Visiting Europe 5
Volume 5: International Relations · Chapter 70
At 6 PM, darkness had already fallen over Britain. In the Prime Minister's manor, Baldwin's butler habitually glanced at the thermometer by the door; it showed about 6 degrees Celsius. The butler whispered to a servant to add wood to the living room fireplace. The wood, chopped and left for a few days, had lost much of its raw smell, and as it burned, it released a faint, pleasant scent into the air.
Baldwin asked the butler to turn off the lights and sat in a rocking chair by the fireplace. The wallpaper, printed with patterns of slender, curving branches, reflected the orange glow of the fire. Combined with the elegant, antique furniture, it created a mottled, dappled effect.
Baldwin quietly enjoyed the warmth of the fireplace, waiting for the guests who would arrive shortly. In recent years, the Prime Minister had become accustomed to days where he could be sitting at home, only for trouble to descend from the heavens. The Sino-British War was forced upon the Baldwin cabinet by the He Rui administration; China dragging Britain into suppressing the United States in the Pacific was also initiated by the He Rui administration. Now, the shock within British financial and business circles regarding the Sino-French Economic Cooperation Agreement was likewise the result of the He Rui administration acting on its own.
Regardless of what the He Rui administration did, Baldwin felt he was the victim. Thus, the Prime Minister couldn't be bothered to complain anymore and simply enjoyed this moment of tranquility.
The doorbell rang, and the butler immediately went to answer it. The sound of several footsteps approached, and Baldwin looked up to see three fairly familiar figures: the Chancellor of the Exchequer, the Governor of the Bank of England, and the Foreign Secretary.
Without turning on the lights, Baldwin invited the three to sit by the fireplace. The Governor of the Bank of England was the key figure among the three invited today. The Baldwin cabinet was no longer considering using diplomacy to stop Sino-French cooperation. Since a million British troops in India couldn't stop He Rui, a million British troops certainly couldn't stop the French government's determination to cooperate with the He Rui administration. If the army was useless, one could imagine the negligible influence of a diplomatic note.
Knowing his mission, the Governor of the Bank of England immediately recounted the Bank's analysis to the Prime Minister. Baldwin had worked in economic affairs in the previous cabinet, so the Governor wasn't worried about him not understanding. By the warm fireplace, the orange firelight cast a golden hue on the Governor's pale skin, making him look somewhat like a golden statue of the God of Wealth.
"This year, the usage rate of the Franc in international payments will increase by at least 5%. With the Franc not yet returned to the gold standard, the exchange rate between the Franc and the Pound is likely to stabilize at around 100:1..."
Baldwin, completely relaxed physically, found it easy to construct the financial situation in his mind. The lowest exchange rate between the Franc and the Pound had reached 240:1 in 1926. 100:1 meant the Franc's value had more than doubled. Moreover, Baldwin felt that 100:1 was likely just a transition. Given his sense of the He Rui administration, it was possible for the Franc-Pound rate to reach 80:1.
The Governor of the Bank of England looked somewhat worried. "...What the Bank of England is more concerned about now is that China and France have already signed a Most Favored Nation agreement. France has agreed that China can repay loans with commodities under negotiation. Based on 1927 prices for Chinese goods, the landed price of some Chinese goods at French ports is lower than that of similar British goods. Chinese workers' wages are currently only marginally lower than British workers, but Chinese labor productivity is rising rapidly."
Baldwin understood the Governor's implication; he was subtly expressing concern that British industrial products might face competition from similar Chinese products in the French market. Just then, the butler served tea. As they drank, the room fell temporarily silent.
Taking a sip of the Darjeeling black tea from the Assam region, served without milk, Baldwin suddenly remembered a report in a British newspaper a few days ago. A reporter had investigated changes in British tea drinking habits over the past year or so and found that the proportion of British people adding milk to their tea had plummeted. It had dropped from 80% to below 50%.
Regarding this data, the news article had viciously cursed the British tea profiteers of the past few hundred years. As a nation with a tea-drinking habit spanning centuries, the British were not incapable of distinguishing good tea from bad. However, previous tea trade monopolies were in the hands of maritime traders. To maximize profits, British profiteers had added quite a few 'additives' to the tea. To suppress these strange tastes, the British had adopted the method of adding milk to mask the off-flavors.
In the past year, China, in accordance with the Sino-British trade agreement, had opened direct-sale stores in the UK. The tea was not only much cheaper but was also authentic, unadulterated Chinese tea. The British people immediately abandoned the habit of adding milk.
Sipping the sweet and fragrant Darjeeling, Baldwin couldn't judge what kind of impact Chinese industrial products would have on Europe.
The Governor of the Bank of England put down his teacup and continued, "Prime Minister, judging from the recent changes in the French stock and foreign exchange markets, the Pound will face a long-term challenge from the Franc."
After listening to the Bank of England's rather worrying assessment, Baldwin looked at the Foreign Secretary. "What are the Foreign Office's emergency response plans?"
Reflected in the firelight, the Foreign Secretary's cheeks looked angular and distinct. "The Foreign Office believes that, if we disregard the consequences, the most effective plan to stop this is to dispatch the fleet to intercept goods France is shipping to China."
Baldwin had no spirit left for such things. Even hearing such a radical countermeasure, he was only slightly surprised. If Churchill, who was smoking a cigar nearby, had said this, Baldwin wouldn't have felt anything amiss. But for the usually moderate Foreign Secretary to propose such a radical view did indeed surprise Baldwin.
A moment later, Baldwin sensed something was wrong. That even the Foreign Office would propose such a suggestion was enough to prove how serious the cabinet members considered this matter to be.
The Foreign Secretary replied calmly, "Prime Minister, the cabinet is aiming for feasibility and has not prioritized other considerations. In terms of the Versailles System, war cannot break out between Britain and France. The French side might declare war on the British Empire over this."
Baldwin didn't respond to the Foreign Secretary. He looked at Churchill's obese figure in the firelight. "Mr. Churchill, what do you think?"
Churchill was filled with disdain for Prime Minister Baldwin. If it were for the interests of the British Empire, Churchill actually wouldn't mind stopping the flow of goods between China and France. Because this method was indeed very effective. Historically, there had been several financial wars between Britain and France, and Britain had won every single one.
Given the proximity between Britain and France, and their competitive positions in finance, Churchill believed Britain must accept the challenge. After a period of silence, Churchill said, "Prime Minister, do you not think this is another 'Unholy Alliance'?"
Hearing Churchill actually use this historical allusion, Baldwin was truly displeased and surprised. The Unholy Alliance referred to the Franco-Ottoman alliance (English: Franco-Ottoman alliance), established in 1536 between the Kingdom of France and the Ottoman Empire. Because this alliance was denounced at the time as an "impious alliance" or "the sacrilegious union of the Lily and the Crescent," it was also known as the "Unholy Alliance."
The Unholy Alliance was a classic case of French diplomatic autonomy. Because France wished to become the dominant power on the European continent, it chose the method of a 'flanking alliance' to strengthen France's power. The previous flank was the Ottoman Empire outside the Christian world; now, they had chosen China, which was viewed by Europe as the fringe of the world.
The Foreign Secretary supported Churchill in the field of geopolitics. He spoke up, "Prime Minister. A distinct economic alliance consisting of France, China, and the Soviet Union is now beginning to form on the World Island. Although France has also joined the blockade against the Soviet Union, France knows very well that what is given to China is equivalent to being given to the Soviet Union. France has, in reality, already betrayed its previous commitments."
Hearing this, Baldwin roughly understood the cabinet members' views. Members inclined towards the economic sector felt the pressure of a de facto Sino-French alliance on the Pound, while members inclined towards the security sector worried about the economic cooperation system being built by China, France, and the Soviet Union on the World Island.
One didn't even need to look at a map to clearly analyze the scope of this alliance. The Soviet Union possessed 22 million square kilometers of territory, China 11 million, and France's homeland plus colonies exceeded 10 million square kilometers. Together, that was over 43 million square kilometers and 700 million people. Except for North America, they possessed land all over the world, as well as a large number of good ports.
This invisible alliance possessed 6 million regular troops who could be summoned at a moment's notice, all tested by blood and fire in war. France sat at the industrial apex of this invisible alliance. Once it developed, the pressure Britain would endure was unimaginable.
Baldwin had to consider the military aspect, yet he couldn't effectively wargame the future situation. Baldwin was forced to ask, "What about other, less drastic response methods?"
The Foreign Secretary immediately replied, "Britain could replace France's role and provide China with a 200 million Pound interest-free loan. But I personally believe China would not make such a choice. Betraying a partnership so quickly would only isolate China from the world. I believe He Rui would absolutely not make such a choice. Therefore, I personally believe a more reliable method is to raise the reception standard for He Rui's visit to Britain. According to the disclosed content of the Sino-French Economic Cooperation Agreement, the first phase of cooperation is three years. We can negotiate with China during this period, and wait until three years later to prevent the automatic renewal of this agreement. And, through investment in China, achieve a status equal to that of France."
Churchill was truly dissatisfied with such a suggestion, but he had to admit it might be the best response. But such a situation made Churchill unhappy, and he said with a tone full of mockery, "If the Bank of England agreed to provide China with a 200 million US dollar interest-free loan, He Rui would probably wake up laughing from his dreams."
This judgment was correct. At this moment, the Chinese delegation had finished dinner, and He Rui was explaining his judgment of the European situation to his comrades based on today's developments. "Britain's policy of balance of power hopes that there are mutually checking forces among the various great powers. Only then can Britain utilize conflicts between great powers to manifest its own power. So when we negotiated with the United States regarding the Chinese Exclusion Act, Britain very readily accepted the role of mediator.
The peace between Britain and France is built on the fact that they have resolved their colonial contradictions, and both sides are convinced the other will not hesitate to contest their colonies. But a conflict triggered in the financial domain is another matter entirely. The most classic process of financial conflict between Britain and France was the Napoleonic Wars.
The Napoleonic Wars were divided into two phases. The first phase was Napoleon defeating the coalition of traditional surrounding powers, marrying an Austrian princess as Empress, and establishing his hegemony on the European continent. At that time, Napoleon's brother became King of Spain, and Napoleon titled the son born to him and the Austrian princess the King of Rome, preparing to let his son rule Italy. And Britain's reaction was to become the core nation of the anti-French coalitions in the second phase.
To win the Napoleonic Wars, Britain taxed even windows. If Britain had been defeated in the anti-French coalition, what kind of country would Britain have become? Just look at Japan. Why did Britain go all out to win the war? It wasn't because the British love fighting, nor was it for honor or anything else. By winning the anti-French war, Britain paved the way for world hegemony. Compared to the benefits brought by the status of world hegemon, the price Britain paid in the anti-French war was completely acceptable."
The ministers were very convinced by He Rui's geopolitical strategic judgment. Having heard He Rui recount the challenges facing this Sino-French cooperation, Foreign Minister Yan Huiqing asked, "Will Britain go to war this time?"
He Rui immediately answered, "I believe Britain will consider it very seriously, and France will also consider this possibility very seriously. In the end, Britain will still avoid war. Because the French side will convey a message to Britain through various channels: for the sake of France's national destiny, the French government will not hesitate to fight."