Chapter 579 The Public Opinion Battlefield (9)
Volume 6: Great Depression Era · Chapter 19
British Foreign Secretary Arthur Henderson read the latest news from the BBC and was momentarily at a loss on how to evaluate the visit of the Chairman of the Republic of China to Japan in mid-June. After the Japanese Revolution, the British Foreign Office believed that the situation in East Asia had already settled. As an important force in East Asia, Japan was unlikely to cooperate with extra-regional forces in the short term. As the dominant force in East Asia, China had redefined the East Asian order. To express goodwill to its junior partner Japan, visiting Japan was only a matter of time.
However, the British Foreign Office initially thought He Rui would visit Japan last year. They hadn't expected He Rui to be so patient, only announcing his visit to Japan now.
The BBC was a public medium, a bit later than Foreign Secretary Arthur, but the news of He Rui's visit to Japan soon spread among these bigwigs. The reaction of the bigwigs was not intense; they merely expressed appreciation for He Rui's precise judgment of timing.
In the next two days, the governments of major European powers received reports. The foreign ministries of major European powers all believed that He Rui's visit to Japan, in the external environment where the economic crisis in Europe and America led to a decline in their imports, greatly increased the importance of the Chinese market to Japan. Especially since the US was expected to announce a new tariff law before He Rui's visit, which would have a greater impact on Japanese exports.
The report submitted by the British Foreign Office concluded: "...Renmin Road (the location of the Central Government of the Republic of China, already used to refer to the Chinese government) decided to visit Japan when Japan needs the Chinese market most. This trip will definitely bring generous political gifts, and Japan will also express its attitude to China. The Chinese government claims that China will be the world economic growth point in the next ten years, and Japan is willing to let the entire East Asia also become a growth point. The cooperation between the two sides will be elevated to a whole new level."
This was not only the view of the British Foreign Office but also the view of major European powers. The US Secretary of State's view given to President Hoover was exactly the same. President Hoover didn't say anything immediately after reading the report. Seven months had passed since November 1929. In early April of this year, the US upper echelon felt the economic crisis was probably about to pass. Unexpectedly, starting from the end of April, the US stock market took another dive. A large number of companies went bankrupt, banks collapsed, and agricultural product prices also plummeted.
Everyone in the Republican government understood that increasing tariffs would directly trigger a world trade war, but without increasing taxes, there was no way to make American voters understand that the US government had the determination to protect the interests of US nationals at all costs. President Hoover had actually made up his mind; taxes must be increased.
Different from what President Hoover thought, the Secretary of State didn't consider changing the President's view at all. In the US political structure, the President seemed to have immense power, but the US was a federal country, and state rights were very strong. The fields where the President could truly make decisions were concentrated in military and diplomacy. The military and diplomacy of the US federal government served American voters. If any US President told voters that to maintain good relations between the federal government and foreign countries, the interests of American voters had to be sacrificed, this President wouldn't need to serve anymore.
Therefore, the *Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act* must be implemented, especially now that the US government had received 34 diplomatic protests. Although the Chinese government didn't make a diplomatic protest, the Chinese Ambassador to the US formally raised serious concerns with the US government. Besides diplomatic protests, governments of various countries stated one after another that if the US raised tariffs on a large scale, they would implement reciprocal retaliation against the US.
With things evolving to this stage, the US, styling itself as a world power, actually couldn't change the decision. If President Hoover dared to adopt moderate measures, he would be seen by the American public as a leader incapable of protecting the US. This meant President Hoover's political life was essentially over. The view of the American people was simple: since the US was suffering, there was no reason to let other countries enjoy happiness based on US suffering.
The Secretary of State only said, "Mr. President, should we still invite Mr. Rockefeller to the White House?"
Hoover hesitated for a moment. Inviting Rockefeller to the White House was to ask this guy for advice on Sino-US trade. The Rockefeller consortium, known for acting boldly and arrogantly, had been signing agreements with China to establish oil joint ventures in the past month. Moreover, the Rockefeller consortium also announced extensively, "The Rockefeller Company has signed a $500,000 single-well drilling agreement with China. The depth of this exploration well will reach a record-breaking 1,300 to 1,400 meters. In the world, only the Rockefeller Company has the strength to construct a well of such depth."
Now the entire US, and even the world, was paying close attention to this matter. An oil field is a large area containing abundant oil beneath it. But whether a well capable of stable oil production can be drilled depends on luck with current technology.
The single-well agreement signed between China and the Rockefeller Company stipulated that China would provide the drilling location and the Rockefeller Company would be responsible for construction. The general conservative view was that both the Chinese government and Rockefeller were crazy. But speculators eager for high profit returns through high-risk investments had a different view. If this oil well really drilled to the astonishing depth of 1,300 meters and produced oil smoothly, it meant the Land and Resources Bureau of the Chinese government possessed world-class geologists. Cooperation between these brilliant geologists and the crazy engineers of the Rockefeller Company would lead world oil exploration into a brand-new field. Areas previously thought not to produce oil might become oil-producing areas, greatly increasing oil production.
Now that a world trade war was about to unfold, inviting Rockefeller at this time might release a misunderstood signal. President Hoover replied to the Secretary of State, "Let's wait until the matter is over."
Having received the answer and with nothing else, the Secretary of State got up and left. Only after the Secretary of State left did the White House Chief of Staff say, "Mr. President, Mr. Henry Ford and Mr. Thomas W. Lamont, CEO of J.P. Morgan, have both requested a full meeting with you."
Two days later, on June 7, several cars stopped in front of the J.P. Morgan headquarters. Reporters who got the news stepped forward one after another, but bodyguards immediately blocked them outside. The reporters shouted to the few people getting out of the cars, "Mr. Lamont, there are rumors that the President accepted your suggestion?"
The people getting out didn't look back, walking straight into the J.P. Morgan headquarters with grave expressions. Before long, the closed elevator doors dinged and slowly opened. Thomas W. Lamont, who had finished meeting with President Hoover, walked out with several economists accompanying him. Morgan's secretary immediately pushed open the door of the conference room not far from the elevator, and the group of bigwigs waiting inside looked out.
The result of the meeting had already reached New York first, but the US consortium bigwigs still waited for Thomas W. Lamont to tell them personally what happened.
Soon, Thomas W. Lamont, CEO of J.P. Morgan, recounted everything that happened in the conference room. Lamont hated Hoover's stubbornness so much that he described the process when the talks reached a deadlock almost in tears. "Gentlemen, I said to President Herbert Hoover personally at that time, 'Mr. President, if it could make you refuse to sign the stupid *Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act*, I am willing to kneel to you right now. If you want me to kiss your feet after kneeling, I will do it immediately.' But President Hoover stated that this is the will of the American voters, and he cannot refuse."
The US consortium tycoons were silent. Everyone could understand how Lamont pleaded at that time. And not only Lamont, but major US consortiums all tried every means to persuade Hoover. Auto giant Henry Ford spent a whole night at the White House trying to make Hoover understand that the *Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act* was a stupid policy that could never achieve its goal. But the answers received were all the same; Hoover rejected the tycoons' requests on the grounds of the 'voters' will.
Not only Hoover, but the members of the Senate and House of Representatives were the same. For their votes, the congressmen didn't care about the consortiums' views at all.
When the depressing atmosphere almost reached its peak, someone suddenly laughed out loud. Many tycoons were furious in their hearts, 'Fxxk' blurring out involuntarily, while looking at the person laughing. Seeing it was Rockefeller who laughed, the tycoons fell silent. If Rockefeller's investment in China succeeded, he would become the American tycoon closest to the Chinese government, possessing certain influence on the Chinese government. At least, Rockefeller had the opportunity to meet with Chairman He Rui of the Republic of China and could often communicate face-to-face with Premier Wu Youping of the Republic of China. Even if they wanted to scold Rockefeller, they had to wait for Rockefeller to finish his view first.
Sure enough, Rockefeller spoke. "Gentlemen, I'd rather the newspapers' descriptions of us were true now. In their descriptions, we possess the strength to control the US government."
Many tycoons laughed. Either bitter smiles or laughed out of anger at Rockefeller's words. Newspapers always described American tycoons as the behind-the-scenes bosses of the US government and Congress. In newspaper stories, as long as tycoons bribed judges, they could also dominate US court verdicts.
This couldn't be said to be entirely false. Tycoons had money; even if they killed someone, they could escape legal judgment. However, the fact that tycoons had to find ways to escape legal judgment meant they couldn't confront the law, the government, or public opinion. If tycoons really had the strength described by newspapers, why would they need to pay money to settle things? A slight hint from a subordinate would achieve the goal.
But Rockefeller's arrogant attitude still triggered dissatisfaction from some people. Someone immediately mocked unhappily, "Then what suggestion does Mr. Rockefeller have? Want us to join the Communist Party?"
This remark triggered explosive laughter from the tycoons. In American newspaper propaganda, the Soviet Union was such a lawless political system where government officials controlling enterprise management could imprison or even shoot people at will.
Rockefeller calmly watched the group of tycoons finish laughing and take out handkerchiefs to wipe away tears of laughter before saying, "Gentlemen, US foreign trade will fall into a trough for a long time. We don't have many choices left, and the most effective one is foreign investment. Personally, I will invest in China and Germany. Investing in China is because China will be the growth point of world economic development in the future. Investing in Germany is because the German economy is about to collapse, and as a powerful industrial country, Germany has assets in quite a few fields available for investment and acquisition. As for the US government, it no longer has the ability to solve the current problems."
Hearing that Rockefeller didn't mean to mock but seriously pointed out the future direction, the tycoons calmed down quickly. People who could sit in this conference room had all experienced various losses and failures. Just like J.P. Morgan and many capitalists present, a few months ago, to save the market, they threw 1 billion dollars into the New York stock market. It didn't even make a splash before being completely swallowed by the plummeting stock market.
For others, suffering losses of hundreds of millions, even if not bankrupt, would at least be devastated. But for the people in this conference room, although such losses made them ache, the lessons brought by the losses also allowed them to make judgments on the future economic situation. As long as there was a clear investment direction, these people in the conference room could be sure they could still earn substantial benefits. The previous losses might not count for much compared to future gains.
Thomas W. Lamont, CEO of J.P. Morgan, had also sorted out his mood at this time and asked seriously, "I heard that Chinese Chairman Mr. He Rui is a very outstanding economist."
Rockefeller shook his head. "No."
The tycoons were stunned, then heard Rockefeller continue, "Mr. He Rui is the best economist I have ever seen."
Lamont was stunned for a moment, then asked, "Then facing the best economist controlling millions of troops, we have no means to ensure safety in front of him."
"Why do you think an economist would want to kill us? Because he believes in Communism?" Rockefeller asked somewhat mockingly.
Lamont also felt his description of worry was unreasonable, so he tried to continue with a calm emotion. "Mr. Rockefeller, you provide key technology and equipment that China needs; an excellent politician will never damage your interests. But I think our ordinary investment interests cannot be guaranteed."
Rockefeller lifted his chin somewhat disgustedly at his secretary. The secretary was stunned, then quickly took out a book from his briefcase and handed it to Rockefeller. Rockefeller pressed this hardcover book and pushed it on the table. The smooth book cover slid far on the smooth black walnut long table and stopped in front of Lamont.
Lamont, CEO of J.P. Morgan, picked up the book in confusion and saw the title written in English on the cover: *Guideposts in the Economic Maze*. Rockefeller didn't wait for Lamont to open the book and continued, "If you read the chapter in this book on how the state manages investment, you can understand China's policy decision-making method. China's policy formulation principle for ordinary investment management is very reasonable: by limiting the total amount of investment, ensuring economic development does not trigger severe inflation. That is to say, the reason many investments do not pass review at this stage is not directed at the investors' views, nor is it a restriction on investment content. Rather, the total investment amount is too large relative to the capacity of the Chinese economy, so to ensure China's domestic economic security, accepting investment is suspended. Once China's total economic volume rises, the total amount of allowed investment will increase."
Lamont was stunned. In the US, wanting to invest also required smoothing relationships first. Without the protection of local powerbrokers in various states and localities, foreign investment would be eaten clean. Even if American companies wanted to invest, they had to smooth relationships first. But the restriction and management of Chinese investment mentioned by Rockefeller seemed to completely disregard these, only considering economic security from the national level. Such reality seemed like a fairy tale.
Rockefeller ignored others' views and said to himself, "Gentlemen, out of friendship for you all, I recommend you read this book. As for what conclusions you draw after reading, that is your freedom."
Hearing such arrogant speech, many tycoons wanted to snort in contempt. But He Rui's prestige made American tycoons subconsciously feel it was better to be cautious.