文明破晓 (English Translation)

— "This world needs a more advanced form of civilization"

Chapter 133: The Munich Conference (1)

Volume 6: Great Depression Era · Chapter 133

Before stepping into the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs building, US Ambassador to China John Leighton Stuart couldn't help but pause for a moment.

In the past, as the president of Yenching University, Stuart had always adopted the condescending attitude of a scholar towards incompetent officials when dealing with the Beiyang Government. Now, Yenching University had long since closed its doors, and Stuart was facing officials of the He Rui administration. Although these officials acknowledged that the United States was a powerful country, they viewed it as *just* a powerful country—nothing more.

All the advantages Stuart once possessed had vanished. He now had to face the He Rui government's cold, ruthless, and highly qualified diplomatic personnel. Stuart felt like a sheep going to negotiate with hungry wolves—helpless and resigned. As a state civil servant, Stuart knew he couldn't stop moving forward; he could only enter this "devil's den" of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, filled as it was with impassive officials.

Having seen diplomats from all the Great Powers of the world, Chinese Foreign Minister Li Shiguang did not take Stuart particularly seriously. The United States of the present had to communicate with China on the basis of strength; even if the US President himself came, he would have to follow the rules. However, precisely because Stuart had some friends in Chinese academic circles, Li Shiguang felt it would be inappropriate to deploy petty diplomatic tricks against him.

Stuart had come this time to convey the attitude of the US government. The US government had already summoned the Chinese Ambassador to the US to express its dissatisfaction with the "Naval Act of 1938" just passed by the Chinese National Assembly. The Chinese Naval Act of 1938 stipulated that in the next three years, China would build 16 battleships and 24 aircraft carriers.

The US government had not only summoned the Chinese Ambassador but also the Japanese Ambassador to the US, expressing dissatisfaction with the Japanese Naval Act passed by the Japanese Diet. The Japanese Naval Act stipulated that Japan would build 8 battleships and 4 aircraft carriers to replace all of Japan's current obsolete warships.

Everyone with eyes could see the reality. The East Asian Economic Cooperation Organization had already adopted a customs union policy. Even if East Asia could not be viewed as a single country, they were at least firm allies. The tonnage of capital ships possessed by the East Asian Alliance was already on par with that of the United States, and this was the source of American dissatisfaction.

Based on the foundation of strength, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not care in the slightest whether the United States was happy or not. After listening to Stuart convey the American attitude, Foreign Minister Li Shiguang replied, "In view of the number and tonnage of warship construction stipulated in the 'Two-Ocean Navy Act' recently passed by the US government, China has decided to build a fleet to ensure the balance of the Pacific. This is the attitude of the Chinese government."

Stuart was an undergraduate holder at the very least and knew the basic rules of Great Power diplomacy. Since he could not make a breakthrough from the official standpoint, he tried to express unease from a personal perspective. But before Stuart could initiate such an emotional exchange, Li Shiguang clearly asked him, "Ambassador Stuart, does what you are saying represent the view of the US government?"

This was actually very polite. With Stuart's level of competence, Li Shiguang could have played him to death with a few minor tricks. But Li Shiguang and the people at the Chinese Foreign Ministry chose not to do so, relying instead on these polite measures to protect Stuart. After all, the American upper echelon actually believed the Chinese government thought Stuart was truly beneficial for drawing the feelings of the Chinese and American people closer. Since the American leadership believed it, China had to express belief in it as well.

Stuart replied helplessly, "President Roosevelt hopes to send a special envoy."

"Chairman He is very busy and cannot schedule time recently," Li Shiguang replied sincerely.

Faced with these cold, intelligent Chinese officials, Stuart was truly at his wits' end. He could only define himself as a messenger, and as someone who could participate in various Chinese civil activities relying on his past connections. Stuart did not know that for a diplomat to achieve even this level was already quite remarkable.

The Chinese officials, whom Stuart considered cold and clever, were not lying; He Rui had indeed been very busy recently. For instance, He Rui was currently meeting with a French special envoy. The French envoy directly showed He Rui the records of recent meetings with the Soviet Union and Britain.

Given that Germany was practically preparing to resolve the Sudetenland issue, French diplomatic personnel had met with Molotov and asked in the name of the French government, "If Germany invades Czechoslovakia, what does the Soviet Union intend to do?"

Soviet Foreign Minister Molotov immediately stated, "We will fulfill the obligations stipulated in the *Franco-Soviet Treaty of Mutual Assistance*. If Romania and Hungary can remain neutral, we can persuade the Romanian government to allow Soviet troops and aid to pass through Romanian territory to reach Czechoslovakia."

After reading this, He Rui didn't know how to evaluate it and could only say in his heart, *This is truly diplomacy full of Russian flavor.*

Looking at the meeting records between France and Britain, the French representative had already given the British side the record of the meeting between France and the Soviet Union before their meeting, so the French side asked very frankly, "France opposes Germany's annexation of the Sudetenland region. If this triggers a war, how does Britain view it?"

Britain used three paragraphs of extremely exquisite diplomatic rhetoric to answer. The inner meaning of the first paragraph was that Britain did not believe war would break out. The inner meaning of the second paragraph was that Britain currently only wanted to ensure that Britain would not be dragged into a war. The third paragraph was relatively clear, meaning that if France encountered an attack, Britain would provide aid.

The French representative seized upon the third paragraph and asked what kind of help Britain could provide. The British side stated that within half a year, they would send two divisions to France and provide France with 150 airplanes.

He Rui was long accustomed to this British style of diplomacy. It was already July 8th, and Czechoslovakia had already utilized its terrain to build defense lines and mobilized 21 divisions to man them. As the world's eighth-largest industrial power, Czechoslovakia possessed a military industry ranked second in Europe. The price Britain offered was sending two divisions and 150 planes within half a year, telling France not to go to war. This was Britain's current diplomatic style. For a once-great tycoon to fall to such a state was truly pathetic and laughable.

Since he couldn't roast them out loud, He Rui put down the two diplomatic documents without saying a word. The French envoy immediately said, "If Czechoslovakia is invaded by Germany, what will the Chinese government do?"

"The Chinese government will immediately condemn Germany's act of aggression. We will ask the Czechoslovak government what kind of aid they need and do our utmost to meet the reasonable demands of the Czechoslovak government. If the Czechoslovak government actively requests our help, we will meet the Czechoslovak government's needs within the scope of our capabilities."

The prediction made by the French envoy before coming to China was about the same as what He Rui was saying now. The envoy hurriedly prepared for the next question: "What if Germany launches a military attack on France?"

"As long as the French government makes a request, the Chinese government will provide support."

Hearing such a clear answer, the French envoy's eyes lit up. "May I ask if the Chinese government will take the initiative to attack Germany?"

He Rui felt that the French government was also desperate, giving off the scent of a patient turning to any doctor in an emergency. But this could not be said. He Rui replied, "The Chinese government opposes the Nazi German government's racist ideology and acts of racial oppression. However, these actions do not constitute grounds for the Chinese government to declare war on the German government."

The French envoy had received the reply he wanted and took his leave. He Rui was indeed very busy; as soon as the French envoy left, He Rui immediately went back to reading the report that had been interrupted by the envoy's arrival: *Report on the Situation of International Students from Various Colonies in China*.

It was now 1938, and China had become the number one trading partner for many countries in the world, with the scale of trade expanding everywhere. Naturally, the number of students from colonies around the world coming to study in China also increased rapidly. Apart from the colonies bordering China, the colonial students who could cross the ocean to study in China were not poor.

In addition to providing these students with good education and training, the Chinese government had also established several research institutions. For example, the Indochina Research Center, the South Pacific Islands Commerce Center, the Southeast Asian Archipelago Business Cooperation Center, the Indian Ocean Rim Region Research Center...

The actual direct leadership department of these research institutions was the General Staff. The General Staff's purpose in establishing these institutions was naturally for war. So far, the most successful institution was the Vietnam Research Center. China had basically determined that after liberating Vietnam, it would be divided into four independent nation-states based on ethnicity: Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, and Cochinchina.

The next most successful were Lower Burma, Bengal, and the Dravidian regions of the southern Indian subcontinent. These regions all had large numbers of youth studying in China. Because of their large numbers, they had already attracted the attention of the British Indian government. A passage in the investigation report caught He Rui's attention: "...It was the Indian National Congress that reported them to the British Viceroy. This political party is very focused on striking down revolutionary forces within India..."

He Rui had his own views on the Indian National Congress. After finishing the report, He Rui picked up the *Report on China's Mineral Surveys*.

"...In 1937, our country's steel production reached 44.86 million tons. If the ore trade between China and the Soviet Union pauses and we rely solely on domestic ore, China's steel production can reach about 64 million tons. Adding ore provided by Korea, China's steel production can reach 76 million tons. The East Asian Economic Cooperation Organization's steel production can reach 89 million tons. It is estimated that China's civilian steel demand at that time will reach 69 million tons..."

The next report, *China's Mobilization Projections*, deduced with detailed data that due to China's rapid industrialization, a large population had entered the industrial production sector, leading to a birth rate far lower than predicted in 1935. It was estimated that by 1940, China's population would be approximately 670 million, rather than the projected 750 million.

The combat strength China would mobilize in war was approximately 15 million, accounting for 2.2% of China's total population. China had no reason for total mobilization, or even a reason to mobilize at all. To meet war demands, China's industrial output would increase significantly, and war funding sources could be solved through tax increases.

Due to tax increases, the quota for national public expenditure would shrink. However, because a large number of new industrial jobs would appear during the war—based on current statistics showing a general decline in fertility rates after farmers enter industrial production—even if national public expenditure was not reduced, the efficiency of public expenditure usage would rise rapidly as a large educated population entered working age and provided tax revenue through their labor.

This report was spearheaded by Li Runshi. Because it was supported by ample data, the content was extremely detailed and its reliability very high.

The next report came from the Ministry of Commerce. France had basically determined that war would break out. In order to upgrade its armaments level to achieve the goal of defeating Germany more easily, France had begun to completely phase out old equipment and replace it with new. Since the equipment in French factories had been fully utilized during the export boom to China over the past ten years, it was also time for replacement, leading to a climax of equipment renewal in France. With the rise of machinery manufacturing stocks, the already high French stock market was pushed to a new height.

The rise in the French stock market was nothing compared to Britain and the United States. After the passage of the US "Two-Ocean Navy Act," the US stock market, which had fallen 40% from its high point in early 1937, rebounded by 20%.

The largest increase, however, was in Britain. Because the British government's military expenditure in 1938 reached 2 billion pounds, and Britain, as a great colonial power, had vast colonial markets, it could earn excess profits even using equipment that was not advanced. These backward technical facilities could not meet Britain's military industry demands, so the Chamberlain government invested 4 billion pounds in 1938 to conduct a technological upgrade of Britain's mines and factories. Any factory willing to purchase new equipment and adopt new technologies could receive government orders; those unwilling to invest in transformation were left to fend for themselves.

Under government policy, most vital British factories chose to adopt new equipment and use new technologies. Britain's population was only 40 million. 6 billion pounds was equivalent to 24 billion US dollars. Smashing down 24 billion dollars meant an average of 600 dollars per person for the 40 million British people. Even if most of this money still went into the pockets of the upper class and capitalists, and the improvement in the lives of ordinary British people was very limited, the British stock market soared upwards like a roller coaster, causing the assets of the propertied classes to skyrocket.

If one only looked at the data without knowing the cause, seeing the stock market rise and unemployment fall, one would definitely think 1938 was a good year. But that shot of chicken blood causing the current result was named "War."

If one only looked at economic data, one would also think 1940 was a good year, because in that year, all industrial countries globally achieved full employment! Due to labor shortages, there was even a situation of massive female employment.

He Rui's work was just this busy; he had to read a massive number of documents and formulate policy directions based on current reality. Time quickly reached August 3rd. Britain and France decided to convene an international conference regarding the Sudetenland region. Out of respect for the Great Powers, Britain and France, as if scattering hero invitations, submitted notifications to China and the United States, two countries outside the region, inviting them to attend the conference.

When Foreign Minister Li Shiguang brought this news, he also brought another piece of information. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs had asked the Soviet Union if they had received a formal invitation. The Soviet government explicitly stated that they had not received a formal invitation.

He Rui invited Li Runshi over. "Minister Li, let Chairman Li be the Chinese representative this time."

Li Runshi immediately replied, "I don't think that's very suitable. I'm also not good at doing this kind of work."

"We have to show our face, and this conference needs Chairman Li's logical thinking. Sacrificing Czechoslovakia's interests is to release war. As a peace-loving country, China can absolutely not accept such a thing happening," He Rui said categorically.

Both Li Shiguang and Li Runshi fell silent for a moment. They felt He Rui was speaking his heart, but also knew He Rui was overacting a bit. Finally, Li Runshi had to speak up, "Chairman, I am not very suitable for this kind of work."

He Rui shook his head. "You don't need to worry about your emotional issues. As long as you go and listen to the bullshit the imperialists say, you won't be able to help getting angry."

Li Shiguang felt He Rui's words sounded a bit unconscionable. The stony hearts displayed by Foreign Ministry personnel were often to maximize national interests, not because Foreign Ministry personnel were born heartless.

As if hearing Li Shiguang's inner thoughts, He Rui turned to him. "Not letting Foreign Ministry personnel appear this time is because we want to express the degree of importance we attach to this conference. Moreover, the reaction of the Foreign Ministry would be understood by all countries as a diplomatic act, to seek greater benefits, rather than truly out of our country's philosophy."

Hearing this, Foreign Minister Li Shiguang felt much better. He Rui turned to Li Runshi again. "Since Britain and France have sent the hero invitations, very well, we will attend. Furthermore, we suggest holding this conference in China."

Li Runshi was somewhat puzzled. "I feel Britain and France have likely decided to compromise with Germany. They have probably guessed our country's stance and likely won't accept meeting in China."

He Rui smiled. "For such a major matter, I think we should formally tell Japan."

In a moment, Li Shiguang had already figured out the roadmap. "Chairman, I will arrange it. What if Britain and France absolutely do not accept it?"

He Rui turned to Li Runshi. "Chairman Li, what do you think?"

Li Runshi thought for a moment and replied, "If they absolutely do not accept it, we will announce that we absolutely do not accept any results they discuss in a private meeting. All consequences arising from this will be the responsibility of Britain and France!"