文明破晓 (English Translation)

— "This world needs a more advanced form of civilization"

Everybody Must Choose a Side (2)

Volume 6: Great Depression Era · Chapter 138

Hearing Molotov ask, "If war breaks out during the start period, will it affect China's fulfillment of the agreement?" He Rui felt that the CPSU was preparing to speculate. So he asked in return, "Does the Soviet Union believe that maintaining no troops on the Sino-Soviet border creates great pressure for the Soviet Union?"

This sentence was very blunt, making Molotov somewhat awkward for a moment. However, He Rui did not continue to pursue this matter, asking instead, "Is there anything else?"

Seeing that He Rui wanted to end the conversation, Molotov dared not probe further and continued to ask, "How high does Mr. Chairman think the probability is of Germany provoking a war?"

"100%," He Rui replied.

"How great is the possibility of Germany attacking the Soviet Union?"

"If the Soviet Union and Germany do not share a border, the probability is 60%. If the Soviet Union and Germany share a border, the probability is 100%," He Rui continued to answer.

Molotov did not ask anymore and rose to take his leave. At the national level, asking another country such specific questions was already a very low posture. To ask more would be a posture the Soviet Union could not assume towards China.

After sending Molotov away, He Rui went to attend a meeting of the Military Commission. Presiding over this meeting was Li Runshi. Facing the comrades' view that war might break out in 1940, Li Runshi stated his own opinion: "If Nazi Germany had not obtained Czech resources, Nazi Germany would likely have started the war in 1940. According to the data on Czech weapons stockpiles provided by technical experts from Czech arsenals who took refuge in China, Nazi Germany has now met the equipment needs of all their troops. The most reasonable explanation for the lack of action at this stage is that Nazi Germany is adjusting the equipment of its army to achieve training that could not be completed before. The current stage is the calm before the storm. Once Nazi Germany acts, it will inevitably be a stormy attack on Poland.

"Moreover, in the current public opinion in Europe, Poland's image is getting worse and worse. Although it is not quite certain whether the main driving force deteriorating Poland's image is Nazi Germany, or if Britain and France are already prepared to sacrifice Poland to let the Soviet Union and Germany border each other as soon as possible. This trend alone proves that war is unavoidable. Now all European countries must choose a side."

The comrades of the Military Commission did not object to the inevitability of the war's outbreak. Furthermore, a war breaking out in Europe would only reduce the pressure on China's freedom of action, so no one raised any objections.

Seeing that the comrades had no objections, Li Runshi continued, "Next, we will discuss the planned arrangements for conscription ending in the autumn of 1940."

Chief of General Staff Hu Xiushan said, "By the end of the autumn conscription in 1940, the number of active troops in our army will reach 4.7 million. Among them, the Air Force will be 1.27 million, including 100,000 fighter planes of various types, 300,000 pilots, and the remaining 970,000 as various logistics troops. The Army will total 18 Group Armies with 2.33 million troops. According to the military reform started in 1935, there are now 36 armored brigades, 59 motorized brigades, and 48 infantry divisions. The Navy will be 1.1 million. We will form a combat force centered on 36 aircraft carriers, naval aviation, and marine corps units.

"The number of reserves is 2.9 million, and training has begun. It is estimated that after the autumn conscription in 1941, the number of reserves will reach 4.9 million. They can be mobilized at any time. According to the plan, barring special circumstances, the troops will still use the current year's conscription as the main source of active forces.

"At this stage, the accompanying cruise ships capable of accommodating 1 million naval troops for equipment rotation training have been basically completed. In all completed naval equipment training, personnel can be replaced at any time to achieve maximum training..."

Li Runshi listened to Chief of General Staff Hu Xiushan's report and compared it with the mobilization plan he participated in. The mobilization sequence was divided into several levels:

1. Stop leave. All active servicemen end all family visits and leave status and return to their units;

2. Stop retirement/Conduct pre-conscription. Active servicemen scheduled to complete their service this year stop retirement and continue to stay in the team; qualified personnel who have registered for military service this year enlist early;

3. Transfer/Return to team. Reserve units replenish personnel and begin training to prepare for transfer to active duty. Specific technical departments or state-owned enterprises are transferred as a whole to military jurisdiction. Retired personnel return to their original units for active duty within a short period;

4. Conscript personnel with service experience;

5. Indiscriminate conscription of personnel meeting conscription requirements, militia units transfer to active duty;

6. Relax conscription requirements.

In the plans Li Runshi participated in discussing and formulating, China would be in a state of war, but the country would mobilize to level 2 at most, and might not even implement mobilization.

The primary reason for formulating the plan this way was that China adopted a compulsory military service system, not a recruitment system. Under the compulsory military service system, all adult citizens had the obligation to serve in the military. The state would formulate entry standards for compulsory military service based on needs. Since China's current population was 680 million, the service standards for China's compulsory military service were even higher than foreign recruitment standards. Even if an active force of 8 million and 7 million reserves were formed according to the plan, China's compulsory military service system would adopt standards far higher than other countries.

After discussion, Li Runshi and the person in charge of formulating the plan found that China might not need to mobilize, but only needed to declare a state of war. Entering a state of war meant imposing certain controls on society based on war needs. But control and mobilization were worlds apart.

Mobilization meant that regardless of whether the people were willing or not, they had to act according to the state's requirements; it was absolute coercion. Control meant the state required that certain things not be done. If the public truly violated the control regulations, they would receive warnings and certain punishments; this belonged to the category of government administration.

After discussion, the war plan that was originally thought to require a War Cabinet to execute seemed not even to require the establishment of a War Committee; the existing military departments could complete the war tasks. It was just that since the end of the Warring States period, China had basically never conducted a high-intensity, high-severity war of such scale. No one dared to be overconfident, and for the time being, no one put forward the formal view that China could fight a war with just its normal state structure.

Now hearing that the naval training troops were to be equipped with "cruise ships" capable of accommodating 500,000 troops for training, Li Runshi felt it was completely reasonable, yet also felt a somewhat inexplicable impulse to roast it.

According to the plan, by the end of 1941, all 1.1 million naval personnel should have their own ships. Only hospital ships and transport ships would move with the fleet. There was no need for a large number of dedicated transport ships for troop rotation training. So during the discussion, when Li Runshi heard shipping experts suggest building cruise ships to provide sea rotation, Li Runshi was shocked at the time. Not only Li Runshi, but He Rui's "Five Tiger Generals" participating in the discussion also looked stunned. Only He Rui clapped his hands and laughed loudly, "This suggestion is good!"

The shipping expert immediately explained, "The living environment on cruise ships is good, which helps officers and soldiers quickly recover their physical strength and mood. According to the plan, these cruise ships will be used for no more than three years. If other dedicated ships are built, not only will the living environment be harsh and the service not thoughtful enough, but it will be a waste after they stop being used. Using cruise ships, they can be directly converted from military to civilian use. Their residual value is very high."

Li Runshi also accepted this suggestion, but hearing that this batch of cruise ships was really completed, imagining the arduous living conditions on naval vessels on one side and the living environment on the cruise ships known as palaces of the sea on the other, he always felt something was not quite right.

At this time, Chief of General Staff Hu Xiushan had finished his introduction. The generals and leaders present felt it was completely within the range of what could be afforded at present, and no one made any suggestions.

He Rui then spoke: "Next, the work of the General Political Department will be led by Comrade Li Runshi."

As soon as this statement came out, the atmosphere below changed slightly. The Civilization Party led the army, and the General Political Department focused on ideology. Now that Li Runshi served as the President of the Party School, he already possessed immense power. It was widely believed within the Party that Li Runshi would become a strong contender for He Rui's successor. This appointment now was equivalent to placing Li Runshi in the position of He Rui's deputy. Some leaders had originally thought that He Rui's deputy would emerge from the military, but now it seemed that possibility was very small.

Although Wu Youping was He Rui's recognized close comrade-in-arms, Wu Youping was the head of the government system, not the head of the state. Seeing He Rui select Li Runshi from within the Party system, it indeed conformed to the state system.

More specific work was not discussed at a meeting of this level but was completed by various functional departments. After He Rui finished the meeting, he gathered the four strategic core members for another meeting. He Rui asked right away, "Regarding the question raised before, whether it should be a War Cabinet or a War Committee. Do you all have an opinion now?"

Last time He Rui raised such a question, the core members could not answer. He Rui was not prepared to let them come up with an answer immediately either, because this matter was not something to be thought out, but "calculated."

This time, He Rui was also not preparing to ask everyone to give an answer. If the government did not wish to disrupt economic operations because of war, and if the Ministry of National Defense could solve the problems, there was absolutely no need to establish a War Committee. If a War Committee could solve the problems, a War Cabinet naturally was not needed.

Wu Youping answered first: "I'll state some data now. According to our intelligence, Germany currently has about 2.1 million machine tools, of which 1.6 million are metal cutting machine tools. The United States has 1.7 million, and the Soviet Union has 850,000, with an annual production of about 60,000 new machine tools. China possesses 3.1 million machine tools to date. With current production capacity, we can produce about 290,000 new machine tools annually. Among these 290,000 new machine tools, state-owned enterprises have ordered 30,000 machine tools installed with new components including laser gyroscopes.

"If we are just fighting a war involving 15 million troops, the government can collect a bit more tax and issue a few more bonds. The profits of state-owned enterprises are easy to manage. For private enterprises accepting military industry and government procurement orders, give them 5% profit, and excess profits are turned over to the treasury. Plus, with the state promoting the popularization of technology, economic growth will be a bit faster. Gritting our teeth, it is possible to hold out. If it is just an army of 12 million, I think we can hold out."

The other three did not make a sound. It was not that everyone was pretending to be deep, but that they could not be sure if Wu Youping's view could truly be realized.

He Rui actually was not certain either. Although he had said before which kind of war to fight, He Rui had actually decided to fight a Socialist Global Liberation War. Once such a war started, the United States was destined to go to war with China. It was not that the United States could not bear to part with its few small colonies, but that the United States would absolutely not allow China to dominate the world order.

For China, if it only obtained hegemony in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, then war would still have to be fought in the future. Even if nuclear weapons came out and the world fell into a balance of terror, the world would continue the Cold War. In a state on the brink of war, all great powers would do their utmost to cause trouble within the other's sphere of influence. So if they didn't fight, fine; but if they fought, they had to fight out a new world.

When the United States possessed 49% of the global industrial capacity back then, it merely obtained leadership over Europe first. Now China's opponents were not only Europe but also the United States. With China's current strength, it would not be defeated. But to win the war, the difficulty was very great.

He Rui did not speak, and Cheng Ruofan, who usually could not help but say a few "silly words," did not make a sound either; the others spoke even less. Everyone had their own thoughts and was pondering individually. Li Runshi recalled that more than a year ago, Cheng Ruofan called him to receive some "surprise." After Li Runshi saw the laser gyroscope, he was indeed a bit surprised, but felt it was far less exaggerated than Cheng Ruofan said. But the follow-up of this impact was much greater than Li Runshi thought.

It was not to say how amazing a single laser gyroscope was. A simple piece of equipment was never anything amazing!

The important thing was that after a series of technologies broken through to create the laser gyroscope fully entered the practical stage, they produced a huge impetus for Chinese manufacturing. *To do a good job, an artisan must first sharpen his tools.* Previously, when old technicians produced 1,000 parts, there were a few with errors within one-thousandth of a millimeter from the design data. There were dozens or hundreds with errors of one-hundredth of a millimeter. The others were within the prescribed error but could absolutely not become precision parts.

Now, a student who had completed technical school training and received another half year of production and training, as long as this new worker really settled down and was willing to do machining, could easily reach the precision level of an old technician using new high-precision machine tools.

As for those senior technicians and engineers, they were responsible for producing high-precision machine tools, which was another kind of technical production. Originally, processing 100 parts might occasionally produce one part usable for high-precision machine tools. Now, processing 100 parts could probably produce about 10.

The more high-precision machine tools there were, the higher the efficiency of producing qualified parts. The price of parts with different precisions did not change linearly, but curvilinearly. The more high-precision machine tools there were, the higher the precision of parts within a unit quantity, and the lower the overall cost. In Li Runshi's view, the same war would see its costs greatly reduced with the rapid growth of China's industrial strength. With one side waning and the other waxing, China's chance of winning would be greatly improved.

Thinking was one thing, but Li Runshi said nothing. It wasn't that he didn't want to speak, but that he really couldn't be sure.

He Rui broke the silence, "What are everyone's views on the strategic objectives for the first phase of the war?"

Xu Chengfeng answered immediately, "Chairman, most comrades in the General Staff believe that the first phase is to seize Southeast Asia and drive Europe and America out of Southeast Asia."

Cheng Ruofan took over the conversation, "I think a decisive battle with the United States in the Philippines and Hawaii regions should also be counted as a task of the first phase. Because the United States might launch an all-out attack on us."

He Rui asked, "Do you all think that pulling the United States to Southeast Asia to fight is the most advantageous choice?"

Cheng Ruofan and Xu Chengfeng looked at each other and answered in unison, "Yes!"

Regarding strategy, everyone actually didn't have much choice. The foundation of geopolitics is the realistic material world. Since China did not have the ability to make the Hawaiian Islands disappear instantly, it could only consider various possibilities of the United States making maximum use of Hawaii, this core anchorage of the Pacific Fleet.

"What about the second phase?" He Rui continued to ask.

Xu Chengfeng answered, "Regardless of whether we have defeated the United States by then, we will attack British India and liberate it. According to the General Staff's deduction, our army's 4.7 million troops are barely enough to complete the operations of the second phase. Because other countries in the East Asian Economic Community can also provide 600,000 troops. Among them, 400,000 naval forces and 200,000 army forces. The training and equipment of these army forces are enough to deal with the Indian Army of British India."

"What about the third phase?" He Rui said as he distributed cigarettes to everyone.

Wu Youping had been feeling a bit short of breath recently and had a very low tolerance for smoke, so he got up to open the window. Just as he opened the window, the wind of early summer blew in, making Wu Youping feel refreshed. Behind him, Xu Chengfeng answered, "The third phase is hard to judge. If we only complete the first two phases and do not continue to attack... After Germany defeats France, it will still be fighting Britain. Britain should pull the United States in to fight together. But since our goal is to liberate colonies, Britain is entirely likely to choose to make peace with Germany and gather all strength to fight us.

"If the situation develops to this extent, we must rely on long-range projection capabilities to fight the enemy. This requires very high standards for our country's industrial strength and manpower."

Hearing this, Wu Youping's heart beat faster involuntarily, and he suddenly heard a buzzing in his ears. Mixed in the buzzing sound were some inexplicable high-pitched tones. The doctor said this was auditory hallucination caused by Wu Youping's excessive work pressure. He suggested Wu Youping rest well.

But in the current situation, how could Wu Youping have time to rest, let alone the mood to rest? What Xu Chengfeng just said made Wu Youping think of China's current shipbuilding capacity. Although China's shipbuilding capacity was climbing rapidly, there was still a not-small gap to achieve the continuous traffic of tens of millions of tons of shipping. If the war could break out ten years later, China could reach that level. But... China's economy was indeed very booming now, but the boom was built on the foundation of the government driving economic and social development with full force through deficits. Although China was indeed much better off compared to other countries, in at most five years, the Chinese economy would have to increase taxes and reduce deficits because of the deficits. The US economic crisis of 1937 was caused this way. China should be able to survive this arduous time, but it was absolutely impossible to emerge unscathed.

Thinking of this, Wu Youping added another layer of pressure. The tinnitus became more serious.

Just as Wu Youping was rubbing the acupoints on his ears with his fingers, trying to relieve the pressure, he heard He Rui say in a steady tone, "So, we must fight a Socialist Liberation War. Everyone can imagine, when we destroy the imperialist shackles in Southeast Asia and liberate the people of Southeast Asia, and they are distributed means of production and establish a social system that develops the economy with all its might, will they generate a large amount of import and export demand?"

Wu Youping always felt that He Rui's speeches at critical moments could always soothe people's hearts. Hearing He Rui treat Southeast Asia as a market, his mood immediately lightened a lot, and even the tinnitus was greatly relieved.

Walking back to sit beside He Rui, he heard He Rui continue, "Southeast Asia plus the Indian Peninsula, the population is also 600 million, right. A big market of 600 million people. Youping, do you remember when we were just liberated? At that time, industrial zones like the Northeast, Beiping-Tianjin, and Shanghai were producing at full capacity. Workers worked overtime and finally expressed that they could earn less money, just please don't work so much overtime."

Wu Youping recalled that era and sighed with nostalgic emotion, "Chairman, that was really a good time. Total elimination of illiteracy in the Northeast, adult training took root in the hearts of the people in the Northeast, it was all during that time. People said they didn't want to work overtime, but actually, they felt too tired and didn't earn enough. Later, after accepting adult training and learning some skills, their income went up. Sigh... I don't dare go home much now. Once I see the learning attitude of those two at home, I get so angry I can't eat... Sigh..."

What Li Runshi thought of was the ongoing population migration. What China lacked most now was jobs. If they obtained a large market of 600 million people, the import and export trade with them could create at least 30 million jobs.

He Rui continued, "It's not just the employment brought by imports and exports. The use value of the commodities provided by the market we obtain will be enough to turn the bubble of the currency we issued these years into reality. At that time, our currency volume will probably have to be increased further."

Li Runshi's heart shook. He had considered some of these issues, but because he hadn't yet mastered financial studies, he temporarily couldn't form a systematic cognition.

Cheng Ruofan, who had been silent all along, spoke up, "Chairman, I feel, won't this be turning those regions into our economic colonies and carrying out economic plunder against them?"

Only Cheng Ruofan dared to say this. Everyone waited silently for He Rui's answer.

He Rui answered calmly, "There will definitely be such components in the initial stage, so this depends on how we formulate the plan for the Global Liberation War."