Chapter 575 The Public Opinion Battlefield (5)
Volume 6: Great Depression Era · Chapter 15
"...Beginning in 1894, the disastrous military defeats faced by China's Qing government and the Beiyang Yuan Shikai government stimulated unprecedented nationalist sentiment within China. The unexpected military actions taken by the He Rui government in its early days were precisely to respond to this intense Chinese nationalist sentiment.
"After He Rui defeated Japan in 1923, analyzing from his speeches, He Rui was very clear that after defeating Japan, the Chinese Northeast Army obtained a strategic window of freedom of action during the Chinese Unification War. But for the ordinary Chinese people, their strong nationalist sentiment finally found an object to pin their hopes on. A Chinese leader who defeated China's most direct enemy unified China, logically gaining the legitimacy to rule.
"From the previous Conservative Baldwin government to the current ruling Labour MacDonald government, two British governments, for unknown reasons, have not explicitly considered how to repair the hostility of the Chinese populace towards Britain caused by various tragic events between China and Britain over the past century. Ignoring the relationship between the people of China and Britain is incomprehensible obtuseness and irresponsibility for politicians.
"If we cannot repair the hostility between the people of the two countries as soon as possible, what we see now is Sino-French cooperation; will we later have to watch helplessly as Sino-US cooperation unfolds? Sino-Soviet cooperation?"
Other British newspapers also ran special features on the economy at this time. The day after *The Times* editorial was published, *The Guardian* analyzed the current economic situations of Britain and France.
"...In 1929, Britain's Gross National Product was 4.7 billion pounds. Judging from the data released by France and the exchange rate changes between the pound and the franc, France's Gross National Product was around 4.3 billion pounds. In 1927, France's Gross National Product was around 3.2 billion pounds.
"According to the latest employment data released by the French government, due to the passage of the proposal to strengthen French education jointly proposed by French left-wing parties, France cracked down on child labor and established a police department specifically to catch truant schoolchildren. Therefore, the French unemployment rate has dropped to around 1.5%. This means the French economy is active, and the demand for labor has increased significantly, so much so that even disabled people have to be employed.
"Meanwhile, Britain's unemployment rate has gone from over 10% in early 1930 to nearly 15% now. The economic crisis triggered by the US financial crisis shows no signs of being resolved, which means the British economy cannot improve in the short term. If such a situation continues for three years, with the exchange rate changes between the pound and the franc, the French economy could possibly become 150%, or even 200%, of Britain's in the next few years. The situation on the European continent will be completely changed.
"The change in the French economy does not come from France's own strength but is based on the confidence brought to the French economy by Sino-French economic cooperation. The direction of how to deal with the current situation is self-evident; do the gentlemen in Downing Street lack the ability to recognize the current direction of British policy?"
The British newspaper industry was concentrated in Fleet Street. When the British Labour Cabinet suffered fierce criticism from Fleet Street, Prime Minister MacDonald even felt a bit aggrieved. What newspapers could see clearly, the British government was naturally very clear about. But newspapers also knew that non-governmental relations between China and Britain could not be easily improved. The British government naturally knew very well that if the non-governmental relationship between China and Britain were excellent, it could also promote Sino-British cooperation, so the British government was completely unoptimistic about building good non-governmental relations between China and Britain in the short term.
Over the past century, regarding the major things Britain had done to China, if China had done them to Britain once, the British public would hate China for at least 200 years. Most importantly, the previous two British governments did not clearly support China's unification during the Chinese Unification War, nor did Britain seek reconciliation between the Chinese and British people during the subsequent Sino-British War.
The car of British economist Keynes stopped in front of the British Prime Minister's country estate. It was a bit hotter than usual at the end of May 1930. Guided by the Prime Minister's secretary, Keynes walked into the estate and immediately saw Prime Minister MacDonald in the front hall.
Prime Minister MacDonald had curly brown hair, a thick mustache on his upper lip, and angular facial features, looking distinctly Scottish. Keynes stepped forward, and Prime Minister MacDonald took the initiative to shake hands with him. The Prime Minister also observed the famous economist Keynes. Keynes had a broad forehead, a high nose bridge, and wide, thick lips. Such deep facial contours gave a Viking feel and also had a Nordic coldness. Judging by appearance alone, it was difficult to associate this naturally cold appearance with the fierce scholar who had shouted in the newspapers a few years ago that "the disgusting government-led economic model will inevitably lead the British economy into the abyss."
"Mr. Keynes, I noticed your suggestion. But this suggestion seems to differ greatly from your previous economic views," MacDonald said while pointing to the sofa.
Keynes, a Fellow of the Royal Society, was not polite. The second he sat on the sofa, he said, "Your Excellency Prime Minister, I suggest immediately devaluing the pound by another 25% based on the current exchange rate to maintain exports and reduce unemployment. The way to save the British economy now is not trade freedom or fiscal balance, but to preserve Britain's employment rate. As long as British workers have jobs, the British economy can be saved."
Free trade and fiscal balance had always been the tradition of the Victorian era in Britain. The era ignoring this tradition was the Younger Pitt cabinet during the Napoleonic Wars. To win the war, Britain even taxed British families based on the number of windows. The evaluation of Prime Minister Younger Pitt by ordinary British people wasn't high.
Although MacDonald was Labour and willing to preserve employment, if the means to preserve employment was to break the traditional means of the British economy, MacDonald felt full of resistance inside. But Keynes was Britain's most famous economist, so MacDonald asked politely, "Mr. Keynes, the government's means of stimulating the economy cannot be sustained. I admire your knowledge and courage, so can you tell me, if the government executes your suggestion, how long can the finances last?"
Keynes felt for a moment he might have come to the wrong place, but the situation before him allowed no hesitation. He simply raised a question, "Mr. Prime Minister, do you know what China's unemployment rate is? And how many junior high school students graduated in China in 1929?"
MacDonald felt a burst of displeasure. He instinctively loathed China, yet in the past two years, China had truly become an important country in the world. Especially this year, it seemed that when mentioning international issues and the world economy, one couldn't discuss these major world events without mentioning China.
Suppressing the displeasure in his heart, Prime Minister MacDonald asked, "Can Mr. Keynes tell me these figures?"
"Because China adopted land reform, its true unemployment rate will never exceed 3%. The number of junior high school graduates in China in 1929 exceeded 2 million. In every future year, the number of Chinese junior high school graduates will increase by more than 500,000 based on the previous year. Besides having 2 million laborers with 8 years of education every year, the Chinese government is desperately creating jobs to meet the needs of such a large employed population. As long as China's policy of preserving employment can be realized, in 6 years, China's economy will surpass Britain's. This is the result preserving employment can bring."
Prime Minister MacDonald hadn't expected Keynes, this economist, to propose such an outrageous judgment. A wave of anger involuntarily surged in his heart. If China's economy surpassed Britain's, plus France's booming economy, what kind of world hegemon would Britain still be? Better prepare for the decisive battle to maintain hegemony quickly.
Forcibly calming his emotions for a while, Prime Minister MacDonald scratched his curly brown hair before asking relatively calmly, "If Britain abandons fiscal balance, it will need to borrow debt."
"Britain has a very strong ability to raise debt, and the increase in the employment rate of British workers will make more investors willing to invest in Britain. When the economic crisis passes, a healthy British economy will develop rapidly, and the ability to repay debts will also greatly increase then. Mr. Prime Minister, Chinese leaders have a very profound understanding of the economy. China's economic development will give the Chinese government unparalleled debt repayment ability, which is also the fundamental reason why China dares to invest such great strength in industrial development. If Mr. Prime Minister wants to seize the privilege of investment and trade with China from France, you must first satisfy China's needs. If you cannot satisfy them, it is impossible to make the Chinese upper echelon change their decision."
MacDonald felt Keynes was too idealistic. The actual quasi-alliance relationship between China and France was a strategic consideration. France could swallow its pride to cooperate with China like this, but Britain could not, at least not at this stage. Because to persuade China now, Britain would have to pay a price far higher than France.
After paying such a price, the goal might not necessarily be achieved. But deciding to pay such a price meant the MacDonald government was finished. Having lost the power to govern, the MacDonald government would also have no opportunity to complete cooperation with China. This was a deadlock.