Theory of Friendly Nations' Surprise (15)
Volume 6: Great Depression Era · Chapter 113
"Mr. Chairman, under your leadership, the living standards of the Chinese people have continued to rise. We hope that China will always live in a prosperous, civilized, and peaceful state. This is of great significance to the prosperity and peace of the world."
Hearing Baldwin's words, He Rui showed almost no reaction, merely lifting his teacup for a sip. This indifferent attitude made Baldwin feel that his compliments and groundwork were becoming somewhat tedious. But Baldwin's purpose for this trip was not to flatter He Rui. He continued to state his objective, "A good trade relationship has been established between China and Britain. The British government has always viewed relations with China as extremely important. I have also seen that the Chinese government has expressed many friendly attitudes towards Sino-British relations. I believe this is very good news for the world. At this stage, we very much want to understand China's future strategic direction."
Listening to Baldwin's statement, He Rui recalled the attitude within the Party. Apart from thoughts on the consumption of resources in a future Sino-British war, the Party members felt that while they might not be impatient for another war with Britain, they at least considered a renewed outbreak of war to be a matter of course. China's high-level leadership did not necessarily have any interest in that place called India; everyone simply viewed India from a geopolitical perspective. As long as India was restored to its historical state of independence—restoring the traditional dozen or so countries—China's geopolitical security pressure would drop precipitously. China had no interest in Indian territory, but China would not let Britain take advantage either.
Since Baldwin was so frank, He Rui did not conceal his own views. "Our attitude on the border demarcation issue is consistent: territories that traditionally belong to China must return to China. This is our consistent stance. Apart from this, China's future direction is peaceful development, and to let China's development benefit the globe."
Baldwin felt a bit helpless in his heart, though only slightly. After the Sino-British War, although the McMahon Line had been abolished, the border demarcation work between China and Britain had not progressed much. However, the conflict was not very large either. Because of the independence of Upper Myanmar and the Assam region, China only bordered India in the Xinjiang area.
For this visit, the Baldwin Cabinet had already made a decision: they were prepared to make concessions in the entire Aksai Chin and Ladakh regions. The reason was very simple—it was not worth it for Britain to bury a fuse for war with China over a piece of wasteland with an altitude of over 3,000 meters. If this piece of land could be exchanged for long-term peace, the British Cabinet and even the Parliament believed it was worth it.
In early 1934, China had already given its final demarcation requirements to Britain. The reason was clear: all Tibetan regions must return to China. Unlike the weak Manchu Qing, China not only provided racial and religious proof and proposed an accurate territorial scope, but also clearly informed Britain that at the current stage, Britain must not take any actions to change the status quo of the region. If Britain did so, China could only consider the British side to be unilaterally changing the status quo.
The meaning of these words was clear: if Britain unilaterally changed the status quo, China would have to "restore the status quo." In British diplomatic parlance, this meant the outbreak of military conflict.
Although the British Cabinet and Parliament cursed China, both sides were very clear that if war broke out again between China and Britain, the fighting would absolutely not be centered in the high-altitude region of Leh, but would erupt across the entire Indian region.
Now, China and France were in a substantive alliance, the United States was trapped in an economic crisis, the Soviet Union was the object of a British blockade, and Germany had begun rebuilding its army after Hitler came to power. As for East Asia, it had already been united by He Rui. If a Sino-British war broke out, Britain would have to rely on its own strength to fight China in India. The last time Britain did this was fighting the Boers in South Africa. The Boers, with a total population of less than a million and no industry of their own, gave the British memories that ran deep.
However, Britain would absolutely not compromise under threat. The purpose of Baldwin's visit this time was to seek a deal. Since holding onto those hundred thousand square kilometers of plateau wasteland was a strategic burden for Britain, abandoning these hundred thousand square kilometers of plateau wasteland should bring strategic benefits to Britain.
"Mr. Chairman, Britain considers you a great statesman. Among your completed achievements, solving the strategic trap of the Far East region is undoubtedly an astonishing accomplishment." Baldwin began to cut straight to the point, but as the British Prime Minister, Baldwin cut in from a strategic level, expecting the conversation to remain on that level.
"According to the concepts of traditional European political science, the Far East is a strategic trap. Any action by you would trigger intense reactions from Russia and Japan. Even if China won in the short term, it would pay the price of long-term confrontation with Russia and Japan. But you saw through the situation with astonishing political vision, bringing stability to the current Far East region. This is a classic case in the political science departments of various universities. So, as a scholar yourself, how do you view the strategic trap that may exist between China and Britain?"
Sitting beside him, British Foreign Secretary Chamberlain (the elder) felt somewhat helpless hearing this. Calling a politician a scholar is a huge honor in Europe. But in reality, He Rui was a famous scholar in the field of world geopolitics who applied his learning to practice, holding high prestige in European academic circles. Prime Minister Baldwin addressing He Rui as a scholar made Secretary Chamberlain a bit helpless, but what made him even more unhappy was that this title was actually well-deserved.
Since Prime Minister Baldwin expressed friendliness, He Rui also answered frankly, "I have always believed that the countries in the Far East region knew this matter was a strategic trap; what everyone lacked was merely the courage to dismantle the trap. I simply solved the situation of mutual distrust in security and economics together with the Far East countries. After the Far East countries established security and economic mutual trust, this strategic trap was naturally resolved. Prime Minister, if you think about starting a war now from the perspective of Japan or the Soviet Union, you will discover a very strange result. Far East countries attacking each other is actually attacking their own markets and sources of commodities. Understanding this does not require profound political science concepts; one only needs to take a look at the trade data of the past five years to understand this fact."
Baldwin actually did not quite agree with He Rui's view in his heart. Britain believed that while China's means of maintaining security in the Far East region certainly had trade factors, the true foundation was that the Soviet Union could absolutely not defeat the East Asian Coalition forces in the Far East, and China, as the core of the East Asian Coalition, had the power to control all parties to prevent the outbreak of war.
What the British upper class and academic circles greatly appreciated was China's strategic understanding and strategic continuity in maintaining peace through a bold yet sufficiently cautious approach. This was also the reason Baldwin could obtain the support of the British upper class; the British upper class generally believed that China was a credible country with which interests could be exchanged.
"Mr. Chairman, do you consider the disputed areas between China and Britain to be a strategic trap?" Baldwin asked.
He Rui shook his head. "The strategic trap between China and Britain lies in the temptation of colonies. China will absolutely not acquire colonies, whether substantive or implicit."
If Upper Myanmar and the Assam region were currently Chinese colonies, these words would be a slap in his own face. But China had already granted independence to these two regions when reaching a package solution for border issues with Japan. Both regions were indeed independent politically and economically, having established governments of their own people. China had no diplomatic privileges in either region.
Since both regions adopted a state ownership system for land, China likewise did not possess any private land in either region. Even land leases were normal commercial contracts; for rubber plantations, which had the longest contract usage times, the lease period did not exceed 20 years. The lifespan of a rubber tree was just 25 years, and it could not be tapped for the first 7 years. The British government was not without experts; after conducting a comprehensive study of various facts, they admitted in their report to the British government that China indeed had not colonized Upper Myanmar and Assam.
Of course, the experts also emphasized in the report that Upper Myanmar and Assam had formed a substantive alliance relationship with China. Because of the close relationship between the two regions and China, this alliance relationship was very stable. If a Sino-British war broke out, these two regions would immediately join the Chinese side and become Britain's enemies.
Baldwin knew that at this stage, Britain had absolutely no power to divide the East Asian Alliance, nor could it divide the relationship between Upper Myanmar, Assam, and China. This was what forced Baldwin to come to China. If there were any opportunity within the security system constructed by China, no matter how small that crack was, Britain, this "shit-stirring stick," would be able to change form and insert itself, performing the offshore balancing operation Britain was most skilled at.
Baldwin continued, "Mr. Chairman, I believe your guarantee. But I find it very strange why China has no interest in colonies. Is this because of China's arrogance? I have heard that in Chinese history, areas outside of Chinese territory were viewed as barbarians."
He Rui felt that the British were truly skilled and brilliant "shit-stirring sticks," even bringing up China's Hua-Yi distinction (Civilized vs. Barbarian) to use. However, if even the British considered the Hua-Yi distinction to be China's strategic weakness, how could He Rui not know? Since Baldwin had presented his face to He Rui, He Rui had to go up and give it a slap, giving Baldwin some soul-shaking tremors.
"China is a country with 5,000 years of civilized history, and is also the only 5,000-year ancient civilization that has continued to this day. Where does China's vitality lie? Sir, China's vitality lies in continuous learning and progress. Chinese sages had a view: when things do not go smoothly, seek the cause in oneself. This kind of self-reflection is one of the cores of Chinese civilization. The Hua-Yi distinction was a concept proposed in a defensive state; with civilization developed to the current stage, this concept is already outdated and restricts the development of civilization..."
Baldwin listened intently, while British Foreign Secretary Chamberlain was somewhat disappointed. He knew He Rui would absolutely not say that China wanted to establish an empire on which the sun never sets. Sure enough, as Chamberlain expected, He Rui continued, "The China of today believes that if the world cannot develop in a more civilized direction, it will regress. Drawing a circle on the ground to make a prison does not promote the development of human civilization. China believes that the future world will definitely be a new world where all races, countries, and nations have equal status and dignity. In the new era, there will be no superiority of the white race, no superiority of the yellow race, and no racial superiority of any other people. In that era, all people on Earth will be liberated and become citizens of equal countries."
Chamberlain listened to the scratching sound made by the pen tips of the recorders in both diplomatic teams moving rapidly across the paper, feeling helpless at the precision of He Rui's wording. In European political concepts, there was a very clear division between subjects, freemen, and citizens. Citizens were those in a country who possessed the right to vote. Although the British people were subjects, they were at least granted the right to vote. This was a very high political right.
Back then, before the old American country gentlemen launched the War of Independence, they had jointly written a letter to the King of England, their suzerain. The language in the letter was extremely humble; the old American country gentlemen requested the King of England to grant them the right to vote, and to give the old American country gentlemen a certain number of parliamentary seats in the British Parliament. If Britain had agreed to such a request, the old country gentlemen in the North American colonies could have transformed instantly, becoming noble Englishmen!
However, the British government refused. The old American country gentlemen then shouted the slogan "No Taxation Without Representation" and raised the banner of rebellion against Britain.
Now that He Rui used "citizen," Secretary Chamberlain did not think this was any good omen.
But He Rui did not seize the topic to elaborate further. He continued, "China has no thought of competing with Britain for colonies. China merely believes that human civilization should continuously progress, with everyone obtaining equality, freedom, and human rights. Therefore, no strategic trap exists between China and Britain. I emphasize once more, China will absolutely not acquire substantive or implicit colonies."
After listening to He Rui's clear answer, Baldwin felt that this trip had already obtained the due results. If China and Britain did not compete for colonies, war would not break out between the two countries at this stage, and the lords in the British Parliament could completely accept such a result.
Next, Baldwin wanted to discuss a more dangerous issue. The 70-year-old man adjusted his breathing, drank another half cup of tea, and prepared himself mentally before asking, "Britain feels very vague about China's future strategy. China was already a great power, and now it is a great power that holds the balance in the world. China's future strategy will have a huge impact on the world. I wonder if you, Mr. Chairman, are willing to lift this state of ambiguity."
Looking at Old Man Baldwin's aged face, He Rui even felt some sympathy for the hardship of this old man having to run to China at the advanced age of 70. For the interests of Britain, the British political elites truly spared no effort and exhausted their wisdom.
But Britain's future had already been decided, and He Rui did not want to provoke the British government at this time. So he answered, "China hopes to make China's contribution to the world in science and technology, culture, trade, and peace, just as in history. China was like this in the past, is like this now, and will be like this in the future. Long before the Age of Discovery, China possessed fleets that reached Africa, yet China never engaged in colonization. I feel Britain can certainly understand China's future."
Seeing that He Rui had no intention of continuing the discussion, the Chinese personnel and the British personnel exchanged micro-expressions. Soon, Foreign Secretary Chamberlain followed the prior arrangement and gave Prime Minister Baldwin a hint. In a friendly atmosphere between host and guests, the meeting ended.
There was a state banquet afterwards, but there was no need for He Rui to attend. According to the rules of reciprocity, He Rui would only be obliged to make an appearance if the King of England visited China. In a diplomatic arrangement of the same level, it should be Premier Wu Youping who was responsible for hosting the British Prime Minister.
Since the Sino-British demarcation was finally coming to an end, this made Wu Youping very happy. Learning that He Rui would not attend the evening banquet, Wu Youping felt even happier. Before going to the banquet, Wu Youping went to He Rui's place. "Chairman, if Baldwin wants to discuss China's strategic ambiguity with me, do you have any thoughts you want to present to Baldwin?"
"That depends on whether you are kind-hearted or not," He Rui's tone was relaxed, but what came to his mind was Li Runshi. If Li Runshi were the Premier right now, this dialogue with Baldwin would completely match He Rui's expectations.
But Wu Youping did not know this. He laughed, "Chairman, you know that when facing foreigners, I can't be spoken of as very kind. However, hearing you say this, you must have some ideas."
Since Wu Youping asked, He Rui did not keep it to himself. "Since diplomacy requires speaking the truth, you might as well tell the British Prime Minister that the best method for Britain is to let all colonies establish independent states. With Britain's identity as the former suzerain, organize a British Commonwealth with Britain as the head based on voluntary participation. This can maximize Britain's interests."
Listening to He Rui's introduction, Wu Youping's eyes lit up at first, but soon he felt it was not quite possible. "Chairman, if Britain does this, wouldn't it dismantle the British Empire? Moreover, Britain will claim that they are currently letting various colonies form their own local parliaments and enhancing the autonomy of the colonies. This suggestion is too radical."
He Rui was indifferent. "So I said, whether you do it or not depends on whether you are kind enough. If you don't want to give Britain a practical and feasible suggestion, just speak pleasantries."
Wu Youping very much wanted to give pointers on the geopolitical landscape to the British Prime Minister, and the suggestion He Rui proposed was indeed very grand in vision. Since He Rui gave the authorization, Wu Youping couldn't help but feel eager in his heart. Finally, Wu Youping couldn't resist asking, "Will this not trigger a diplomatic incident?"
"Haha!" He Rui was amused. "What are you afraid of? If Britain dares to make a diplomatic protest, we dare to issue a statement and have the newspapers publish the specific words you said."
Seeing that He Rui was completely backing him up, Wu Youping felt settled. After a moment of thought, he gained confidence from the comparison of strength between China and Britain. It was not China fearing Britain now, but Britain fearing China. In terms of national strategic interests, India was Britain's testicles. If the British didn't know what was good for them this time and insisted on provoking a diplomatic conflict, as long as the level escalated to the level of war, China's current national power could completely turn Britain into a eunuch. Britain was a great power after all; they knew propriety.
He Rui added at this point, "Britain was the world hegemon after all; there are plenty of people of insight within their country. You also mentioned just now that Britain is gradually permitting various colonies to establish their own parliaments, and Britain itself is no longer seeking more colonies. This shows that Britain has plenty of people who understand. You just need to be polite enough; don't be arrogant in attitude, be kind, be professional. As for how cruel the facts are, Britain knows very well."
"Really?" Wu Youping was just 40 years old and was truly moved at this moment.
He Rui gave Wu Youping a reassurance pill. "I heard a piece of news: Britain's military expenditure next year is likely to reach between 42 million and 45 million."
"What about this year?" Wu Youping did not care about Britain's military expenditure; he only cared about China's military expenditure.
"This year is 37.2 million pounds." He Rui paid very close attention to the military expenditures of countries around the world.
"...That's an increase of about 15%," Wu Youping calculated instantly. There were not many reasons for a country's military expenditure to increase by 15%; either the army was undergoing massive re-equipment, or they planned to complete a large batch of brand-new military equipment. If it was the latter, it proved that the country was beginning to expand its military. Of course, a one-year change in military expenditure did not mean Britain wanted to expand its military and prepare for war. However, if British military expenditure continued to increase, then it was self-evident. As for the target of Britain's military expansion and war preparation, Wu Youping did not want to ask. In any case, Britain could absolutely not ignore China.
"Go on, it's almost time," He Rui urged.
Watching Wu Youping's retreating figure, He Rui looked forward to his close comrade-in-arms being able to have a good time at the banquet.