A Clear Future (6)
Volume 6: Great Depression Era · Chapter 120
Japan's initial industrial system was introduced from Britain, with a standard of 230V, 50Hz. The American power standard was 110V, 60Hz. After 1900, the United States' influence on Japan grew stronger, and Japan's voltage gradually unified at 110V, but it left behind two power systems with frequencies of 50Hz and 60Hz respectively.
After the formation of the East Asian Alliance, North Korea and Ryukyu, because their industrial strength was weak, were able to travel light and quickly built new power systems according to China's industrial standards. For Japan, firstly, its industrial scale was large, making conversion difficult. Secondly, there was also psychological unease within Japan about completely adopting Chinese standards.
By April 1, 1936, Ishiwara was eating breakfast, gnawing on a fried dough stick (youtiao) while reading the newspaper. The headline was the news that the Tokyo Stock Exchange in Japan had risen sharply for three consecutive trading days. Turning to the second page, it was all news about power equipment manufactured by Mitsui, Mitsubishi, and Komatsu, as well as machinery manufacturing. The third page contained news about other companies related to power and machinery manufacturing.
Putting down the newspaper, Ishiwara devoured the fried dough stick and the mixture of tofu brains and spicy soup (hulatang) in his bowl like a whirlwind, stood up and said, "I'm going to work."
Mrs. Ishiwara, a standard Japanese woman, hurriedly stood up to open the door. Before Ishiwara walked out of the house, Mrs. Ishiwara bowed, "Please take care on the road."
If this were before the Japanese Revolution, these words would have been at least half sincere. At that time, Japan's domestic economy was destitute, and society was like a boiling cauldron. Assassination incidents occurred frequently, and it was not uncommon for the Prime Minister to be assassinated. Troops rushing into the Prime Minister's home to kill people had also happened.
Now, Ishiwara only had two guards by his side. Although the guards looked serious, they were actually quite relaxed inside. Along the way, the cherry blossoms in Japan's streets and parks were blooming brilliantly. The Japanese people on the streets walked with hurried steps, full of the vitality of hard work. Ishiwara was very emotional in his heart; many of Japan's chronic illnesses had been destroyed by the revolution. But after witnessing the national situations of China, the United States, and the Soviet Union, Ishiwara had an urgent expectation in his heart, hoping that Japan could also catch up with these great powers.
Even the Soviet Union, which was considered backward, because of the good distribution system established by the Soviet socialist system, the Soviet people had abundant light industrial products, and their daily living standards were above those of Japan. Moreover, the Soviet Union had vast territory and abundant resources, with a population of 160 million, only three times that of Japan. But the Soviet Union's land area was 22 million square kilometers, more than 50 times that of Japan. Just relying on exporting raw materials allowed the Soviet people to live a very good life, not to mention that Soviet industry had also made considerable progress in the past ten years or so.
On this journey, Ishiwara was quite excited. The policy just launched was the Future Party of Japan's first industrial policy in the true sense. As the party leader with absolute appeal in the Future Society, Ishiwara felt immense pressure.
Several cabinet members were already waiting at the Prime Minister's office. Seeing Ishiwara enter, they immediately stood up and bowed. Ishiwara had visited some countries in the past two years and had to wear a western suit. Ishiwara himself had a baby face and was short. No matter how well the suit fit, he looked like an insignificant little person.
Now Ishiwara was wearing a general's uniform without any rank insignia, and he immediately looked like a somebody. Now that he was wearing the military uniform again, Ishiwara sat down in the central seat and immediately unbuttoned his collar hook, "Make the report."
The first to report was the Director-General of the Ministry of Industry. This entire industrial upgrade was a major event, but any major event is naturally divided into many steps and details. So the report from the Director-General of the Ministry of Industry was very thick. He turned past the table of contents and entered the general outline of the first part.
"This industrial upgrade includes the transformation of the entire Japanese power system, as well as the upgrade of mechanical equipment. In the power transformation part, Japan's largest trading partners include China, North Korea, Ryukyu, and the Soviet Union. The power standards of these four countries are all 220V, 50Hz. Japan's power transformation will adopt this standard, and this standard will also be implemented in the future.
"The power system transformation will be led by the Mitsui and Mitsubishi zaibatsus, establishing a new Japan Power Company. In this company, the Japanese government holds 26% of the shares, the Mitsui Zaibatsu holds 11%, the Mitsubishi Zaibatsu holds 8%, and other zaibatsus hold 6%, totaling 51%. Of the remaining 49% of the shares, 15% will be listed and traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, and the remaining 34% will be listed and traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. It is expected to raise 66 billion yen, which is approximately 11 billion US dollars..."
Hearing this number, Ishiwara's lips couldn't help but tighten. This money, after very careful calculation, could be recovered. But such a huge capital investment, for Japan, was tantamount to gambling on the national destiny.
After the Director-General of the Ministry of Industry finished the part on raising power funds, he began the second part, the content of the industrial upgrade.
Japanese industry and experts examined the industrial systems of countries around the world, combined various industrial theories, and summarized Japan's industrial direction. In this plan, the production methods and equipment adopted in many fields have not yet been developed and can only be temporarily replaced by some existing equipment and production methods. But the future of these industries has already been planned in the present. In order to realize these plans, Japan will invest a large amount of capital and research and development strength, and at the same time cooperate with advanced enterprises and research institutions in the Asian Alliance to achieve expectations as soon as possible.
"Japan's industry is a decentralized small-enterprise production model. Efficiency is low, and utilization rates are not high. In order to improve utilization rates, Japanese production enterprises rely heavily on 'craftsmen', that is, skilled personnel. Among the people, these skilled personnel are given a title, called 'Sennin' (Immortal)..."
Ishiwara couldn't help but light a cigarette. There were too many immortals in Japan: screw immortals, nut immortals, bearing immortals, etc. Even those who molded sushi had the title of Sushi Immortal. Having engaged in so many immortals for decades, the industrial results were far inferior to the results of the He Rui government's 10 years of work.
The Director-General of the Ministry of Industry held the same view. "In contrast, the United States and China, whose industrial scales are far larger than Japan's, adopt the assembly line organization model for industrial production as much as possible. On the production line, there is no space for 'xx Immortals', only various engineer groups who are good at using machines and designing machines.
"Taking the automobile production lines of China and the United States as an example, a leading automobile company assembles thousands of parts into a car. The automobile production plant is more responsible for the design of the car, and thousands of professional production factories provide parts to the automobile production plant. For every part, there may be several factories or even a dozen factories competing. Similarly, because there are many automobile factories, each parts factory may also provide parts to several car companies at the same time.
"China and the United States also have a large number of decentralized small businesses like Japan today. The number, scale, and production capacity are all above Japan's, but the industrial model of China and the United States is taking the path of the large-scale production line model.
"Fortunately, with the establishment of the East Asian Economic Community, Japan's advantageous industries have begun to develop rapidly. At this stage, Japan is developing very fast in shipbuilding and precision processing industries, occupying a considerable market share within the East Asian Economic Community. The number of employees in this precision processing industry far exceeds that of traditional family businesses. The number of people in Japanese traditional family businesses is between 3 and 7, while the number of employees in new enterprises formed as Kabushiki Kaisha (joint-stock companies) is between 50 and 100.
"The Ministry of Industry believes that this Japanese enterprise model is very suitable for Japan's characteristics. Although the number of people is not as large as that of American and Chinese enterprises, it can exert the pursuit of perfection in Japanese tradition. It can also ensure the flexibility of the industrial chain.
"The large-scale production line model of China and the United States also has its own problems, which is the problem of product precision. A large number of Japanese small and medium-sized enterprises can provide higher precision parts for Japan's large-scale assembly line production enterprises. After completing the industrial upgrade at this stage, Japan can increase the output of Japanese assembly line products on a new basis..."
Ishiwara subconsciously touched his collar hook. The Japanese government considers problems from an economic perspective. Before becoming Prime Minister, Ishiwara's profession was a soldier. What he saw was the war that was very likely to break out in a few years. The current stage is the best time for Japan's industrial upgrade, and it is also the last window of opportunity. Seizing this opportunity, one can produce at full capacity in the future war era.
Given Japan's status in the East Asian Alliance, if China eats meat, Japan can eat meat soup with quite a few slices of meat added. After a future worldwide war, the victors will be able to enjoy huge returns.
Japan's power system transformation is a national project. The government can raise funds by forming companies and issuing stocks. This greatly alleviates the financial pressure on the Japanese government.
To carry out industrial upgrades for numerous domestic enterprises in Japan, the funds that can be raised from foreign investors are limited, so the Japanese government has to raise funds by issuing bonds, or even operating in debt. But this is also "gambling on national destiny" that Japan is very accustomed to. Betting on the national destiny now and issuing a large amount of debt, these bonds can all turn into huge wealth in the future. In this regard, Japan has a lot of experience. The European War gave Japan a taste of it once.
Finishing this economic discussion, Ishiwara called in General Nagumo and General Yamaguchi. This time, it wasn't the eager Yamaguchi's turn to speak; Nagumo had already taken out a plan. Facing the former Lieutenant General Ishiwara wearing a military uniform, Nagumo didn't feel much pressure. After all, this guy Ishiwara really understood military affairs.
"Prime Minister, according to our judgment, the limit of US conscription is 11 million. Domestic production and logistics can be satisfied by recruiting women into factories, so the US military can maintain a situation of 3.5 million people fighting on the front line for a long time. Without major changes in the war situation, the US military can maintain 1.2 million people fighting on the front line for a long time.
"This year is 1936, and the United States has not proposed a plan to expand military equipment. We set the scenario that the United States starts expanding its army and building ships in 1937. Generally, military expansion is a three-year plan. The United States can possess 24-36 new aircraft carriers and 24 new battleships. Adding the US naval vessels currently in service that can serve until 1940, the United States will possess a navy with 36 battleships and 36 aircraft carriers as the core in 1940."
Speaking of this, Nagumo paused for a moment. This number was the result of a compromise after a full argument between him and the more steady veterans in the army and the radical carrier faction headed by Yamaguchi Tamon and Yamamoto Isoroku, and the one who compromised was Nagumo.
Yamamoto Isoroku and Yamaguchi Tamon, these two guys, demanded that the standard must be based on the United States exerting that terrible industrial capacity, while the more cautious Nagumo hoped to base it on a deduction as close to reality as possible. In the end, Yamaguchi Tamon jumped up in the venue and shouted: "The Prime Minister has an order to use the US upper limit as the standard for deduction. Nagumo-kun, do you want to violate the Prime Minister's order? If you have forgotten the Prime Minister's instructions, I can call the Prime Minister now and ask him to state his views."
Facing such coercion, Nagumo had to compromise. And the result of the compromise was that after the deduction ended, the faces of the more steady veterans turned green. The industrial strength of the United States is number one in the world. At the London Naval Conference, when various countries discussed aircraft carrier tonnage, the US side believed that the maximum tonnage of aircraft carriers was 35,000 tons. Now the Chinese naval aircraft carrier determined by the China-Japan Naval Joint Working Group is also of 35,000 tons tonnage.
A flight wing on a Chinese aircraft carrier is about 100 fighter jets, and the number on a US aircraft carrier is probably similar. The envisioned US Navy would possess 3,600 various fighter jets.
With the industrial strength of the United States, if a full-scale war really breaks out and the US situation is unfavorable, the United States can start construction on 36 aircraft carriers in one year. Maintaining a force of 1.2 million on the front line, the United States can conduct a war of attrition with the East Asian Alliance for a long time that is unimaginable to Nagumo.
Settling his mind, Nagumo continued: "According to this deduction, the Japanese Navy can provide 12 new battleships and 4 secondary aircraft carriers. If Japan produces new aircraft carriers with all its strength, the number will be about 3. During the war, Japan can produce three 45,000-ton battleships and two 35,000-ton aircraft carriers annually. The rest of the vessels will have to be borne by other countries in the East Asian Alliance."
Listening to Nagumo Chuichi's account, Yamaguchi's eyes shone with excitement. Nagumo was frightened by the scale of such a battlefield, while Yamaguchi couldn't wait to throw himself into such a magnificent war immediately.
Looking at Yamaguchi Tamon's impatient appearance, Ishiwara asked: "Yamaguchi-kun, do you agree with this presupposition?"
Yamaguchi Tamon answered immediately: "Ishiwara-kun, I think it is entirely possible for the United States to complete such armaments. Especially now that the United States has to pay attention to Sino-US trade, the United States is very likely to start building ships in 1937."
Nagumo was speechless. He still believed that it was impossible for the United States to start large-scale ship building in '37, and it was impossible to do so even in 1939. The reason was simple: China had already started building 35,000-ton secondary battleships and 35,000-ton aircraft carriers.
Moreover, Britain had agreed to Germany building a navy at the end of '35, especially allowing Germany to build battleships. So China and France were prepared to announce at the International Naval Treaty Conference to be held in May '36 that China would give up the 4 battleships that France "built for China", and China would begin to build its own capital ships with a total tonnage of 140,000 tons.
In order to cope with the naval pressure from East Asia, the United States might build about 8 aircraft carriers and less than 8 battleships. But to let the United States start construction on 36 aircraft carriers, what kind of lunatic would do such a thing?
At least in Nagumo's view, US President Roosevelt did not look like a lunatic.
Ishiwara didn't care about these things. In his current considerations, the highest priority was the economy, not the military. The future war would definitely not be Japan alone fighting the United States, but the entire East Asian Alliance going to war. China has a population of more than 600 million, and its industrial scale is constantly expanding. Japan will have at most 60 million people by then, one-tenth of China's. It is enough for Japan to provide military power matching its own strength. According to this report, Japan can provide slightly more than one-tenth of the military power, which has already met Ishiwara's needs.
Originally, the report should have ended here, but looking at the worried Nagumo and the jubilant Yamaguchi Tamon, Ishiwara could only say a few more words, "Do you think that if China adopts general mobilization, how large will the army size reach?"
Yamaguchi Tamon answered loudly immediately: "70 million!"
Ishiwara nodded, "Therefore, China will not see a situation of general mobilization. Not only that, during the war, the entire East Asian Alliance will also view the war as a war that has a profound impact on the country, but will not adopt general mobilization. Because, with ordinary mobilization, the total military strength of the war can easily reach 30 million, and the number of reserves will also reach 60 million. That is to say, on the scale of the current earth, the number of troops that can be accommodated on the battle line that the East Asian Coalition Forces can truly deploy on the front line will not exceed 6 million. Even with an army of 30 million, only one-fifth of the troops are fighting on the front line. So, everyone, don't be overly nervous."
Hearing this, Nagumo's expression improved a little, while Yamaguchi Tamon was even more delighted. Any commander wants to fight a war with sufficient troops and excellent equipment. The current size of the US federal army is less than 300,000. On such a scale, no matter how the army is expanded, the equipment and quality of the US military cannot exceed that of the East Asian Alliance.
Now in the East Asian Alliance, North Korea has a standing army of 100,000, and Ryukyu has a police force of less than 1,000. These two can be ignored.
Japan now has a standing army of 210,000 in the land, sea, and air forces, of which the navy and air force add up to 130,000. China has a standing army of 810,000, of which the Army is 590,000, the Air Force is 140,000, and the Navy is 80,000. These armies are all taking the high-tech route. Officers enlist at least as college graduates, non-commissioned officers are high school students, and ordinary soldiers are also junior high school students. That is, 9th-grade graduates.
Such military quality is also much stronger than the entire US military. Although the United States is also carrying out large-scale universal compulsory education, the United States is vast and sparsely populated, with a large population in rural areas, as well as villages and towns in Chinese and Japanese standards. And villages and towns in Chinese and Japanese standards are "cities" in the United States.
This is also the reason why the nominal urban population of the United States is so large. The United States regards "cities" of the American standard as urban population. And the educational level of this urban population is worrying. Many people seem to have received compulsory education, but these villages and towns do not have content that particularly requires reading and writing, leading to many primary school or even junior high school graduates in statistics having reading barriers (dyslexia/illiteracy). That is to say, this group of people are actually educated illiterates.
In comparison, due to the particularity of Chinese characters, as long as Chinese people master 800 Chinese characters, they have basically no reading barriers, and can communicate smoothly through writing.
Therefore, the quality of soldiers in China and Japan exceeds that of the United States. If war breaks out, the odds of winning are extremely high.