**Chapter 825: The Era of Global Ebullition (3)**

Einstein scratched his messy, nest-like hair and voiced his greatest confusion at the moment: "I am not a specialist in geology..."

Before Einstein could finish, a scholar well-versed in geology spoke up: "An earthquake of this magnitude would inevitably have aftershocks. However, seismic instruments have detected no aftershocks. Furthermore, these tremors occurred multiple times in the exact same region; crustal structures do not behave this way."

Even without being a geology major, Einstein understood the scientific principles. Since childhood, Einstein's performance in manual labor classes had been extremely poor, which also made him curious about the field of balance. Earthquakes are caused by the breaking or sliding of geological strata; according to mathematical and physical theories, once a large-scale change occurs in the crust of a certain area, it remains stable for a long time. Einstein understood this well, yet he could never maintain that wonderful theoretical balance with his own body.

Professor Fermi wanted to ask whether earthquakes of this magnitude could be triggered by nuclear explosions, but he couldn't bring himself to say it. Scientists often have fanciful ideas, but as a scientist, Fermi knew clearly that China would not be so bored as to simultaneously detonate tens of thousands of tons of TNT in one place. Doing so would be both meaningless and a waste of resources.

After final verification, the scientists found that thirteen nuclear tests were the most logical explanation for thirteen earthquakes of similar magnitude occurring in a specific region of Xinjiang, China.

Having essentially confirmed that China had developed nuclear weapons, Professor Fermi was not afraid; on the contrary, he felt a strong urge to go to China and see for himself. Up to now, the greatest difficulty for the US in developing nuclear weapons was not in theory, but in engineering practice. Building a nuclear weapon required solving countless detailed problems. If the industrial and technical strength of the United States had not yet solved them, then "backward" China had actually achieved it. Fermi was full of interest in China's solutions.

"It's truly difficult to understand that the Chinese could actually build nuclear weapons," Einstein's voice rang out in the quiet meeting room.

Professor Fermi heard surprise, incomprehension, disdain, and displeasure in Einstein's voice. This instinctively surprised Fermi. In the scientific world, truth is truth, and falsehood is falsehood. Einstein's attitude seemed very unrefined.

Before Fermi could figure it out, Einstein continued: "Do the Chinese really understand science? I think there's something wrong here!"

Only then did Professor Fermi realize that Einstein was a racist who believed in white supremacy. This realization greatly surprised Fermi. Most of the European scholars at Oak Ridge had fled to America because of racial persecution; Einstein, a Jew, had suffered deeply from it, yet Fermi hadn't expected Einstein himself to be a racist.

Before Fermi could think of a reply, the door opened, and Chief of Staff General Marshall entered the room. Standing before the scientists, Marshall asked, "Professors, can you tell me exactly what's going on?"

As Marshall listened to the briefing, Professor Fermi carefully watched the general's expression. Marshall's face went from stunned to solemn to expressionless. It was clear Marshall was shocked, but no disdain or contempt for China could be seen in his expression.

Having heard the experts' briefing, General Marshall asked, "Professors, can you be certain of this conclusion?"

No scholar answered. They could only judge based on the data. This morning, a member of President Roosevelt's cabinet had helped establish a dedicated radio channel connecting them to the Coast and Geodetic Survey. Upon receiving the experts' request, the Survey had identified "abnormal data" from among the records by noon. Based on basic physics, the experts calculated that these were earthquakes triggered by explosions equivalent to 30,000 to 50,000 tons of TNT.

The experts then sent a telegram back to the Survey, asking if they had noticed this abnormality earlier. The reply was: "We have no interest in China and have not studied that data."

All of this was merely an inference based on the data; no one had been to the site, so they naturally couldn't be certain. No one was willing to give a definitive answer.

Marshall waited for a while, and seeing that the experts did not answer, he switched to another question: "Professors, what do you think is the probability that China has conducted nuclear tests?"

The scholars hadn't discussed probability; they looked at one another, still unwilling to answer.

Seeing that this group of scholars couldn't even answer this, Marshall felt very displeased. However, Marshall himself was a scholarly general; he didn't get angry but instead proposed a new solution: "Professors, please write down the probability you believe on a piece of paper and hand it to me."

This method clearly solved the scholars' concerns. Scratch paper was not lacking here, and someone soon picked up a stack and distributed it. The scholars only had to write a percentage; some habitually folded the paper, preparing to tear it.

Marshall had been restraining himself, but now he could no longer hold back and ordered coldly, "Do not tear it. Just write it on the paper!"

Having spoken, Marshall felt he might have been too harsh out of anger. He managed a brief explanation: "This way, it will be easier for us to collect the papers."

Professor Fermi took a piece of paper, thought for a moment, and wrote "75%." He then handed the paper to General Marshall.

Marshall didn't look at the numbers on the papers but watched the other scholars with a set jaw. Once all the scholars had written their estimated probabilities, Marshall collected the papers and tapped them on the table several times to align them. He then ordered, "I hope everyone will maintain secrecy. This matter must not be leaked."

The scholars showed little reaction. To them, the principles of nuclear weapons development were too simple to be worth keeping secret. As for the specific research progress, everyone had their own specialty and didn't understand the areas other experts were responsible for.

After saying this, General Marshall turned and left the meeting room. Professor Fermi couldn't help but follow him out. Seeing Fermi following, Marshall stopped. Fermi immediately asked, "General, I have a question—a rather tricky one. I wonder if you can answer me?"

In the darkness, Marshall merely gave a slight nod and asked, "What question?"

"Do you feel insulted by this news?" Fermi asked. Based on his observations of racists, they felt instinctively angry when they were convinced a "lower race" had surpassed them in an important field. Racists interpreted this anger as "feeling insulted!"

Marshall was stunned. After a pause, he replied, "Professor, I do believe that China lagged behind in modern times and became extremely weak. But that does not mean I will ignore reality. In reality, China possesses powerful military force and an advanced level of technology. For America to defeat China, we must pay a massive price. Despising China will only lead to America's failure. Professor, I do not want America to be defeated, so I require you to lead your team to continue working hard and complete America's nuclear weapons as early as possible. If China does not possess nuclear weapons, we will use ours to defeat them. If China does possess them, we need them all the more to protect ourselves! Professor, do you hear me?"

Professor Fermi felt General Marshall's heartfelt anxiety, which was expressed in a very dignified manner. This made Fermi admire Marshall. He replied, "General, please rest assured; we will continue to do our absolute best!"

Early the next morning, after Roosevelt woke up, he first listened to the morning briefing from Marshall and the others. Even at Oak Ridge, bad news followed him like a shadow. The US and British forces were still engaged in a bloodbath with China in the Solomon Islands; three Marine divisions had already had to be withdrawn to the US mainland for replenishment, and a fourth was heavily decimated. Ordinary supplies could no longer maintain its combat effectiveness. The brutal fighting on tropical islands and the harsh environment had led to the replacement of 32% of its officers; the unit was exhausted and requesting relief.

The news from the Hawaiian Islands was equally grim; US daily air losses had reached as high as 700 fighters. With the P-51's ultra-long range, equipped with drop tanks, they could fly in a straight line from the US West Coast to Hawaii. The previous transfer of 5,000 fighters over 4,000 kilometers to Hawaii had been boasted of by the US Air Force as an unprecedented epic in human aviation history.

Roosevelt also thought the Air Force was extraordinary, but 5,000 fighters could only sustain seven days of attrition in Hawaii. This number made the "epic" transfer somewhat meaningless. An epic that only lasts seven days is truly nothing to brag about.

The only thing that made Roosevelt feel a bit better was Australia; the Chinese military hadn't managed to do anything major there yet. Although Roosevelt felt this quiet couldn't last, at this stage he could only hope the Australian region remained quiet for as long as possible!

There was some good news, however. The patriotism of the American people had been fully ignited, and sales of war bonds were good. With sufficient funds, US military production was thoroughly driving the economy. After a large number of relatively well-educated men joined the military, many well-educated women joined the production sectors, providing the US economy with an ample labor force.

This situation didn't even require Roosevelt to inspect industrial areas; right here in the Oak Ridge base, there were many female laborers employed, especially in the technical departments, which had recruited many female college graduates. In Oak Ridge, the proportion of female employees was even higher than that of black people.

While the congressmen were dissatisfied that black people and whites were employed together, they were much more enlightened on the issue of female employment. Congressman Vinson had seen many white female employees in various shipyards, so he showed unusual open-mindedness.

Roosevelt hoped this situation would continue. As long as nothing went wrong with the domestic economy, America was fully capable of fighting China for three years. By now, Roosevelt was convinced that China was not just a "one-wave" wonder but possessed strong production and research capabilities. Yet he still believed the white world could ultimately defeat China.

After the morning meeting, the other cabinet members left. Roosevelt saw that Marshall had no intention of leaving and knew he had something to say. He was already used to the dark circles under Marshall's eyes. Once only Marshall remained, Roosevelt asked, "Is there some new news?"

There was bound to be plenty of bad news during a war; Roosevelt was prepared for bad news from the Pacific. Marshall looked grave and spoke in a voice trying to suppress his unease: "Mr. President, the investigation you ordered yesterday has yielded preliminary results."

Roosevelt couldn't help but frown; he couldn't remember what investigation he had ordered yesterday. After thinking for a while, he asked, "An order to investigate what?"

"The order to investigate whether China possesses nuclear weapons," Marshall replied, still in a voice suppressing his unease as much as possible.

Roosevelt was stunned. He thought the nuclear investigation would take a long time and hadn't thought in that direction. Now, of course, he remembered asking the experts to look into Chinese nuclear research the previous morning. Looking at Marshall's expression, a sense of foreboding instantly swallowed Roosevelt's soul.

But Roosevelt held on, using his greatest courage to ask, "What were the results?"

As he spoke, Roosevelt heard the unease in his own dry voice. Marshall, suppressing his own anxiety, briefed him on the investigation. After finishing the specific details, Marshall continued: "Last night I ordered the military to immediately send people to check the records. This morning we received a reply: those data are all real. And..."

Marshall pulled out a piece of paper and handed it to Roosevelt. "This is an average derived from the judgments submitted by the scholars."

Roosevelt felt his arm go numb, yet relying on the self-control he had practiced through many years of turbulence, he steadily took the paper. The upper half contained the probabilities provided by each scholar. At the bottom, the average was written: 68.31%.

From a probability perspective, 68.31% was considerable. Although not yet a certainty, it was enough to completely influence judgments based on such a probability. Combined with his intuition, Roosevelt was almost certain that China indeed possessed nuclear weapons.

The room fell silent, but not for long. Roosevelt soon rebuilt his inner resolve and asked, "Marshall, I believe you are a man of wisdom. I ask you to tell me sincerely: if you possessed the authority to decide on the use of nuclear weapons, under what circumstances would you use them?"

Marshall hadn't slept all night, spending most of it considering this very question. He himself leaned toward believing China had nuclear weapons, so the torment this question brought him was unprecedented. As an American, Marshall naturally characterized He Rui as a competitive person, but under that logic, He Rui should have already ordered the use of nuclear weapons.

In fact, the fact that He Rui was fighting a war of attrition proved he was much more calm and steady than Marshall had imagined. Characterizing He Rui as an enigma made Marshall's thoughts even more painful. America was engaged in a war of attrition with China because, at this stage, it could only compete using the world's most advanced technology and equipment. A plane costing tens of thousands of dollars had a flying life of less than 100 hours from factory to being shot down and sinking into the sea. If it could be avoided, the US military certainly didn't want to do this. The cost of such high-tech attrition was immense even for America.

Even after calculating that the cost for the Chinese Air Force was roughly half or even a third of theirs, such attrition was still a great burden for China. Marshall found only one logical explanation for He Rui's choice: He Rui believed China could defeat America through conventional warfare. Therefore, there was no need to launch devastating strikes against American industrial zones.

It was like an adult not using lethal force against a child because the adult is confident of victory. But before the war broke out, Marshall had believed America was the adult and China the child.

If he didn't believe China had nuclear weapons, Marshall could still hold to his previous view. but he found he truly couldn't believe, like a racist, that China lacked them simply because it was "naturally backward."

"Marshall, I'm still waiting to hear your view."

Roosevelt's voice pulled Marshall's thoughts back to the brutal reality. Marshall steadied himself and answered as firmly as possible: "Mr. President, I would choose to use nuclear weapons only when it is absolutely necessary to turn the tide of the war."

"And what do you consider a tide-turning situation at this stage?" Roosevelt asked further.

Marshall had long considered this. He had to admit that at this stage, America didn't even have nuclear weapons, so there was no possibility of using them. And with the Pacific War having reached its current point, the situation was clearly unfavorable for the US. Marshall voiced his opinion: "Mr. President, assuming China will not use nuclear weapons in the Pacific War, our choices at this stage are only two. The first is to end the war in the Pacific, pull our forces back to the mainland, and focus entirely on home defense. The second is to hold out against the Chinese offensive at all costs until we have nuclear weapons, then use them to bomb the core islands occupied by China in the Pacific, completely destroying Chinese military power on those islands."

As the discussion shifted to the assumption of the US possessing nuclear weapons, Marshall felt his breathing become much smoother. He continued in a less heavy mood: "In that case, we would be conducting the Pacific War under the condition that both sides have nuclear weapons."

Roosevelt was not fooled by Marshall's little trick. He pushed aside the assumption and went straight to the point: "Marshall, do you believe we *must* maintain the war in the Pacific until we have nuclear weapons?"

Seeing his trick seen through, Marshall no longer hid it. He replied bluntly, "Yes, Mr. President. If China lands on the American mainland, it will mean a nuclear war fought on our own soil. Regardless of the final outcome, a large number of American cities will be destroyed in the process."

"...Is your assumption built on the condition that America does not use nuclear weapons against China?" Roosevelt again caught the key point.

Marshall felt a wave of relief. Working under a leader with high strategic capability avoided many of the frustrations of low-level discussion. Before Marshall could answer, Roosevelt asked further: "America must never fight a war that breaks out on American soil—is that your view?"

"Yes, Mr. President," Marshall answered decisively, but he wasn't prepared to say more. Although he had to consider that America would face a very humiliating situation, Marshall believed that even if they lost all the islands in the Pacific and gave China dominant control over Pacific navigation, as long as they could reach a truce, America would have to "hold its nose" and swallow the bitter pill.

If Chinese boots stepped onto American soil, the nature of the war would change completely. A war for Pacific hegemony would cost America dearly if lost. But that was, after all, an external war; no matter how great the loss or how much face was lost, the damage remained controllable. America could still decide on a truce to prevent even greater losses.

As a soldier, Marshall could not interfere in politics. Even if a Sino-American truce were reached, Marshall, as the wartime Chief of Staff, was destined to be disgraced. Not only Marshall, but the entire Roosevelt administration would fall into disgrace. The reason he still considered a truce after realizing this was because Marshall was certain that once the war between China and the US turned into an American war of national defense, the conflict would spiral completely out of control. Enormous, unimaginable changes would occur within America; Marshall had performed some simulations and found these changes impossible to predict.

In the worst-case scenario, the United States might split from within. From then on, the US would cease to exist. Compared to such an outcome, Marshall felt his personal honor and disgrace were not that important.