文明破晓 (English Translation)

— "This world needs a more advanced form of civilization"

Modernization 6

Volume 5: International Relations · Chapter 86

After Taira Toyomori finished reading the meeting minutes, he looked up and saw that Ishiwara had also finished reading and was narrowing his eyes in thought. Taira spoke his judgment first, "Ishiwara-kun, I believe that as long as no one deliberately instigates it, the public will not react violently to such an arrangement."

Ishiwara agreed with Taira's assessment. But as the Cabinet Prime Minister, Ishiwara had to consider specific issues—namely, how much trouble the opposition could actually stir up. Fortunately, He Rui had already given the Japanese government a way out. The Korean restorationists were making a fierce commotion in the north, and the Japanese army's suppression efforts had been repeatedly frustrated. To complete the suppression would require increasing military expenditure. The Diet would never accept a proposal for a large-scale increase in military spending.

"I agree with the President's judgment," Ishiwara stated his decision.

Taira Toyomori knew this was a step Japan had to complete, so he didn't haggle over trivial benefits. He asked, "The 2nd China-Japan Go Tournament is about to begin, isn't it?"

"Yes. The important task for the next year is to promote people-to-people exchanges between China and Japan. If He-kun can visit Japan next year, that would be the best outcome," Ishiwara replied with a smile. Since they were going to sign a treaty that would irritate Japanese public sentiment, they had to go all out to create a friendly atmosphere between China and Japan. By using the exchange of visits by heads of state to push the emotions of the two countries to a climax, they could offset Japanese nationalist sentiment.

Seeing that Ishiwara was prepared, Taira Toyomori looked down at the meeting minutes again. In the records, the Chinese side expressed four views:

1. Sovereignty over Korea belongs to the Korean people.

2. Sovereignty over Ryukyu belongs to the Ryukyu people.

3. Sovereignty over Taiwan belongs to China.

4. Japan can receive corresponding compensation when implementing the first three points.

Taira Toyomori agreed with He Rui's thinking on handling these issues, especially regarding compensation. He Rui showed the attitude expected of a mature politician; after getting what he wanted, he began to consider the interests of the other party.

Admittedly, the Japanese Ministry of Defense believed that China could achieve its goals through war. Similarly, the assessment report provided by the Ministry of Defense estimated that China would need to mobilize 2 million troops, and the cost of the war and the reconstruction of Korea and Taiwan would be between 5 and 10 billion Chinese yuan.

Japan agreed to China's request, and China would provide 200 to 500 million Chinese yuan as compensation. Taira Toyomori believed this was beneficial to both parties. The issue of the two countries' relationship continuing to develop towards peace and friendship without violent shocks also bought time for China's development. By exchanging 200 to 500 million Chinese yuan for 3 to 5 years of time, China's interests were maximized.

"Prime Minister Ishiwara, how long do you think it will take to complete the agreement negotiation?" Taira Toyomori asked.

"The initial stage is the most difficult. I think it will take at least a month."

Ishiwara's judgment was precise; the initial negotiations indeed took 38 days. On the third day of the negotiations, in northern Korea, the Korean restorationists held a meeting.

Kim Gu, the Premier of the Provisional Government of the Republic of Korea, appeared in a small mountain village. The Korean Revolutionary Army was standing guard at the village entrance. This made Kim Gu sigh at the influence brought about by the huge changes in China over the past two years. Previously, Korean restorationists could only gather in China, and they were in a dispersed state in Korea. Although the current Korean uprising had been suppressed, the Korean restorationists were organizing armies and forming small groups in the northern mountains.

Quite a few Koreans were waiting for Kim Gu in the village. Seeing Kim Gu arrive, everyone hurriedly stepped forward to welcome him. Kim Gu shook hands with everyone one by one. Before even going inside, Kim Gu said, "Comrades, you have worked hard! I have failed in my mission and could not make the uprising a success."

Lee Bong-chang, the Finance Minister of the government-in-exile, immediately said, "It is good that Premier Kim could return safely. Moreover, although this uprising did not succeed, fighting the Japanese army for so long is enough to strengthen the morale of our Korean people."

Education Minister Yun Bong-gil, a young man just a month shy of 20, had also participated in the uprising and evacuated from Korea three months ago. Now he had returned to Korea with a dozen personnel from the Provisional Government of the Republic of Korea in Shanghai. Seeing Kim Gu blaming himself, he stepped forward and said, "Premier Kim personally led the team to cover our retreat. You have done your best."

Kim Gu knew that his ability to retreat was not because the insurgent army was good at fighting, but because China and Japan had reached some kind of agreement behind the scenes. Thinking that he was still unable to persuade the Chinese government to help restore Korea, Kim Gu was still very regretful.

After a while, with a small commotion outside, someone came in to report, "President Kim, the representatives of the Korean Communist Party have arrived."

Among the current Korean revolutionaries, most of the local young people were members of various Communist organizations. Unlike a pure restorationist like Kim Gu, the young revolutionaries not only looked forward to restoring Korea but also wanted Korea to become a socialist country like China. This made an old-school figure like Kim Gu feel very troubled.

As Kim Gu expected, after the several Korean Communist Party representatives came in, they were very enthusiastic about launching an armed struggle in Korea initially. But when it came to personnel issues, the young Korean Communist Party representatives immediately stated, "We must never trust those rich people again!"

"Mr. Kim Gu, we have already been betrayed by them once. These rich people are accomplices of the Japanese!"

Kim Gu knew that the previous March 1st Movement had caused these Korean youths to completely lose confidence in the Korean wealthy class. But he didn't expect the two sides to drift so far apart.

From March 1, 1919, to the end of April, 1,214 demonstrations and conflicts occurred in 212 of Korea's 218 prefectures and counties, with 1 million participants. By the end of May, it increased to more than 2,000 times, and the number of participants reached 2 million, accounting for 10% of the Korean population at that time. Just like that, the anti-Japanese wave triggered by the March 1st Movement swept across the entire Korean Peninsula.

This movement was initially against hunger and oppression. Later, it developed into a movement for independence and autonomy. When the struggle reached this stage, the Korean wealthy class feared that their interests would be damaged and immediately turned to support Japan. This caused a great split among the Korean revolutionaries.

It can be said that the March 1st Movement basically failed after June 1919. The reasons for its failure were multifaceted. First, the initiators of the March 1st Movement, the so-called "National Representatives" representing the interests of the bourgeois nationalist upper class, although playing an important role in organizing this movement, readily believed in the national self-determination theory of the European and American powers. They only wanted to conduct peaceful demonstrations and petitions, fearing student movements and people's revolutions. In the end, they did not play a promoting and leading role in this movement. This fully demonstrated the weakness and compromise of the Korean national bourgeoisie, which can also be seen from the fact that Choe Nam-son, who drafted the "Proclamation of Independence," later compromised and degenerated into a pro-Japanese collaborator.

Secondly, although the Korean working class stepped onto the stage of history as an independent force in this movement, it had not yet grown up, its strength was still weak, and it had not formed its own political party to lead this patriotic movement. Therefore, although the March 1st Movement was massive, due to the lack of a unified and strong leader or political party, the people's struggle was in an unorganized, dispersed, and spontaneous state from the day it broke out. This also gave the Japanese colonialists the opportunity to defeat them one by one, causing the movement not to last long.

But this divergence was precisely what Kim Gu least wanted to see. Because the land reforms carried out by China and Japan proved that only bayonets could promote land reform. The land reforms in both these countries were at the cost of the destruction of the old upper class. If Korea also engaged in land reform, the same situation would definitely appear.

In other words, now that the revolution has not yet succeeded, a comprehensive split has already occurred within the Korean revolutionary party. The moment the Korean revolution succeeds will be the signal for the start of a bloody war between these two factions.

So Kim Gu began to try his best to persuade the young Korean Communist Party members, but the progress made Kim Gu very helpless.

***

On the 28th day of the Sino-Japanese negotiations, a US special envoy arrived in Beijing, China. The special envoy, Prescott Bush, was a 33-year-old young man. At least for a US special envoy, this age was very young.

He Rui met Prescott Bush in his living room. Bush walked into the living room with a somewhat yearning mood. He Rui was 38 years old this year, already a middle-aged man. The childishness of youth was gone from him. Bush felt the power of an adult in He Rui, but without the lethargy of an old politician.

Bush's first question was, "Mr. Chairman, have you heard? European countries think you have made an immoral decision."

Hearing this, He Rui couldn't help laughing, "I wonder if the United States will regard the Soviet Union as a European country."

Prescott Bush was stunned, feeling that he was facing a powerful negotiation partner. However, Bush did not feel uneasy because of this. His main task was to express the goodwill of the US government to He Rui, not to really establish a deeper relationship with He Rui.

Without reacting to He Rui's reminder, Bush continued, "Mr. Chairman, the US government greatly appreciates your attitude towards colonies. The US Congress is considering granting independence to the Philippines."

"China welcomes such an attitude," He Rui replied. "It is necessary to distinguish between sovereignty and governance rights. The issue of how to ensure the governance of colonies that gain independence can be completed during the transfer of governance rights. But who sovereignty belongs to is the core issue. Western European countries like to confuse the public, refusing to recognize the sovereignty of those countries on the grounds that colonies cannot effectively govern themselves. This is a ridiculous deception. It is necessary to fully expose this."

Hearing that Western European countries were to be struggled against, Prescott Bush felt a strong resonance. "Mr. Chairman, the arrogance of Western European countries is indeed impressive. China's civilized and rational attitude is admirable. The President of the United States sent me here to ask Mr. Chairman if there is anything needed in the process of promoting the liberation of colonies. If the United States has the ability to satisfy it, we will try our best to satisfy it."

"Thank you, President Coolidge. I heard that Mr. Hoover has already won the Republican nomination. Just getting the nomination has made the US stock market continue to surge. I wonder if this is completely true?" He Rui pulled the topic to the US economy.

Prescott Bush was a successful businessman who made a living from this, and he had a lot of experience in this regard. When he became the leader of China in 1924, He Rui was one year younger than the current Bush. Bush cherished the opportunity to talk about economics with a figure like He Rui.

After first describing Hoover's approval rating in the United States, Bush described the surge in the US stock market triggered by Hoover's nomination by the Republican Party. Bush asked, "Since the end of 1927, there have been more and more bearish evaluations of the stock market. Before Mr. Hoover was nominated, the US stock market did indeed experience a decline. Afterwards, it skyrocketed because of the news of the nomination. In Mr. Chairman's view, will the US economy change due to a change in president?"

"The general trend of the US economy will not change due to a change in president. Mr. Bush, if the US stock market continues to surge like this, there will inevitably be a huge crash. This has nothing to do with which president is elected," He Rui made his judgment.

Prescott Bush nodded slightly. As a businessman, Bush certainly did not believe in a stock market that would never fall. The Bush family's own company issued stocks. If the stock market rose forever, the Bush family could enjoy ever-increasing wealth just by relying on the shares they held.

"When the stock market crashes, different presidents will adopt different countermeasures. This will lead to different results. If I were a US voter, I would study whether the presidential candidates' campaign platforms contain content in this regard."

"Haha, people with thoughts like yours are a tiny minority among US voters." Bush laughed, "But I very much admire your rational attitude. If Mr. Chairman were running for US President, would you propose content related to this in your campaign platform?"

"In another two years, China will hold a general election. I will definitely analyze China's future economic development."

"Given your understanding of the Chinese economy, I wonder if you could tell me what your judgment is for China in the next few years?"

"China is not yet an industrial country, so China has very large room for development. Moreover, the current government is focusing most of its efforts on economic development. At least in the next five years, the number of Chinese factories will increase several times or even a dozen times. And the labor productivity of Chinese workers is likely to increase by more than 10% annually."

"In other words, do you think the current stage is a good time to invest in China?" Prescott Bush asked what he considered the main point.

"I think that given the profitability of US capital in the US mainland at this stage, the United States may not be interested in investing in China."

Hearing He Rui's rational consideration, Prescott Bush became even more interested. There are two kinds of people who speak like this: one is very confident, and the other is retreating to advance. Bush believed He Rui was the first kind, so he asked, "If I want to invest in China, I don't know which Chinese departments I should look for. I am very interested in potential markets."

"Is Mr. Bush planning to organize a businessman group to visit China for inspection after returning home?" He Rui decided to give Prescott Bush a chance. Businessmen have always known clearly that they must have good relations with the government. On the contrary, under normal circumstances, the government would state that they have no intention of associating with businessmen.

Prescott Bush was a smart man. He knew He Rui was giving him an opportunity. American businessmen had no experience investing in China. If they could become businessmen permitted by He Rui, they could greatly reduce the cost of negotiation and investment. He immediately replied, "Mr. Chairman, even if I return to the United States, I hope to maintain contact with you."

The meeting ended in a good atmosphere. After sending Prescott Bush away, He Rui walked to the front of the world map and stood with his arms folded across his chest. Minister of Commerce Li Chenggang came in and walked to He Rui's side. Following He Rui's gaze, he saw the map of the United States shaped like a great shark. Li Chenggang asked tentatively, "Is the Chairman considering the economic crisis that will break out in the United States?"

He Rui lowered his arms, "Minister Li, how much impact do you think an economic crisis in the United States would have on China and France?"

"In the analysis results of the Ministry of Commerce, the impact on the economies of China and France is not significant. Because France does not have much investment in Germany. As soon as the United States has problems, the first to bear the brunt will be Germany, which has obtained a large number of dollars. If Germany has problems, countries that have large investments in Germany and rely heavily on German industrial products will be affected. Countries that rely on the US market will also be greatly affected, but the economic impact on the global economy will be just that."

Hearing Li Chenggang's answer, He Rui turned his head to look at Li Chenggang. Li Chenggang withstood the direct gaze of He Rui's sharp eyes, but couldn't help straightening his back.

"Is this the view of the Ministry of Commerce?" He Rui asked.

"This is the judgment made by the Ministry of Commerce based on the economic exchanges between various countries. At this stage, Sino-French cooperation can allow countries with relatively close economic relations with China and France to achieve stability under the impact of the economic crisis. The Ministry of Commerce had an intuitive view before completing the analysis, which was that the economic crisis would spread rapidly. Only after specific analysis was it determined that this transmission would mainly occur within the dollar zone. The sterling zone will also be affected, but the UK has vast colonies and can find ways to solve the problem."

Only then could He Rui determine that the Ministry of Commerce had indeed given it very serious consideration, so he asked Li Chenggang to sit down. As soon as Li Chenggang sat down, he spoke of the purpose of his visit, "Chairman, a part of the small-scale French equipment has been transported to China and assembly has been completed. Several French companies were very surprised. They believe that China has a very outstanding computing department and mentioned in conversation that they wanted to see China's computing department."

"Is it just talk?" He Rui sought a definite answer.

"It is indeed just talk," Li Chenggang replied with certainty.

He Rui certainly didn't want the French to see China's computing department, because China's computing department had already begun to use electronic tube computers capable of 50,000 operations per second on a large scale. A few years ago, after China completed the electronic tube computer, this equipment was still considered something like an expensive scientific toy.

A few years later, China's fields of statistics, science, engineering, etc., had developed a dependence on electronic tube computers. He Rui had long known that such a development would occur and was not surprised. Hearing Li Chenggang say that the French seemed interested, he smiled and said, "There is no need to pay attention to the French for now. We shouldn't mention anything. But if the French side formally proposes it, we will hold a meeting to discuss it then."