Chapter 658: The Theory of Friendly Nations' Astonishment (1)
Volume 6: Great Depression Era · Chapter 99
President Roosevelt listened earnestly as Secretary of State Hull recounted his experiences in China, occasionally interjecting with questions. Hull soon realized that the President was particularly concerned about whether China had issued any verbal threats against the United States. Roosevelt's inquiries were so serious that Hull had to pause and search his memory before answering.
"Mr. President, I believe the arrogance displayed by China was truly impressionable. Regarding threats, I believe that China is currently so arrogant that they disdain to even issue threats."
Mentioning arrogance, Secretary Hull involuntarily recalled Minister of Commerce Li Shiguang's contemptuous description of Jehovah and Jesus. If Li Shiguang was speaking his true mind, this arrogant Chinese official had suggested that if Jehovah and Jesus wanted to prove their existence, they would have to appear specifically before him to prove to Li Shiguang that God exists.
According to Li Shiguang's logic, even if Secretary Hull claimed to be a believer and conveyed Western concepts to him, Li would only believe that Hull existed, but would not believe Hull's words just because of Hull's existence.
Thinking deeper, one could easily reach a conclusion: Western discourse held no credibility before Chinese officials like Li Shiguang. They would only believe what they chose to believe.
Secretary Hull felt this was a very serious threat, so he relayed this to President Roosevelt.
Hearing this, the corners of Roosevelt's mouth lifted slightly, revealing a meaningful smile. Hull was somewhat surprised to see it.
Since his paralysis, Franklin D. Roosevelt rarely smiled. On one hand, his mindset had indeed changed as a disabled man. On the other, Roosevelt was fifty-one years old, and the American upper class generally believed that at this age, smiling was a form of ingratiation. Hull believed that whether due to age, status, or physical condition, Roosevelt had no need to smile.
Seeing that meaningful smile now, Hull felt that Roosevelt had his own plans regarding China. He stopped his narration and waited for the President to speak.
Roosevelt waited a moment, and seeing Hull switch from narrator to listener, asked in a rather aggressive tone, "Hull, do you think the United States can withdraw from Asia?"
Secretary Hull naturally thought not. But at this moment, he was more focused on the President's tone and demeanor. The long-faced American President's expression was blank, his gaze sharp and indifferent. For some reason, Hull was suddenly reminded of a rattlesnake with its head raised that he had seen while traveling in the Nevada desert. Roosevelt's question was as full of aggression as that rattlesnake.
"Mr. President, I do not believe we can withdraw from Asia," Hull replied.
Roosevelt nodded. "Hull, in the newspapers you saw in China, the Chinese seem to be continuously attacking colonialism."
Hull nodded, agreeing with Roosevelt's observation. If Chinese newspapers only occasionally attacked colonialism, or if the Chinese government "played a card" out of thin air before a conference to manufacture pressure on the US or European nations, one could discuss it as a tactic.
But according to intelligence collected by the State Department, the Chinese public had consistently opposed colonialism, and the Chinese government had always expressed a stance against racism. Although colonialism was not necessarily equivalent to racism, the racism of the white Western world and colonialism overlapped to a high degree. From this perspective, the Chinese government was indeed leveraging private media.
"Hull, I am considering whether to make the Philippines a state of the United States," Roosevelt voiced his consideration.
Hull froze. For a moment, he suspected he had misheard. The Philippines was a colony the US had seized from Spain, and there were views within the US to abandon it and let it become independent. But turning the Philippines into a US state? That was too imaginative.
Roosevelt could see Hull's astonishment and had to explain his reasoning. "Hull, East Asia has effectively unified, and China and the Soviet Union have built security and mutual trust. Although these relationships seem fragile, according to my observation, the He Rui government is building them through a common market. This relationship is even more stable than the future world relationships envisioned by the United States. Currently, the only thing in the world that can compare to it is the Imperial Preference System."
The so-called Imperial Preference System—more accurately, the 'British Imperial Preference System'—was adopted by Britain to counter the economic crisis, abandoning the free trade system. Since Britain levied protective tariffs, it inevitably affected the dominions and colonies with close economic ties to Britain. To prevent economic relations between Britain and its dominions and colonies from being harmed, and to protect and expand British markets in these countries through further trade development, Britain established the Imperial Preference System, which was effectively a customs union.
Hull hadn't expected Roosevelt to have time to think about these strategic issues during the Hundred Days, and he felt quite excited. The main job of the Secretary of State was diplomacy, and this was exactly the field where Hull could fully display his abilities.
But Hull was also a bit worried about whether Roosevelt had enough energy to face international issues right now. Before Hull could ask, Roosevelt offered an explanation. "Morgan and Rockefeller have come to the White House twice recently to talk. The economists employed by their enterprises, based on statistics of American consumer power and the current state of the US economy, have made a judgment: US unemployment will decrease in the short term, but the unemployment situation will not be thoroughly reversed in the long term. To solve America's problems, we must find larger markets for the United States."
Hull himself did not believe Roosevelt was a communist, but hearing this, he sensed a strong flavor of Chinese economic theory. In the He Rui government's economic theory, national consumption capacity was important economic data. The basic principle was simple: China was not a welfare state, and people's income came from labor. Assessing the consumption capacity of the Chinese public was very beneficial for economic management.
The reason European and American countries hadn't done this before was partly because this mode of economic statistics was very labor-intensive. Beyond technical reasons, if one were to scrutinize national consumption capacity, one would need income statistics for every class. Once such data was published, it would easily incite social hostility.
That Roosevelt was speaking this way now was proof enough that to solve America's economic problems, he was truly disregarding everything else.
Hull dared not be completely sure, so he asked, "Mr. President, I would like to confirm. The unemployment rate you mentioned—was it Morgan's economists or Rockefeller's economists?"
"Economists from both sides made assessments based on national consumption capacity and the economic management model promoted by the government. The current government model has indeed raised American national income to a certain extent, but this increase in income is far from enough to cover American production capacity. According to assessments from both sets of economists, the US unemployment rate can probably be reduced from 25% to around 15%. After entering this range, due to insufficient operating rates, a large number of American people will remain unemployed."
Although Hull didn't understand economics well, he could still smell the scent of Chinese economics even more clearly from this assessment method. But since he really didn't understand economics, he simply listened quietly to the President's explanation.
"The United States needs a global market, but the global market has already been carved up. The US can accept exchanging its domestic market for foreign markets, but the areas we can provide are high-tech fields. The US is happy to purchase the world's most advanced civilian products. But the scale of this portion of the market is still too small," President Roosevelt continued to explain.
Hull nodded, though inwardly he disapproved. There had been a saying in recent years that if any civilian product appeared in Europe, a similar imitation would appear in New York the next week. So while the US was happy to buy the world's most advanced civilian products, the scale was always small.
If faced with trade where China purchased large amounts of American grain, the US would grant China certain market access rights. As for whether Chinese goods were competitive in the US market, that depended on China's own competitiveness.
The mercantilist United States didn't actually want to expand overseas markets so much as it wanted overseas dumping grounds. Now, with the integration of East Asia, the last market that could potentially become a dumping ground for the US had its own master. Finding a new market was truly difficult.
Given this situation, the views of the American upper class and academic elite were very radical. The US might not actively provoke war, but given the chance, they would destroy the Versailles system at all costs, thoroughly weaken the two colonial powers of Britain and France, and turn their vast colonies into independent countries that could engage in free trade with the United States.
Hull asked his question. "Mr. President, do you think China, which opposes racism and colonialism, will be our competitor?"
Roosevelt nodded. "Hull, China has already made the Korean model viewed as a success!"
That China was a competitor in dismantling British and French colonies was a common view in American think tanks. China was right next to India and Southeast Asia. Even if China wasn't powerful enough yet, it had the ability to seize the advantage when the world situation changed, liberating India and Southeast Asia first, and relying on geographical proximity to control the foreign trade of these newly established countries.
The US was too far from India and Southeast Asia; competing with China in these regions would be too difficult. The populations of India and Southeast Asia combined totaled 500 million. Adding East Asia and the Soviet Union, that would be an economic sphere of 1.4 billion people. The global population was currently 2 billion. If the US were excluded from this market of 70% of the population, all that remained was Africa.
Whenever he thought of Africa, Roosevelt felt powerless. The US had built a model nation in Africa: Liberia. This black nation's system was entirely copied from the United States, yet its economy was a mess. Moreover, America's proud separation of powers—the Senate and House system—couldn't function in Liberia at all. Instead, it was America's racist system that operated perfectly well there.
The US had sent a portion of its domestic black population directly to Liberia. Facing the local Liberians, who were also black, this group did not lead them onto a path of common prosperity and development. Instead, they designated the locals as a lower class and themselves as the upper class, establishing a de facto system of slavery.
The US Democratic Party was originally the party of the Southern Confederate states. Roosevelt truly hadn't expected that establishing the US Northern political system in Liberia would yield the Southern Confederacy's slavery system. Only in terms of racism did Liberia inherit America's true teachings. Those "seeds" sent by the US viewed themselves as coming from an industrial nation, and having more or less some white American blood, they regarded local Liberians as an inferior race, and likewise viewed blacks in surrounding countries as inferior.
As an aristocrat with incredibly pure "American blue blood," Roosevelt still cared about face. He could not, under any circumstances, promote Liberia as America's model in Africa. In other words, America's effort to use a supported African model to dismantle the British and French colonial systems from within had effectively failed.
Compared to America's failed attempt, China was gradually winning the favor of anti-colonialists worldwide by fostering the Korean model. Although isolationist sentiment was high within the US, the upper-class elites knew that if the US continued to seal itself off on the North American continent, it was doomed to have no future. The US had to go global and possess influence commensurate with its current economic strength.
Hull was one of these upper-class elites, and he fully supported the concept of America stepping out. Since President Roosevelt was resolved, Hull probed no further and said, "Mr. President, do you think the Philippines will be attracted by China's Korean model?"
Roosevelt's expression remained calm but turned grim. "Intelligence provided by the Governor-General of the Philippines indicates that the number of Filipino students studying in China has increased 1,800-fold. In 1924, there were only three Filipinos studying in Chinese universities."
Hull nodded, recalling the dark-skinned foreign students he had seen in Beijing. Secretary Hull felt he didn't have Western arrogance when comparing Chinese and Western universities. If one had to name an advantage of Chinese universities, it was probably their ability to teach how to liberate oneself from colonial oppression. Those dark-skinned students went to Chinese universities for more than just professional courses; they were likely learning other things as well.
Roosevelt continued explaining, "Intelligence also shows that a considerable number of radical Filipino nationalists have also gone to China. And the British side indicates that the number of students from British colonies studying in China has likewise increased hundreds of times. According to white students studying in China, the attitude of these colonial students is very radical. China would certainly be happy to see the US excluded from Asia. The significance of the Philippines to the US is not just as a colony, but as America's bridgehead in Asia."
"Mr. President, I greatly admire your decisiveness." Hull expressed his admiration. He knew he was far less firm than Roosevelt in strategic decisions. Because of this, Hull sincerely stated his judgment. "Mr. President, I believe Congress will never agree to make the Philippines a US state. The Philippines doesn't even have a possibility of obtaining Puerto Rico's status."
Roosevelt's expression grew colder. "We must try! I believe that after the Social Security Act is passed, we must push for this work."
Hull was certain Roosevelt had made up his mind. So far, the Hundred Days' Reform was going well; at least banks had resumed operations, and lending and deposit businesses were complete. The next important task was completing the social security system, determining maximum working hours and minimum wages.
These two laws could only target white adults in cities; child labor, foreign labor, and the "family slaves on farms" that China had criticized would absolutely not enjoy the protection of these laws. Even so, this challenged American tradition. America's traditional freedom was built on the cultural foundation that everything depended on oneself. The state providing security to citizens meant that traditional American freedom was being greatly weakened. American conservatives would certainly not easily accept such fundamental changes.
Hull wanted to continue discussing this issue, but Roosevelt looked somewhat tired. Hull quickly poured a glass of water for him. After thanking him, Roosevelt only moistened his lips slightly with the water, a sight that made Hull feel sympathy and sadness. Due to his paralysis and being fifty-one years old, using the restroom was inconvenient, so Roosevelt's food intake was currently very small.
To cheer Roosevelt up, Hull brought up some interesting news he had learned in China. "Mr. President, the former Minister of Culture of the He Rui government wrote an article titled *The Theory of Friendly Nations' Astonishment* to attack the He Rui government."
"...Hearing the name, it seems to be criticizing He Rui's foreign policy," Roosevelt said, then gently moistened his dry lips again.
Hull nodded, smiling. "Yes, Mr. President. This Minister Zhou is very dissatisfied with the He Rui government's arrest of China's muckrakers. These people wrote a great many articles in newspapers attacking European racist behavior, with very intense language. This triggered in-person protests from the ambassadors of those European countries to the Chinese Foreign Minister. To make a gesture, although the He Rui government didn't appear directly, some of the most excessive fellows were arrested and detained for a few days under charges related to public order..."
After listening to Hull's introduction, Roosevelt's expression revealed incomprehension. In Roosevelt's view, He Rui's diplomatic line was extremely hardline—a view shared by diplomatic elites worldwide. The diplomacy of small countries that seemed blustery was more rude than hardline. He Rui's diplomacy was a steel claw sharp enough to blow a hair apart, sheathed in a soft, silky velvet glove. Japan and Britain had both suffered greatly from it.
It was just that He Rui's diplomatic goals were clear and he never dragged things out. Once the goal was achieved, He Rui would immediately end the war. So to ordinary people, He Rui's foreign policy might appear very "humble" at certain stages. But the benefits earned by this superficial humility were greater than fighting dozens of wars. That such a foreign policy would be criticized as "weak"—Roosevelt had to conclude that China had a great many radicals.
Originally, Roosevelt was also considering whether to communicate with China about dismantling the Versailles system. The boiling radical nationalist sentiment within China made Roosevelt hesitate.
He Rui might be a trustworthy person; at least He Rui had sufficient rationality. But every national leader, especially in strongman politics like He Rui's, had to yield to public opinion to gain maximum support. If He Rui were coerced by extreme public opinion...
The competitive relationship between China and the US far outweighed cooperation. Roosevelt decided to wait and see how the situation in China developed.