**Chapter 822: Empire's Survival (10)**

As the Commander-in-Chief of the German Army, Field Marshal von Brauchitsch should not have used the term "fragile" to describe the Soviet Red Army, yet he did. This led Hitler to believe that von Brauchitsch fully supported going to war with the Soviets, prompting the Führer to nod repeatedly in agreement.

Beside him, Reichsmarschall Göring was less than pleased with von Brauchitsch's attitude, as the Field Marshal seemed to have his own ideas on how to employ the Luftwaffe. Göring viewed the Air Force as his personal fiefdom; even if von Brauchitsch was praising the Luftwaffe's superiority over the Soviet Air Force, Göring remained disgruntled.

Hitler didn't dwell on this. He continued to inquire about von Brauchitsch's views on the invasion. Von Brauchitsch continued to outline the Army's perspective. In the 1941 version of Operation Barbarossa, the invading forces were divided into three Army Groups, each assigned specific regions and major cities:

Army Group North: Departing from East Prussia under the cover of over 1,000 aircraft, passing through Daugavpils and Ostrov, crossing the central-western Soviet Union (present-day Belarus) to occupy or destroy Leningrad. Total strength: 29 divisions.

Army Group Center: Departing from east of Warsaw under the cover of over 1,600 aircraft, passing through Brest, Minsk, and Smolensk to attack Moscow. Total strength: 51 divisions.

Army Group South: Under the cover of over 1,400 aircraft, attacking the densely populated agricultural heartland of Ukraine, deploying from Lublin to the mouth of the Danube to take Kiev, then advancing toward the Donbass, eventually striking into the southern Russian steppes toward the Volga and the oil-rich Caucasus. Total strength: 63 divisions.

Now it was 1942. While the Wehrmacht had strengthened, the Soviet reinforcement had outpaced them. Taking the Air Force as an example, the 1941 Barbarossa plan intended to commit 4,000 fighters. Now, after 20 months of preparation, the number of fighters the Wehrmacht could actually deploy was only 11,000. While von Brauchitsch's figure of 90,000 pilots was accurate, Germany only had 27,000 fighters total, and a portion of those were scheduled for retirement.

This was not only because the Wehrmacht was upgrading its equipment—including developing fighters with better air combat capabilities and jet fighters—leading to the suspension of old production lines.

Another reason was the deep division within the Luftwaffe over whether to build a strategic air force. Strategic air operations typically target the enemy's rear political and economic centers, heavy troop concentrations, strategic bases, and transportation hubs. These operations are organized independently by the air force or in conjunction with other branches to strike strategic targets and weaken the enemy's war potential. The primary weapons used are heavy bombers (strategic bombers), and the forces executing these missions are known as strategic forces.

China and the United States were at the forefront of air force R&D, both equipped with four-engine heavy bombers. These bombers could carry 10 tons of bombs to targets 3,000 kilometers away. Although Germany also wanted a strategic air force, it was only a medium-sized country with a compact territory; passenger planes with a range of 1,000 kilometers could fully satisfy domestic needs. There was no domestic demand for aircraft with a range exceeding 3,000 kilometers; they would have to run international routes to be profitable.

After the Great Depression, Germany lacked the capability to join the competition for international air routes, and domestic demand was non-existent. Hitler had to rely on state takeovers of aircraft companies and forced orders to compel the German aviation industry to invest in fighter R&D. To date, Germany could only produce the tactical aircraft it needed—fighters with a range not exceeding 2,000 kilometers.

Conversely, China and the United States both possessed vast territories and enormous demand. Furthermore, China's economic and trade relations with the Soviet Union were extensive, and it had a decade of good cooperation with France. China needed long-range civil airliners not only for domestic travel but also for transcontinental routes, accumulating rich experience over more than ten years.

The United States also had massive domestic and international demand, coupled with an advanced industrial base, giving it great strength in this field.

Germany only began attempting to develop long-range large aircraft after the Western European campaign, and it was simply too late. Moreover, this short-term research had already occupied a large number of German engineers, causing Germany to fall behind in the development of piston-engine fighters.

Hitler was well aware of this. He didn't question von Brauchitsch further but turned to Göring. "Göring, when can the Luftwaffe be equipped with 50,000 fighters?"

Göring had been a famous German pilot in the First World War; the Air Force was his professional domain. Even feeling Hitler's expectation, Göring did not yield. He answered decisively: "My Führer, if we want an air force that completely overwhelms the Soviet Union, we need until early 1943 at the earliest. Currently, the Soviet Union can produce 30,000 fighters a year. Even if their models are very outdated, the quantity is large enough. Our forces will encounter massive Soviet air attacks during the war."

Hitler understood Göring's meaning: the war should ideally start after early 1943. Do not strike now. If we strike now, do not expect to gain air superiority.

The Wehrmacht's victory in the Western European campaign was largely due to the tactical air force's seizure of air superiority, allowing them to relentlessly bomb the French front and rear. The French army was unable to resist the attacks from the air and eventually collapsed.

But Hitler was no longer prepared to wait. If he continued to wait, the Soviet military equipment would likely achieve a huge advantage, and Germany would completely lose the initiative for an offensive. More importantly, if Germany went to war with the Soviet Union now, the United States, as a member of the Allied Powers, would be forced to support Germany. Once the US and Soviet Union truly reached a compromise, the US might very well make peace with China in exchange for US-Soviet privileges in Europe.

Since he could wait no longer, Hitler asked again: "Göring, can the Luftwaffe currently achieve superiority?"

After a moment's hesitation, Göring replied quite confidently: "We can win!"

Hitler then turned to Field Marshal von Brauchitsch. "Marshal, if we wait until early 1943, given the quantity of Soviet equipment you are aware of, do you have confidence in winning?"

Von Brauchitsch shook his head. "If the Soviet Union possesses 30,000 tanks, we will likely fall into a stalemate with the Soviet army along the Dnieper line. The General Staff judges that once we capture Kiev, the Soviet Union will immediately seek help from China. In the first stage, China is very likely to send a large number of fighters to help. At that time, we may lose all our air superiority."

Von Brauchitsch didn't state the consequences of losing air superiority, but both Hitler and Göring understood what such a situation would mean. Once the Wehrmacht lost air superiority, its armored offensives on the ground would be subject to air strikes at any time, making a smooth offensive impossible.

Current German armored tactics followed the tactics of the Teutonic Knights from centuries ago: flanking maneuvers. Since the era of the Teutonic Knights, there had been a saying among German knights: "No flanking, no war." The same was true for current German armored warfare: using air bombardment to create conditions for armored units to break through enemy lines. Once both flanks broke through, the two German wings would meet at a point in the enemy's rear, cutting off their supply lines. Then, the armored units would turn back and attack from the enemy's weak rear.

Throughout the entire process, the German forces at the front would use fierce attacks to draw the enemy's attention, preventing them from diverting troops to defend their rear, leading to the enemy's annihilation within the encirclement.

This flanking tactic required constant air support. Once the enemy air force launched a fierce attack on any part of the encirclement, the outnumbered German forces would be unable to maintain the ring, allowing the trapped enemy to break out or even conduct a counter-encirclement.

Hitler understood this very well; he knew Germany's opportunities were running out. If they waited, even if Germany's offensive gained an initial advantage, it wouldn't be able to defeat the Soviet Union. Whether or not to launch the war depended on Hitler's own judgment.

Ending the meeting, Hitler spent another two hours alone in his office before finally making up his mind and summoning Rundstedt, Manstein, and Reichenau.

After nightfall, the two Marshals and General Manstein arrived at the Chancellery. Upon entering, they saw Hitler with Rudolf Hess and Foreign Minister Ribbentrop. The expressions of the three generals turned cold. To them, Hess and Ribbentrop were mere Nazi partisans, not true statesmen. Even if Ribbentrop had secured the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact and Hess had secured the Anglo-German peace, both had been achieved by forcing the other side's hand through Germany's war strength, not through any extraordinary ability of their own.

Hitler had seen enough of this. He invited the three generals forward and stepped out from behind his large desk, stopping before them. Facing Field Marshal von Rundstedt, the most senior and prestigious officer in the German military, Hitler asked: "Field Marshal von Rundstedt, do you believe that in 1943, our army can defeat the Soviet Union through an offensive?"

Rundstedt had already conducted multiple simulations at the General Staff on this. He answered decisively: "Impossible."

Hitler continued: "Then, Field Marshal, do you believe that in 1944, we can completely defeat a Soviet invasion of Germany while both China and the United States are indulging and secretly supporting the Soviet Union?"

Rundstedt didn't hesitate: "Impossible."

Hitler believed Rundstedt's judgment reflected the view of the General Staff and asked further: "Field Marshal, under what conditions do you think the Soviet Union would choose to take the initiative to attack Germany?"

This was a question of higher technical caliber. Although Rundstedt had studied it carefully with the high command of the General Staff, they had yet to reach a consensus. Hearing Hitler's inquiry, Rundstedt reflected for a moment before giving his view: "Personally, I believe the Soviet Union would conduct a military invasion of Germany after Germany has been attacked by another country."

Hitler, hearing this answer, turned to the other two generals. Manstein had now been promoted to General. Although the rank of Colonel General (Generaloberst) still stood between him and Field Marshal, Hitler actually valued Manstein's assessment more than that of some Marshals. Manstein's strategic judgment during the Western European campaign had been clearly superior to that of some who were promoted to Marshal after the campaign.

Seeing Hitler look his way, Manstein simply stood straight and did not speak. In the German General Staff, Manstein was currently viewed as a near-traitor who "sided with outsiders." In the final stages of the French campaign, Manstein had only served as commander of the 38th Corps, tasked with pursuing the remnants of the French army—effectively being pushed out of the General Staff through a "promotion" that was actually a demotion.

Although Manstein's superior, Rundstedt, had been trying to help him return to the General Staff, progress was slow. Therefore, Manstein did not want to stand out at this time, at least not before Field Marshal Reichenau spoke.

Furthermore, Hitler's question was indeed difficult. Although Rundstedt was Manstein's old boss, Manstein did not agree with Rundstedt's view. Thus, he was even more reluctant to speak first.

Hitler also knew Manstein's situation at the General Staff. Seeing no intention from him to speak, Hitler turned to Field Marshal Reichenau, the one most loyal to Nazism among the Marshals. "Field Marshal, under what circumstances do you think the Soviet Union would strike first?"

Reichenau had also been worrying about this lately. The Soviet Union's equipment and troop numbers were constantly increasing; by 1943, they would become an opponent Germany would find very difficult to defeat. Everyone in the General Staff believed the eastern threat was growing larger and remained unresolved.

The few German generals who opposed an invasion of the Soviet Union believed Germany needed to build a long defensive line along the border between the Soviet Union and the Axis powers to deal with a Soviet offensive. Even the generals who didn't want to attack knew this was unrealistic. The line was extremely long, and there were militarily weak countries like Romania that would require German support. Given such resources, it would be better to use them for an offensive to knock the Soviet Union out in one go.

Facing Hitler's question, Reichenau replied: "My Führer, my view is similar to Field Marshal von Rundstedt's. The Soviet Union would launch an attack on Germany when Germany is being attacked by China, taking advantage of the dispersal of German forces."

Hitler wasn't very satisfied with this answer. He felt Reichenau placed too much importance on China; if China could reach the German border, it would mean they had at least conquered Southern Europe. If China truly had such power, Germany should simply make peace with them. Whether or not the Soviet Union would attack would then become secondary.

Turning to General Manstein, Hitler asked the same question.

Only then did Manstein reply: "My Führer, I believe the Soviet Union might not attack Germany, but would instead strike at Eastern Europe once China has seized the Suez Canal, in order to link up with China."

Hitler was taken aback. This view was enlightening, reminiscent of the feeling he had when he first saw Manstein's plan before the Western European campaign.

"Why?" Hitler asked.

"Attacking Germany would require a massive price, and the Russians never fight such battles. Taking the initiative to attack Eastern Europe would be low in difficulty, and the Soviet Union could directly control Eastern Europe after the war. As for an attack on Germany, that would only be a choice made after Germany has already suffered a crushing blow. By then, whether or not the Soviet Union attacks Germany would hold little meaning for us."

Hearing this, Hitler was certain that the three generals, like von Brauchitsch, all believed it was necessary for Germany to take the initiative to attack the Soviet Union. He turned to Foreign Minister Ribbentrop. "Ribbentrop, tell the generals your views on how to contact China."

Ribbentrop immediately stepped forward and said respectfully to the three generals: "At this stage, concerning the Soviet Union, we only wish to ask China one question: what is China's view on how much of the eastern Soviet territory belongs to them? Is it the Far East, or Siberia, or even up to the Volga? As long as China allies with Germany, we can agree to their demands."

The expressions of the three generals were grim. The General Staff had long considered the issue of allying with China. It wasn't just about ceding everything east of the Volga. If China proposed that everything west of the Volga went to Germany and everything east to China—or even if China's price for an alliance was the overthrow of the Nazi regime—a considerable portion of the General Staff would find it completely acceptable. Trading the mere Nazi Party for Germany's bright future would be a great deal for Germany!

However, the generals knew well that such things were just wishful thinking. He Rui would never agree; if he had, China and Germany would have allied long ago! It never would have dragged on until now with the two sides still in a state of war.

This was also one of the reasons the German generals looked down on Ribbentrop the "parvenu." If he were truly so capable, why hadn't he been able to change Sino-German relations in ten years?

Ribbentrop didn't mind. He continued: "As for territory, our requirement is that China does not restrict Germany from obtaining oil from the Middle East. If China can accept this, Germany doesn't mind China obtaining the Middle East and Africa. On this matter, the Foreign Ministry has commissioned Professor Karl [Haushofer] to make contact with Chinese officials and convey our views."

Hearing Ribbentrop mention Professor Karl, the expressions of the three generals softened. Professor Karl had been an elite officer in the General Staff before the First World War and was a grandmaster of academia. Even though he had retired, the General Staff still held great respect for him.

Once Ribbentrop finished, Hitler said: "Gentlemen, regardless of the results of the Foreign Ministry's contact with China, we must prepare for war against the Soviet Union as quickly as possible. I wonder what views you three have regarding the timing of the offensive?"

Rundstedt was the first to speak again: "It would be best to be prepared before May 10th."

Hitler looked at the other two generals and received the same answer.

In the modified Barbarossa plan proposed by von Brauchitsch this time, the Wehrmacht was no longer divided into three Army Groups, but into two. The goal of the Northern Army Group was to attack toward Moscow after defeating the Soviet frontier concentrations, threatening Moscow along the way to force the Red Army to concentrate there.

The Southern Army Group would target Kiev. After taking Kiev, they would drive south to seize the Baku oil fields and capture the eastern hubs of the Trans-Siberian Railway. Commando units would then be sent to completely destroy the railway, preventing China from assisting the Soviet Union in the short term.

Only after these goals were achieved would the Wehrmacht move the Southern Army Group's forces north to cooperate with the Northern Army Group in the assault on Moscow.

Compared to the 1941 plan, the 1942 Barbarossa plan shifted from a general offensive to a focused one. The Army Group North was abolished; although an offensive in the north still existed, its purpose was only to seize the three Baltic states and help them build up military forces to resist Soviet attacks from the direction of Saint Petersburg.

The forces of the original Army Group North were used to reinforce the Southern Army Group to quickly seize southern Soviet territory and annihilate the heavy Soviet concentrations in that area. This way, the troops dispatched by the various Axis nations could function as security forces to maintain order, allowing the Wehrmacht to focus its attention on fighting the Red Army.

Although time was short, Germany was well-prepared. The first wave of combat troops required only 3.3 million; the remaining 2.2 million would only need to be replenished within two months to be committed to the war.

The three generals all supported taking the initiative to attack the Soviet Union to completely eliminate the eastern threat. Seeing that Hitler had made his decision, they all saluted him. At this moment, the Nazi leadership reached a final consensus on the invasion of the Soviet Union.