文明破晓 (English Translation)

— "This world needs a more advanced form of civilization"

V07C112 - American Personality (8)

Volume 7: World War II · Chapter 112

**Chapter 811: American Personality (8)**

"Comrade Molotov, is it possible that the United States is already prepared to accept China's control over the entire Pacific?" After posing this question, Stalin took another puff from his pipe.

Amidst the pure aroma of Zimbabwe tobacco, Molotov voiced a judgment he wasn't yet entirely certain of: "Comrade General Secretary, I believe such a possibility exists. However, at this stage, it's impossible to judge when China will be able to defeat the US military in the Pacific. The US will not accept such a result until they have exhausted their navy."

Stalin did not further discuss military issues with the People's Commissar for Foreign Affairs. Ending his meeting with Molotov, he contemplated the war between China and the United States while waiting for Tukhachevsky and Zhukov to arrive.

Russia had never been a major naval power, and Stalin could find no way to truly understand the great Pacific war between China and the US from Russian naval history. The thought of a war conducted across tens of millions of square kilometers of vast ocean left Stalin deeply perplexed.

The battles between the Asian Allied forces and the Allied forces in the Solomon Islands were still within the realm of Stalin's understanding; after all, those islands ranged from a thousand to ten thousand square kilometers in size. There, both sides could deploy a certain amount of force. But Stalin could not understand the reason for fighting for dozens of days over a tiny island of just a few square kilometers.

Since he couldn't make sense of it, Stalin gave up on imagining the war and turned his thoughts back to strategic issues. The Soviet Union had reaped enormous benefits from the Western European campaign, acquiring eastern Poland and the three Baltic states. The CPSU, having tasted success, was eager to seize even greater interests in World War II.

The Soviet Union currently had a population of 180 million, a number roughly equal to the combined populations of Germany, Britain, and France. The Third Five-Year Plan had greatly enhanced the Soviet Union's strength; by any measure, the time had come to seize more interests. However, the progress of World War II had exceeded the Soviet Union's expectations, and the great naval battles between China and the US were simply not a field in which the Soviet Union could intervene. The Soviet Pacific Fleet was insignificant before China and the US; even the Japanese Navy could easily destroy it.

The German Army was very powerful, and the Soviet Red Army General Staff's simulations targeting Germany did not satisfy the Central Committee of the CPSU. Stalin himself could not accept those wishful battle simulations.

Given the current situation, Stalin was inclined to continue waiting. But watching China capture territory in Asia and rapidly gain a sphere of influence with a population of 400 million by liberating colonies made Stalin feel an uncontrollable restlessness in his heart.

"Comrade General Secretary, Marshal Tukhachevsky and General Zhukov have arrived," the secretary's voice interrupted Stalin's thoughts.

As the two Soviet military leaders entered the office, Stalin asked point-blank: "If we were to join the Allied Powers, would China attempt to ally with Germany?"

Both Tukhachevsky and Zhukov were stunned; they hadn't expected Stalin to ask such an aggressive question. Zhukov couldn't help but answer: "Comrade General Secretary, I believe that if our country joins the Allied Powers, China will definitely choose to ally with Germany."

After speaking, Zhukov thought for a moment and continued with a deeper thought: "Although Nazi Germany joined the Allied Powers, its purpose was not to protect Britain or Europe, but to gain leadership over the Fascist bloc. What the Fascist bloc hopes for is hegemony in Europe, thereby gaining the Suez Canal, and subsequently meeting their demand for Middle Eastern oil."

Marshal Tukhachevsky did not participate in the discussion. As a Marshal, he maintained his status and was more concerned with how to command the mechanized Soviet Red Army to sweep across Europe. Serious simulations within the Red Army had long concluded that the Soviet Union was absolutely no match for the Sino-Japanese forces in the Far East. As a Marshal of the Red Army, Tukhachevsky opposed fighting a war that was certain to be lost—unless China struck first in the Far East.

After hearing Zhukov's serious answer, Stalin became even more firm in his decision to reject the American invitation. Since the Soviet Union could not join the Allies, the remaining choice was to fight the Allies—or remain neutral.

Asking the two generals to sit, Stalin inquired about the suggestions brought by the Chinese delegation. Hearing the two generals describe China's expectation for the Soviet Union and Germany to maintain peace, Stalin's brow furrowed slightly. At first glance, this suggestion was much more peaceful than the American one and seemed to have no ill intent. However, upon closer reflection, this Chinese suggestion contained two intentions.

China, out of its own interests, hoped that the Soviet Union, by maintaining a neutral and peaceful status, would use its vast territory as a screen behind China, providing strategic security and allowing China to focus on the war in the south.

Once Stalin understood this layer of meaning, he said to the two generals: "From this suggestion, He Rui is truly a man who loves war."

Marshal Tukhachevsky couldn't help but express his agreement: "Comrade General Secretary, China does not understand the war in Europe. Following China's suggestion might very likely trigger a German offensive."

Stalin tended to agree with Tukhachevsky's view: "The demilitarization of the border between China and the Soviet Union is a plan that can only be implemented between countries with vast territories like ours. The Chinese side seems to have misunderstood the meaning of demilitarization; they see it as an 'attitude' and have not realized that demilitarization simply turns the border between two countries into a military buffer zone..."

Zhukov did not participate in the discussion between Stalin and Tukhachevsky because he personally agreed more with the Chinese suggestion. In Zhukov's view, the Chinese suggestion looked at the war from a strategic perspective, while the military deployments currently being executed by the Soviet Union looked at the war from a tactical perspective.

From a strategic level, considering a possible Soviet-German war required considering its ultimate result. The German General Staff's level of understanding of war was very high, at least not inferior to that of the Chinese National Defense Force Military Commission. Therefore, the German General Staff would inevitably consider the possibility that once the Soviet-German war broke out and the Soviet Union fell into a total disadvantage, it would inevitably seek help from China.

If the war reached this stage, would China help the Soviet Union? Zhukov believed there was a very high probability that China would help, and he believed the German General Staff would also think that given the current situation, the Soviet Union joining China's side would bring much greater strategic benefits than a Sino-German alliance.

From such strategic considerations, He Rui was undoubtedly a brilliant strategist. A truly brilliant strategist would never easily let the situation change, but instead worked to maintain the strategic status quo in the most favorable and easiest position for themselves. It was based on this philosophy that He Rui had sent people to the Soviet Union to convey China's concerns.

This expression contained two aspects: first, expressing China's willingness to help the Soviet Union cope with a war crisis if one broke out; second, expressing China's expectation for the Soviet Union to maintain a peaceful status quo while war had not yet broken out.

Zhukov internally disagreed with Stalin's assessment of He Rui as "bellicose." He Rui's war aims were very clear: to establish a new world order. Although Zhukov did not believe in so-called eternal peace, the new order proposed by He Rui could clearly reduce the chances of future continuous wars.

Conversely, the Soviet Union was currently seeking interests by exploiting the wars of other countries, to the point where there was now a strong impulse within the CPSU to seek even greater interests by participating in the war. Zhukov believed this might be the true reason He Rui sent people to convey the Chinese view. Based on the views proposed by the Chinese representatives, Zhukov further believed that He Rui thought the Soviet Red Army's chances of winning were not high if it took the initiative to attack. Regardless of whether He Rui thought so, Zhukov, who was responsible for reserve work, believed the Soviet Union's chances of winning an offensive were indeed not high.

By now, Stalin and Tukhachevsky had finished criticizing He Rui, and Stalin asked: "Comrade Tukhachevsky, how long do you think it would take for us to complete a military operation to 'liberate' Poland if we took the initiative?"

Marshal Tukhachevsky did not believe the Red Army would lose, so he skipped the unasked question of victory or defeat and answered confidently: "To liberate Poland, we would need to deploy 3 million Red Army troops. With the equipment the Red Army has now completed, it would take about 4 to 6 months."

Stalin felt the judgment of defeating the German elite in Poland within 3 to 6 months was a bit too optimistic. The German army had eliminated Poland in three weeks and defeated France in 42 days; its combat power was extremely formidable. Even if Germany currently had only 2 million regular troops while the Soviet Red Army had 6 million, even if the Soviet Union sent all its troops, it might not necessarily defeat the German army in six months.

However, Tukhachevsky's judgment wasn't excessively optimistic either; the German-controlled area of Poland was only so large, and the Red Army also had to place enough troops in the southern region. Even if the risk of war between China and the Soviet Union was extremely low, at least 100,000 troops would have to be kept in the Far East. Completely withdrawing troops from the Far Eastern Military District would be a very unprofessional military decision. Therefore, the Red Army that could truly fight in Poland would be about 3 million.

Seeing Zhukov remaining silent, Stalin asked: "Comrade Zhukov, what do you think?"

Zhukov immediately replied: "I believe that with our current logistical capacity, we can maintain the logistical needs of 3 million Red Army troops in Poland for 3 to 6 months."

Previously, Zhukov had been removed from the position of Chief of the General Staff because he spoke very directly and did not cater to the views of the Politburo. Although Zhukov also felt he had learned his lesson, he truly could not say things that went against his conscience.

Sure enough, Stalin heard the meaning in these words, and his expression became somewhat unpleasant. But Stalin took a puff from his pipe and continued to ask: "So, what does Comrade Zhukov think of the Chinese suggestion?"

"Personally, I think it is an option that can be chosen. Germany is currently not sure of completely defeating our army. When our main force withdraws to the previous border line and continues to rely on the previous 'Eastern Line' to complete the defense system, Germany will certainly not dare to easily invade our country." Zhukov continued to state his true opinion.