文明破晓 (English Translation)

— "This world needs a more advanced form of civilization"

Politics Cold, Economics Hot (10)

Volume 6: Great Depression Era · Chapter 88

While Ribbentrop was contacting the Soviet Union to open up markets, Professor Karl, though bearing no diplomatic mission, relied on his old acquaintances in East Asia to visit Japan.

On the road leading from Tokyo Airport to the city center, laborers were working on both sides. Crowds of people outside the bus were laying railway tracks; it appeared they were preparing to build a branch line from the train station to downtown Tokyo. Heading towards Tokyo along this route, numerous factory construction sites appeared on both sides of the road.

Professor Karl did not find this strange. European enterprises also built factories next to railways or canals; the intersections of canals and railways were always thriving cities in Europe.

As the bus entered downtown Tokyo, Professor Karl's eyes immediately lit up. The rebuilt Tokyo was much more impressive. Although the streets still seemed narrow compared to China, there was a world of difference compared to before the Great Kanto Earthquake.

At the office of the Japan Academy of Sciences, Professor Karl, President of the German Academy of Sciences, received a warm welcome. Most present were Japanese scholars engaged in international politics. When Professor Taira Toyomori appeared, Professor Karl was filled with pleasant surprise. In the eyes of the European academic community, Taira Toyomori's status as President of Japan merely gilded his professorial title with a thick layer of gold. Fundamentally, European academia was still more willing to view Professor Taira Toyomori as an excellent scholar. This was not European academia being narcissistic; in the European tradition, the status of a university professor was indeed more noble than that of an official.

As Professor Taira Toyomori shook hands with Professor Karl, he said in English, "If Professor Karl is not busy, please come to my humble home as a guest tonight."

Professor Karl was delighted and agreed immediately. Professor Taira Toyomori knew that if he continued to stay there, he would only steal the spotlight from the hosts, so he soon found a reason to leave. With that, Professor Karl immediately became the center of the meeting. In the ensuing exchange, Professor Karl handled himself with ease. Although the group of professors had outstanding scholarship, they were limited by their perspective and experience, and had no way to access matters that could only be decided by the true high-level leadership. As scholars providing advice, their views were inevitably somewhat varied and overly academic.

There was nothing much to introduce about the current state of Germany. Germany already had over six million unemployed, a fact that had been recounted in newspapers many times. Even if the German economy, which had hit rock bottom, started to rebound, it couldn't simply shoot up from dry land. Professor Karl mainly asked for the Japanese scholars' views on the Japanese economy.

After hearing the descriptions "Clump Economy" and "Clump State" several times in succession, Professor Karl felt that this country, Japan, was truly quite interesting. Compared to the trend in Europe where most political parties claimed to be socialist, Japan still did not use "socialism" to describe its own country. Present-day Japan used "Clump" to describe its political characteristics.

Based on the descriptions from the Japanese scholars, Professor Karl discovered that the so-called "Clump State" really could not be simply viewed as a Japanese model of socialist philosophy. Compared to other countries, Japan's small-peasant economy had never fully developed. Before the Meiji Restoration, land belonged to the Daimyo. After the success of the Meiji Restoration, land began to be sold, and a yeoman farmer economy appeared.

As the Japanese Revolution turned Japan into a republic, the agricultural population obtained land use rights, and Japan's rural economy developed rapidly. Yeoman farmers, under government encouragement, formed small rural grassroots organizations divided by region. The Japanese agricultural system, which had not been fully developed originally, turned into a series of collective agricultural systems.

Under such a social structure, this "Clump State" of Japan could be considered a system that kneaded traditional Japanese culture and industrialization together. If one had to describe it, although Japan's former noble lords had been eliminated and the landed privileged class no longer existed, the "Rise of the Grassroots" proposed before the Meiji Restoration had been realized in a very unexpected way. Powerful figures truly from the local areas had propped up the old model similar to the Japanese countryside.

Japan's cities, on the other hand, were more industrialized. With the elimination of the privileged class in the central government, the changes in the cities were more rapid. Moreover, the Japanese Communist Party was the second-largest party in the Japanese Diet, and the relationship between the Japan Future Party and the Japanese Communist Party was considered a normal competitive relationship between parties.

The scholars had no intention of flattering the Future Party; they believed that the Future Party "did what the government ought to do." In Professor Karl's view, this was already a very high evaluation. Unlike the elected governments of Europe, in East Asian culture, implementing benevolent governance was the government's obligation. As long as problems appeared in society, they would naturally be blamed on the government. Especially in a "Clump" state like Japan, which retained a large number of feudal remnants, people would believe even more that the upper echelons must take responsibility. The scholars' belief that the Japan Future Party did what the government ought to do was equivalent to saying that Japan under the rule of the Future Party was being governed benevolently.

After asking around, Professor Karl learned that the Future Party had actually completed a "National Rice Movement." The use of pesticides and fertilizers had rapidly increased domestic rice production in Japan. Japan also imported a large amount of rice from the agricultural futures center in Shanghai, China. It had also signed land lease agreements with the Russian Primorye region and others, investing significant manpower in the Russian Primorye region to develop local farmland and obtaining a considerable amount of rice. Every household in Japan could now eat rice. This was food that previously only the Emperor and the Shogun could eat at every meal.

Even with the implementation of maximum working hours and minimum wage systems, Japan's unemployment rate was less than 5%. This was completely within an acceptable range.

On his way to Professor Taira Toyomori's home, Professor Karl compared Japan with Germany and could only sigh. Although Germany's industrial level currently exceeded Japan's, there was indeed a not insignificant gap in national governance and people's livelihood. If Germany's employment rate and food supply in the past three years could have reached Japan's level, the Nazi Party would never have been able to come to power no matter what.

The former Imperial Palace had become a scenic tourist spot. The Japanese Presidential Residence where Professor Taira Toyomori now lived, like the Prime Minister's Residence, was not a very large house. Mrs. Taira, wearing a kimono, kindly served dinner to the two professors and then withdrew.

After three rounds of drinks, Professor Taira Toyomori asked, "I heard Professor Karl met with He-kun. I wonder if He-kun's elegance remains as before?"

Professor Karl recalled for a moment. He Rui's hair had whitened quite a bit; one could not expect a forty-three-year-old man to have the glowing countenance of someone under thirty. Professor Karl replied, "Chairman He's academic level has become more profound."

Hearing such a description, Professor Taira Toyomori sighed, "He Rui was already brilliantly talented. To be continuing to improve at this time, it is truly enviable."

Professor Karl was in no mood to praise He Rui. He asked, "Last time I came to Japan, the prevailing ideas in Japan were still the 'Revive Asia Theory' and the 'Invade China Theory.' I wonder what changes have occurred in Japan's current thinking?"

Professor Taira was not surprised by this question. "Does Professor Karl not think that the Revive Asia Theory is already the mainstream thought in Japan?"

Professor Karl shook his head. "I do not think so. Back then, Japan still had the desire to lead Asia. The current situation has changed. Although I have not conducted research on Japan's recent thought, according to the laws of change in human history, I believe Japan's current thinking is likely closer to some ideas from the Shogunate era. After all, even when the Tokugawa Shogunate banned maritime activities, the list of banned destinations never included China."

Professor Taira knew that Professor Karl was a top scholar of geopolitics and did not try to brush him off. "What does Professor Karl think is the foundation of the current stable situation in the Far East?"

Professor Karl replied without even thinking, "The Soviet Union has determined that it absolutely cannot win a war in the East Asian region. And China has the ability to determine the military situation in the Far East, and China is willing to maintain peace and mutual trust in the Far East. The stable situation in the Far East has been achieved because of this."

Professor Taira nodded. "The Far East order constructed by China is not a simple model of non-aggression, but a model of economic cooperation. If Professor Karl has heard of the East Asian Coal and Steel Community, you would probably understand the appearance of mutual cooperation in the Far East region now. Most Japanese people now are very satisfied with the current situation. The Japanese Cabinet has held several meetings to discuss the situation, and a consensus was reached at the meetings. Now Japan has obtained benefits that it could not have obtained in the past no matter what kind of war it launched."

"...Professor Taira, you wouldn't be thinking of suggesting that France and Germany construct a European Coal and Steel Community, would you?" Professor Karl smiled bitterly.

President Taira Toyomori understood the Franco-German contradiction well, so he shook his head. "Peace requires not only a window of opportunity but also national strength and the strategic determination of the national leader. According to the Chinese saying, a great hero only appears in China every five hundred years. He-kun is such a figure. He defeated Japan in order to save Japan. I think Professor Karl should be able to understand what I am saying."

Professor Karl nodded, but he did not quite agree with Taira Toyomori's view. In European theory, East Asia and the entire Southeast Asian region were "China," and the people in these regions were all Chinese. Japan, Korea, Burma, and the Indochina region—these regions were to China what Prussia, Bavaria, and Austria were to the Holy Roman Empire.

The Republic of China was to China what Italy was to the Roman Empire. Italians looked at the various Roman provinces and felt those places were barbarian. Chinese people looked at surrounding regions and thought they were barbarians. From a European perspective, this was the most normal thing.

Professor Karl felt that China defeating Japan and letting Japan return to its proper position was definitely not salvation, but the imperial core rectifying the domestic order of the empire. Following this line of thought, Professor Karl probed, "Professor Taira, is Japan's view of the Versailles System different from before?"

Taira Toyomori did not answer immediately. The attitude within Japan had indeed changed quite a bit, but it also seemed not to have changed. what had truly changed was Japan's self-positioning. When most people in Japan once again believed that Japan was a member of the East Asian region, the former 'Revive Asia Faction' believed that East Asia must liberate all of Asia. The 'Invade China Faction' believed that Europe and America were bound to launch aggression against East Asia again; to avoid aggression, East Asia had to rapidly develop its strength, actively liberate all of Asia, and drive out the European and American colonialists.

What had changed was not necessarily Japan's expansionist views; what had changed was that previously Japan needed to pay the costs of expansion itself, whereas now Japan believed the costs of expansion should be borne by China. When the East Asian Alliance expanded externally, China would eat large chunks of meat, Japan would share some meat and broth, and if there were bones, they would be given to Korea to gnaw on. As for Ryukyu, casually giving some crumbs would be enough to make the Ryukyuans eat until their mouths were oily.

Professor Taira Toyomori decided to probe a little. "Professor Karl wouldn't think that Europe and America would actively attack East Asia, would you?"

Professor Karl shook his head. Any European or American politician with a slightly normal brain knew that attacking the Chinese mainland now would be suicidal. China could leverage the advantages of fighting on home ground to easily raise an army of thirty million. The total population of most European and American countries was not even thirty million. Even if they drained the last drop of blood, Europe and America could not win.

China did not yet have a navy, but Japan did. With one order from He Rui, Japan's Eight-Eight Fleet would truly be thrown into the battle to defend the East Asian Alliance. Combined with China's fierce air force capable of sinking British battlecruisers, close-shore combat for European and American countries in East Asia would be a nightmare.

So Professor Karl asked, "Professor Taira, if there were a German-Japanese alliance, how much influence do you think it would have on geopolitics?"

Taira Toyomori had not asked Professor Karl about the result of Germany wanting to cooperate with China. The He Rui government had downgraded diplomatic relations between China and Germany. Given He Rui's style, this was explicitly informing the whole world that China and Germany would absolutely not form an alliance.

Purely from a geopolitical perspective, if China and Germany formed an alliance, Germany could gain a huge advantage. China bordered the Soviet Union's weak Far East region, and Upper Burma and Assam, which China actually controlled, guarded the passage to British India. If China and Germany joined hands, once Germany went to war with France, China's army of thirty million could separately attack the Soviet Union and British India, leaving those two countries completely unable to attend to the decisive battle between France and Germany.

Precisely because such strategic deduction posed not even a bit of difficulty, Professor Taira Toyomori asked in return, "Is Germany preparing to rearm and restore its former glory?"

Professor Karl hurriedly shook his head and answered, "Germany needs peace right now."

Although he said this, Professor Karl felt truly emotional in his heart. Conversing with excellent geopolitical scholars was just this troublesome; their understanding of the world situation was too profound, so much so that the results of any action would be easily seen through. He Rui was a master of geopolitics. Downgrading diplomatic relations with Germany might certainly be because He Rui truly wanted to push his ideal of "liberating the whole world." From a realist perspective, doing so could also send a clear signal to the globe that China had no intention of provoking a war.

Seeing a trace of pride on Professor Taira Toyomori's face, the kind a scholar has during academic discussion, Professor Karl asked, "I wonder if Japan is willing to expand trade cooperation with Germany?"

He had thought President Taira Toyomori would have misgivings, but unexpectedly, after hearing this, Taira Toyomori immediately replied, "Japan is willing to cooperate with Germany in high-tech industries."

After Taira Toyomori finished speaking, he waited for Professor Karl's answer. Japan's economy had been very good in the last two years, but with China's rapid development, the disadvantages of Japan's small population and small market had been completely revealed. If Japan wanted to increase industrial profit margins, it had to increase investment in high-value-added industries. In this field, Germany indeed had many industries that Japan envied greatly. The Japanese Ministry of Finance had long made assessments: Japan did not need to devour all high-tech industries; just possessing one or two fields would be enough for Japan to obtain very rich returns.