Visiting Europe (4)
Volume 5: International Relations · Chapter 69
By January 25, 1928, French newspapers were already referring to the Sino-French Economic Cooperation Agreement as the "Doumergue Agreement." He Rui went back to sleep for a bit and felt his physical and mental energy recover quite well. Looking at the ceiling of the magnificent hotel room, He Rui tried to recall exactly how long it had been since he first formulated this plan.
Thinking it over, he still couldn't come up with a precise answer. After all, he was just a teenager back then. And He Rui was also unfamiliar with this era. To understand the characteristics of this era, He Rui had spent a year or two. Even during the process of formulating the plan, the plan would change with the addition of new insights.
The only clear status quo was that China had obtained geopolitical security on the northern border through the European War and the Russian Civil War, and overall geopolitical security through the Sino-Japanese War. Through the Sino-British War, it had achieved a return to the international community. Sino-French cooperation was the means to advance China's industrialization at the current stage.
Thinking of this, He Rui rolled out of bed, tidied up a bit, and went straight to the conference room. In the conference room, the ministers had not left, they just looked a bit more relaxed than in the morning. When He Rui came in, Commerce Minister Li Chenggang handed the latest newspaper to He Rui, "Chairman, it seems there is movement from the British side."
He Rui took it and looked. The latest article in the British *The Times* accused the British government, "...Did no economist in the Baldwin government notice that China has borrowing needs? Is the British Empire already so poor that it cannot take out a 200 million pound interest-free loan? The financial turmoil triggered by the economic cooperation between China and France is forming a wave threatening world financial stability. If ignored, it is very likely to turn into a flood sweeping the world financial industry!"
*Has it started?* He Rui's mood became very good.
Li Chenggang asked tentatively, "Chairman, is this the counterattack from the British financial industry predicted earlier?"
He Rui nodded, "It can't be called a counterattack. The British financial industry actually knows very well that Sino-French cooperation cannot be stopped. So Britain is trying to hedge against this matter."
Before joining the Northeast Government, Li Chenggang had worked in a foreign firm in Tianjin, so he was not very surprised by Britain's actions at this time. He introduced the changes in French newspapers to He Rui, "The French public initially had no interest in the Sino-French Economic Cooperation Agreement. It was not until the Franc began to appreciate and the French stock market rose for two consecutive days that a large number of newspapers began to analyze the impact of Sino-French cooperation, or reprint analyses from other newspapers. Generally speaking, the evaluation is relatively positive."
He Rui looked at the ministers' energetic appearance and knew that everyone couldn't hold back anymore. After all, France had already seen considerable positive effects through financial speculation. France had earned so much, but China hadn't seen any returns yet; everyone wanted to do something immediately.
"Minister Zhuang, is the Ministry of Industry ready to purchase technology for large-scale synthetic ammonia in France?" He Rui began to assign tasks.
Zhuang Jiaxiong immediately took out a document. It was a complete set of tables, "France has already obtained synthetic ammonia production technology from Germany and has built factories in France. However, according to intelligence, the most technologically advanced one right now is actually the Netherlands. It's really surprising."
He Rui immediately replied, "Don't introduce technology from the Netherlands, introduce it from France. We must make it clear to France that we want to cooperate with France to develop larger-scale synthetic ammonia production."
"The reason?" Zhuang Jiaxiong asked immediately.
He Rui could understand Zhuang Jiaxiong's thinking. If they cooperated with France to develop it, it would inevitably cost more money. Everyone was scared of being poor; careful calculation had almost become an instinct. He Rui directly ordered, "Tell France exactly how much arable land China has. To meet the needs of so much arable land, the production efficiency of synthetic ammonia must be improved."
"Will the French take the opportunity to do something?" Zhuang Jiaxiong tried to find the bottom line.
"That depends on the level of communication between you and France. If the French can truly understand one thing: the money France earns comes from the increased grain yield of every *mu* of land in China every year. What we are engaging in is not a stock game, but an incremental game. Then, the French will definitely understand how urgent and legitimate our needs are."
The ministers didn't expect He Rui to be so generous, and they felt more or less uneasy in their hearts. Letting foreigners know China's actual situation always felt like there was some kind of danger.
He Rui could guess the comrades' thoughts, "The danger does not come from France understanding China through our needs. The danger comes from France actually not figuring out our true needs. The French goal at this stage is to maximize the success of the cooperation; this is where France's greatest interest lies at this stage. If China's industrialization process is frustrated, what will be the next cooperation project? Minister Yan, you tell everyone."
Yan Huiqing didn't expect He Rui to suddenly call on him, but Yan Huiqing had participated in the negotiations and immediately answered, "After the investment money is in place, we will establish a Sino-French Joint Bank to operate the 25% Franc cash operation lent to me by France. The companies established using interest-free loans must be listed on the Paris stock market."
He Rui explained, "If our newly established companies are listed on the Paris stock market, it will give the funds entering the Paris stock market more investment targets. This will allow the French financial market to absorb more funds. With more funds, the Franc will be more stable, and French economic confidence will be higher. France's financial status will be more solid. Merely speculative funds can affect the Franc, but real economic development will make the French economy develop better. Judging from the level shown by the French government so far, they will not pick up sesame seeds and lose watermelons for the time being."
Hearing this, Zhuang Jiaxiong nodded silently. He heard He Rui continue, "Explain it clearly to the French side."
He Rui thought that the French side would likely respond the next day, but unexpectedly, Mabeuf came to ask for a meeting with several experts in the evening. Upon seeing He Rui, Mabeuf immediately said, "Mr. Chairman, we greatly appreciate China's view on the incremental economy. Regarding the issue of Dutch synthetic ammonia technology surpassing France, we immediately consulted experts. Please let the expert explain to you."
The French expert immediately made an analysis, "The Dutch oil industry is developed better than France's. The oil industry has high requirements for pipeline technology, and synthetic ammonia production happens to be an industry that also has high requirements for pipelines. Therefore, the technological advantages the Netherlands gained in the oil industry were applied exactly to synthetic ammonia technology. Please rest assured, Mr. Chairman, our French industrial sector has the ability to solve this problem in a short time."
These specific issues were naturally the responsibility of the Ministry of Industry, and He Rui would naturally not take everything on himself. Instead, he let the experts communicate with Zhuang Jiaxiong. Mabeuf said to He Rui, "I have a few questions I want to ask Mr. Chairman. Can we find a quieter room?"
The French side had booked an entire fairly high-class hotel as the residence of the Chinese delegation. There were plenty of rooms. Mabeuf and He Rui went to a reception room next door, and he asked, "I admire China's view on the incremental economy very much. When I was young, I worked in the British financial industry and heard similar theories. The Bank of France hopes to be able to provide help in these aspects."
"Because of the different economic models, even if France adds funds, the help to China would be very limited. So I can only thank the Bank of France for its kindness."
Mabeuf initially wanted to propose providing more interest-free loans, but he didn't expect He Rui to refuse. Worried that He Rui didn't understand, Mabeuf explained, "Mr. Chairman, the Bank of France believes that the loan amount from France to China can reach 50 billion Francs. For the extra 30 billion, we can provide very favorable interest. Judging from the current level of Sino-French cooperation, perhaps the interest can be as low as 2%, or even lower."
He Rui felt that Mabeuf had the wrong direction and smiled, "Mr. Mabeuf, we obtained 20 billion Francs in interest-free loans. In order to support this part of the loan, we in China need to invest 40-60 billion in funds to complete the supporting construction. 50 billion Francs is already beyond our risk assessment."
Mabeuf was stunned. In his professional experience, he had never met anyone who could calmly refuse in the face of such low interest. For ordinary people, money is naturally the more the better. Even if it is not used now, lending it out can earn the interest spread. Having seen so many people, Mabeuf believed his judgment of people would not be wrong. He Rui really had no interest in this money. Mabeuf asked with great interest, "Mr. Chairman, if there are not enough loans, how will you achieve the goal of creating increment?"
"In the first stage, the direction of investment service is agriculture. Do you know how many agricultural people there are in China? What proportion does agricultural output value account for in China's total output value?" He Rui asked.
Mabeuf answered immediately, "According to China's statistics, China's agricultural population accounts for about 85% of China's population, with a total number between 430 million and 450 million. Agricultural output value accounts for 60% of China's total output value. The other 40% is created by industry and service industries."
"According to our research, in the absence of good seeds and chemical fertilizers, relying on synthetic ammonia can increase production by about 25%. Since we have carried out a lot of water conservancy construction, the wheat yield per *mu* is about 200 *jin*. If production can be increased by 25%, that is 50 *jin* more wheat per *mu*."
Hearing He Rui's introduction, Mabeuf sighed, "For your government, are there really so many officials who can promote synthetic ammonia to the majority of farmers?"
He Rui shook his head, "This is not a problem for China. The biggest problem now is that Chinese farmers simply cannot afford chemical fertilizers. Nor have they mastered the relevant techniques for using chemical fertilizers."
Mabeuf was speechless for a moment. He could completely understand the reality He Rui spoke of; let alone Chinese farmers being unable to afford synthetic ammonia fertilizer, French farmers couldn't afford it either. So Mabeuf understood in a moment why He Rui cared so much about lowering the average price of synthetic ammonia fertilizer. But after calculating the price of synthetic ammonia fertilizer, Mabeuf still felt that Chinese farmers couldn't afford it.
Thinking that he was just a banker, Mabeuf asked, "What kind of policy has Mr. Chairman formulated?"
"The largest investment for synthetic ammonia enterprises is in the construction phase. Afterwards, as long as regular inspections and component replacements are carried out, the cost to maintain its operation every year is not high. So we plan to recover the cost over a period of 10-15 years."
"...If it is convenient for you, could you speak more clearly?" Mabeuf still couldn't figure out what to do.
"We will sign agreements with farmers. For the first three years, we will provide fertilizers and training on using fertilizers for free. But we will not tax the increased grain production. However, farmers must sell 50% of the estimated production increase to the government at a low price."
Mabeuf quickly understood how the policy He Rui proposed would operate, and also felt it was a very good method. But he still felt it would be very difficult. Finally, Mabeuf could only sigh, "Mr. Chairman, do you trust the management ability of the Chinese government so much?"
"Yes. I believe in the ability of the Chinese government." He Rui answered confidently, "But the government's power has limits after all, and naturally its ability to undertake industry is limited. In my personal expectation, China's rural grain production can increase by 10% annually. With China's rural population of over 400 million, an annual increase of 10% means that the consumption capacity of Chinese society grows by more than 10% annually. This is the source of China's economic increment."
Even if Mabeuf had a sense of trust in He Rui, such a plan still made Mabeuf feel the difficulty was too great. At least, the French government definitely couldn't do it. After thinking for a while, Mabeuf asked, "Mr. Chairman, in what areas do you think the Bank of France can provide help?"
"In the early stage of economic development, speculative behavior will cause very bad effects. I expect the Bank of France to be able to provide help in normal financial service areas, as well as in anti-speculation areas."
Mabeuf just wanted to smile bitterly. The Bank of France was very experienced in both investment and speculation areas. Since they were proficient in speculation, they naturally also understood anti-speculation very well. It was just that asking the Bank of France to provide help in anti-speculation gave Mabeuf a sense of helpless comedy. Sorting out his mood, Mabeuf replied, "We will definitely give support."
After the conversation, Mabeuf did not accept He Rui's invitation to dinner and left in a hurry with the technical experts.
On January 26, those short-term speculators began to sell Francs after obtaining profits, causing a slight drop in the Franc exchange rate. However, at 10 am, the French government and the Bank of France announced that half of the 20 billion Francs given to China, 10 billion Francs, had been transferred from the Bank of France to the account of the French Ministry of Finance.
As soon as this news came out, the Franc immediately stopped falling and began to turn around and appreciate. The first batch of speculators who entered the market were either retail investors or had a small scale of speculative funds. They took profits and withdrew, and the total amount of funds was limited.
The news about 10 billion Francs being transferred into the Ministry of Finance account meant that 10 billion Francs were withdrawn from the market, and the circulating Francs became fewer. The appreciation of the Franc this time was originally because Sino-French cooperation injected confidence into the French economy, and the Franc was favored. At this time, the Francs on the market decreased, immediately offsetting the sold Francs.
In the French banking and foreign exchange markets, sell orders for Francs immediately decreased significantly, and buy orders increased. The Franc withstood this round of small selling and maintained the appreciation trend of the previous two days. The game regarding the Franc was unveiling its curtain.
The loan for Sino-French cooperation belonged to the nature of a government interest-free loan. The stock of the Bank of France started to move sideways (a price index term, referring to almost no rise or fall) after rising for three days. In this interest-free loan, 25% would be allocated to Chinese banks. 75% would be used to purchase French technology, equipment, and hire experts.
At 3 pm on the 26th, the French Ministry of Finance deliberately staggered the time and announced at a press conference that the Chinese delegation had signed an agreement with the French Renault company to purchase an engine production line and related technologies from Renault.
The opening time of the Paris Stock Exchange was 9 am, and the closing time was 5:30 pm. In the two hours from the end of the Ministry of Finance's press conference to the closing, Renault's stock rose sharply immediately. Not only did Renault's stock rise sharply, but stocks of industries related to Renault's business also rose a bit. Many speculators believed that there would be new news tomorrow.