Cheng Ruofan spoke about military issues with composure. Li Runshi noticed that when Cheng Ruofan described the disadvantages China might face, there was a light in his eyes. Li Runshi looked forward to the professional ability behind Cheng Ruofan's sharp, knife-like gaze, an ability comparable to Paoding's dissection of an ox—skillful enough to find space where there is none.

Cheng Ruofan smiled and raised a question, "Chairman Li, at this stage, when we formulate plans, we have to consider a possibility: the possibility of a Soviet military invasion of Iran. At present, in order to fully take over the British legacy, the Congress Party has already helped hundreds of thousands of British home army troops in India move 600 kilometers towards the Iranian border. Although I can't figure out why Gandhi's so-called slogans of love and peace would lead to this... in my view, if the Congress Party forces hundreds of thousands of British home army troops to surrender to the Congress Party, and then gains benefits from Britain through a direct exchange of interests, I'm afraid the gains would be even greater than this..."

Li Runshi felt that Cheng Ruofan's judgments often became emotional when involving the actual execution of diplomacy and politics, so he interrupted, "I believe that Britain's handling of captured soldiers at the executive level will be exactly the same as Japan's. After the war between the Northeast Government and Japan, however Japan treated captured Japanese soldiers, Britain will treat British soldiers captured in India the same way. Purely from the perspective of interests, the Congress Party's method of dealing with British home soldiers stranded in India would actually allow the Congress Party to reap greater benefits right now."

"Hmm... that is indeed true," Cheng Ruofan replied after a moment of thought.

Li Runshi found that as long as the military content in the discussion increased, Cheng Ruofan's judgment and understanding improved. But for a comrade like Cheng Ruofan who knew where his shortcomings lay, this wasn't a flaw. Moreover, when Cheng Ruofan raised the possibility of a Soviet invasion of Iran, Li Runshi felt that Cheng Ruofan's strategic judgment was very sharp. Based on the materials Li Runshi had seen, there were indeed people within the CPSU who were restless, wanting to fulfill Russia's traditional political ambition: "to wash their military boots in the warm waters of the Indian Ocean."

At this stage, Britain certainly hoped for a deterioration in Sino-Soviet relations, or even a direct war. A Soviet occupation of Iran would stand in opposition to China's anti-aggression strategy, and China could not accept it. The British government could probably also judge that China would not accept a Soviet occupation of Iran.

Cheng Ruofan continued to explain at this time: "So we must first capture the island of Diego Garcia in the middle of the Indian Ocean to ensure our transport lines. After that, we will liberate those ports in the southern part of the Arabian Peninsula, as well as the colonies."

Li Runshi knew the location of this island. Diego Garcia is the largest and southernmost coral island of the Chagos Archipelago in the central Indian Ocean. Because of its location right in the center of the Indian Ocean, liberating it would allow control over the various shipping routes in the Indian Ocean.

Controlling Diego Garcia, plus the ports in the southern Arabian Peninsula, would be enough to sustain the subsequent war. Although Cheng Ruofan didn't say much about Iran, after controlling these areas, Iran would just be a peripheral region in the Indian Ocean strategy. No matter what happened in Iran, it would not affect the overall Indian Ocean strategy. However, if the Indian Ocean strategy used Iran as a springboard, the possibility of a Soviet invasion of Iran would pose a huge threat to the Indian Ocean strategy.

"According to various materials provided by the Ministry of Commerce's Institute of African Studies, the situation in Africa is completely different from that in Asia. In sub-Saharan Africa, Europe and America do not have more advantages than we do. My intuitive feeling is that perhaps a valuable campaign will break out in Ethiopia. In my intuition, that would be a campaign to help the Ethiopian people drive out the invading Italian army. I wonder what Chairman Li thinks?"

This question made Li Runshi feel pressure. Cheng Ruofan was indeed the kind of guy who appeared smarter the closer he got to military affairs and the further he got from politics. This question concerning the nature of the war was actually quite serious. Li Runshi replied: "If you suspect that Europe might change its policy in Africa because of the Singapore Conference, I think it's impossible. Given the European mode of thinking, even if Europe demands that Italy withdraw from Ethiopia, Ethiopia cannot help European countries in the Indian Ocean strategy. And demanding that Italy withdraw from Ethiopia would only consume European diplomatic resources for nothing.

"Even if Europe really considers the Ethiopian issue, they would hope that Italy holds out in Ethiopia and fights us. Since Italy is an important country in the Fascist alliance, Nazi Germany must support Italy, so that the forces of the Fascist bloc can be consumed in the region south of Egypt.

"Occupying Ethiopia is an important political achievement in Mussolini's own view; we cannot expect Mussolini to voluntarily withdraw from Ethiopia. And Nazi Germany will be very clear that investing forces in Ethiopia is meaningless, merely a pure consumption, and exploited by Britain and France. So there is a possibility that Nazi Germany will not only not support Italy, but will also demand Mussolini withdraw when Italy falls into a disadvantage.

"As for how the Western European group led by Britain and France will game this out with the Fascist group, we just have to wait and see. If the Anglo-French group and the Fascist group really reach cooperation, they should fight a fierce battle with our army in the Red Sea exit area, rather than waiting until our army attacks into Ethiopia to start discussing it."

Cheng Ruofan just nodded and didn't say much more. His judgment from a military perspective was the same: after the Indian region is liberated from British colonial rule, the fierce battles will unfold in the Red Sea region. The reason China controls the sea routes first lies in the fact that after cutting off the sea transport of European countries in the Indian Ocean, European countries will have to struggle on land.

Whether it is the Arabian Peninsula or the Middle East, the contradictions among European countries are very numerous, so numerous that Cheng Ruofan was sure he didn't have the ability to straighten it all out. As a strategist and politician, Li Runshi's explanation just now, although an impromptu answer, had already benefited Cheng Ruofan greatly, making him feel that several points he couldn't figure out before were finally resolved.

Having clarified the methodology for analyzing the Fascist bloc, Cheng Ruofan thought of the Soviet Union and couldn't help but want to ask about the negotiation results. But this violated discipline, so Cheng Ruofan held back. However, Li Runshi saw Cheng Ruofan's hesitation and sighed, "Have you guys analyzed the European situation over there?"

As long as he didn't ask about the recent negotiation results, Cheng Ruofan was happy to discuss the Soviet Union with Li Runshi. "In the analysis results, Germany's tolerance for security in the east is getting lower and lower. Neither Hitler nor Stalin believes that the other will truly abide by the Soviet-German Non-Aggression Pact. The validity period of this treaty is 10 years. We believe that if the validity period were set at 5 years, perhaps there would really be a chance to last until the end of the term.

"In terms of the Soviet Union's development speed, this non-aggression pact is extremely beneficial to the Soviet Union. Moreover, the Soviet Union has not signed a new treaty with Germany that takes into account the security needs of both sides up to now. From a military perspective, the current situation is very prone to inducing military conflict."

Li Runshi was more willing to listen to the views of high-ranking generals like Cheng Ruofan in the military field, and since Cheng Ruofan was not a general who only considered military affairs, Li Runshi found it easier to communicate with him.

Hearing Cheng Ruofan's evaluation of the Soviet Union's status quo, Li Runshi asked, "Is Germany choosing to go to war with the Soviet Union out of consideration for eastern security rather than with the idea of occupying the western regions of the Soviet Union?"

"From a military perspective, Germany has no way to truly annex western Soviet Union. Different ethnicities, different languages, different scripts. Germany can win many battles in the western Soviet Union through the advantage of military technology, but it doesn't have the resources to annex the western Soviet Union. From a military perspective, Germany's strategy is to defeat the massive number of Soviet Red Army troops, temporarily occupy Leningrad, Moscow, and the Baku oil fields. Drive the Soviet government east of the Ural Mountains. Then use the time difference to establish a series of nation-states in the western Soviet Union. As a buffer zone between Germany and the Soviet Union.

"There is a huge chain crisis in this plan. If the Soviet Union loses Ukraine after being defeated, the Soviet Union might request China to support the Soviet Union. Then the German army must complete the occupation of the western Soviet Union before the Chinese army arrives in the western Soviet Union region. This undoubtedly increases the difficulty for Germany to formulate this military plan.

"But Germany cannot accept the Soviet Union initiating an attack. Once the Soviet Union attacks, Germany's East Prussia will be the first target to be attacked, followed by Warsaw, and then the German capital, Berlin. The Soviet Union cannot play small skirmishes with Germany; once they make a move, it will be a full-scale strike. With tens of thousands of tanks coordinated with tens of thousands of fighter planes pushing west all the way, it would be difficult for Germany to organize a very effective defense line on the East European Plain.

"If both the Soviet and German sides launch offensives against each other on the East European Plain, Germany needs 5 million troops to maintain the front line. After the peace between Britain and Germany, Germany has actually already completed a round of large-scale demobilization. The reason Germany's combat power still looks strong is not because the number of German troops has increased, but because the current 2 million German Wehrmacht troops have completed a round of re-equipment. This batch of troops is Germany's core elite, said to be entirely armored and motorized units.

"After these 2 million German troops are used up, the remaining German troops can only use rifles and mortars to confront the Soviet steel torrent. The Soviet Union doesn't need to take the entire Germany; after wiping out Germany's core elite, they can maintain the western front line at the Elbe River. Then they can sweep south, occupying Eastern and Central Europe.

"At this time, the United States is fighting fiercely with our country in the Pacific. After Britain loses India and the Middle East, it returns to Africa preparing to accept our army's attack. Eastern Europe happens to have no intervention from powerful countries; it is a very favorable timing for the Soviet Union."

Hearing Cheng Ruofan describe the war landscape in a calm tone, Li Runshi couldn't help but ask, "What time unit is such a military plan planned in?"

"Looking at European tradition, when formulating the first phase objective, it's probably in units of days. The next phase after completing the first phase objective is relatively freer," Cheng Ruofan answered very calmly. As a military strategist, formulating such operational plans was one of the basic professional capabilities.

"Moreover, when I consider these things, I have largely substituted in our army's combat style. European war plans themselves are much more rigid than ours. The reason I do this is that Germany uses mission-type tactics (Auftragstaktik), where every commander who receives an order has a high degree of freedom in combat. In Europe, the German army's command level and combat ability are top-tier. The level of the Soviet Red Army is difficult to evaluate."

Li Runshi was very interested in this and pursued, "What if it were our army fighting?"

Cheng Ruofan's tone held a bit of pride, "Our army is currently already in an air-ground integrated combat mode and has strong capabilities in strategic air force. If the Soviet army were replaced by our army in situ, from the start of the war, the entire Germany would not have a so-called rear area. After Germany's bit of tactical air force is exhausted by our army, all of Germany's industrial centers, warehousing, transportation hubs, and port terminals will be thoroughly bombed. Germany's supplies will cease to exist, and its combat will present a situation of stock consumption.

"After the German regular army is exhausted, when our army enters Germany to fight, we will face militia-level troops lacking heavy weapons. After the German militia-level troops are exhausted and their transport vehicles are mostly destroyed, what remains of Germany will only be various small-scale guerrilla units in cities and rural areas. Fighting to this extent, troops from Korea, Vietnam, and Upper Burma could all smoothly complete the military task of clearing the countryside."

"Comrade Ruofan, do you personally think Germany needs to actively attack the Soviet Union?" Li Runshi asked the core question, because this question was very closely related to some major moves by the Soviet Union. And although He Rui was extremely ruthless and thorough when it was time to act, He Rui would never act rashly.

Dissolving the Third International was a huge loss of strength for the Soviet Union; it was absolutely impossible for the Soviet Union to use the dissolution of the Third International as an exchange just because China allowed Communist parties in the Asian region to be legal. If the Soviet Union agreed, it must be because of a more realistic threat.

Cheng Ruofan didn't think for long. He answered in a gentle tone, "Under a completely irresponsible speculation, I personally think Germany should remove the threat in the east through war. Of course, having been by the Chairman's side for so long, I think there should be a possibility of a political solution. But at most one year, if the two countries, the Soviet Union and Germany, fail to resolve the strategic security issue through political means, the possibility of Germany actively attacking becomes very large."

Li Runshi nodded. Although this conclusion was viewed from a military perspective, it really had its internal methodology. When Cheng Ruofan didn't consider politics, his answer actually had a kind of high political level.