文明破晓 (English Translation)

— "This world needs a more advanced form of civilization"

Chapter 606: A Chaotic Future (4)

Volume 6: Great Depression Era · Chapter 46

Chinese Foreign Minister Li Shiguang's speech was very brief: "China is a peace-loving nation, and China is willing to contribute to world peace..."

Hearing this, British Foreign Secretary Chamberlain understood that China's attitude was certainly to demand a capital ship tonnage no less than that of France. However, British Foreign Secretary Chamberlain did not particularly care about China's demands. According to various intelligence reports, China's naval equipment manufacturing capability was at best on par with Japan's, and Japan's shipbuilding capability had always relied on imports from Britain. As long as Britain did not provide shipbuilding technology to China, there would be a gap of more than ten years between China's naval equipment level and that of Britain.

In Chamberlain's personal opinion, He Rui would never accept such a large gap between China's naval equipment level and the world's advanced level. In other words, China's current demands were more of a stance. Even if China obtained the same capital ship tonnage as Britain, China would likely not actually start building capital ships.

China expressed its views, and Japan held a similar view. Italy's economy ranked last among the six nations, and the Italian Foreign Minister stated that the capital ship tonnage quota Italy obtained must not be less than that in the Washington Naval Treaty.

After all countries had explained their views, the venue temporarily fell into silence. The French Foreign Minister took this opportunity to say, "France believes that the capital ship ratio for the six nations of France, Britain, the United States, China, Japan, and Italy should be 5:5:5:3:3:1.25."

Before the British Foreign Secretary could speak, the Italian Foreign Minister was already furious. Who did the French look down on?! Standing up abruptly, the Italian Foreign Minister shouted loudly, "I resolutely oppose this!"

The British Foreign Secretary originally thought the French Foreign Minister would pressure Italy, but unexpectedly, the French Foreign Minister replied leisurely, "If Italy does not agree to this ratio, then would Italy be willing if all participating nations possessed equal capital ship tonnage?"

British Foreign Secretary Chamberlain was shocked, and even his displeasure vanished. The current Frenchman had really grasped the key to the problem. France did not care if Italy possessed the same tonnage of capital ships as Britain, and Italy's weak national power could not build capital ships of equal tonnage to Britain anyway. As long as it could cause trouble for Britain, the French did not care about the result at all.

As for whether Italy would accept such conditions, Secretary Chamberlain was actually somewhat skeptical. In 1922, just when He Rui launched the war against Japan, Mussolini also launched the second March on Rome and successfully made the King of Italy actively invite Mussolini to Rome and appoint Mussolini as the Prime Minister of Italy.

In ten years, Mussolini had established a fascist regime. To encourage Italian public morale, Mussolini proposed the slogan "Restore the Glory of Rome." Therefore, Secretary Chamberlain suspected that if Mussolini learned of the proposal made by France, he would probably immediately express support. Because obtaining the same share of naval capital ship tonnage as Britain would undoubtedly be a proof of Italy restoring the glory of Rome.

Hearing the French Foreign Minister's speech, the Italian Foreign Minister's eyes immediately widened, and those small and round eyes were full of great surprise. Originally, the Italian Foreign Minister wanted to fish in troubled waters by setting obstacles for France, but he didn't expect the French Foreign Minister to directly suggest giving Italy naval capital ship tonnage equal to the other five countries. This was not a concession by France, but directly killing the topic!

Although the Italian Foreign Minister could not answer immediately, he chose to temporarily refrain from speaking. Although the French negotiation bottom line could not yet be determined, the Italian Foreign Minister was basically certain that France lacked sincerity for this meeting even before attending the London Naval Conference.

The daytime meeting was not particularly long. By after 3 p.m., the smoggy sky of London was like evening. British Foreign Secretary Chamberlain chatted with the Italian Foreign Minister in a comfortable room in the hotel. Beside the warm fireplace, Secretary Chamberlain's tone was very relaxed, "If France withdraws from the naval arms limitation agreement, what reaction will the Italian government have?"

The Italian Foreign Minister sighed, "If such a thing happens, we can only withdraw from the arms agreement as well."

Secretary Chamberlain felt that the Italian Foreign Minister was very frank, and Secretary Chamberlain could understand Italy's reaction very well. So his topic turned to other aspects, "I see that Italy has many of its own views on China's trade policy. Does Italy have further plans?"

Now the Italian Foreign Minister became somewhat alert. In Europe, "further plans" had a very broad meaning. In dealings with non-European countries, further plans were often closer to fierce conflict. The Italian Foreign Minister simply answered readily, "We do not think we can obtain the same trade status as France at this stage. Under such a situation, Italy feels that trade with China is still within an acceptable range."

Secretary Chamberlain felt somewhat disdainful of the Italians in his heart. Such a second-rate, trailing country, or even a third-rate country, actually wanted to obtain trade status equal to France, which meant Italy actually wanted to obtain world trade status equal to Britain. This was really thinking too much.

However, this could absolutely not be said aloud. Chamberlain laughed and said, "If Italy is willing to join the Sterling Bloc, our British Empire would be very welcome."

The Italian Foreign Minister did not respond to this invitation. If Italy joined the Sterling Bloc, it meant Italy would use the pound as its foreign exchange reserve, and its economy would henceforth be constrained by Britain. What Italy expected at this stage was economic expansion, not becoming Britain's younger brother from now on.

After chatting for a while longer, both sides found that the only common point between the two countries lay in their dissatisfaction with France. Apart from this point, the contradictions between Britain and Italy still greatly exceeded cooperation. Since this was the case, both sides politely took their leave.

It was already 5:30 p.m. The Italian Foreign Minister first returned to the hotel where his delegation was staying, and soon left the hotel. He went to a restaurant in the darkness that had already fallen. This was a Chinese restaurant, and the decoration style was a quiet and elegant Chinese style. As soon as the Italian Foreign Minister put away his wet umbrella, a waiter came to lead the way. The group went straight to a private room. After the private room was opened, Chinese Foreign Minister Li Shiguang was sitting inside.

This time the Italian Foreign Minister was still very frank, and the two sides did not chat about the weather first like the British. After drinking half a cup of hot tea, the Italian Foreign Minister immediately asked, "We in Italy have the world's most creative warship designers. Many of the world's cutting-edge warships are completed by Italian designers."

Li Shiguang nodded, "I have heard of it. We greatly appreciate the unconstrained genius ideas of Italian experts."

Hearing Li Shiguang affirm the ability of Italian designers, the Italian Foreign Minister seized the opportunity to probe, "If Italy and China cooperate to jointly develop the next generation of naval capital ships, I think it would be very beneficial for both countries. Our designers believe that the operating areas of the capital ships China needs are the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The natural environment of these two oceans is completely different from the Atlantic. French designs may not be targeted enough."

After speaking, the Italian Foreign Minister looked at Li Shiguang with some expectation in his heart. He saw Li Shiguang shake his head, "We in China have already decided to design and produce future naval equipment ourselves. We are very grateful for Italy's kindness, but we have no way to cooperate with Italy."

Although somewhat disappointed, the Italian Foreign Minister also knew that China's words were quite sincere, so he asked the next question, "If France withdraws from the London Naval Conference, will China also choose to withdraw?"

"China's main purpose in attending this meeting is to understand the design parameters of capital ships of major world powers. As for whether China will participate, it also depends on whether the designs of these treaty battleships can meet China's needs. If they are too far from our ideas, China can only negotiate with various countries regarding naval tonnage."

Hearing Li Shiguang's frank answer, the Italian Foreign Minister immediately asked, "Minister Li, what do you think France truly hopes for?"

Li Shiguang smiled politely because he felt the Italians were really as shrewd as the investigation described. Lifting the teacup and finishing it, then pouring tea for both sides, Li Shiguang recalled the Central Government's assessment of Italy before sending Li Shiguang to attend the meeting.

Economically speaking, Italy lacked raw materials and markets. With such natural endowments, Italy's gross industrial and agricultural output value in 1928 was half that of France, which was enough to prove that the Italians were very hardworking, but this was also Italy's upper limit.

France's gross industrial and agricultural output value three years ago was about two-thirds of Britain's. Building a navy of the same scale as Britain was a heavy economic burden for France. Three years later, now, France's gross industrial and agricultural output value exceeded Britain's. Just the 5% handling fee earned annually from the nearly 200 billion francs of over-issued currency was enough to build a fleet comparable to Britain's. France had obviously made a decision. If the London Naval Conference could not meet France's requirements, France would likely choose to withdraw from the meeting and develop its navy on its own.

In 1931, Italy's gross industrial and agricultural output value was less than one-third of France's, while the population of the two countries was basically the same. Italy no longer had to consider competing with France economically. Now, the various contents proposed by the Italian Foreign Minister were all intended to improve Italy's status through diplomatic means.

Since the Italians were so shrewd, Li Shiguang thought he could let Italy play that jumping-up-and-down role in this conference. After finishing the second cup of tea, Li Shiguang said, "The French hope to obtain a stable trade route to East Asia to ensure trade with China. I wonder what views the Italian side has on such trade?"

The Italian Foreign Minister did not expect Li Shiguang to actually mention this topic which was very important to Italy, and his attitude immediately became cautious. After thinking for a moment, the Italian Foreign Minister smiled and said, "Does China support Italy having the same naval tonnage as Britain and France?"

"I think France might support it," Li Shiguang advised.

The Italian Foreign Minister was not useless after all. Hearing this, he understood that Li Shiguang had no good intentions. Italy was located in the middle of the Mediterranean. Going from Western Europe to Asia required passing near Italy. Italy's ideal method was to exert influence on this route as a bargaining chip for other things. However, this was the "ideal" plan. Neither Britain nor France wanted Italy to have such ability, and Italy did not have the strength to cut off the Mediterranean route in peacetime.

To obtain frankness from others, one had to show enough frankness oneself. The Italian Foreign Minister spoke his thoughts, "Minister Li, we just think that the naval tonnage division proposed by France before was unreasonable. A ratio of 1.75 for Italy is the most appropriate."

Li Shiguang nodded and answered frankly, "I think Italy can demand a ratio of 3. That is, Britain, France, and the United States possess a ratio of 5. China, Japan, and Italy possess a ratio of 3."

The Italian Foreign Minister calculated in his mind. The two countries, China and Japan, had already begun military integration at this stage. Japanese naval officers like Yamamoto Isoroku took up teaching positions at the Chinese Naval Academy and Naval School. China's former Defense Minister Xu Chengfeng served as the principal of the Japanese Army War College, and China's former National Defense University principal Zhou Yinshan served as the vice principal of the Japanese Military Academy.

If both China and Japan could get a ratio of 3, the total tonnage of the two countries would be 6, exceeding the individual naval tonnage of any one of the three countries: Britain, France, or the US. For East Asia, this was a huge benefit.

With Italy's current economy, if the Mussolini government lived frugally, even if they couldn't produce 300,000 tons of naval capital ships, it wouldn't be too far off, belonging to a completely acceptable range. If they really followed France's proposal that the six nations possess the same naval tonnage, Italy wouldn't be able to produce capital ships of equal tonnage to Britain even if they sold everything they had; it would only be a laughingstock.

Moreover, the attitude France had already expressed also proved that France did not care about the London Naval Conference at all and was very likely to withdraw from this agreement. For Italy, it was instead necessary to make this conference a success. Helping Britain keep France at the London Naval Conference might sell a favor to Britain. Italy could then conduct a certain amount of trading with Britain. For example, the Mussolini government was considering invading Ethiopia, and it might be possible to obtain support from Britain and France through trading in this conference.

Thinking of this, the Italian Foreign Minister confirmed again, "Does China really only hope to get a ratio of 3?"

Li Shiguang laughed, "Hehe, even if China builds three 35,000-ton battleships in the next few years, it is insignificant compared to various naval powers. So China has not decided on the need to join the naval treaty up to now."

Hearing this, the Italian Foreign Minister also revealed an understanding smile. Compared with China's current economic strength, beautifying China's naval tonnage ten times could only be called "having a few ships." Since the Chinese Foreign Minister was so polite, he should make China more valuable to Italy. What the Italian Foreign Minister was thinking in his heart was already how to use France to exchange for benefits from the British, and more importantly, to use China to exchange for benefits from France and Britain.

When Italians had ideas in diplomacy, they would be very hardworking. In the meeting the next day, Italy expressed its attitude, "The naval treaty ensures world peace, and countries must absolutely not withdraw! Moreover, there is a reason to invite China to join!"

British Foreign Secretary Chamberlain heard this and immediately became interested. Just as he was preparing to listen carefully to the Italian Foreign Minister's explanation, the Italian Foreign Minister said, "This is Italy's view." After speaking, Secretary Chamberlain saw the Italian Foreign Minister sit back in his chair, actually ending his speech.

Now Britain, France, and the US were surprised. They couldn't figure out what the Italian Foreign Minister wanted to do. Even the Japanese Minister of Foreign Affairs was greatly surprised, not knowing what medicine Italy was selling in its gourd.

Li Shiguang secretly laughed in his heart and gave a good review of Italy's diplomatic ability. If Italy had made a long speech expressing its views at this time, its cards would have been seen through. On the contrary, stating a clear result directly like this now, but not expressing further views, gave Italy the greatest space.

As long as some countries made decisions different from these two views of Italy in the subsequent meeting discussions, Italy would be pulled over by the relevant countries to help. At that time, Italy could propose its conditions for exchange.

However, making such a judgment required sufficient strength and political determination. It did not quite match the image of Italians as being indecisive and opportunistic. Li Shiguang recalled He Rui's view on Italy at this time, "No matter what, Italy is also a cultured country. The Roman era was a wave of cultural construction, and during the Mongol Western Expedition, a wave of more advanced Chinese culture was inputted into Italy, so Italy won't make big mistakes when picking sides."

Li Shiguang felt that Italy would not really drop the ball at the critical moment, and would not force its head out when it should be cowardly.

At this time, Italy had already expressed its views, and China and Japan had no intention of forcing their heads out either. The meeting soon returned to the track of the debate between the three countries: Britain, France, and the US. Li Shiguang watched the three countries' heated verbal exchange and felt somewhat lost in his heart. If one looked not at countries but at currencies. At the London Naval Conference, the Pound, Franc, and Dollar were engaging in a fierce struggle. Because the Dollar was currently suffering a setback, the Dollar's attitude was relatively weaker compared to the Pound and Franc.

The Chinese Yuan and Japanese Yen were waiting for an opportunity, aiming to ensure the stability of these two currencies, and were not in a hurry to jump into the battle group. As for the even weaker Italian Lira, it was different from the other five currencies. If the other five currencies were pushed too hard, they could flip the table and leave. But the interests of the Italian Lira could only be realized at this conference, so the Lira was the one that truly did not want to flip the table.

Li Shiguang hoped very much that the Chinese Yuan could become a strong currency like the Pound, Franc, and Dollar. But he also knew very well that for a considerably long period of time, the Chinese Yuan could not yet achieve that.