Chapter 690: A Nation's Choice is Often Out of Necessity (7)
Volume 6: Great Depression Era · Chapter 131
On February 24, 1938, Li Runshi suddenly received a call from Cheng Ruofan inviting him to attend a meeting. Cheng Ruofan did not disclose the content of the meeting, merely stating it was a "confidential meeting." Since the mystery would be solved upon arrival at the venue, Li Runshi was prepared to enjoy a surprise. Moreover, Li Runshi also had a few small surprises to bring to this fellow Cheng Ruofan.
Security at Building 19 of the National Defense University was tight. The Majors and Lieutenant Colonels outside the conference room were all accompanying staff. Inside the conference room, Generals, Lieutenant Generals, and Major Generals made up one-third of the attendees, while the remaining two-thirds were Senior Colonels who served as the backbone of the military. Li Runshi was one of the few people not wearing a military uniform, which aroused the curiosity of many soldiers.
Soon, the soldiers learned that the person before them was the newly appointed President of the Central Party School and Secretary Li Runshi. The gazes directed at him became somewhat complex. The Party School Secretary was responsible for personnel, while the Party School President determined the teaching and academic assessment work. For a long time, He Rui had served as the President of the Party School. With Li Runshi assuming the role of President, the views of those within the system were vastly different from those outside. Who would He Rui's power be handed over to? He Rui was not yet fifty years old and was in good health, so no one dared to speak carelessly about this matter. But Li Runshi had been appointed as the President of the Party School, holding the power to assess party members and cadres. In the Organization Department's judgment on the use of leading cadres, the Party School's assessment carried heavy weight. As the President of the Central Party School, Li Runshi held enormous power that directly influenced the appointment and removal of leading cadres.
Xu Chengfeng saw that Li Runshi's demeanor was completely unaffected by such enormous power, and only felt that He Rui was extremely accurate in judging people. People are different; for some, the greater the power and responsibility, the more adept they become at social maneuvering and handling heavy burdens with ease.
Arriving beside Li Runshi and Cheng Ruofan, he heard Li Runshi say, "The Spanish Republican Army and the International Brigades have begun to engage in fierce battles with the Francoist rebels in the coastal areas of the Spanish Mediterranean."
A map of Spain appeared in Xu Chengfeng's mind. On the left side of the map was the area already occupied by the Francoist rebels, which controlled Spain's Atlantic coastline. The war was now erupting along the Mediterranean line on the right side of the map, naturally because the Francoist rebels were attempting to cut the Republican-controlled areas in eastern Spain in half. This was a very normal choice for the side with the advantage, and it also roughly proved that the Spanish Republican Government had fallen into a huge crisis.
"It seems the Spanish Republican Government can't hold on," Cheng Ruofan sighed in disappointment.
Li Runshi had long determined that the Spanish Republican Government was beyond saving, so he did not pick up on this topic. Instead, he continued, "It is now almost certain that Nazi Germany is about to annex Austria, and next it will be Czechoslovakia's turn. When British Prime Minister Chamberlain proposed that Austria should not expect support from other major powers regarding Germany's annexation, the US government announced the abolition of the gold standard, raised tariffs, and continued to adopt a deficit policy. Moreover, the Two-Ocean Navy Act is about to be sent to the US Congress. It is said that the reason for the Two-Ocean Navy Act is that the United States needs to balance naval pressure in the Pacific and Atlantic regions."
Xu Chengfeng's first thought was that a shipbuilding race would trigger a war. As for the current situation, ever since He Rui took the lead in forming the group in 1937, Li Runshi, as the group's secretary, had made various predictions about future developments. The previous predictions had all become reality, proving that Nazi Germany was now frantically expanding its military, using its military advantage to force Britain and France to accept Germany's territorial demands. In Li Runshi's prediction, the territories Nazi Germany wanted to reclaim included Austria, Czechoslovakia, and the Danzig Corridor in East Prussia.
From the perspective of German national sentiment and historical origins, the German Empire was a "Little Germany" after kicking out Austria. Since the Austro-Hungarian Empire was finished, Germany taking back these regions to establish a complete German state could not be considered unreasonable. With the insight, courage, and political ability displayed by the Nazi Führer Hitler, they were capable of completing these tasks. However...
Xu Chengfeng asked, "Can such a result still not satisfy Nazi Germany's economic needs?"
Li Runshi replied, "In the Nazi Party's philosophy, they have always believed that Germany's economic problems are due to foreign blockades, rather than problems with Germany's own economic policies. Now the Nazi Party is obviously not prepared to adopt the method of internal digestion to solve economic problems, so they can only export externally."
"Is this riding a tiger and finding it hard to get off, or path dependence?" Cheng Ruofan asked.
Hearing this, Xu Chengfeng was somewhat surprised. The former Cheng Ruofan believed that imperialists were not good things and that their choices all stemmed from evil purposes, so Cheng Ruofan would only say "riding a tiger and finding it hard to get off." Now that he could say "path dependence," it proved that Cheng Ruofan's perspective had broadened considerably. At least he would think that the primary purpose of imperialists was to solve the problems they faced; as for whether the means of solution were evil, it had nothing to do with whether the purpose was evil. Xu Chengfeng himself also believed that the methods of imperialists were basically inhumane. If imperialists occasionally reasoned, it must be under a situation where they were forced to do so. But between nations, there is no morality, only stance. The purpose of imperialists is definitely to serve the ruling class of their own country. In the eyes of imperialists, they themselves are patriots as bright as the sun and moon.
Cheng Ruofan, this fellow, had already made huge progress. Xu Chengfeng asked, "Can we judge the time when Nazi Germany will annex Czechoslovakia?"
"This depends entirely on the time it takes for Germany to digest Austria. In the past decade or so, the Nazi Party has been developing in Austria and the Sudetenland region. The actual launch of the annexation depends only on external conditions." Li Runshi gave his own judgment.
Xu Chengfeng wanted to ask more, but heard Cheng Ruofan ask, "Does the United States dare to participate in such intense European issues?"
This view made Xu Chengfeng somewhat surprised again. After Cheng Ruofan's perspective improved, the questions he asked were also different. If it were before, Cheng Ruofan would definitely ask how the United States would add fuel to the fire. When emotional, Cheng Ruofan might even directly throw out the silly question of "Will the United States jump in to stir up trouble?" It wasn't that Cheng Ruofan really thought the United States would jump into the fierce vortex of contradictions in Europe, but rather that when this guy was lazy in thinking, he would lazily set a boundary and then get the answer from others. With a boundary, thinking would become much easier.
Li Runshi replied, "The United States will continue to advocate on the Spanish issue that the International Brigades should leave Spain first."
Xu Chengfeng nodded. If Li Runshi's judgment was correct, this was indeed the support the United States could give to the fascist bloc. Nazi annexation of Austria, and if it annexed Czechoslovakia again, would incorporate the two regions with the highest level of industrialization in Central Europe into the German territory. The combined population of these two countries was nearly ten million, which must be one-fifth of France's total population. After obtaining these two countries, Germany's strength would increase greatly.
The most ridiculous thing was that France still had a lot of investment in these two countries. It was equivalent to France cooking a pot of food, only to have it taken away by Nazi Germany. And the United States' advocacy played a role in facilitating the demise of the Spanish Republican Government. If France could not do its utmost to interrupt this process now, France would be sold out and still help count the money.
This level of exchange took only a few sentences, and the three quickly participated in the meeting. Technicians took out a hexagonal metal device, opened the lid of the upper half, revealing a device with mostly red transparent parts inside. Li Runshi had read the materials and remembered some technical terms. Apart from these terms, Li Runshi's feeling about the laser gyroscope was only that this device looked like it had an industrial beauty similar to a marvelous mechanical heart.
In the subsequent meeting, Li Runshi thought he would be listening to a "book from heaven," but he did not expect that the R&D unit would simply explain the basic principles in words that even Li Runshi could understand. As well as some technical parameters, including precision, lifespan, and the price compared to the highest precision gyroscopes currently available. When the soldiers heard that the price of the mass-produced laser gyroscope was about one-third that of ordinary gyroscopes, someone immediately took the lead in applauding, and then applause rang out violently in the conference room.
Xu Chengfeng stood up abruptly, looking solemn, and made a shushing gesture to everyone. Only then did everyone remember the regulations before this trip and all stopped their movements. But the excitement on everyone's faces could not be stopped; they were truly beaming with joy. Then these Senior Colonels and Major Generals who undertook specific work gathered around to ask questions, while the leaders who were not responsible for specific work retreated, retreating until they retreated to other rooms.
The leaders' work had nothing to do with this specific technology. Cheng Ruofan said nostalgically, "I remember it seemed to be 1920 when Tesla was invited to the Northeast. The Photoelectric Reaction Center was built then. It's been 18 years now... Forget it, since it has been built, we can calculate this account next."
No one misunderstood the meaning of "calculating the account." Xu Chengfeng smiled and said, "The account for fighting a 'good imperialist war' is about calculated. Secretary Li, do you have any opinions?"
"Fighting an imperialist war is just bullying Britain and France. Fighting a good imperialist war requires forcing the United States to cooperate with us. Fighting a socialist liberation war requires defeating Europe and America. What level can be achieved now depends on the Military Commission's calculations."
Xu Chengfeng just nodded but didn't answer immediately. No matter who calculated the account, it had to be handed over to He Rui in the end. Up to now, the initiator of various policies in China was He Rui, and reporting to He Rui was not an easy task. The account calculated by He Rui might be the most accurate.
"The cost for the United States to maintain 100,000 aircraft is the cost for us to maintain 300,000 aircraft." Cheng Ruofan stated his assessment.
Li Runshi was very happy after hearing this number. This is calculating the account. Formulating strategy does not rely on whimsical ideas; how much war power a country can possess is calculated based on detailed economic data. Therefore, strategy wins because it is correct, and tactics are correct because of victory.
The numbers calculated by Cheng Ruofan were similar to those calculated by Li Runshi. Taking the Chinese Air Force as an example, the National Defense Force calculated that China needed to maintain more than 100,000 aircraft in the war. Judging by various losses, at least 300,000 fighter jets needed to be produced. Compared with the world's top fighter jets, China's mainstream fighter jets would definitely not be at a disadvantage. At this stage, cost control of Chinese fighter jets became the key to whether the war could continue.
In order to reduce costs, China produced at least dozens of various 10,000-ton hydraulic presses. To manufacture these super-large pieces of equipment, China's investment was extremely huge. However, these super-large pieces of equipment improved China's industrial design and production capabilities. Even if these super-large pieces of equipment were not used to process military equipment parts in the future, there would still be a large number of other industrial parts queuing up for processing. Within the lifespan of these devices, the manufacturing cost could be fully recovered.
Specifically regarding fighter jets, China not only developed the current J-9 but also developed several prototype aircraft using piston engines. After comparison, it was determined that after adding supercharging equipment, the combat effectiveness of these piston engines was roughly on par with the Chinese J-9 fighter jet, but the manufacturing cost of the piston type with supercharging turbo equipment was much higher than that of aircraft using turboprop engines.
In addition to manufacturing costs, in order for piston engines to exert high power, these aircraft needed to use expensive high-octane gasoline. While the engine of China's J-9 used aviation kerosene. The difference in usage cost was shocking.
China has cooperated with the US Rockefeller Consortium for nearly 10 years, jointly developing and sharing the world's most advanced petroleum cracking technology. From the perspective of cost accounting, the price of high-octane gasoline produced by China's most advanced large-scale petroleum processing enterprises is 3-5 times that of aviation kerosene. If the United States loses the sources of crude oil suitable for processing high-octane gasoline in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, relying on oil fields in the US mainland and surrounding countries, the price of high-octane gasoline may be 5-8 times that of aviation kerosene.
With such numbers as support, the cost for the United States to manufacture and maintain 100,000 fighters for war is enough for China to maintain 300,000 fighters. The extra fighters China has can be used in various aspects. For example, cutting off the channels for the United States to obtain high-quality crude oil, forcing the United States to maintain the war at high costs. This is why strategy wins because it is correct. After the outbreak of war between China and the United States, as long as China executes the correct strategy and continues to fight, it can win. It is not that the United States lacks war determination, nor is it that American soldiers are afraid of death, but under such circumstances, even if the United States spends 90% of its industrial and agricultural output value on the war for several consecutive years, the United States will not persist until the day of victory.
Strategists are not unique to great powers. Great powers, medium countries, and small countries, as long as there are people who have received enough relevant education and can correctly understand strategy, can become strategists. It's just that the strategic upper limit of a small country is lower than the strategic lower limit of a great power, so naturally, they can't hold up in many areas. The reason why small countries are easily occupied and even conquered lies in this.
But this does not mean that great powers can have infinite space. The problem of great powers lies in strategic goals. Fighting a war is an extremely expensive thing. Strategic calculations in the last six months show that once the war starts, the military expenditure will be 420 billion Chinese Yuan per year, which is about 70 billion US dollars. China expects the GDP in 1941 to reach 1.2 trillion Chinese Yuan. About one-third of the GDP will be used for war, which is a huge sum of money.
Now that the war has not broken out, about 120 billion Chinese Yuan, or about 20 billion US dollars, needs to be invested every year. This expenditure is equally huge. Many countries do not fail to see the benefits of war, but before they can make a profit, their domestic economy is dragged down during the preparation for war.
Xu Chengfeng also understood these issues, so much so that he now leaned more towards fighting an imperialist war, at most fighting a "good imperialist war." Since a good imperialist war could also cause the collapse of the colonial system, why bother consuming huge national strength to fight a socialist liberation war?
If fighting an imperialist war, China's goal is only to liberate Asia, then it would be even simpler. War costs could even be directly reduced to 240 billion Chinese Yuan per year, equivalent to 40 billion US dollars. Occupying only about 15% of China's future GDP, China can completely bear such pressure.
The leaders' words were short because everyone knew that speaking at length was meaningless. Xu Chengfeng said, "I personally lean towards the 240 billion plan per year."
Cheng Ruofan only sighed slightly but did not make a sound. Li Runshi also did not wish to fight such a war. Since it could only produce a result of a good imperialism, he didn't make a sound either. Seeing the two like this, Xu Chengfeng also fell silent. The three knew they couldn't remain in a deadlock like this. Li Runshi broke the silence, "Since there are clear figures, let's report to the Chairman."
Cheng Ruofan immediately expressed agreement. Xu Chengfeng knew he could not persuade the two opposite him. Most importantly, Xu Chengfeng knew that He Rui hoped to fight a war to liberate the world, so he could only agree.
Two hours later, He Rui began to flip through the content of the plan in front of the three. He Rui flipped extremely fast, as if a child flipping through a book. More than ten minutes later, He Rui closed the plan book. "I think the 240 billion plan is not too far off, and it can also fight a socialist liberation war."
"Really?" Xu Chengfeng couldn't help but ask. No matter how he calculated, he couldn't calculate the result He Rui mentioned.
Cheng Ruofan also dared not believe He Rui's words, so he put forward his view, "Sustaining the war by means of war?"
He Rui smiled, "Not sustaining the war by means of war. I think it should be put this way: three parts military, seven parts politics. If we can achieve this, the troops that finally march into the imperialist capitals will be a world coalition army, not the Chinese army."
Cheng Ruofan felt that what He Rui said was probably not sustaining the war by means of war, but it looked very similar. And Xu Chengfeng really couldn't imagine how a group of colonial native soldiers could possess the strength to fight against the Great Powers in just a few years.
Li Runshi was overjoyed in his heart. He had considered repeatedly in the past six months and believed that only by exerting the resistance spirit of the vast colonial people could they gather sand into a tower and form a strength capable of fighting against European and American imperialism. It was just that doing so required very brilliant economic organizational ability. Li Runshi himself failed to come up with a complete plan, nor did he find a complete train of thought through conversations with others. However, Li Runshi believed that only this method could defeat European and American imperialism.
He Rui had made a plan himself. What was needed at this time was for the core leaders of the Central Committee to keep up with the pace first. At this time, the three plan books were enough to prove that everyone had kept up, so the subsequent work would be much simpler.
Knocking on the plan book on the table, He Rui asked, "I'll ask another question. You didn't write it clearly. Is it a committee or a war cabinet that executes this plan? Who will answer?"