Chapter 678: A Clear Future (Part 5)
Volume 6: Great Depression Era · Chapter 119
Professor Franz, of Northern European descent, had ancestors who immigrated to the United States five generations ago. Now teaching International Relations at Columbia University, he wore a monocle, looking cold and serious, possessing that characteristic German rationality.
Sitting opposite President Roosevelt, Professor Franz quickly began his explanation. "Mr. President, granting the Philippines the same status as Puerto Rico can ensure a bridgehead for the United States in Asia. The consumption power of the East Asian League is already approaching that of the entire Europe, second only to the United States. From a geopolitical perspective, China is very close to the Philippines. With the development of the East Asian League, it will soon surpass the United States' influence in the Philippines. Once the United States loses the Philippines, it will be thoroughly driven out of Asia.
"This huge Asian market determines the future of the United States, and the current relationship between the United States and the Philippines cannot allow the United States to maintain its influence in Asia.
"As for the reactions of East Asia and Southeast Asia, from a geopolitical perspective, Britain will cautiously welcome it, the Netherlands will be relatively welcoming, and France will not oppose it. For Asia, the United States is an extraterritorial country. The United States strengthening its presence in the Philippines means that the Netherlands, Britain, and France can use the United States' relationship to form a balance against East Asia. And the United States can also balance between Southeast Asia and East Asia.
"At this time, the United States will hold a very proactive position..."
After listening to Professor Franz's explanation, Roosevelt raised his question. "Will China have a fierce reaction to this?"
"I think China will oppose it, but Mr. President, have you noticed the territorial claims of the 11-dash line proposed by China? Several large islands and reefs among them are right next to the Philippines. Do you think China, having made such territorial claims, has no ideas about the Philippines? Up to now, the Chinese in the Philippines still possess great influence. I think these are all forces suppressing the United States' influence in Asia."
Hearing this, Roosevelt began to think. Of course, the United States could persecute Chinese nationals and expatriates in the Philippines now, but the current China was no longer the Qing Dynasty; China could not sit idly by. Although China was unlikely to launch a war against the United States, Sino-US trade was developing rapidly, and China was soon to become the United States' largest trading partner. Hostility between the two sides would greatly affect American exports.
After sending Professor Franz away, Roosevelt made up his mind to push for the proposal on the Philippines' status. Even if it did not succeed this time, at least it could greatly enhance pro-American sentiment in the Philippines. From an economic perspective, the United States could not afford to lose Asia either.
On March 4, 1936, the Philippines status proposal was somewhat reluctantly submitted to Congress by the Democratic Party. That same day, He Rui received the notification from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He Rui looked at the report and sneered. It was obvious that this fellow Roosevelt was a warmonger. If one were to speak of the instigator of World War II, Roosevelt was definitely the biggest driving force behind the scenes.
Since Roosevelt's attitude was determined, He Rui had nothing more to say. It just so happened that Li Runshi had been the Secretary of the Shaanxi Provincial Committee for three years. His achievements were great, and the controversy was equally great. It was a good time to transfer Li Runshi back to become a member of the Military Commission, or to become a Vice Premier. In this surging era, it was also time to give comrades who were good at struggle and courageous in struggle the opportunity to display their strength.
On March 5, 1936, Japanese Prime Minister Ishihara Kanji convened a cabinet meeting. Since the United States had expressed a stance of never giving up Asia, Japan's path had been clearly shaped by external forces.
The Minister of Industry requested to speak first. He did not talk about the international and domestic situation in Japan, but went straight to the point: "The Ministry of Industry believes that the unification of Japan's electric power can definitely be completed within two years. The Ministry of Industry is already prepared for the machine tool replacement plan to be carried out simultaneously with the power system transformation, to conduct a thorough elimination of Japan's old machine tools."
Hearing this statement, several ministers, including the Minister of Finance, changed their expressions. The frequencies of the power systems in Kanto and Kansai, Japan, were different, being 60 Hertz and 50 Hertz respectively. This was a sequela caused by Japan introducing power technologies from both Britain and the United States respectively.
The reason it had continued until now was mainly that the Japanese central government had no money. Even if they barely wanted to do it, they met with opposition from local forces. Regardless of whether the power in Kanto or Kansai was transformed, it would subsidize one side. The other side was simply unwilling to bear such costs.
The plan proposed by the Minister of Industry to completely eliminate old machine tools domestically was indeed fair, a good deed that would benefit the present and future generations. But this money was already the sum of the Japanese government's fiscal revenue for several years. How exactly was this cost to be recovered?
The Minister of Finance showed no fear at all. "Prime Minister, may I ask where this money will come from?"
Ishihara was very confident. "Issue 10-year national bonds."
The Minister of Finance felt like he was going to faint. Such a sum of national bonds—let alone whether they could be sold out. Even if they were sold out, would there really be the ability to repay them in 10 years?
Ishihara added at this time: "There is no need to issue them all at once; issuing them in multiple batches is no problem."
Hearing Ishihara say this, and thinking that Ishihara had just returned from China, most Japanese cabinet members guessed that Ishihara must have reached some consensus with He Rui. Even so, the risk of doing this was too great.
But Ishihara could only ask the cabinet members to do it, without giving further explanation. Because Ishihara knew very well that as long as he truly promoted Japan's military expansion and war preparation work, he could get He Rui's support. But if the words of military expansion and war preparation were told to the cabinet members now, the news would definitely leak out, and at that time, He Rui would not be polite to Japan.
The cabinet meeting lasted a whole day, and finally, the domestic affairs of Japan were roughly straightened out. After the meeting ended, Ishihara invited Nagumo Chuichi and Yamaguchi Tamon to a meeting in a small conference room. These two belonged to the aircraft carrier faction and the battleship faction respectively, and originally should not have been able to piss in the same pot. But both of them had already felt the atmosphere of war. Nagumo Chuichi didn't even sit down before saying to Ishihara: "Prime Minister, after Germany successfully marched into the Rhineland, the countries surrounding Germany will lose confidence in France. As long as Germany rapidly expands its army, it can gradually isolate France."
Yamaguchi Tamon nodded repeatedly. Back then, Japan had seized the opportunity to suppress the influence of the Qing Dynasty bit by bit like this, and rapidly expanded its army. The trick Germany was pulling looked truly incomparable familiar to the Japanese military, only hindered by the current situation, they could not directly bring it out as a case study. And since Ishihara was known as Japan's strategist, there was no need to mention it specifically to Ishihara.
Ishihara, however, said: "Gentlemen, have you not noticed that the United States has proposed granting the Philippines a higher status, giving it the same status as Puerto Rico?"
As soon as these words came out, both Nagumo Chuichi and Yamaguchi Tamon were stunned. While Nagumo Chuichi was silent in thought, Yamaguchi Tamon had already jumped up and shouted: "War! Then there is only war!"
Nagumo Chuichi did not like Yamaguchi Tamon's impetuous personality and couldn't help but frown. But Nagumo agreed very much with Yamaguchi Tamon's view. In the present where all the great powers except China had colonies, the Philippines, as a colony of the United States, would trigger a war if lost, but the intensity of the war would be controlled. The Philippines was just snatched by the United States from Spain 40 years ago; the United States would not fight to the death for the Philippines.
The existence of the Philippines was a huge flank threat when the East Asian League went south. Unless the United States reached a consensus with the East Asian League beforehand, the East Asian League would inevitably have to move against the Philippines.
Once the Philippines became a local government of the United States, almost like a state, the war would turn into a total national war, one where a winner and loser must be fought out. The United States could lose a colony, but it could not lose its national territory.
This proposal proved the United States' determination to intervene in the Asian situation. Since the United States had already made its attitude clear, even if this proposal did not pass, the East Asian League would have to regard the United States as an enemy country.
Nagumo Chuichi had been to the United States. At this moment, the developed American urban clusters and large numbers of factories he had seen came to his mind. Although he felt in his heart that the United States' attitude was absolutely unacceptable, Nagumo still asked: "Prime Minister, could there be some misunderstanding?"
Before Ishihara could answer, Yamaguchi Tamon had already shouted: "Nagumo-kun, what misunderstanding could there be? Let's look at the history of the United States. What are they best at? It is picking the fruits after the great powers have fought to exhaustion. Even if the United States seemingly sincerely explains to us now, saying that the United States will absolutely not participate in the war. But while we are waging war, the United States will go all out to expand its army and prepare for war. With the United States' war potential, they will build a large amount of equipment. Once the war reaches the point where our peak strength has passed, the United States will definitely take action. Rather than always guarding against the United States, it is better to completely eliminate the United States' strongholds in the Pacific from the very beginning. Then, we have no necessity whatsoever to take the United States' sophistry seriously."
Nagumo Chuichi did not answer immediately. He considered the United States' industrial strength and truly had no way to judge how much strength the United States could actually bring out. It was only then that Nagumo Chuichi discovered that the United States' powerful industrial strength had caused enormous psychological pressure on him.
At this time, Ishihara finally opened his mouth and said: "You should base your war simulations on the United States mobilizing fully. Do not make any underestimations. With the United States' strength, they have the possibility of mobilizing an army of 10 million. Conduct the deduction based on the United States' full strength, without any reservation."
Nagumo Chuichi felt uncomfortable in his heart and actually failed to answer immediately. Yamaguchi Tamon, however, had already saluted Ishihara. "Please rest assured, Prime Minister. I will definitely produce a report without any wishful thinking."
After speaking, Yamaguchi Tamon did not even look at Nagumo Chuichi, but just stood straight, waiting for the reaction of others.
Nagumo Chuichi knew he had no other choice, so he also replied: "May I ask, Prime Minister, how long can you give us to prepare?"
"Half a month," Ishihara replied. In Ishihara's judgment, China, as the main force fighting the United States, would probably also produce a comparison of basic strengths within half a month. What Japan needed to do now was to consider everything comprehensively. As long as Japan could arrange its own strength well, there was no need to worry that the bonds for industrial upgrading could not be sold.