Li Runshi soon discovered the benefits of having higher security clearance. He could not only see more classified content, but the latest global updates were also delivered to him first thing after being compiled.

"A scholar knows the affairs of the world without stepping out of his door"—this is merely wishful thinking. However, the fact that national leaders do not step out of their doors does not affect their understanding of domestic and world issues. Leaders are not unaware; rather, for various reasons, they choose not to know. For instance, due to his mission and position, Li Runshi paid close attention to the progress of the Spanish Civil War. The Minister of Education, however, would not read this content; at most, he would casually glance at the general news in the newspapers.

By August 1937, the situation in Spain had become even more acute. The internal contradictions within the Spanish Republican forces had completely detonated. The internal strife between the Spanish Communist Party, the moderate left, the Third International, and Spanish separatists—after a period of simmering conflict—had now exploded into the open.

At this stage, the native Spanish faction was purging the separatists and the forces of the Third International, attempting to use terrifyingly orderly politics to end the chaotic disorder within the Republican camp. For the time being, it was working. But the side effect was that during this purge, the campaign in the northern gulf failed, and Franco's rebel forces occupied Spain's northern industrial zone.

The purged Spanish left-wing forces then took troops loyal to them and left the territory controlled by the Republican government, attempting to establish their own independent power.

Li Runshi looked at the map of Spain, which marked the zones occupied by various factions, and held no further illusions about the Spanish Republican government. As for those left-wing forces, Li Runshi had absolutely no interest in spending time considering their future. Although Franco's rebels were not powerful, his forces were highly united; despite significant internal disagreements, there were no splits. Italy and Germany were providing full support in troops and weapons, while the United States was providing full logistical support and loan services. The balance of power had fundamentally changed. The once-disadvantaged Francoist rebels had reversed the power dynamic.

Withdrawing his gaze, Li Runshi sat back in his office chair and continued reading the documents. Over the past few days, Li Runshi had basically established his confidence that China would win the imperialist war. As long as the imperialist countries fought each other, they would not be able to hold onto the Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. These areas were colonies, far from Europe and America. Once China seized these regions and established effective administration, all European and American countries would need to dedicate their national strength to military preparation for ten consecutive years before they could possibly launch a counterattack. Neither Europe nor America could accept such military preparation and cost. Therefore, once Europe and America lost Asia, they would not be coming back. In other words, China had ample conditions to build a "good imperialist" economic community in Asia.

If China's future strategy stopped there, the gains would be great and the costs small. Based on such a massive economy, China could focus on domestic affairs and quietly await external changes. As *The Art of War* says: "Therefore the skillful fighter puts himself into a position which makes defeat impossible, and waits for the enemy to reveal the opportunity for victory. Thus it is that in war the victorious strategist only seeks battle after the victory has been won."

Sun Tzu's view was perfectly in line with materialist dialectics: internal causes determine the nature of the contradiction, while external causes determine the conditions of the contradiction. Victory can be predicted, but it cannot be forced.

What troubled Li Runshi now was not what China could achieve, but that he could not figure out whether the American elite class had a clear strategy. From America's current behavior, it could be basically determined that the U.S. intended to push for the outbreak of war and had begun to cautiously advance within the scope of the President's authority. But this content was not enough; to fully judge America's reaction, more views from the American elite were needed.

Li Runshi did not rely solely on solitary contemplation. Since he had made such a judgment, he noted down a sentence: "Please have the Ministry of Foreign Affairs exchange views with the American elite regarding the possibility of America engaging in foreign wars."

Having written this objective, Li Runshi began to list criteria for analyzing information from the U.S. State Department. If the American elite did not accept forming a balance of power in the Pacific with the Chinese Navy, it meant the American elite believed there was no security trust between China and the U.S. at this stage. If the American elite showed a strong tendency toward isolationism, it meant the American management class felt a strong threat of war...

Every point was based on a normal human's understanding of national status, feelings about the international status quo, and reactions to threats. This was not easy to write; before he was even halfway through, Li Runshi felt there were too many threads in his mind and had to stop to rest for a moment.

Looking at what he had written, a thought suddenly popped into Li Runshi's head: *If I used these criteria to judge He Rui, what result would I get?*

A moment later, Li Runshi was amused by his own conclusion. The things He Rui did seemed very normal in hindsight, and most of He Rui's thinking was no different from that of a normal person. But Li Runshi believed that if he asked He Rui these questions, he would definitely get the answer He Rui wanted the other party to hear, and it would be the most sincere, frank, and unconcealed answer. Because while He Rui would give an answer at the level of the question, his depth of view on the issue completely transcended that level.

While he was smiling, the door was pushed open. General Cheng Ruofan entered and asked in puzzlement, "Why is Premier Li laughing?"

Li Runshi did not hide it. "I imagined the Chairman answering strategic-level questions raised by foreigners, and suddenly I really wanted to laugh."

Cheng Ruofan replied without the slightest surprise, "Oh, I often laugh when I think about those things too."

Li Runshi nodded, but before he could speak, Cheng Ruofan said, "Premier Li, the evaluation team from the General Staff has arrived. Let's go listen together."

"So soon?" Li Runshi stood up immediately. Over the past decade or so, China had constructed its own combat systems. These systems were not the flashes of genius from the agricultural era, but scientific analyses based on the industrial age. These combat systems had underlying logical frameworks, mid-level methodological model frameworks, and equipment support at the execution level. The theories behind these systems were not complex, but Li Runshi, having only made preliminary contact with them, could already feel the power contained within.

Sure enough, upon arriving at the adjacent office, the research experts gave an introduction lasting less than ten minutes before submitting comparisons of national war capabilities calculated based on these systems. The first was the comparison of French and German military power. The conclusion was that if Germany continued to develop in its current direction, its military advantage over France would continue to expand. Unless France could carry out a comprehensive military revolution and completely overturn its old war concepts, France would inevitably be defeated on the battlefield in a future war between the two nations.

From the perspective of military spending, Germany's 1937 military budget was about 6 billion Marks, equivalent to roughly 2.6 billion US dollars. France's military spending had fluctuated over the years; in 1936 it was 3.6 billion Francs (about 600 million USD), and in 1937 it was 12 billion Francs, about 2 billion USD. France not only had a lower total annual military budget than Germany, but its use of funds was also far less effective.

Taking the 1937 budget of 12 billion Francs as an example, part was used on the Maginot Line, and part on updating rifles, aircraft, and naval vessels. It seemed comprehensive, but analyzing it from the perspective of China's combat systems, France was merely treating symptoms without addressing the root cause, and had not touched upon true future military concepts.

The reason France was doomed to defeat was not that the French army had become weak. From every angle, the French army possessed immense strength, vastly exceeding Germany on paper. Based on the results of a series of military exercises, China calculated and judged that the combat effectiveness German military equipment could exert was 2-3 times that of France. France, however, did not possess military forces more than three times the size of Germany's. Judging by current development, France's actual deployable military power was only 20% higher than Germany's current level. Germany's combat power would soon comprehensively surpass France's. This power balance curve was highly similar to the Franco-Prussian War.

Li Runshi felt he lacked the ability to evaluate this, so he looked at the China-US comparison. To his slight surprise, the Chinese General Staff's evaluation believed that in terms of land forces, China was 40% stronger than the United States. However, in naval and air combat, the gap between China and the US was only about 10%. If China wanted to win, it could only rely on the quantitative advantage of naval and air equipment, as well as providing fully targeted training to China's 12 million active-duty service members, thereby obtaining advantages in both quality and quantity.

Before Li Runshi could ask, the two Major Generals across from him began to explain. "According to the intelligence we have obtained, the US Navy is increasingly inclined toward aircraft carrier operations. In particular, the United States has already developed the Mk 37 Fire Control System with radar. This fire control system can support American combat systems. The American military tradition has the weakest influence on the US; they are poised to adopt armored units for the army and aircraft carriers for the navy. Through the efforts of a large number of technical personnel, they are building a brand-new American combat system based on technologies the US has already mastered.

"Judging from the perspective of 'anticipating the enemy's strength liberally,' our conclusion is that objectively, the United States will possess a combat system capable of confronting China. Once war breaks out, the US military will rely on America's powerful industrial strength to drag China into a high-intensity, high-attrition war of attrition. We can only defeat the United States by exhausting its war potential."

Li Runshi said nothing. He wanted to ask about the military comparison between China and the Soviet Union, but when he opened his mouth, it turned into, "What about the Soviet-German military power comparison?"

This change was not because Li Runshi was afraid of war with the Soviet Union, but because Sino-Soviet security trust was the cornerstone of China's geopolitical strategy. Current relations between China and the Soviet Union had absolutely not reached the point where this cornerstone needed to be overturned. Therefore, Li Runshi could find no reason to raise such a question. In such a serious environment, he did not want to waste everyone's precious time to satisfy his own curiosity.

"The Soviet Union only possesses a littoral navy, intended to protect the Baltic and Black Seas. If war breaks out between the Soviet Union and Germany, do not expect to see the Soviet fleet in the North Atlantic or the Mediterranean. Regarding the land army concepts of the Soviet Union and Germany, the Soviet Union appears to be moving in the right direction, but due to the problems currently accumulated within the Soviet Red Army, its development direction has a high degree of uncertainty."

Li Runshi did not know how to rate the Soviet military tradition either, so he turned to a clearer target. "Where is the obvious shortcoming of the Soviet Army?"

"Assuming the Soviet Union establishes a mechanized warfare concept for its army, its research on aircraft to accompany armored units in offensives is extremely backward. In contrast, Germany has already built dive bombers. In the Spanish Civil War, these bombers attacked Republican bridges, command posts, artillery positions, and ships in harbors, achieving very good results. Most importantly, through the use of dive bombers, Germany has proven that their combat system concept is correct."

"This judgment..." Li Runshi didn't finish.

"Based on the battle reports from the 16th International Brigade and intelligence gathered from numerous other channels, we can confirm that Germany has indeed completed the theory of armored warfare. In this Spanish Civil War, the German military purposefully conducted a large number of tests to verify their combat theories and achieved good results.

"Based on our understanding of the Soviet Union, even if they were to set up a special project immediately, the earliest they could produce a tactical bomber equivalent to the current German dive bomber would be 1941. At this stage, intense debate continues within the Soviet Red Army, which will delay Soviet research and development in this area."

Li Runshi determined that the meeting could end here; continuing further would not prove any more how fully prepared the Chinese National Defense Force was. Moreover, Li Runshi had discovered several topics he needed to learn about during the meeting. If he couldn't immediately make up for these knowledge gaps, he couldn't guarantee he could effectively continue the discussion.

Before indicating that the meeting could end, Li Runshi suddenly remembered a question. "May I ask, when did China begin the project to develop tactical bombers?"

The Major General across from him answered immediately, "1930."

After the meeting ended, Li Runshi asked, "The laser gyroscope won't delay the development progress of battlefield bombers, will it?"

At the mention of this, Cheng Ruofan showed no regret. He answered with an attitude of one whose heart has died past the point of grief: "Without laser gyroscopes, there are still mechanical gyroscopes. comparatively, the performance is just much worse, and the price is much different."

Li Runshi asked no more. According to the materials he had read, the rotor of the best mechanical gyroscope currently could theoretically spin 10,000 times per minute. A laser, however, travels at a speed of 300,000 kilometers per second inside the gyroscope. If the length of one circuit is 60 centimeters, or 0.6 meters, the laser beam acting as the "rotor" completes the equivalent of 500 million "rotations" in one second. This is the physical basis for the immense difference in precision between the two.

Because of the high-speed rotation and the high requirements for stability, the most cutting-edge materials and precision processing equipment must be used, making the manufacturing cost of high-precision mechanical gyroscopes very high. In contrast, the manufacturing cost of laser gyroscopes was already only half that of mechanical ones. The key limiting the laser gyroscope was not cost, but that a large number of technical problems on the frontiers of science had not yet been solved. Most countries on Earth did not even know China had built a laser, let alone study these problems; there was absolutely no possibility for China to solve the problems by importing technology. They could only rely on Chinese scientists and engineers to accumulate knowledge constantly, attempting to achieve a breakthrough one day.

Understanding this, Li Runshi was not disappointed; instead, he had more confidence in victory. This time, China could finally fight a war at the same technological level as the rest of the world. This victory would no longer prove the sacrificial spirit of the Chinese people's love for their country and family, but would prove China's comprehensive victory.

With such confidence, Li Runshi asked, "Chairman Cheng, to what extent do you think the American upper echelons currently understand America's strategy?"

"I feel the US has only realized that old methods can no longer solve America's current problems. Their management class has some basic consensus in this area, but there are many different solution mindsets within their elite. Even expecting other countries to start the war first is merely America's path dependence regarding a European war." Cheng Ruofan did not speak very smoothly; this question also troubled him. Especially after He Rui reminded him to "have penetrating power," Cheng Ruofan had to try to put himself in the shoes of the American elite, which made his thinking very painful.

Before this, Cheng Ruofan's thinking had been much more relaxed and brisk. At that time, Cheng Ruofan believed the US had not established the theory to support its war plans, and all American solutions were not pure enough, so the American management class was prone to indecision. China, on the other hand, had started constructing new military theories ten years ago. Given the gap in preparation between the two sides, although the future war would be intense, the United States was doomed to defeat.

Now forced to understand the American management class, Cheng Ruofan suffered quite a bit. So much so that this answer, which tried to be as comprehensive as possible, was so vague that Cheng Ruofan himself was very dissatisfied with it. After saying this, Cheng Ruofan looked at Li Runshi, feeling very unconfident about what evaluation this comrade, whom He Rui highly appreciated, would make.

After listening to Cheng Ruofan's answer, Li Runshi felt much clarity in his heart. After pondering for a moment, he praised sincerely, "Chairman Cheng's judgment is very close to the facts. Especially the point you raised about the American choice of path moving 'from spontaneous to self-conscious'—that is a key point in judging this war."

Hearing Li Runshi's relatively high praise, Cheng Ruofan felt much more relaxed. He smiled bitterly. "Heh, we judge that the US will likely pass a large-scale ship-building act within a year. Whether this act is America's path dependence or the starting point for many American political elites to move from spontaneous to self-conscious... that is not easy to judge."

Seeing Cheng Ruofan so conflicted, Li Runshi tentatively asked, "Does Chairman Cheng feel very troubled?"

"Shouldn't I be troubled?" Cheng Ruofan asked. He felt he could be looked down upon by others because he never felt inferior in front of them. But Cheng Ruofan could not ignore He Rui's criticism because he believed He Rui was definitely correct. Ignoring the correct direction would break Cheng Ruofan's bottom line as a person.

Li Runshi had been a teacher and had seen students facing such confusion. Since what Cheng Ruofan cared about was not emotion, he advised, "Chairman Cheng, warfare today is different from before. In the past, commanders were required to have insight into the opponent's mind, but that was the state of war under old forms of warfare. With current technological levels, the fog of war has thinned considerably. No matter how excellent a commander is at insight into the human heart, they cannot withstand a commander who controls the battlefield with 24-hour aerial reconnaissance. No matter how incredible the troop deployment, it cannot withstand the correct judgments of hundreds of engineers operating hundreds of computers calculating non-stop. Why don't we look at the problem from a different perspective?"

Cheng Ruofan was piqued by this. "What kind of perspective?"

"Can the United States achieve strategic mutual trust with us now?" Li Runshi asked.

Cheng Ruofan was stunned; he really hadn't deduced carefully from this perspective. After thinking for a moment, Cheng Ruofan answered, "I have never trusted the United States, or rather, I have never been willing to trust the European and American powers."

"That's very good," Li Runshi praised. "In other words, Chairman Cheng believes that China and the United States cannot achieve strategic mutual trust."

Cheng Ruofan couldn't understand for a moment, but he quickly adjusted his thinking and felt Li Runshi's view made a lot of sense. Considering from the level of strategic mutual trust between the two sides, Cheng Ruofan quickly answered, "Because both China and the United States expect to establish a new international order that their own country expects, it is unlikely for China and the US to achieve strategic mutual trust under the current circumstances. For a road that has never been realized, any responsible elite class can understand it, but will not truly believe it. When both sides determine that the other wants to push their own new order, a chain of suspicion is generated."

Li Runshi nodded slightly. Cheng Ruofan's answer proved the evaluation of Li Runshi's old leader in the Upper Burma region, the former teahouse owner Han Haitao. What Cheng Ruofan lacked was strategic penetrating power of He Rui's degree, not understanding. Cheng Ruofan was very smart; as long as it was on a level he could understand, judging the situation and predicting developments had always been his strong suit. In this aspect, even Xu Chengfeng, considered the most talented in the military, did not dare to claim superiority over Cheng Ruofan.

Since Cheng Ruofan had figured it out, Li Runshi said, "If this is America's path, we despise the United States strategically and take the United States seriously tactically. That is enough. As for when the Americans move from spontaneous to self-conscious, it has very little impact on this war. As for fighting... you fight your way, I fight mine."

Cheng Ruofan savored Li Runshi's words, finding them more flavorful the more he tasted them. Cheng Ruofan couldn't help but ask, "Premier Li, have you really never studied military science?"

This was not a joke; Cheng Ruofan truly felt that someone who could say this must be a great military strategist.