Theory of "Friendly Nations" Surprise (2)
Volume 6: Great Depression Era · Chapter 100
The Chinese branch of the China-Japan Naval Liaison Group was located in Dalian. This city hosted Chinese shipyards, a naval base, and a naval aviation training base. The Dalian Naval Academy was the navy's institution of higher learning. Chief of the General Staff Hu Xiushan arrived in Dalian in June 1933 to hear reports from the Liaison Group.
Japan also sent Yamaguchi Tamon as a representative to attend this meeting. Yamamoto Isoroku was originally scheduled to come, but as the Commander-in-Chief of the Combined Fleet, he had been invited to visit the United States, so he did not attend.
Yamaguchi Tamon felt this arrangement was for the best. That fellow Yamamoto thought about a decisive battle with the "Anglo-American beasts" every day. If he had attended, he likely would have said something untimely.
Inside the conference room, a projector displayed the envisioned naval carrier battle group on a large screen. At the center of the formation were three completed aircraft carrier designs. Yamaguchi Tamon was very fond of the Chinese design for a carrier with a standard displacement of 35,000 tons. A 35,000-ton carrier could carry one air group consisting of various combat aircraft, totaling 90 planes. In addition to fighters, there were 5-8 reconnaissance aircraft and 6 helicopters, the prototypes of which had just been completed. The total number of embarked aircraft was around 104.
Surrounding the three carriers in the first ring were 2-3 fast battleships and 4-5 cruisers. The second ring was an iron wall composed of 18-24 destroyers. Typically, three destroyers formed a section, and two sections formed a squadron. In combat, tasks were executed at the squadron level.
Yamaguchi Tamon himself had participated in the research on carrier operations, and he fully supported this operational model. However, he soon heard more controversial content: exactly how the Army Air Force would coordinate with Naval Aviation.
Construction on the Chinese carriers had not yet begun, but the prototypes for the carrier-based aircraft had already been completed. According to the parameters Yamaguchi Tamon knew, this fighter could achieve a ferry range of 3,300 kilometers solely on internal fuel. With external drop tanks, its ferry range could reach 4,400 kilometers.
This meant that if a carrier operated within 1,500 kilometers of its coastal or island bases, it could rely on land-based fighters for protection. The fighters taking off from the carrier could then launch attacks on targets 1,300 kilometers away. This created a safe combat radius of 2,800 kilometers.
What was the concept of 2,800 kilometers? The straight-line distance from Taiwan to Singapore was 3,096 kilometers. Now that the borders of East Asia had been restored to those of the old era, Japan possessed quite a few islands in the Pacific. As long as airbases were built on those islands, under the escort of these ultra-long-range fighters, the East Asian Coalition Forces could receive uninterrupted air support even without a carrier battle group. They could easily sweep across all of Southeast Asia and seize Australia and New Zealand. The US Pacific Fleet coming to the rescue would be beaten to pieces.
Since the topic of discussion was the employment of carrier battle groups, but the carrier's role didn't seem prominent, the discussion became very strange.
The naval officers present also understood the crux of the issue. Everyone's discussion became very cautious, afraid of saying something wrong. Yamaguchi Tamon had a rough personality; seeing their hesitation, he spoke up. "If we go to war with the enemy, the primary operational target of the carrier battle group in the early stages is to prevent the enemy's main fleet from entering the combat zone. This aligns perfectly with the purpose of building carrier battle groups."
Soldiers all looked forward to distinguished service, so Yamaguchi Tamon's statement was hard for many officers to accept. But Chief of the General Staff Hu Xiushan looked at Yamaguchi Tamon and greatly appreciated the man's decisiveness.
Before the Chinese fighter prototypes were produced, Hu Xiushan had calmly formulated plans based on the parameters of existing main fighters. After the prototypes emerged, in the southward advance plan formulated by the General Staff Department under Hu Xiushan's leadership, the navy's role became somewhat difficult to position. The current consensus was that the navy would escort troop transports. Beyond that, there were various views on the navy's employment.
Yamaguchi Tamon's simple and clear line of thought seemed to make the southward operation plan lack flexibility. After all, naval mobility could allow for a great many operational arrangements. But Hu Xiushan agreed with Yamaguchi Tamon's view: as long as the reinforcing US fleet could be kept out of the war zone, China would be in a winning position. This was the correct mindset for formulating war plans.
The discussion continued in this manner. During lunch, Hu Xiushan and Yamaguchi Tamon sat at the same table. Hu Xiushan's Japanese was average, and Yamaguchi Tamon's Chinese was equally ordinary. But relying on this level of foreign language skills, the two still carried on a very fluent exchange.
"Yamaguchi-kun, how do you think the priority of the Philippines should be considered?"
"Chief of Staff Hu, I believe we should prioritize attacking the Philippines to complete the defensive system of the Philippines and the Pacific island bases. The US Pacific Fleet can indeed pass through the Panama Canal, go around Africa, and join the war from the Indian Ocean direction. But if the US really does that, by the time the Pacific Fleet arrives in the Indian Ocean, I'm afraid the war will already be over. Therefore, the US Pacific Fleet must head for the Philippines as soon as the war breaks out. Even if they stay in Hawaii, they will eventually be besieged and completely annihilated. So the priority of attacking the Philippines must absolutely not be lower than attacking the Indochina Peninsula."
Hu Xiushan nodded slightly while eating a piece of potato and beef.
Yamaguchi Tamon spoke with increasing excitement. "Of course, I believe taking the entire Philippines won't be easy. Looking at the troop allocation, I think by the time we completely capture the Philippines, the East Asian Coalition might already be attacking Australia."
Hu Xiushan continued to nod. This was the key to the problem. China was currently building civilian ships on a large scale; sea vessels over 3,000 tons could become the main force for southward transport. The success or failure of the southward advance was mainly a contest of transport capacity. Although Chinese shipyards were already operating at full load, China's foundation was too thin, and the newly built merchant ships couldn't even meet the robust domestic demand.
After expressing his views as a naval expert, Yamaguchi Tamon asked his own question. "Chief of Staff Hu, how does China judge the timing for the southward advance? I'm not referring to the opportunity for war."
After speaking, Yamaguchi Tamon began eating his portion of fresh stir-fried chicken. Japan's natural environment was not friendly to animal husbandry, so many Japanese had rarely eaten chicken. It was only in the last two years, with the development of Chinese refrigerated ships, that chicken had started to appear on the Japanese market. Yamaguchi Tamon liked chicken very much; eating in China gave him a feeling that a meal wasn't a meal without chicken.
Hu Xiushan replied, "Only when the transport capacity level is sufficient will the conditions for war begin to be met."
Although the words were few, Yamaguchi Tamon understood China's General Staff Department's absolute emphasis on logistics. Chewing the delicious chicken leg meat and thinking of those idiots in Japan, Yamaguchi Tamon made up his mind. He swallowed the chicken in his mouth and asked, "Has the outstanding fighter plane been viewed by the Chinese side as a decisive battle weapon?"
Hu Xiushan froze for a moment, then the corners of his mouth turned up slightly. To an outsider, this expression looked a bit disdainful. But those familiar with Hu Xiushan knew this was his expression of dumbfounded amusement.
Hu Xiushan was indeed amused. He certainly knew about the "decisive battle weapon" line of thought within the Japanese military. Whether it was planes or warships, Japan expected to obtain a type of superior weapon to help them win the war.
Analysis reports from the National Defense Force believed that this strange persistence regarding decisive battle weapons was likely because Japan lacked the capacity for sustained warfare. The true meaning of a decisive battle weapon was not victory, but a very low-cost victory. Only this kind of victory was a level of war Japan could afford. As long as the cost was high, even if Japan won every battle, it couldn't win the war.
Judging by Yamaguchi Tamon's expression when he asked the question, he likely didn't agree with the view on decisive battle weapons. Hu Xiushan asked calmly, "I don't think there is any such thing as a decisive battle weapon. The combat capability of a new fighter is just one part of war, and perhaps not even the most important part. If we are talking about air combat, the only valuable thinking is how to secure air superiority."
Yamaguchi Tamon didn't answer immediately, just nodding as he ate. Because Yamaguchi Tamon really wanted to ask a question: "Are expensive large-scale equipment like battleships and aircraft carriers consumables?"
In Japan, naval officers actually knew that not only small warships were consumables, but large warships were also consumables; war was a contest of attrition. Although Japanese naval officers knew this, they couldn't overcome the psychological issue and still held special ideas about naval equipment.
Although Japanese naval thinking had improved a lot recently, Yamaguchi Tamon believed this change was likely because Japanese military men thought China would bear the vast majority of the losses. Losing someone else's equipment—while they might say "what a pity, it shouldn't have happened" with their mouths—was very easy to accept in their hearts.
Yamaguchi Tamon wanted to ask Hu Xiushan, but felt it was unnecessary. If He Rui had appointed a general who cared deeply about equipment losses as Chief of the General Staff, then Yamaguchi Tamon's view of He Rui would be completely wrong.
Hu Xiushan asked another question. "How long does the US Navy need to train for its basic level to reach the current quality of the Japanese Navy?"
Yamaguchi Tamon thought for a moment. "Five years or more."
Hu Xiushan showed no reaction. The purpose of this question was to understand the impact of the US Navy's shipbuilding plan on its strength. With the US Navy's current strength, even if all naval equipment were replaced with the newest warships, the East Asian Coalition could easily defeat them. If the US Navy wanted to win the war, it had to build a navy of unprecedented scale.
If Yamaguchi Tamon's judgment was correct, then within five years after the start of the US Navy's massive shipbuilding plan, its combat effectiveness would still be very average. That meant the Chinese Navy would have to fully expand its personnel numbers by 1935 at the latest.
The two communicated easily and both felt they had gained much. In the afternoon, the senior officers of the China-Japan Naval Liaison Group continued their discussion, still failing to reach a widely accepted view.
But no one particularly cared. This kind of operational envisioning was preparation every country frequently undertook; there were bound to be various divergences initially. As equipment arrived and the situation of the target country changed, the operational plan would become increasingly reliable.
After the meeting ended, Hu Xiushan received a report from the Military Commission on his way back: "Activities regarding anti-hatred education in the military have already commenced."
Hu Xiushan said nothing. He couldn't predict what the result of this anti-hatred education would be. The goal of this education was to let the army understand the difference between the impulse of hatred and the demands of justice.
When humans faced things they couldn't stand, they always had an impulse to destroy. The National Defense Force would liberate the world in the future, and what they would face was not just things they couldn't stand, but a great many evil objects. For example, Britain's evil colonial rule.
The British people who supported Britain's evil colonial rule didn't think they were evil; they thought Britain brought civilization to the world. The deaths caused during the process of bringing civilization were just some tragedies. Therefore, the countries and peoples who endured these tragedies should forget them and only remember the civilization the British brought.
Hu Xiushan himself felt this way of thinking was utterly shameless, and he could be sure that normal Chinese people would find it utterly shameless as well. But the passion of justice could easily turn into hatred. If one couldn't understand hatred and control it, the retaliatory actions triggered by hatred would lead to massacres and other such behaviors.
Humans could never think of themselves as evil. Once a massacre occurred, they would find various excuses to justify the act. But a massacre was a massacre; whitewashing it would inevitably lead to moral bankruptcy. So conducting anti-hatred education from the start, letting the troops recognize that the demands of justice were directed against criminals and not against ordinary people who had wrong ideas but no wrong actions, was very important ideological construction.
But ideological construction was difficult work, and the comrades responsible for it were more likely to fall into a thankless situation. Because some people simply couldn't turn their brains around; such people would be cleared out of the army. And those cleared out often had outstanding military capabilities. Thus, this practice would meet with widespread questioning.
Hu Xiushan felt that all he could do was not cause trouble and not hold back the comrades executing the ideological education.
When Hu Xiushan returned to the capital, his old subordinate Li Liankui came to find him. Li Liankui had performed outstandingly in operations against Japan and was a fierce general.
"Chief of Staff, you know those people from the Political Department seem to be deliberately finding fault," Li Liankui said loudly.
"What is the specific situation?" Hu Xiushan asked.
"It would be fine if they just did education, no one would say anything. But several comrades have been labeled by the Political Department as having extremist thoughts and were suspended for reflection! What is there to reflect on about fighting the Japanese or the British? Did we fight the wrong people?"
Li Liankui finished venting his dissatisfaction in one breath, then stared at Hu Xiushan with burning eyes, obviously waiting for Hu Xiushan to step in and uphold justice.
Hu Xiushan's face went cold. "Li Liankui, I ask you. Does the Party command the gun, or does the gun command the Party?"
Li Liankui was stunned. He had thought Hu Xiushan would support him, but he didn't expect to be reprimanded. Li Liankui got a bit anxious and said loudly, "Commander, I'm not saying there's a problem with the Central Committee, I'm saying these people have problems."
Since Hu Xiushan had made a decision, he naturally wouldn't change his attitude. He said coldly, "Since you think they have problems, write a letter to the Political Department or speak at the Party Committee meeting. What do you want by coming to me?"
Li Liankui clearly failed to understand Hu Xiushan's meaning. He was an old subordinate of Hu Xiushan and was already a Major General in 1925. Seeing Hu Xiushan's displeasure, Li Liankui didn't get confused but instead pleaded, "Commander, I just want you to talk to the Political Department. If you speak, they will listen."
Hu Xiushan originally thought Li Liankui came to complain, but seeing him behave like this, Hu Xiushan began to feel that the Political Department's ideological education work this time might actually be very useful. Li Liankui clearly didn't understand what "the Party commands the gun" meant. The Party commanding the gun didn't mean the officers were all Party members. It meant the Party responsible for ideology must build the army into one that conformed to the Party's ideology. In this process, soldiers had to accept the Party's education and truly implement it. If soldiers only accepted the ideology they wanted to accept and rejected what they didn't, that would be the gun commanding the Party.
But Li Liankui was talented, and Hu Xiushan still cherished talent. He could only darken his face. "Li Liankui, I order you to go to the comrades of the Political Department right now, submit your opinions to them, and under their guidance, carefully study the documents and understand the spirit. If you don't listen, I will immediately suspend you and have someone escort you there. Will you go yourself, or be escorted? Choose!"
Li Liankui was greatly shocked, looking at Hu Xiushan dumbly, obviously not expecting things to develop to this extent. After a while, a look of grievance appeared on Li Liankui's face. "Commander, killing enemies—where was I wrong?"
Hu Xiushan hadn't attended the meeting and didn't know exactly what happened. But he could be sure that if Li Liankui had only expressed the view "what is wrong with killing enemies," there would absolutely not be the current situation. In other words, beneath Li Liankui's straightforward appearance, he was either truly confused or playing petty tricks, thinking he could fool Hu Xiushan into suppressing the Political Department's work.
He wanted to have someone drag Li Liankui away directly, but Hu Xiushan still didn't want to strike Li Liankui so hard because he cherished his talent. Calling over his guard, Hu Xiushan ordered, "Escort Li Liankui to the Political Department now. Let them argue however they want. Finally, ask the Political Department to give me a report explaining exactly what happened."
The guard was personnel assigned to military commanders by a specialized department. Even though his rank was far lower than Li Liankui's, the guard didn't hesitate at all. He walked up to Li Liankui and asked, "Major General Li, let's go now."
Li Liankui certainly knew the guard's authority and responsibility. He wanted to say something more, but just sighed long and hard. "Sigh, Commander, I think you're afraid." After saying that, he turned and left.
Watching the guard follow Li Liankui out of the office, Hu Xiushan felt truly unhappy in his heart. The army's ideological work had turned into this mess—what was the Political Department doing!
The next morning, while Hu Xiushan was working, someone came in to report, "Chief of Staff, someone posted a poster titled 'Theory of Friendly Nations Surprise'."
Hu Xiushan hadn't seen this article, but hearing the name, he felt it was mocking the Civilization Party's recent training work. Radical thoughts in the army were indeed expanding. Whether it was "liberating the globe" or "conquering the globe," many people's views were indeed out of tune with the Party Central Committee.
Could this matter really turn into a big incident? Hu Xiushan was forced to consider this.