Chapter 786: Intermission Talks (14)
Volume 7: World War II · Chapter 87
Reichenau did not know that his investigative report would be personally reviewed by Zhao Tianlin, let alone receive such high praise from him. In the realm of scholarship, there is a certain universality—it all comes down to the integrity of internal logic. Although different professions are like different worlds, Reichenau, as a military expert, inadvertently displayed rigorous internal logic when he wrote down his observations rather than just personal opinions.
The core of this Grand Trial was not for a group of legal experts to define the world using so-called legal spirit, but to let experts from various countries discuss colonialism, imperialism, racism, and monopoly privileges in economics. The Chinese side hoped to bring these elites together in a relatively relaxed environment to reach some basic consensus.
Of course, some of these elites were undoubtedly obstinate. For this lot, the only option was to wait for them to undergo the baptism of war. Since these people wanted to be martyrs for colonialism, imperialism, and racism, their wish would be granted.
But their presence in the discussions could also serve as a good supplement to the concepts of this Grand Trial. And Reichenau belonged to that category of people who were very capable and thought highly of themselves, yet had significant limitations.
Zhao Tianlin thought for a long time but couldn't make up his mind to recommend Reichenau. He simply placed Reichenau's report in the category to be jointly reviewed by other panel members.
The first stage of review took five days. For the busy Zhao, these five days flew by. For Reichenau and the German officers, these five days spent on observation and analysis were also very fulfilling. It was just that Reichenau had been very concerned about the development of the Battle of Midway, but no new news had come through.
Meanwhile, on Midway Island, the defending Japanese forces and the counter-attacking US forces were in a living hell of war. Yamaguchi Tamon had made up his mind to fight a dignified battle between great powers against the United States. The US Pacific Command, including Nimitz, had to accept the challenge in order to have a chance to inflict heavy damage on the Japanese Combined Fleet.
During the day, fighter planes from both sides crisscrossed the sky over Midway. Every few minutes, a fighter was shot down. Neither the US nor the Japanese forces gained a clear advantage. The sky over Midway was like a millstone, grinding down the forces thrown into it by both sides.
However, the entire process was not monotonous. Both the US and Japan constantly adopted brand-new tactics. Sometimes the US forces had the upper hand, sometimes the Japanese won more. The fierce battles were rarely repetitive. But no matter how hard the officers and men on both sides tried, the nature of the war of attrition did not change.
On Midway, the core of this war millstone, the Japanese forces were constantly replenishing troops and equipment over the five days. Just the air and sea search radars alone had seen 31 units damaged. To destroy the Japanese radar stations on Midway, the US military adopted various methods, especially using aluminum foil interference, to the point that the seabed near Midway was covered with a layer of aluminum foil.
Even with such cost-no-object attacks, the US lost over 100 ground-attack aircraft just to destroy the radar stations, and over 400 fighter jets were shot down trying to destroy Midway's air defenses. Many Japanese anti-aircraft positions were destroyed by dying US pilots crashing their fighters into them.
Adding the losses from attacking Midway to the fighters shot down in air combat, the US military lost over 2,000 aircraft of various types.
The Japanese losses were also huge, with 1,500 fighters shot down or damaged. The losses of pilots and the army defenders on the island also exceeded 2,000.
Both the Japanese Combined Fleet and the US Pacific Fleet were enduring this war of attrition. Even though their hearts felt like they were being roasted over a fire, neither side rashly launched a carrier battle, nor did they send battleship-centric bombardment fleets to engage near Midway. An all-out attack must be launched when a fleeting opportunity appears; the US and Japanese forces clearly saw no need to choose a decisive action due to such a war of attrition.
At this time in Tokyo, Japanese Minister of Defense Nagumo Chūichi had an extremely gloomy expression. Facing any Japanese officers who came to ask him for permission to launch an all-out attack, Nagumo Chūichi offered no opinion. At most, if the other party had enough influence, he would say one sentence, "I know!"
As a scholar-type general, at least half of General Nagumo Chūichi's expression was deliberately maintained. In his heart, Nagumo actually agreed with Yamaguchi Tamon's decision. Japan's national strength had developed well in recent years, but it still did not have the capital to fight an all-out war with the United States.
At this stage, even if the United States lost all 24 aircraft carriers and 28 battleships it currently had, it could still build twice the number of lost carriers and battleships within two years.
This is the depth of a powerful industrial nation. If the Asian Alliance wants to win, it must not only destroy the super-large fleet centered on hundreds of aircraft carriers and battleships that the United States can produce, but also cross the vast Pacific Ocean and launch an attack on the US mainland.
Leaving aside the consumption of maintaining such a long supply line, even if the Asian Alliance forces could land in North America and occupy a landing point, there are still over 9 million square kilometers of the US mainland to conquer. With America's industrial capacity, it could easily arm a force of 40 million; every adult American man and woman would fight as an enemy against the Asian Alliance forces.
Compared to the United States, America's margin for error is almost infinite. Compared to the United States, Japan has no capital to make any mistakes. If the Japanese Combined Fleet suffers heavy damage, even if China can help Japan build warships, Japan would need to spend at least three years to restore its navy. During these three years, the Japanese Navy would basically withdraw from the war and could only look on.
The war of attrition Yamaguchi is currently adopting can ensure that Japan can continue fighting. Japan has over two thousand elite carrier-based pilots, over 20,000 land-based fighter pilots, and nearly 100,000 pilots undergoing air force training. Japan can hold on even if such a war of attrition lasts for a year.
Yamaguchi Tamon knew that China was desperately seizing islands in the South Pacific. Nagumo Chūichi also knew, and perhaps even more timely than Yamaguchi. For example, at this stage, the Chinese Air Force and Navy were fighting fiercely alongside the British and American forces of the Allied Powers in the Solomon Islands. The daily losses of the three countries—China, the US, and Britain—were much greater than those in the Battle of Midway.
Midway is just a small island, while the islands in the Solomon Islands are large. Battles were taking place not only in the air and at sea, but the armies of both sides were also engaged in tragic combat. Whether day or night, the armies of both sides were fighting to the death. Every minute there were military casualties.
What Nagumo Chūichi could do now was to help Yamaguchi Tamon drag it out, drag it out until the moment when a huge change occurred in the war situation.
Just as one group of officers left, another group came to request an audience. Nagumo stared gloomily at this incoming group, making the officers immediately much more cautious. Listening to words that could callous his ears, Nagumo stood up with feigned depth, and the officers opposite immediately stopped speaking.
Nagumo looked gloomy and signaled for them to continue, while he walked to the window with his hands behind his back. This group of officers looked at Nagumo's majestic back, guessing in their hearts to what extent their words had moved Nagumo. But Nagumo was turning a deaf ear to their words at this moment; he stood up because he had been sitting for too long and was uncomfortable. To make himself more relaxed, Nagumo even started doing simple arithmetic problems in his head.
According to current battle reports, the US military is losing 400 fighter jets every day. Based on this number, it would take about 250 days to exhaust all 100,000 US pilots. That is to say, in at most another 8 months, the Battle of Midway will have a result no matter what.
Of course, this calculation is a completely extreme scenario. Adding the consumption in the Solomon Islands, at the current rate of consumption, the United States can fight for at most another 4 months before it has to consider whether to continue the Pacific War...
Using elementary school arithmetic to judge war seems like child's play, but strategic judgment itself does not require complex mathematical formulas. The more complex the formula, the more it is aimed at the tactical level.
US President Roosevelt was currently using only elementary school arithmetic to calculate how big of a problem he had encountered. Before the war, the United States did indeed draft and train 100,000 fighter pilots, and so far over 10,000 have been lost. Moreover, these 10,000 pilots belonged to the category of pilots capable of operating at sea, which requires higher technical skills. Due to the characteristics of the Pacific theater, once these pilots failed to fly back, they were basically considered lost. The authenticity of this number is very high.
According to the report data submitted to President Roosevelt, the number of pilots the United States can continue to consume is less than 30,000. At the current rate of consumption, the United States can fight for another 4 months under full-scale confrontation. The number of pilots that can be replenished in 4 months is roughly 6,000 to 8,000. It can support another month.
This is war. Americans do not lack planes, nor do they lack population, but they lack pilots who can be used immediately.
Roosevelt could let the US military pause fighting and prepare with all its might; in half a year, the United States might have 100,000 naval aviators. But within the half-year of stopped fighting, all islands in the Pacific would be occupied by China. The US military would have to pay a huge price to retake these islands one by one.
Facing such a situation, Roosevelt was not exasperated, nor even angry. He finished reading the report and began to seriously consider two questions. The first question was how to let the US military fight as long as possible to buy more time for the United States. If the US military could fight for a year, the United States could recover from the unfavorable situation.
As for how to achieve this goal, several methods flashed through Roosevelt's mind. Changing generals, promoting outstanding generals, and making China endure huge pressure in other operational directions.
Roosevelt thought for a while but couldn't figure out which method he was confident in. The thing Roosevelt was most confident in right now was letting the current US military system continue to function.
Having finished thinking about the first question, Roosevelt began to consider the second question, which was solving the war through political means.
Many American experts went to Singapore this time to participate in the Grand Trial. This was a very good diplomatic environment. But Chinese officials had not contacted experts from various countries at this stage. Some American experts did try to communicate with Chinese experts and indeed discussed a lot of things. However, the Chinese experts all stated that they had no communication channels with the Chinese decision-making layer.
Although Roosevelt felt that the He Rui administration wanted to make full use of this Grand Trial against colonialism, Roosevelt had to suspect that the direction of He Rui's utilization was to mislead the United States into thinking that China would negotiate with the United States.
As the president of the imperialist country of the United States, Roosevelt was very clear about the ways of imperialism. The Chinese government led by He Rui would definitely use all its current advantages to the limit to extract maximum benefits. This is the essence of imperialism. In Roosevelt's view, He Rui had been full of imperialist elite style for the past nearly 30 years. Every policy played international politics clearly and thoroughly.
Including this time, He Rui actually used "overthrowing the four big mountains" as the reason for launching this war. Anti-colonialism, anti-imperialism, anti-racism, and anti-bureaucratic capitalism indeed met the needs of the majority of the people in this world. But once He Rui could really realize his vision, China would act as the next world hegemon, extracting countless benefits from the globe.
The British Empire could be the world hegemon for a century; with China's volume and industrial level, once it sat on the throne of world hegemon, it could sit firmly for at least a century. During the century when Britain dominated the world, the United States suffered various oppressions and blows. In the next century ruled by China, the United States obviously would have no chance.
While thinking about this issue, Secretary of State Hull and Army Chief of Staff Marshall came to see Roosevelt together. Army Chief of Staff Marshall handed a document to Roosevelt. Roosevelt flipped through it; it was a plan regarding the complete US control of Canada.
The United States had always had a plan to turn Canada into a US vassal, and had tried once in 1814. The result of that execution was a sound beating by British troops and Canadian militia, followed by a counterattack on Washington, causing US President Madison to flee in panic. The British troops and Canadian militia burned the presidential residence of that time. Later, the British troops retreated, and the US government returned to Washington. To eliminate the scorched black marks on the presidential residence as soon as possible, they painted the US residence with white lime.
This emergency measure inadvertently made the presidential residence look very good. From then on, the US presidential residence adopted white paint. Thus came the name "White House."
Although the United States behaved itself at that time, the plan to annex Canada was never laid down, and many versions had been updated over the past hundred years. At this stage, Canada, as Britain's most staunch colony, had no intention of being controlled by the United States. But for the United States, Britain, having lost India, urgently needed US support, which created a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for the United States to completely control Canada.
Army Chief of Staff Marshall's plan was a plan for military control of Canada. For the current United States, it couldn't beat China with a population of 670 million, but beating a Canada with a population of a few million was a sure thing. Even though Canada was very wary of the United States and had made war preparations, the number of troops mobilized by the United States was almost twice the population of Canada, so Marshall was very calm when making the report.
After Marshall finished speaking about the war part, Secretary of State Hull recounted the part about political solution. From a political perspective, the best way for the United States was to let Canada become completely independent, and then the United States would control Canada economically. Therefore, what the United States was most dissatisfied with regarding Canada right now was that these colonial fellows still firmly chose Britain up to now.
So Hull formulated a roadmap for the United States to completely control Canada. At this stage, Canada was already a member of the British Commonwealth, so first let Britain allow Canada to gain complete independence, and then through political maneuvering, let Canada domestically request independence. Once Canada was independent, the United States would sign a series of economic cooperation agreements with Canada, thereby controlling the Canadian economy.
The United States had done this many times in South America according to this roadmap. As long as the economic agreements were signed, the United States was completely confident in turning Canada into a US vassal. In this way, the United States would not have to worry about political repercussions at all.
Roosevelt listened to their reports, calculating the timing of the action in his heart. Originally, Roosevelt thought that China's strength would at most cause trouble for the United States in the Western Pacific, while the United States could use the war to weaken Britain's power, thereby taking over slowly. But he didn't expect the Asian Alliance forces to be so fierce; Britain's colonies in the Pacific were swept away. The United States not only lost the Philippines, but even Hawaii was attacked.
Canada, which could have been taken over slowly, now became urgent. If the United States had to accept China's peace conditions, the United States must completely control Canada.
After all, both the United States and Canada are descendants of Anglo-Saxons, and they are very clear about the nature of Anglo-Saxons. Don't look at how Canada seems incredibly loyal to Britain and full of hatred towards China now. Once China becomes the next world hegemon, Canada, for its own security, will not hesitate to choose to establish a relatively close relationship with China.
And China, as an extra-regional country, would definitely be happy to use Canada to contain the United States. Moreover, the United States' neighbors include not only Canada in the north but also Mexico in the south. Mexico's attitude towards the United States cannot be described as friendly. China could easily use Canada and Mexico to pincer the United States from north and south, making the United States endure terrible geopolitical pressure.
Mexico has a population of tens of millions; the United States really can't do anything about Mexico. Even if it occupied the whole of Mexico, it would have to withdraw in the end. If it could swallow Canada at this stage, leaving only Mexico in the south, it would be much easier to deal with.
So Roosevelt asked Marshall, "General Marshall, in your plan, how long will it take to end the military operations in Canada?"
Marshall answered calmly, "About six months."
Roosevelt had thought Marshall would think Canada could be solved in three months, because many previous military plans against Canada believed that Canada could be destroyed within three months.
As Army Chief of Staff, how could Marshall not know Roosevelt's thoughts? But Marshall did not compromise just because of Roosevelt's mood. In fact, Marshall himself was skeptical about the possibility of solving Canada in six months. If it were defeating the Canadian regular army, let alone three months, one month would almost be enough. After all, Canada's core area is just a line of more than 200 kilometers bordering the northern United States.
Canada is a neighbor that has existed with the United States for nearly 200 years. Canadians do not consider themselves Americans, and the United States does not consider Canadians to be Americans. Although both are descendants of Anglo-Saxons, there is a separation in national identity. Even though Canada has only a few million people, it is not easy to completely annex a nation-state of a few million people.
Seeing that Marshall did not answer further, Roosevelt did not force Marshall to promise anything. Because Roosevelt was now basically certain that his future reputation would not be very good, but this did not make Roosevelt smash the pot. On the contrary, Roosevelt put aside concerns about himself and wanted to do something for the United States even more. Annexing Canada was the policy Roosevelt formulated for the current situation.
"Hull, after this Singapore conference ends, you will start executing it," Roosevelt ordered.
Secretary of State Hull stood up and agreed. He wanted to say something more, but Roosevelt said, "I'm tired, let me rest for a while."
Hearing this, Hull had to get up and take his leave with Marshall.
After the two left, Roosevelt turned the wheels of his wheelchair and stopped in front of the French window. Looking at the last bit of residual snow that had basically melted outside, Roosevelt suddenly felt it was very comical. If China won and became the hegemon of the new era, Roosevelt's own evaluation would actually be much better. After all, it's not like the United States hasn't lost to a world hegemon before.
The most unfavorable situation for Roosevelt would be if the United States held on at this stage, engaged in a brutal slaughter with China, and the United States only lost the war after millions of Americans died. Roosevelt would inevitably be nailed to the pillar of shame in American history and spurned by future generations!
If it were for himself, Roosevelt's choice would become very strange.