East Asian Alliance (10)
Volume 6: Great Depression Era · Chapter 60
Wu Youping was calculating the import and export data in his mind when he heard Li Runshi ask, "Premier, our only significant trade deficit this year is with France. If we publicize this, public sentiment would naturally stabilize. Why not do so?"
Since Li Runshi had grasped the key point, Wu Youping explained, "Because France needs this kind of propaganda. Capital operation under the capitalist model requires confidence. Seeing France running a huge surplus with China gives investors confidence in the future of the French economy. As for the 4.5 billion Francs itself, it doesn't impact China much. We need to immediately increase production capacity and acquire more advanced technology at this stage, so we spend money to buy from France. But ordinary people, and even most people investing in France, don't want to consider these things. Nor do they have the ability to view problems from a macroeconomic perspective. China's GDP reached 120 billion in 1931, so 4.5 billion is only 4%. The growth of our enterprises above designated size reaches 10% annually; a deficit of 4.5 is only one-third of our economic increment. There is no need to deliberately counter this with information."
Li Runshi thought for a moment and continued to ask, "Is this to make investors worldwide believe that they can earn very rich returns in China?"
"Yes. Because we have financial controls, the money earned by foreign companies cannot be easily remitted out of China. Minister Li, in reality, of the 4.5 billion used to repay the Bank of France, 2 billion was transferred into the Bank of France's account at the Sino-French Cooperation Bank. The Bank of France has been lobbying us for years, hoping to allow the Sino-French Cooperation Bank to conduct financial business in China. Even if they can't get the rights for deposit business, they at least hope to get the rights for lending business. We have never agreed. The Sino-French Cooperation Bank can only provide deposit, lending, and exchange services to French companies in China. And provide loans and exchange services to Chinese companies that have obtained import and export licenses and approval.
"As for the so-called potential 2.5 billion surplus money, this is a final statistic. There is no 2.5 billion Francs flowing out of China. There isn't even 2.5 billion Francs. This is denominated in Francs; many French merchants used RMB directly when purchasing goods from China."
Although Li Runshi hadn't been the Minister of Propaganda for long, he had completed a large amount of learning during this period. After listening to Wu Youping's explanation, Li Runshi compared these explanations with the knowledge he had learned and the contents of the Central Committee documents. They matched perfectly, and he already had ideas for the propaganda content in his mind.
Most Chinese people didn't understand foreign trade, and while these summary figures weren't lies, they were numbers derived from various statistics and exchange rate conversions. The Chinese public didn't understand the knowledge involved, lacked the interest to acquire it, and had no scenarios in which to apply it.
Thinking of this, Li Runshi didn't immediately voice the matter he was already considering. He prepared to find a specific time after this meeting to discuss his views on 'social practice' with Wu Youping. For the Propaganda Department, this was not just a job, but also a matter of significant policy perspective.
Seeing that Li Runshi's questions were over, Li Chenggang continued to discuss exports. "Premier. At this stage, China's shipbuilding has gained a huge technological advantage, but this advantage is only available vis-à-vis France. Our main markets are domestic. We currently look forward to expanding trade with Thailand. Thailand also has huge export potential and is also a very good market. The Ministry of Commerce's efforts have reached their limit at this stage; if we want further development, we can only rely on the state coming forward. The Ministry of Commerce has prepared the materials; if the Premier needs them, we will send them over immediately."
Wu Youping just nodded. At this stage, China's main external strength was focused on diplomatic dealings with world powers; diplomacy and commerce with other countries were just beginning. Even for an Asian country like Thailand, since both Britain and France were trying to control the Thai regime, they were full of vigilance against Chinese intervention. It was not easy for China to expand trade with Thailand at this stage.
So Wu Youping turned to inquire about trade with the Soviet Union. Speaking of the Soviet Union, Li Chenggang answered confidently, "At this stage, the Soviet side has already felt the improvement in the quality of our products..."
Li Runshi watched the unconscious change in Li Chenggang's expression and found it interesting. After listening for a while, the content Li Chenggang described made Li Runshi feel even more amused. Although most of the Soviet Union's territory was in Asia, the Soviet Union was essentially a European country. Being in a favored position, geographical reasons made the Soviet Union no stranger to European commodities. So every time the Soviets came to China to purchase, they would take out similar European commodities to compare with Chinese ones.
In terms of large-scale industrial products, there was indeed a gap between China and similar European products. But the Soviet Union currently lacked foreign exchange and didn't have the money to import these finished industrial goods from Europe. Moreover, Western Europe's blockade of the Soviet Union made it impossible for the Soviets to achieve a trade balance with Europe through normal trade. More importantly, the Soviet public couldn't afford European goods. So the Soviets could only brag when purchasing, but in the end, they still bought a large amount of Chinese light industrial goods.
However, starting last year, the quality of light industrial goods provided by China had greatly improved, with cost-performance ratios reaching or even starting to slightly exceed similar European products. Although the Soviets continued to brag while holding European goods, the quantity of their purchases had indeed seen a significant increase.
Li Runshi was somewhat surprised to hear this. Because this specific content seemed to conflict with the news Li Runshi had received.
Li Chenggang continued, "At this stage, the direction of our exports to the Soviet Union is being adjusted. We are preparing to expand imports of crude steel and pig iron from the Soviet Union. The goal is to balance the surplus caused by exporting trucks, tricycles, cars, as well as transistor radios, record players, and similar products to the Soviet Union."
Wu Youping had great confidence in this. "I'm just waiting to see your year-end report." After speaking, he looked at Li Runshi, wanting to hear if Li Runshi had any questions.
Li Runshi asked, "Didn't we transfer the technology for these products to the Soviet Union? Why has there been an increase in Soviet import demand?"
Hearing this question, Li Chenggang felt truly emotional. Seeing that Wu Youping didn't signal to stop him from answering, he explained, "The Soviet system does very well in the field of distribution; the state provides fairly equitable distribution to the people. The Soviet distribution model is crafted very meticulously; individuals and families can receive very good distribution..."
Li Runshi did indeed understand this, so he quietly waited for Li Chenggang to say "but."
"...The Soviet government does very well in the field of public services and the production arrangement of necessities. But regarding the personal needs of the Soviet people, the Soviet government can't figure it out. Because people's personalized needs, differentiated needs, are a market demand. The Soviet Union has no way to satisfy such demands. Under the Soviet system, private enterprises oriented towards differentiation and personalization have no room for survival. So even if the Soviet Union obtained the technology transfer for light industrial goods, they could only produce many fixed types of products. Thus, the Soviets found that placing orders with our companies was more cost-effective than building factories themselves."
Li Runshi understood this content, and this content was precisely not what Li Runshi wanted to know most. He continued to ask, "According to some statistical content I obtained, Soviet enterprises seem unable to fully satisfy the needs of the Soviet people even in production? Why is this?"
Li Chenggang didn't answer immediately but looked at Wu Youping. He saw Wu Youping just pick up a report to read, showing no reaction at all. Only then did Li Chenggang turn to Li Runshi. "Any product, when it first appears, will satisfy the core demand. I have read Minister Li's articles. According to Minister Li's description of the principal contradiction and secondary contradictions, after the principal contradiction is eliminated, the secondary contradiction will transform into the principal contradiction. The main purpose of Soviet enterprises is to complete production quotas, not to continuously satisfy the needs of the Soviet people. The Soviet Union also faces a big problem: among the Soviet Union's competitive products, civilian goods are not included. So the Soviet Union cannot produce too many civilian goods; if they produce too many, it will naturally be waste. As for Soviet civilian goods, anyone who uses them knows. So for the Soviet Union, it must possess its own production capacity. Our country has a great demand for the Soviet Union's advantageous products, so importing light industrial goods is very beneficial to the Soviet Union."
Li Runshi thought while listening, and in a blink of an eye, he understood the principle. As a socialist country, the happy life of the Soviet people is obtained through labor, so the Soviet system stipulates that more work brings more pay. Among the Soviet Union's advantageous products, timber and ore are the current main products. Countless piles of timber and ore are piled up within the Soviet Union, unable to create value for the Soviet Union at all. So they must be sold.
Foreign exchange obtained from exports is meaningless if left in accounts; commodities must be purchased. Foreign commodities are good and cheap, better than domestic Soviet civilian goods, so buy more.
Li Runshi followed up with a question, "How long will it take for the Soviet Union to produce commodities equivalent to our domestic ones?"
"If it's civilian goods of equal quality and cost-performance, I think we might not see it in this lifetime," Li Chenggang answered with a lack of confidence.
Even if Li Chenggang wasn't very confident, this answer was enough to surprise Li Runshi. Li Runshi didn't think Li Chenggang would deliberately belittle the Soviet Union, nor was it possible for him to be hostile to the Soviet Union, which was also a socialist country. But Li Runshi momentarily didn't know how to ask, because what seemed like a single manifestation actually involved very broad content. He feared that even raising a dozen questions might not necessarily achieve the foundational knowledge to understand this issue.
Li Chenggang held the same view. However, the work responsible by the Minister of Propaganda was very important. Previously, there had been some propaganda issues domestically. Because the previous Minister of Propaganda had insufficient understanding of China's development theory, contradictions appeared between his explanations of some issues and later explanations.
To avoid these troubles, Li Chenggang said, "I will have my secretary send some reports to Minister Li."
Li Runshi nodded. Although he preferred to talk directly with comrades familiar with the situation, if the problem was too complex, reading those detailed reports would be equally effective.
At this time, Wu Youping put down the report in his hand and asked, "What is the Ministry of Commerce's analysis regarding the interior of the Asian Economic Community?"
"At this stage, Japan no longer has much of a surplus. Moreover, Japanese enterprises have already begun to differentiate. Differences have appeared between Japanese enterprises that regard China as their main market and those cultivating the Japanese market. The difference between the two is growing. Furthermore, we had better not make any propaganda that triggers ill will towards the Asian Economic Community."
Hearing Li Chenggang mention this first, Wu Youping chuckled lightly in his heart, asking with an unchanging expression, "Do you think the principal contradiction within the East Asian Economic Community does not lie in industry?"
Li Chenggang answered decisively, "Yes. Japan lacks domestic resources and its economic development relies heavily on imports. Therefore, the Japanese economy has reached a degree of refinement that China can by no means compare with. This refinement is not Japan's advantage, but a means it had to adopt to cope with the disadvantage of resource scarcity. It seems meticulous to the finest detail, but it is actually to provide more employment opportunities. If Japan adopted China's operating model, their economy would collapse.
"Korea's situation is similar to Japan's; Korea's disadvantage lies in their industrial development being even more backward. Therefore, for the Korean economy to develop, the requirements on its government are higher. If the Korean economy has problems, it must be that their government's policies have problems, not that the Korean people are not working hard. So for Korea and Japan, how to coordinate national policy is the most important thing; there is actually no need to interfere with their specific economic content..."
After the meeting, Li Runshi felt he had gained a lot. As long as the economic policies at the time were conducive to rapid economic development, a surplus or deficit of a major power for a few years was not a problem in itself. Propaganda work was to understand the essence of the problem and then conduct propaganda targeting the public's emotions. It was not to scream and shout as if the sky had fallen immediately after encountering a problem. This approach would not only fail to solve the problem but would instead intensify contradictions and trigger issues unrelated to the matter.
Li Runshi was very confident in how to do his job well, and he very much liked the process of perfecting his understanding of the entire country through work. When the truth unfolded before his eyes, Li Runshi would instinctively feel the joy of acquiring knowledge.
However, when Li Runshi received the materials promised by Li Chenggang and read them for more than half an hour, his mood became somewhat heavy.
This was an investigation report on the Soviet economy. Placed at the very front was a report on Soviet industrial enterprises. The report introduced the factory situation during the Northeast Government period. At that stage, the Northeast Government also operated a command economy, the purpose of which was to produce products, guided by maximum production efficiency. This economic model relying on financial allocation soon revealed huge waste, and the main waste existed in every link.
A relatively obvious case: in early factory management, because wages were generally not high, the waste of necessities like labor gloves and soap was heinous. The act of 'shearing the sheep' could not be solved no matter what.
Theoretically speaking, everyone has the need to maximize their own interests. When labor cannot generate sufficient remuneration, 'shearing some sheep' in passing becomes a means to increase personal income, and the risk is very small.
This problem was finally solved after the Unification War ended. With the improvement of factory treatment, when calculating wages, labor protection supplies changed from being distributed to increasing wages so workers could purchase them themselves. The problem of 'shearing the sheep' was immediately solved.
But Soviet enterprises still adopted the Northeast Government's model, with welfare accounting for a large proportion. Li Runshi's mood was somewhat heavy, but he read even more carefully. And the report did not disappoint Li Runshi; the explanation for these problems was not moral criticism, but simple and brisk economic analysis.
The enterprises producing labor protection products were also state-owned enterprises. If their products weren't purchased, those state-owned enterprises would also have to go bankrupt.
This cold analysis even made Li Runshi give a bitter smile.