Chapter 596: The Republic of China Government is Very Concerned (8)
Volume 6: Great Depression Era · Chapter 36
Wu Youping briefly introduced the situation to He Rui over the phone, then added, "I can bring the report over the day after tomorrow at the latest."
He Rui thought for a moment and asked, "What is the shortfall in synthetic ammonia?"
"Pessimistically, 300,000 tons. Optimistically, 50,000 to 150,000 tons."
He Rui answered immediately, "Since the main shortfall is after June, let's buy 50,000 tons first. Fill the basic gap."
Hearing this, Wu Youping felt that He Rui's boldness was astounding. Encouraged, Wu Youping felt he could go all out and asked, "Money shouldn't be a problem, but who do we buy from?"
He Rui replied without hesitation, "Buy from Germany. Don't worry about France being unhappy. Besides ordering 50,000 tons from Germany, we will open a tender for another 50,000 tons from the world. Through the bidding process, we can drag out the time a bit. We can also suppress the price."
Wu Youping's excitement came quickly and left quickly. At this moment, he began to feel that spending such a large sum of money seemed to require discussion. He asked, "Chairman, can we adjust domestically?"
"I don't think so. Because many regions are using synthetic ammonia fertilizer for the first time, and many of them are adopting double-cropping for the first time. Soil fertility declines quickly, so don't hallucinate about solving the problem by relying on the performance of millions of novices. Moreover, based on data from previous years, what is the ratio of grain growth to the increase in industrial demand?"
Listening to He Rui's calm analysis, Wu Youping hurriedly searched for the data in his memory and quickly answered, "For every 1% increase in grain production, industrial demand grows by 0.25%."
"Is the world's confidence in the Chinese economy worth the money for 50,000 tons of synthetic ammonia? And the money for buying synthetic ammonia isn't being thrown away; it is truly being used for production increase. What is the foreign synthetic ammonia capacity? What is China's capacity?"
Wu Youping was filled with confidence again and answered decisively, "Foreign capacity is 750,000 tons; we might reach 3 million tons next year."
"Our capacity is four times the global total. In the next few years, we will likely export over ten thousand tons of synthetic ammonia annually. As long as the world has confidence in China, the money for these 50,000 tons is nothing. If you really feel heartache over this money, I'll give you an idea. The German Mark is currently falling. Tell the Germans we will borrow money from Germany..."
"Can we earn it back?" Wu Youping felt He Rui probably wouldn't do something so fierce.
"Don't think about swindling others. Just find a German bank and tell them. The German Mark is falling, and we want to borrow a sum of Marks from a German bank. As long as the goods are shipped, if the German Mark has fallen by then, we will pay Germany in Renminbi at the current exchange rate... But the German bank has to give us a discount of 3-5 points. If the German Mark rises by then, we will pay the German bank in German Marks. Hehe, according to the European saying, whichever German bank takes this business, their manager will crawl over to kiss your boots at that time. Because you saved that bank."
Hearing He Rui speak like this, even Wu Youping wanted to give it a try. But after a brief internal struggle, Wu Youping replied, "I will still propose to Germany to pay in Renminbi."
"Hmm. Go ahead." He Rui finished speaking and hung up the phone.
Wu Youping immediately ordered the Ministry of Commerce to execute this. Two days later, the Minister of Commerce brought news, "Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank, and Bayerische Bank are all willing to provide comprehensive services for this business to China. Premier, they have only one request, which is for us to transfer Renminbi directly to their accounts. It seems the crisis in the German banking industry is expanding."
Wu Youping hesitated instead, "Will there be problems with those enterprises producing synthetic ammonia?"
Li Chenggang answered with considerable confidence, "Commerzbank and Bayerische Bank have both stated they are willing to provide guarantee services for this business. From the news coming from Germany, these two banks will find enterprises with whom they have sufficient business dealings to undertake this batch of synthetic ammonia contracts. Germany does not lack industrial capacity; they lack orders. German banks lack cash. Moreover, the German banks were initially somewhat surprised this time, but after learning about our domestic demand and use for synthetic ammonia, they immediately expressed great enthusiasm. It seems they are being forced into a corner."
"Then let's do it," Wu Youping replied.
"By the way, Commerzbank and Bayerische Bank both stated that they are willing to contact German enterprises in this field and are willing to ship the German inventory they can bring out to China."
Wu Youping was stunned, "Hey! Although it's only February now, doesn't Germany know that in another two months, they will also have spring plowing?"
Li Chenggang looked somewhat sympathetic, "Premier, if those German enterprises sell synthetic ammonia to us now, they won't go bankrupt. As long as they can continue to operate and are sure to receive payment immediately, those German enterprises can survive these two months. At that time, they can produce immediately. Even if there is no surplus synthetic ammonia to sell to German users, those enterprises can still consider surviving until next year. If there isn't this order, many German synthetic ammonia enterprises, as well as enterprises on the industrial chain serving these enterprises, will have to go bankrupt. Of two evils, choose the lesser; this is the same for both China and Germany."
"...Good. Let's do it." Wu Youping made up his mind. When Li Chenggang left, Wu Youping couldn't help but sigh in his heart. The Renminbi has now decoupled from the gold and silver standard; the Renminbi is just a pure fiat currency. Given China's current economic strength, the Renminbi is not a currency that circulates freely in the world. However, in the agreement He Rui signed with France, France supports the exchange of Renminbi for Francs. Due to the current strong position of the Franc, what Germany accepts is Renminbi that can be exchanged for Francs, not pure Renminbi. France is not providing financial services for China, but providing financial services for the vitality of France's economy.
Thinking of this, Wu Youping felt suddenly enlightened. Initially, he felt that China purchasing over ten thousand tons of synthetic ammonia from the global market would let the world see the insufficiency of China's industrial strength. But from the perspective of various countries in the world, China's rapid economic development has triggered China's own capacity insufficiency. At a time when annual production is over 2 million tons of synthetic ammonia, it still has to import over ten thousand tons from the world. This proves that China's economic potential is huge and its stamina is full. Most importantly, China is releasing consumption power to the world. In order to sustain China's consumption power, countries that need Chinese orders are willing to provide financial support.
Facing such a favorable situation, Wu Youping felt that the Chinese government seemed to have no other choice but to work desperately and hurry up.
With the rapid progress of the import of 150,000 tons of synthetic ammonia, by April 1931, over 40,000 tons had already been transported to the needed regions. The world did not give bad reviews to China; industries that wanted to earn a bit more from this business naturally complained. But the general evaluation was that 150,000 tons of synthetic ammonia distributed to 500 million Chinese people meant only 0.3 kilograms, 300 grams, or a large bowl of water per person. For China, it was nothing.
Only the Chinese government knew that for the 400 million Chinese people who had not yet escaped poverty, 300 grams was worth 5 cents. It was the price of a popsicle in the city, yet even so, ordinary families would not easily buy a popsicle for their children. If it weren't synthetic ammonia, a chemical fertilizer used to increase agricultural output, but those foreign light industrial goods, the Chinese people would indeed feel the pressure. For the Chinese government, this was content that must be paid attention to.
There was simply too much content to pay attention to; Premier Wu only took on the work of a national leader. For example, in March 1931, Wu Youping discussed the construction of the Outer Mongolia railway. From a population perspective, the Lanxin Line (Lanzhou-Xinjiang) was very important. But the Lanxin Line faced the problem of strong winds, which was almost unsolvable. Although on a flat map, there was a long distance from the Northeast to the northern part of Xiyu Province (Xinjiang). If looked at on a globe, the straight-line distance from Harbin to Urumqi was only 3,000 kilometers, although this railway crossed many uninhabited areas in Outer Mongolia. As for these uninhabited areas, there would be great changes after the railway arrived. Moreover, the Lanxin Line also had to pass through hundreds of kilometers of Gobi, where there were no special population settlements either.
In May, the plan was finally passed. Although this railway had many problems at the current stage, it connected China's northern border and ensured the stability of the Xiyu region. Especially since He Rui stated, "Xiyu Province (Xinjiang) also has its own advantages, for example, it is suitable for cotton planting. The railway extending to the northern part of Xiyu Province passes through Mongolia's mining areas. These are very valuable to us."
Wu Youping felt He Rui's expression was a bit strange at the time, as if there were some things he hadn't said clearly. However, what He Rui said was enough: national security + minerals + economic crops. Every item in this was enough to allow this railway of less than 4,000 kilometers to be constructed.
In July, the Huang-Huai Plain just completed the summer planting and harvest. Schistosomiasis, which had been suppressed for a time, resurged in parts of Jiangnan. To completely solve schistosomiasis, the state allocated a large amount of resources for governance. The British media launched a round of media offensives internationally.
However, the British media was ultimately disappointed. At this time, the British economy was terrible, with unemployment as high as 3 million. The British homeland only had over 40 million people; with nearly 30% of adult men unemployed, who would care about schistosomiasis appearing in distant China?
In September, heavy rain fell across the Yellow River basin. To ensure food security, local governments spent a great deal of energy defending the dikes to the death. After half a month of hard fighting, no large-scale floods or waterlogging occurred, and the autumn harvest was basically stable.
These were all major events. Regarding industrial construction, as well as the cultivation and construction of the domestic market, there were all kinds of things to worry about every day. A year passed quickly. On December 15, 1931, the Chinese government also had to release the economic data for the previous month, that is, the economic figures for November.
Moreover, the fiscal year was coming to an end, and economic departments had to start preparing to close accounts and take inventory. When the economic data for the last month was compiled, the accounts for the whole year had to be reconciled and audited. By January 1932, all aggregated data would have to be brought out as the content of the government work report.
On December 16, Premier Wu Youping opened the work record book. He saw an entry on it, "New Year's Holiday."
New Year's refers to January 1st of the Western calendar. The holiday refers to the 3-day New Year's break. For a moment, Wu Youping remembered that he had to console the comrades sticking to their posts during this holiday and also hold holiday celebration activities. However, relevant departments were responsible for these activities, so Wu Youping definitely didn't need to manage these matters.
So, it took half a minute for Wu Youping to remember that he could actually rest a bit during the 3 days of New Year's. He was stunned for a moment... so he also had holidays.
Then what to do during these 3 days? Wu Youping thought about it and found that he really wanted to hear He Rui's judgment on the future. So Wu Youping called his secretary, "Contact the Chairman; I want to hold a tea party with him and the comrades from the State Council."
For the central leaders, the biggest difference between a tea party and a work meeting was that there would be no scolding at the meeting. Even less would they be forced to come up with policies to solve problems, or forced to analyze and make promises regarding KPIs.
On the second day of the New Year, January 2, 1932, the tea party was held at No. 7 Renmin Road, the official residence of the Chairman of the Republic of China. Many comrades had some not-so-pleasant memories here, but the comrades who could survive these were now continuing to work as leading cadres of the State Council; those considered incapable by He Rui had already gone to other posts.
Now, this group of comrades had all put down their heavy pressure, at least prepared to enjoy a rare relaxation in the moment. Especially with the global economic downturn now, the comrades naturally developed a bit of a mindset of watching the excitement of other countries.
As high-level leaders, they could all see the latest reports. The agricultural output value in December was not much, and the difficulty of statistical industrial output value was relatively small. Based on the data from the first 11 months, plus the forecast for December, China's GDP in 1931 increased by about 20 billion Chinese Yuan. In 1929, China's GDP was 80 billion Chinese Yuan; in 1930, China's GDP was 100 billion Chinese Yuan. Increasing by 20 billion Chinese Yuan for two consecutive years was indeed huge progress.
He Rui also chatted with everyone about the latest progress, "Currently, the Pound, Franc, and Chinese Yuan are all fiat currencies decoupled from the gold standard, directly leading to a 35% depreciation of the Pound. And since the Franc's strength is hitching a ride with the Chinese Yuan, 1 Pound now exchanges for 60 Chinese Yuan. 120 billion Chinese Yuan is equivalent to 20 billion Pounds in terms of exchange rate. In 1931, Britain's total industrial and agricultural output value was 4.4 billion Pounds.
"Since China uses GDP calculation, and Britain adopts the statistical method of total national industrial and agricultural value, the actual ratio should not be 5 times, estimated at about 2.5 times."
There was no lack of Ph.D.s and Masters among the comrades present; this figure made everyone very happy, yet also gave birth to some inexplicable helplessness. China's population was 12 times that of the British homeland; as long as China looked slightly presentable, it should be stronger than Britain. Now being only 2.5 times Britain's total industrial and agricultural output value proved that Britain was indeed much stronger than China.
Minister of Water Resources Lu Daoming sighed, "I wonder when our per capita industrial and agricultural total value can reach two-thirds of Britain's."
Wu Youping was slightly stunned, then smiled. It wasn't just Wu Youping who laughed aloud; most ministers laughed. This was a very simple arithmetic problem. China's population is 12 times that of Britain; if per capita industrial and agricultural output value were two-thirds of Britain's, China's strength would be 8 times that of Britain. Crushing Britain would be a matter of minutes.
He Rui, however, did not smile. He replied, "The important thing is that if China's per capita consumption power can reach two-thirds of Britain's per capita consumption power, our industrial and agricultural output value can easily rise. Who would refuse to earn money?"
This sentence was the honest truth, but it also poured cold water; the smiles of the comrades quickly dissipated. Everyone knew how poor China was. And with the economy developing so rapidly in the past 3 years, many people had become rich. In places like Shanghai, rich people drove luxury cars past ordinary citizens dressed in rags; this contrast was particularly unacceptable. Many short-tempered comrades flew into a rage seeing this. So among the middle-level cadres, many views about 'whether we should equalize the rich and poor' emerged.
Although the proportion of these comrades was not too large, their attitude was very fierce. The Central Committee could not pretend not to see this.
He Rui mentioned this sharp topic but did not go deep; instead, he recounted the decisive events of 1931.
Britain accomplished three major things: the decoupling of the Pound from the gold standard, the Sterling Bloc, and the Imperial Preference System. By establishing an economic barrier between an internal market of over 500 million people and world trade, and pulling a group of countries relying on the British market into the Sterling circle, passing through the access system, they pulled up an economic alliance.
France and China, through economic cooperation, and China forming an economic cooperation system of East Asia + Soviet Union, settled a dual-system economic alliance. This made the French Franc a strong currency again. On the surface, France became a world power capable of confronting Britain.
After the United States established tariff barriers, trade with countries around the world suffered a heavy blow. Because the market the United States could control was completely incomparable to the other two economic groups, both exceeding 500 million people, the United States suffered the greatest impact.
According to the current ratio, 1 Pound exchanges for about 4 US Dollars. In 1929, the US total industrial and agricultural production value was 103.2 billion US Dollars; in 1931, only about 76.5 billion US Dollars remained.
He Rui finally said, "Although China's GDP is about 80 billion US Dollars, GDP cannot be directly compared with total industrial and agricultural production value. So the US total industrial and agricultural output value is about twice ours. Even in the depths of an economic crisis, the strength of the United States remains very powerful."
After finishing, He Rui scanned the circle of comrades. Seeing everyone's expressions were either somewhat pitiful and celebrating, especially those ministers who studied in the United States, or somewhat gloating. He Rui felt that the comrades might not have truly understood where the problem lay, so he continued to speak of his own view, "Comrades, the United States is indeed miserable at this stage. But at this stage, the United States has not stopped developing. You can think of the vitality of the US economy like magma under a volcano, boiling and flowing. Once there is a breakthrough point, it will erupt with amazing power! This Great Depression is actually a stage of eliminating backward production capacity. The United States is now in a debt crisis that has caused the people to lose confidence in finance and banks. But the US domestic market is still there. In such a tragic environment, enterprises with high technology, high management levels, and high quality can survive through various means. Just like a phoenix, when it is reborn from nirvana, it will possess terrifying power!"
The cadres of the Central Committee were the most elite group in China. Even though China's lack of experience in large-scale industrialization did limit their horizons and imagination, these basic concepts were not difficult for them. So Minister of Commerce Li Chenggang asked, "Chairman, can the United States make comprehensive adjustments from the system?"
As soon as this was said, the expressions of many ministers became serious.
He Rui retorted readily, "Why not?"
At this, a low sigh sounded within the venue.