Chapter 104: Colony to Federation? (4)
Volume 7: World War II · Chapter 104
Faced with the question of whether to launch a nuclear strike, Li Runshi was also unable to answer immediately. After thinking for a while, Li Runshi realized that he did not reject the use of nuclear weapons, but simply could not calculate the timing for a nuclear strike.
Since he couldn't calculate it, Li Runshi asked He Rui, "Chairman, before you consider the timing of a nuclear strike to be right, will we have already invaded Europe?"
He Rui's thinking was exactly the same as Li Runshi's; he had completely accepted the inevitability of using nuclear weapons. Since there was no consideration of whether or not to use them, He Rui only cared about the timing of their use. Analyzing from American cultural traditions and the madness of Nazi Germany, a nuclear strike would not be sufficient to destroy the determination of these two countries to resist, and might even stimulate their resolve to fight to the death.
Although there was a view that the American bourgeoisie would calculate costs in detail and thus the US would not fight to the bitter end, He Rui did not see it that way. Before realizing that nuclear weapons could completely destroy American industry, the US would not refuse to fight to the end.
Take the Cuban Missile Crisis in history as an example. That conflict, which almost erupted into a full-scale nuclear war, ended with Khrushchev exposing his bottom line, so some people thought Khrushchev had chickened out and the Soviet Union had failed.
In reality, during that global nuclear crisis, the CPSU did indeed reveal its bottom line, which was an unwillingness to suffer massive population losses. The reason Khrushchev was later overthrown was not that he revealed the CPSU's bottom line, but that he knew the bottom line yet misjudged America's strategic determination, thus bringing humiliation upon himself. From this perspective, the CPSU's handling of things was very rough and repulsive. But their bottom line was much higher than America's.
There is a saying that the thought of the most innocent and weak children was enough to make then-US President Kennedy hesitate on the issue of starting a war. But in the concept of the military machine, casualties are just numbers. According to estimates at the time, if air strikes and an occupation were launched against Cuba, the US military would suffer 25,000 casualties; if war broke out, the Soviet missiles already deployed in Cuba alone were enough to kill 80 million American citizens.
But the American generals still wanted to fight. The generals had successfully abstracted these lives, separating the numbers from flesh and blood bodies. This is the special cruelty endowed upon generals by modern push-button warfare. Lives are just numbers that can be calculated back and forth in an office.
A scientist working for the US military recalled a defense discussion meeting. His recollection made me see particularly clearly the scene of the military decision-making circle digitizing human life: "Once, we redrafted an attack plan using slightly different settings, and found that the number of immediate deaths dropped from the original 36 million to 30 million. Everyone sat there nodding in agreement, saying: 'Great, that's really amazing, only 30 million dead.'
Suddenly, that scientist realized what they were saying and blurted out: 'Wait, I just suddenly realized what we are talking about... only 30 million dead. Only 30 million dead.' Silence immediately enveloped the room, and no one answered a word. They didn't even look at that scientist. And that scientist wrote later, 'The atmosphere was truly terrible. I felt like a woman. In the operating norms of the military machine, it is not permitted to discuss the reality of the blood behind the numbers. Otherwise, you will be seen as a woman, not a man, and you will also be fired. I think it is very likely that in the eyes of the military generals, President Kennedy was a woman.'"
This competitiveness is the true folk custom of America. Because they have never suffered disastrous losses, America's capacity to endure is extraordinarily strong. He Rui had always been unwilling to discuss this speculative process with his comrades, because He Rui believed that even if the Great Lakes were wiped flat, the United States would continue to fight.
He Rui quickly fished out another cigarette, lit it as if it were saving his life, and took a drag. Although considered a chain smoker, He Rui himself had no special feeling about smoking. As long as it was smoking and not drug use, there was only the difference between uncomfortable and more uncomfortable. Now He Rui just needed the stimulation brought by smoking. Since He Rui was bound to die working, he didn't care about the possibility of smoking himself to death.
"Chairman, I actually hope the American South can become the mantis that stalks the cicada. That way we can end the war!" Li Runshi's voice rang out.
He Rui felt his mood improve immediately. The joy of having a confidant in life immediately diluted the pain brought by thinking. He Rui stubbed out the cigarette he had just taken one drag of. "Comrade Runshi, tell me your views."
Li Runshi spoke slowly, "My views are not yet perfect. Since the war must continue, why don't we let the American upper class feel our intention to split the United States?"
He Rui heard the hesitation in Li Runshi's voice, because this kind of strategic thinking itself involved too many aspects. Even Li Runshi, as Vice Chairman of the Military Commission, did not have such authority.
He Rui liked this kind of strategic firmness very much, but still didn't quite dare to completely trust Li Runshi. So he probed, "Comrade Runshi, if we do this, there is another possibility, which is to discuss it with US President Roosevelt."
Li Runshi immediately expressed opposition. "Roosevelt did not start the war by his own power, so his personal opinion is no longer enough to make the decision to stop the war."
Only then did He Rui feel at ease with Li Runshi. There were very few leading cadres who could be firm in this view. In the upper echelons of the Civilization Party, including He Rui and Li Runshi, there were a total of four. They were He Rui, Li Runshi, Cheng Ruofan, and Hu Xiushan. Hu Xiushan's analysis was entirely from a military perspective. Cheng Ruofan's firm view stemmed from his idealistic sentiments, because Cheng Ruofan would instinctively classify the leaders of imperialist countries as heartless villains. This intense emotion was incorrect, and the analytical method was not scientific. However, the result was unexpectedly correct.
It is said that Kennedy happened to have read *The Guns of August* by Barbara Tuchman before the crisis. This history book recounting World War I made him highly vigilant against a war that no one wanted but everyone added fuel to until it muddledly broke out. There was such a story in that book: "At the outbreak of World War I, former German Chancellor Prince von Bülow said to his successor, 'How did this happen?'"
The answer was, "Ah, if only we knew."
Kennedy gained inspiration from the history book, which played a very important role in his proper handling of the crisis. He repeatedly talked about this book to decision-makers. During the crisis, he had hoped to immediately distribute this book to every naval officer on every ship, but he immediately thought, "They might not read it."
He Rui knew that the American elites of 1942 were actually very formidable. Besides professional ability, they also had a very high degree of culture. But the cultural level of this group was American level after all. China had thousands of years of history to draw lessons from, while America did not.
Thinking of this, He Rui asked, "Has Comrade Runshi read that report on the means America is currently using to mobilize the populace?"
Li Runshi answered decisively, "I have been paying attention to those reports. The more I read, the less I think the US will choose to compromise. The reports state very clearly that the US is currently using racism, white supremacy, religion, and other means to stimulate the willpower of the American people to join the army. In the view of the American upper class, these means can fulfill their conscription goals very well, but these means will cause the US to lose the room to withdraw from the war."
He Rui had the same feeling. Even if the American rednecks, who feared the government like a tiger and were submissive in every way, truly ignited their patriotism, they would dare to storm even the White House. When the American upper class used every means to incite the war enthusiasm of these rednecks, there was no hope that the rednecks would consider stopping the war themselves. He Rui expressed appreciation, "I agree with your view. Can you be responsible for the work of making the US realize that we are attempting to split the United States?"
"I... alright," Li Runshi answered. He actually wanted to focus his main attention on India, but the matter at hand was not difficult, just time-consuming. As long as arrangements were made properly, Li Runshi could still focus his attention on India.
He Rui also felt that India was very important, so he laughed, "Haha, don't worry, this matter is actually not that urgent. At this stage, we don't yet have channels to contact the southern US states."
Li Runshi also laughed, "I wonder what the literacy rate in the US is. If the US literacy rate is really as high as they claim, it would actually be easier for us to conduct propaganda directly to the US. We just need to drop leaflets on the US mainland after taking the Pacific."
After speaking, Li Runshi told He Rui about his meeting with Chandra Bose. At the time, Li Runshi was considering Chandra Bose's vision for the future India, and instead forgot the characteristics of Chandra Bose himself.
Thinking back on it afterwards, Chandra Bose's view on the Chinese side dismantling the Dum Dum Arsenal was entirely the view of an agricultural society.
In Li Runshi's view, the technology of the Dum Dum Arsenal was backward and its production efficiency was low. Maintaining this broken arsenal would only affect China's projects to provide new military industrial enterprises to the local government, so Li Runshi believed that from an economic perspective, completely dismantling the Dum Dum Arsenal was an economic issue. So after agreeing on the cooperation intention to build a new arsenal with the local government, he immediately ordered the dismantling of the Dum Dum Arsenal.
As an elite of an agricultural society, Chandra Bose instinctively believed that destroying an operational arsenal was a huge waste. Just like an old Chinese farmer seeing someone directly destroy furniture that was perfectly usable, he would sigh, "What a sin."
Industrial nations don't think this way. If the old doesn't go, the new won't come. Painting a brand new picture on a clean canvas is much easier than tinkering on an old painting.
After discussing this view with He Rui, Li Runshi spoke of his own view. "I originally thought the Chairman wanted to restore the traditional model of the Indian region to avoid India posing a security threat to us as a unified country. After the meeting with Chandra Bose, I think that revolutionaries like Chandra consider development based on what the British left behind, so I think the Chairman's view is correct. The Indian region can only truly burst with vitality if it is restored to the traditional model. An India that only thinks of maintaining an old model will inevitably bring immense suffering to the people."
He Rui nodded repeatedly. In history, Taizu said, "For ten days and ten nights I couldn't understand why India would mess with us." Actually, the reason is simple. India regarded itself as the heir to Britain; they didn't consider themselves a weak country. The worst part was that India inherited Britain's strategic concepts. It was only a matter of time before a war broke out between China and India; it was impossible for it not to break out.
Now Li Runshi clearly understood what a unified India would look like.