Chinese were above those of the Germans, his first reaction was also disbelief and unwillingness to admit it.
Facing his German compatriots who shared the same emotions, Schacht was able to reply calmly, "Mr. He Rui is a great statesman with excellent economic concepts. In the past 20 years, he has created institutions and an environment suitable for modern industrial development, stimulating the enthusiasm of the Chinese people to devote themselves to industrial and technological development, and allowing these people to receive their due rewards. Naturally, a large number of outstanding Chinese talents would devote themselves to industrial development."
The two representatives didn't want to hear Schacht "boasting" about He Rui and China. They pulled the topic back to the purpose of their trip. "Mr. Schacht, why is France's industrial output so low?"
"France's industrial output is not low, and the French haven't falsified the data either. If you carefully check France's economic data, you will find that those companies used some tricks to make their reports look good, counting the capacity and profits of French companies in China into the total company profits to ensure that the stocks of French companies remained at a high level," Schacht explained with the detached tone characteristic of a scholar.
The two representatives of the German Ministry of Economics suddenly realized the truth but were speechless. They listened as Schacht continued: "There are actually two French economies now. One is the French economy we see, and the other is the French economy combined with China. Moreover, the French economy combined with China is developing extremely fast.
"Gentlemen, what remains in France now are basically high-profit enterprises and military industrial enterprises. The same goes for French civilian products. France was already considered a major producer of luxury goods, and these luxury goods remained in France. However, low-profit mid-to-low-end industries have been transferring to China. France uses a large amount of Francs to purchase these mid-to-low-end products used by ordinary people from China. Due to the status of the Franc, the prices of these commodities are very low, allowing low-income French people to live quite comfortable lives. The French upper-middle class consumes goods produced in France itself, creating the impression that France is extremely wealthy.
"France's wealth is built on the foundation of the Franc as a strong world currency. If France loses the status of a strong Franc, the true face of France we see will be far less powerful than the numbers suggest..."
The meeting didn't last long. After the two representatives left, they didn't know what to say. If they told Hitler Schacht's view, it would present a situation that would be very awkward for Hitler.
France's prosperity was built on the strong international currency status of the Franc. Hitler hoped to subsidize Germany's deficit by looting prosperous France. Hitler defeated France, and after its defeat, France lost the Franc's strong international currency status. The real economic situation of France was far less prosperous than it appeared when valued in the strong Franc. Hitler had no way to fill Germany's deficit by looting France... Hitler's expectations in the economic aspect had fallen through, and they were destroyed by Hitler's own hands.
The two representatives were also learned men. They knew they definitely couldn't say it like that. The two racked their brains all the way, thinking about how to explain the problem clearly without angering Hitler.
On July 8th, the Chinese Marine Corps landed in Saigon. The local French troops and colonial government personnel offered no resistance. The only ones who opened fire on the Chinese army were a unit of lackeys composed of locals.
The Chinese Marine Corps quickly crushed this insignificant resistance. During the interrogation of prisoners, the Chinese side asked who had ordered them to open fire. The answers from the local lackey troops were incoherent, leaving people confused.
The Vietnamese Communist Party had already accepted the leadership of the Chinese Civilization Party. A local Communist Party member in Saigon who was acting as a guide for the Chinese National Defense Force really couldn't listen any longer. He directly explained to the political officer of the Chinese Marine Corps responsible for interrogating the prisoners: "These people are used to being dogs. They didn't receive orders from their French masters, but seeing an army attacking, they would bark a few times just like dogs."
For a moment, the political officers felt this explanation was a bit far-fetched. The Chinese army was more powerful than the French army. Even the French army didn't dare to move, yet a bunch of Frenchmen's dogs dared to make trouble. This didn't make sense.
Although they didn't believe this explanation, the two political officers still reorganized their questions according to the line of thought provided by the translator. Soon, these lackeys heard the Chinese political officer ask, "Did you not know that we are stronger than the French army?"
Hearing this question, the lackeys immediately knelt down, kowtowing like chickens pecking at rice. At the same time, they begged loudly for mercy, "Masters, we know the Chinese masters are very powerful. But we didn't know the French masters had surrendered. If we had known, how would we dare to act? Masters, you don't know, if we didn't put our lives on the line, those French masters would take our lives!"
This humble reaction left the interrogators speechless. Especially that Vietnamese Communist Party member, who looked like he wanted to spit on these people. He only refrained from being so arrogant because the Chinese military personnel were present.