After the general election voting concluded in November 1928, the elected electors in various states of the United States had completed their oaths, guaranteeing that they would cast their votes for the candidate who won in their state during the electoral vote. Due to the electoral college system, the results from each state were aggregated via telegram on the very day the votes were cast.

In fact, by noon, Hoover's campaign team learned that the electoral votes had already exceeded half. Although it wasn't yet time to raise glasses in celebration, the committee members inside the campaign headquarters had already relaxed. Not only was this the case for Hoover's campaign headquarters, but the same was true for his opponent's. This was a campaign without suspense; everyone had long understood that Hoover would surely win.

Prescott Bush had also arrived at the Republican Party's headquarters in Washington at this time, preparing to attend the upcoming evening banquet. Politicians chatted relaxedly. Hoover's campaign office had already announced the victory, and everyone was waiting for New York Democratic Governor Alfred E. Smith, Hoover's opponent in this election, to announce his concession.

Sure enough, at two o'clock in the afternoon, although the vote counting hadn't finished, the Democratic Party announced their defeat, acknowledging that Hoover had won the general election. As the news came in, a wave of relaxed and joyous applause erupted within the Republican headquarters.

Prescott Bush was clapping along with the others when the secretary of the Republican Senate Chairman arrived at his side. "Mr. Bush, please come with me."

At this moment, the Republican Senate Chairman was surrounded by quite a few people. Seeing Prescott Bush approach, he left the crowd and walked into a nearby room. Bush entered the room and closed the door behind him. The Senate Chairman stepped forward, patted Bush on the shoulder, and praised, "Good work. Mr. Hoover is already preparing to send a representative to China."

Bush didn't ask at all if he was included in this, because he certainly wasn't. In President Hoover's campaign platform, expanding trade with Asia was a very important item in his foreign policy. Such matters would naturally be handled by people President Hoover trusted; it couldn't possibly fall on the head of Bush, who had only just squeezed into the edge of America's core political circle.

"Mr. Bush, would you be willing to join the Republican Fundraising Committee?" the Senate Chairman asked.

Bush couldn't help but reveal a smile; this was the return he had been expecting. If he could organize campaign fundraising well, especially for the re-election campaigns of Senators and Representatives, in the next term or the one after that, Prescott Bush might become a member of the presidential campaign team, or even make it onto the candidate list for Republican Representative or Senator. If Prescott Bush established political merit during this process, the timeline might even be shortened.

"Thank you for your trust," Bush replied.

"Help Mr. Bush get in touch with Mr. Stephen," the Senate Chairman instructed his secretary. Then he patted Bush on the shoulder again. "Young man, you will certainly have a great future." With that, he left.

In the afternoon, after attending Hoover's victory press conference, Bush hurriedly boarded a train and headed straight for New York. The night scene of New York was filled with feasting and revelry, especially in Manhattan. The height of several buildings under construction had not yet exceeded the completed skyscrapers, but the tall scaffolding already revealed the builders' ambitions.

Streets full of neon signs and the endless stream of cars made this world financial center appear incredibly magnificent. Bush's car stopped in front of a seven-story building; above the entrance stood the sign of 'Dukin Bank.' Walking into the building, he saw many offices on both sides of the corridor still brightly lit. Young men and women pouring coffee came and went, delivering not only coffee to the American financial workers working through the night but also meals and late-night snacks like sandwiches.

Taking the elevator to the top floor, Bush didn't enter the office but walked directly to the stairs leading to the rooftop. Pushing open the rooftop door, he saw two sofas near the edge. Someone was already sitting on one, the flickering light of a cigar slightly illuminating the man's very young face. Just looking at the hazy silhouette in the night lights, Bush confirmed it was his friend from the Class of 1917 at Yale and fellow Skull and Bones member, Percy Rockefeller.

When Bush sat down on the other sofa, Percy asked, "How did my old man treat you?"

"I feel he didn't care about me. Your old man seems to have spent all his time studying China and the Chinese Chairman."

Percy Rockefeller didn't ask more about this. "Scott, are you considering investing in China?" As an old friend, Percy liked to call Bush this.

"I'm considering how to provide China with an interest-free loan," Bush sighed.

"Non-black market interest rates already exceed 20%. Where do you plan to get an interest-free loan?" Percy thought Bush was daydreaming.

"In China now, there are also quite a few newspapers that believe the US stock market cannot sustain itself," Bush said, seemingly jumping topics.

Percy chuckled lightly. If China only recently thought the US stock market would fall, that was way too belated. Inside the US, since the end of 1926, a large number of media, scholars, and short-selling institutions had predicted a stock market crash; it had been two years now. Wall Street and the major US consortiums also believed the US stock market wouldn't continue like this, but the money flowing right before their eyes was incredibly real, and everyone wanted to keep scooping it up.

"Scott, my old man has already ordered people to investigate China's oil industry and heavy industry. They discovered something very strange: China also has heavy oil cracking technology. And the company's assessment believes China might even have hydrogenation technology."

Bush hadn't expected Rockefeller to be so fierce. After returning to the US, Bush had read recent newspapers and found that after a string of titles like 'Leader of Private Armies, Butcher of Workers, Evil Capitalist, Representative of Monopoly Capital,' Rockefeller had added a new title: 'Pink Partner of the Communist Party.'

This title looked very bizarre, yet Bush felt it had a flavor that wasn't incongruous.

However, since his old friend Percy had shared such news, Bush also said, "Recently, Hoover's personal representative has already gone to China. Also, I might become a member of the Republican Fundraising Committee."

"Oh? If that's the case, do you want to donate something to Franklin Roosevelt?"

"Your old man donated to him?" Bush was very surprised. President (Theodore) Roosevelt was Franklin Roosevelt's uncle, and everyone knew the conflict between the Roosevelt family and the Rockefeller family. Expressing support for the Roosevelt family through donations was truly somewhat abrupt.

"My old man seems to really like the Chinese Chairman. I heard that when the Chinese Chairman contacted the White House, he asked Franklin Roosevelt to pull the strings."

"God. Your old man really fears nothing." Bush had to sigh.

The two young men in their early thirties thus exchanged inside information that even ordinary wealthy Americans couldn't possibly know. And they weren't deliberately prying; these were simply contents they encountered in their daily lives and work.

After chatting, Bush stood up to leave. "I'm going home."

"Don't be in a hurry. When do Hoover's people leave?" Percy Rockefeller asked.

Hoover had extremely high prestige in the US, and President Coolidge had absolutely no intention of continuing to run. So Hoover sending his representative didn't trigger criticism from others. When Hoover's private diplomatic team arrived in China by plane, although they didn't receive an official welcome from China, the level of officials sent by the Chinese government for exchanges was equivalent to that for receiving a US presidential envoy.

When reporting to He Rui, Qin Tingyu, Director of the North American Department, specifically emphasized: "Chairman, Hoover's representatives seem very satisfied with our plan. Judging by the timeline, negotiations for the 'China-US Investment, Trade, and Tariff Package Agreement' and the 'China-US Industrial Cooperation and Tariff Adjustment Supplementary Agreement' can probably be completed around August 1929. As for the 'China-Japan-US Pacific Security and Reinsurance Agreement,' I think the general model will be negotiated around 1930."

He Rui didn't care at all. Recently, the Ministry of Finance submitted a report analyzing US economic data and speculation levels. This report was not a lyrical essay describing how grandmothers buying groceries on the street were all buying stocks, but simple and clear numbers. For example, US financial leverage was around 400% to 1000%. The nominal 12% interest rate couldn't borrow money at all; 20% was the normal lending rate. And the debt scale of ordinary US residents was about 120% or more of their income. That is to say, even if ordinary Americans stopped eating and drinking for a year, it would take 1.2 years to pay off their debts.

He Rui had seen the scene where US national debt exceeded 45 trillion dollars. These US national debts were 180% of the US nominal GDP including inflation. Although the US national situation was tottering, the US was quick to pay debts and didn't default.

However, if a country's people's debt reached 120% of their income, the borrowing population was definitely doomed. The rich wouldn't borrow money for their livelihood; those borrowing to make a living were basically low- and middle-income groups. Low- and middle-income earners are always the majority of a country's population. If these people go completely bankrupt, it means the country falls into comprehensive turmoil. In the eyes of He Rui, a person from the 21st century, the outbreak of the Great Depression was completely logical; it would be strange if it didn't break out.

Since the Great Depression was inevitable, He Rui was very relaxed. "No rush. After the outbreak of the Great Economic Crisis in the US, the US government won't have the capacity to focus on diplomatic issues for a short time. The Security and Reinsurance Agreement is a gesture, intended to release an attitude to the US that we have no intention of posing a security threat to them."

"The comrades in the Ministry of Finance have discussed the possibility of the US raising tariffs, as well as the possibility of the British Imperial Preference system mentioned by the Chairman. Their conclusion is that if it really develops to that extent, world trade is finished." The expression on Qin Tingyu's elegant face was serious.

He Rui shook his head. "World trade won't be finished, because the volume of world trade isn't large."

Hearing He Rui's analytical line of thought, Qin Tingyu quickly replied, "Looking at it that way, it is indeed so."

Seeing Qin Tingyu still somewhat too tense, He Rui smiled. "Comrade Tingyu, in a few more years, you will see what level transnational trade volume can reach under economic integration. Discussing international trade then will be very relaxing for everyone. So you can relax and wait and see."

Although He Rui very much wanted Qin Tingyu to relax a bit and not be overly nervous under the pressure of the full normalization of Sino-US relations, seeing Qin Tingyu's forced smile, He Rui felt his efforts seemed useless.

But this couldn't be blamed on Qin Tingyu. He Rui had seen the materials; the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), the foundation of the international trade system led by the US, was signed in Geneva on October 30, 1947, and began to be applied provisionally on January 1, 1948.

If world trade in 1913 is taken as 100, from 1913 to 1948, the volume of international trade didn't change much. It only began to grow rapidly after 1948. So, international trade in this colonial imperialist era really didn't need to be taken too seriously.

Since Qin Tingyu couldn't relax, He Rui simply stopped persuading. "Comrade Qin Tingyu, how likely do the comrades in the Ministry of Finance think it is that the US will adopt a high tariff policy?"

When talking about work, Qin Tingyu threw his thoughts to the back of his mind and was liberated from the pressure instead. "From an economic perspective, high tariffs make absolutely no sense. So the comrades in the Ministry of Finance think the probability is less than 50%."

He Rui could understand the comrades' thoughts, so he asked, "Then have you discussed with the comrades in the Ministry of Finance the tradition of high tariffs in the US since its founding? Have you considered the US path dependence on high tariffs?"

Qin Tingyu's eyes lit up. "I'm very interested in this line of thought. But to explain this to the Ministry of Finance, we still need the Chairman to do it."

"No need. If I go and talk, everyone will immediately take it as gospel. Path dependence is itself a direction for exploration."

"Then please tell me about your view on the US path dependence on high tariffs, Chairman." Qin Tingyu was genuinely interested.

Over ten minutes later, Qin Tingyu understood He Rui's thinking and felt he understood why He Rui was unwilling to personally talk to the Ministry of Finance about this. High tariffs were indeed an American tradition, but whether high tariffs could solve the economic problems triggered by the outbreak of the Great Economic Crisis in the US showed absolutely no inevitability.

High tariffs could block foreign goods and squeeze out a market for American companies. Moreover, American goods were very competitive in the current world, so the US had a relatively strong capacity to withstand possible economic retaliation from other countries. Therefore, high tariffs were not a means to solve US economic problems, but to maintain political stability.

As to whether the US Hoover administration would adopt such a policy, there was no inevitable certainty. However, judging from a political perspective, the possibility of the US adopting high tariffs was indeed higher than considering the issue purely from an economic perspective.

After discussing these things, Qin Tingyu indeed felt much more relaxed. On the way to the Ministry of Finance, Qin Tingyu suddenly thought of a question: *Does China also have path dependence?* If it were China in the agricultural era, politics indeed had strong path dependence. But what about China in the industrialization era?

After thinking for a while, Qin Tingyu suddenly discovered that China's current path dependence was probably dependence on He Rui's decisions. If someone else told Qin Tingyu about 'path dependence,' Qin Tingyu would probably listen very seriously, but he definitely wouldn't immediately communicate with the comrades in the Ministry of Finance according to such a line of thought. Conversely, with He Rui, Qin Tingyu would naturally execute according to a line of thought he hadn't heard of ten minutes ago. This was standard path dependence.

He Rui was a strategist; the strategic concepts he proposed and the various policies he formulated had all achieved success. Before the authority brought by this sense of trust was thoroughly weakened, the comrades had no other path to choose.

In April 1929, President Coolidge attended Hoover's inauguration ceremony. And Hoover, full of spirit at the inauguration ceremony, loudly announced his view to the Americans attending: "With the help of God, we shall soon, with the help of God, be in sight of the day when poverty will be banished from this nation."

Hearing this, the American people erupted in cheers like mountains calling and seas roaring, expressing their expectation of permanently staying away from poverty and their trust in President Hoover.

In June 1929, the *China-US Investment, Trade, and Tariff Package Agreement* was signed. In August, the *China-US Industrial Cooperation and Tariff Adjustment Supplementary Agreement* was signed.

*The Wall Street Journal* published an enthusiastic article: '...We once tried to open the Chinese market from the outside by various means, but ultimately failed. Now, a modern Chinese government led by an outstanding Chinese leader has opened the embrace of the Chinese market to the United States. This proves to us that only a modern government can understand the modern economy. Helping China become a more modern, more enlightened country will inevitably promote friendship between China and the US and further expand trade between the two countries.'

Not only *The Wall Street Journal*, but most US media were praising the Chinese government. These articles amused He Rui. In the eyes of the American left wing, China was not an evil capitalist country; it had indeed done what a socialist country should do in eliminating poverty, popularizing education, promoting equality, and fostering national development.

The American right-wing media also didn't dislike China. Because things like land reform had been done by every industrial country. China's land reform plan didn't appear unusually brutal. Moreover, China hadn't eliminated private enterprise and adopted a market economy that Europe and America could fully accept.

As for the Civility Party winning the vast majority of parliamentary seats with an overwhelming advantage in China's 1929 general election, and He Rui being re-elected as Chairman of the Republic of China with over 90% of the votes, anyone who didn't view China with a malicious perspective could understand such a result. A leader who saved the nation's destiny and a political party that saved the people of the whole country from bankruptcy would inevitably receive such support.

Stimulated by the opening of the Chinese market, the US stock market surged again. Industrialists, academic economists, and government leaders all expressed confidence in the future. Secretary of the Treasury Andrew William Mellon also assured the public in September 1929: "There is no cause for worry. The high tide of prosperity will continue."

Ordinary American people had no feeling about these words; they simply believed President Hoover's campaign promise: 'A chicken in every pot and a car in every garage.'

On the very day US Treasury Secretary Andrew spoke, Prescott Bush invited his friends from the Skull and Bones society at university to his office. With the support of his father-in-law's Walker family, Prescott Bush had successfully started his own financial company, transforming into a financial tycoon.

The Skull and Bones friends had been like-minded since their university days. Bush didn't explain first but proposed his own suggestion: "Sell all the stocks of holding companies and do not buy stocks again in the short term."

Several friends looked at each other. Percy Rockefeller was the first to ask, "Is it finally going to drop?"

"Yes. That damned metal company! I didn't expect him to trigger it." Bush finished with disgust, stood up, walked to the window, and looked out at the still bustling Manhattan with his hands behind his back.

In the past three years in the US, people had cried wolf every day. Ordinary people might have long been tired of hearing it, but the truly wealthy hadn't been foolish. Their wealth wasn't actually in the stock market but in various industrial fields. So everyone knew that the shock triggered by the metal speculator Bush mentioned was just a fuse. A large number of short sellers were sniping at that metal speculation, and the sniping succeeded. It dragged down stock prices, causing fluctuations.

At this moment, Bush calmed down a bit. He turned around and said to his friends, "According to news I heard, the Federal Reserve has decided to control speculative behavior. To force funds back into the production sector, the Federal Reserve will raise the rediscount rate from 5% in August to 6% and will regulate public utility holding companies in October!"

If Bush's view on metal speculation only slightly surprised his friends, the Federal Reserve's action shocked everyone present. Percy Rockefeller immediately said, "I'd like to use your phone."

The others made the same request. Prescott Bush was prepared; he had his secretary lead them to the phone room while he walked to the window again with hands behind his back, looking down at the street below.

The ant-like crowd made Bush feel very unpleasant, and the Federal Reserve's decision made him feel it was absurd. The US economy had already reached a turning point; even if the Fed didn't act, the stock market would start to fall. If the Fed didn't act now, the US stock market might fall into a continuous slow decline for the next few years.

Now that the Fed was acting, the slow decline would turn into a crash. The whole market would be in chaos!

But finding out the Federal Reserve's decision was Bush's current limit. However, Prescott Bush soon recovered his calm. Everyone who needed to be notified had been notified. He could also judge the future financial trend; it was his turn to make money.

In October 1929, the Federal Reserve meeting made the decision just as Bush knew. The impact caused by the failure of metal speculation hadn't yet dissipated, and the news about regulating public utility holding companies became the last straw that broke the camel's back. The stock market began to crash, and investors who bought stocks on margin were forced to sell. Because this portion of stocks was leveraged, the debt was directly amplified. Starting from October 29, the systemic risk of the US financial system was thoroughly activated. The crisis was amplified by leverage and began to transmit at an astonishing speed.

It was night in China at this time. Although the news traveled halfway around the globe via radio waves to arrive in China, it was quickly analyzed and classified by the night shift staff and placed in the highest priority column. When dawn broke and the Chinese central government went to work, it would be delivered to the leaders of various relevant departments immediately.