American Personality (4)
Volume 7: World War II · Chapter 108
Roosevelt naturally knew that Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Melkin hoped for him to shoulder the responsibility. Thus, after reading the plan, Roosevelt did not speak immediately but sat quietly, waiting for Admiral Melkin to explain his reasoning. After a moment, seeing that the Admiral remained silent, Roosevelt was forced to cough once and stare directly at him.
Under such a clear hint, Admiral Melkin bravely stated the current situation. "Mr. President, the Japanese forces in the direction of Hawaii are engaging us in a war of attrition. Based on the Navy's understanding of Japan, they have never favored attrition warfare. The Japanese military's pre-war conceptualization envisioned a quick war and a quick resolution—a single decisive victory. Therefore, I believe this is China's order to Japan. If our forces engage in a war of attrition with China across all Pacific theaters, our disadvantages will eventually manifest. Thus, in the short term, our forces must rely on superior troop strength to deal the Japanese army a head-on blow. Only by making Japan realize they lack the power to exhaust us can we win opportunities in the ensuing war."
After listening to this explanation, Roosevelt turned his head to look at White House Special Advisor Harry Lloyd Hopkins. Hopkins had engaged in social welfare work in his early years. He met Roosevelt in 1928 and became his closest aide. After Franklin Roosevelt was elected president in 1933, he successively served as Administrator of the Federal Emergency Relief Administration, Administrator of the Works Progress Administration, and Secretary of Commerce, assisting Roosevelt in implementing the New Deal. In 1939, Hopkins was appointed Secretary of Commerce. In 1940, he resigned from his cabinet post due to illness.
After the war broke out, Harry Lloyd Hopkins served as Roosevelt's personal advisor, responsible for military industry and policy work, and was known as the "Shadow President."
Seeing Roosevelt look over, Hopkins nodded with some difficulty. He had suffered from typhoid fever as a child and was frail and sickly, earning the nickname "Skinny Monkey." Because of his constant illnesses, he had never been fat in his life. At this time, his stomach ailment was already severe, accompanied by other conditions. Coupled with his busy work schedule, his body was exceedingly emaciated.
Even so, Hopkins' gaze remained sharp. He strongly agreed with the Chief of Naval Operations' view. Since before the war broke out, Hopkins had believed that China possessed powerful capabilities, and China's leader, He Rui, was himself a military strategist capable of effectively leveraging the Chinese military's strength.
After the outbreak of war, Hopkins quickly determined that China had adopted what seemed to be the clumsiest and bloodiest mode of warfare, which was simultaneously the most effective mode: waging a war of attrition against the United States. Therefore, in late January of 1942, Hopkins had formally suggested to Roosevelt that the United States had no choice but to wage a war of attrition against China as well.
Although China's construction of a modern navy was a matter of less than twenty years, China had clearly taken the aircraft carrier route from the very beginning. On this new track of warfare, there was no true gap between China and the United States. Therefore, the United States could not hope to rely on superior tactical abilities to accumulate victories and thereby overwhelm China.
Moreover, China had a vast population, and its national income was lower than that of the United States. During twenty years of rapid development, the He Rui government had accumulated absolute prestige among the Chinese people. This prestige was sufficient for China to endure a considerable degree of tactical losses. In contrast, the United States, due to a standard of living higher than China's and its own traditions, relied on the patriotic sentiment of its citizens for its endurance in war, rather than on unconditional trust in the government.
Therefore, the United States absolutely could not hope to rely on a decisive battle mode to deliver a "one-wave" knockout blow to China. The United States could only compete in consumption, using the massive quantity of equipment built by its powerful industrial level to wage a war of attrition against China.
Facts had proven that Hopkins' judgment was correct. The Asian Allied Forces, relying on overwhelming air superiority, had beaten the British home forces until they were scrambling for their teeth, and the so-called millions of colonial troops had shown no ability to resist. The United States, precisely because it had not rashly launched a decisive battle, had managed to hold its ground when facing China's seemingly endless stream of aircraft. If the United States had gambled everything on a decisive battle, even if they hadn't been wiped out in one go, they would at least have lost the ability to maintain the Pacific front.
Since Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Melkin had decided to drag it out, Hopkins would naturally agree.
Seeing Melkin nod, Roosevelt turned back to the Admiral. "Within three months, the thirty thousand fighter planes desired by the Naval Staff will arrive in Hawaii."
After speaking, Roosevelt thought Admiral Melkin would accept this result happily, but he saw no trace of relief on the Admiral's face. Admiral Melkin pressed his lips together, clearly dissatisfied. Roosevelt's heart sank; he sensed the war situation was likely even worse than he had imagined.
Admiral Melkin had already prepared himself mentally. He said, "Mr. President, we need fifty thousand. Up to now, the fighter losses on the Hawaii front have already exceeded nine thousand, and it is possible they have now surpassed ten thousand. Since we have no way to rescue pilots who land in the water, we need a replenishment of fifty thousand pilots and fighter planes within three months."
"...Japan has fifty thousand pilots?" Roosevelt asked, almost word for word.
Melkin nodded. "According to our intelligence, Japan has one hundred thousand pilots who have completed basic training."
Roosevelt did not answer immediately. According to the report provided by Hopkins, the United States currently produced one hundred thousand fighter planes and ten thousand bombers annually. Even so, since the Australian theater also required a large number of fighters at this time, for the United States to maintain such high-intensity consumption, annual aircraft production needed to reach two hundred thousand. America's industrial strength could withstand such losses, but if this continued, the U.S. government might not be able to withstand the economic pressure.
The relatively cheap P-51 fighter had a cost of 50,000 USD (1942 prices). Two hundred thousand planes would cost 10 billion USD. Furthermore, fighters required fuel, personnel training, wages, and pensions for the fallen. This cost would likely be another 100,000 USD. Calculated overall, the value of a P-51 and a pilot over a full combat lifespan was 150,000 USD. Two hundred thousand planes would be 30 billion USD. The war bonds issued by the United States and military expenditures to date had barely reached 150 billion USD. If they followed Admiral Melkin's request, 20% of that 150 billion USD would be spent on fighter planes alone.
The United States was not only using fighter planes in this war; there were many places that required money. It was impossible to invest such a large proportion in fighters alone.
But Roosevelt was Roosevelt, after all. He did not get angry; instead, he replied calmly, "Admiral, those thirty thousand fighters will definitely be sent to Hawaii within three months. The other planes will be prepared."
Admiral Melkin knew this was the limit Roosevelt could accept at this stage. He did not bargain further, simply stating, "Mr. President, the Pacific Command will do everything in its power to defeat the Japanese forces. It is just that the Naval Staff believes that victory can only be guaranteed by obtaining fifty thousand fighters within three months."
Roosevelt nodded, signaling for Admiral Melkin to leave. After the Admiral left the conference room, Roosevelt maneuvered his wheelchair to spin 180 degrees on the spot. He took out a cigar and lit it. The gloom in his heart was difficult to dispel, so he simply thought of He Rui. Roosevelt very much wanted to know if He Rui was also enduring immense pressure.
Half of what Roosevelt thought was correct; the He Rui government was indeed enduring the immense pressure brought by war consumption. Premier of the State Council Wu Youping currently had no time to consider consumption, nor was he willing to. After all, before the war broke out, He Rui had clearly pointed out the direction for victory: China must rely on powerful production capacity to overwhelm the U.S. military. Facing such a powerful industrial nation as the United States, no tactical ability could play a decisive role.
At Politburo meetings, whenever military personnel giving reports introduced the war situation between China and the U.S., there were often statements made with lingering fear: "If not for the Chairman's previous instructions, we would have been overtaken by the U.S. military's [XX] system." These answers caused Premier Wu Youping to lose all optimistic expectations for the war. It had to be said that before the war, seeing so many high-end technologies and equipment, Wu Youping had felt the Chinese military could definitely defeat the "backward U.S. military" as easily as slicing melons and cutting vegetables. And in reality, while China had indeed thrashed the former world hegemon, Britain, with ease, when facing the U.S. military, they had met their match.
If there was anything left that made Wu Youping sigh, it was probably that American "endurance" exceeded his pre-war imagination. With the technological and numerical advantages the United States possessed, Britain was simply unqualified to go head-to-head with them; the U.S. military could completely crush the British forces. Yet, possessing such a massive advantage in strength, the United States had managed to endure until now without directly uprooting British power in North America. This endurance, this patience to wait for an opportunity, truly made Wu Youping wary.
Wu Youping had personally participated in the nation's construction and knew very well that the He Rui government had only come to possess such strength through more than twenty years of painstaking effort. If China had possessed such strength earlier, needless to say, they would have made their move in the West Pacific long ago! In contrast, the United States had been able to endure until now. Therefore, Wu Youping believed that even if China established a new world order, the United States would remain the most powerful and dangerous opponent challenging that new order.
What exceeded Roosevelt's imagination was He Rui's attitude. At this moment, He Rui felt no pressure at all, because he knew the strength of the United States very well. What He Rui could not be certain of at this stage was the influence of the American character on the war. If one viewed the entire United States as a rational actor, once China won the Pacific War, the United States would choose a truce.
However, anthropomorphizing a nation is an extremely erroneous attitude in political thinking, because a nation with a definite form does not fundamentally exist. He Rui could only fight on with "bottom-line thinking," watching as he fought. The United States was too large, and its industrial strength was extremely strong. As long as the United States could still produce massive amounts of military equipment, it was unlikely that there would be a thorough internal anti-war movement before 10 million U.S. troops were annihilated.
Compared to the United States, the future of a medium-sized country like Germany could be predicted. If Germany wanted to continue fighting, given its industrial strength, population, and land area, it could be completely crushed. Historically, Nazi Germany only surrendered after being completely crushed.
China did not have the capability to crush the United States, or rather, China could not bear the cost required to crush the United States. So, they could only continue fighting like this, seeking opportunities in each stage to force the United States into peace talks.
Therefore, Roosevelt did not expect that He Rui was currently very much looking forward to Roosevelt's personal death. Because once Roosevelt died, China would obtain a very good opportunity for peace talks with the United States. He Rui did not hate Roosevelt as a person, but he was currently considering how to utilize the opportunity if Roosevelt were to die. Thus, he was considering what kind of offensive should be manufactured against the United States at this stage to make preparations beforehand.