Chapter 553: Modernization (3)
Volume 5: International Relations · Chapter 83
Tokyo had just entered the rainy season. Raindrops fell from the low, seemingly permanent clouds, drumming against roofs and window lattices, plunging Tokyo into a gloom. Inside the Prime Minister's residence, however, the large conference room was brightly lit.
Tanaka Yūki, the Director-General of the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, was not dampened by the weather. Instead, he was chatting happily in low tones with Kawai Gorō, the Director-General of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. "This year's planting has been completed very well. So far, the weather has been favorable."
Kawai Gorō nodded slightly, though his thoughts were on the strong sales of agricultural tools and other commodities in the countryside this year. If the agricultural harvest was good, domestic sales of Japanese industrial goods would increase further. In these times of fiscal scarcity, guiding which industries to support was a critical task for the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry under his leadership.
"Does the countryside require a lot of female labor right now?" Kawai Gorō asked.
Tanaka Yūki looked a bit puzzled but didn't answer immediately. Kawai Gorō continued, "There is actually a labor shortage in the textile industry right now. Can you believe it, Tanaka-kun?"
The textile industry was currently Japan's pillar industry. Tanaka Yūki felt he understood Kawai Gorō's train of thought but didn't take the bait. If Kawai Gorō wanted to get more young girls from the countryside to work in textile factories, Tanaka Yūki had no interest in helping. The greatest advantage of Japan's textile industry was not advanced equipment, but low wages. Before the Japanese Revolution, a Japanese textile worker's wage was one-third that of a British worker, or even lower. Even after the Revolution and the establishment of a minimum wage system, wages in textile factories remained very low.
Just then, the doors opened, and the Prime Minister of the Republic of Japan, Ishiwara Kanji, strode into the conference room. The cabinet members immediately stopped talking and stood up. Ishiwara Kanji walked to the Prime Minister's seat, his sharp gaze sweeping over these cabinet Director-Generals. Seeing that every Director-General was fully in meeting mode, he ordered, "Gentlemen, please sit."
Executive power in the Republic of Japan resided with the Cabinet. The political party that won in the Diet formed the Cabinet Office led by the Prime Minister. The government consisted of the Cabinet Office and twelve ministries and agencies, including the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Ministry of Justice, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Finance (Ōkura-shō), Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Ministry of the Environment, Ministry of Defense, and the National Public Safety Commission (National Police Agency).
Under China's push, various countries had recognized the government of the Republic of Japan, and Japan's land reform was now nearly complete. So, after sitting down, Prime Minister Ishiwara Kanji immediately said, "According to the plan, Japan will hold general elections in July to elect Diet members. This general election will be the first true democratic election in Japan. I look forward to seeing you all here again in a month."
The members of the Japan Future Society heard the confidence in their President Ishiwara Kanji's tone and expressed that they would definitely do their best. Ishiwara Kanji then had the Secretary-General of the Future Society, Ishii Hiroshi, arrange election matters before concluding the cabinet meeting.
Ishiwara Kanji chatted for a while with the Director-Generals responsible for economic affairs. When he returned to the Prime Minister's office, the Director-General of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Director-General of the Ministry of Defense were already waiting.
The Director-General of the Ministry of Defense was the only cabinet Director-General appointed by the Prime Minister. The other Director-Generals in the cabinet were all civil servants, and the Defense Director-General was also a civil servant. Since he was a civilian official, whether the Defense Director-General himself was an active-duty military officer was no longer important. Therefore, the current Defense Director-General, Yamamoto Isoroku, wearing a Navy Vice Admiral's uniform, stood up together with Foreign Ministry Director-General Yagyū Kōmei upon seeing Ishiwara enter wearing an old Army uniform without rank insignia.
Ishiwara was very open when facing these two Director-Generals who were technical experts. As he gestured for them to sit, he also sat down on the sofa, spreading his legs casually and asking in a relaxed tone, "Yamamoto-kun, if the Chinese National Defense Force heads south, can we stop them?"
Yamamoto Isoroku was not frightened by this question. He answered with a chuckle, "We could probably hold out for two months."
Ishiwara was very clear about the current combat capabilities of China and Japan. Hearing Yamamoto's completely clear-headed assessment, he sat up straight and asked Foreign Ministry Director-General Yagyū Kōmei to explain China's views on Korea and other regions to Yamamoto Isoroku. As Yamamoto Isoroku listened, his expression gradually grew grave. However, there was no look of anger. After Yagyū Kōmei finished, Yamamoto thought for a while before saying, "Is Ryukyu also to be treated together with Korea and Taiwan?"
"He-kun's intention is for East Asia to completely return to the traditional geopolitical structure. If we refuse, it is possible that He-kun will employ military means." Ishiwara Kanji had a deep understanding of He Rui's ability to execute strategy.
Yamamoto Isoroku naturally did not want Japan to lose the fruits of sixty years of hard struggle. Even knowing that defeat was inevitable, Yamamoto still straightened his back and said, "Prime Minister, please allow me to discuss this matter with the officers of the Ministry of Defense."
Ishiwara Kanji answered decisively, "I will ask Professor Taira Toyomori to attend the meeting."
Yamamoto Isoroku frowned. "Is Ishiwara-kun intending to ask His Excellency Taira Toyomori to persuade the Army and Navy?"
"No!" Ishiwara Kanji shook his head with a serious expression. "I expect Professor Taira Toyomori to make the military understand what kind of future Japan actually needs!"
Yamamoto Isoroku felt considerable resistance internally, but he had no way to refuse. Administratively, Japan had a parliamentary cabinet system within a representative democracy, but Japan also elected a President through a one-person-one-vote system. This structure was not unfamiliar to the Japanese; viewing the President as the Emperor, the Prime Minister as the Shogun, and the various parties as Daimyo made for a traditional political structure that the Japanese were very familiar with.
Even though the President of the Republic of Japan was merely the head of state and the representative of Japan—an honorary position—the officer corps of the Ministry of Defense could not refuse to discuss issues with the President.
After Yamamoto Isoroku took his leave, Foreign Ministry Director-General Yagyū Kōmei asked, "Your Excellency, why did you not first obtain the consent of the other cabinet members before discussing with the military?"
Ishiwara Kanji smiled slightly. "I am not entirely sure why He-kun chose this specific point in time to convey this kind of message to us. Of course, it is also possible that He-kun did not think this way, but rather our probing elicited this answer from him. Since the timing is such, we must first secure the military's agreement. Whether other cabinet members support it is actually not that important."
Yagyū Kōmei was not entirely sure, nor did he express opposition. The economy was improving across the board, but the cabinet was not optimistic about challenges. Pre-revolutionary Japan wanted to solve the problems of raw materials and markets, but because it lost to China, the economy collapsed. Although the current government had largely adjusted domestic relations in Japan and created a domestic market, the problems Japan faced remained unsolved.
According to Saionji Kinkazu's retelling, the Chinese government had not only raised the issues of Korea, Taiwan, and Ryukyu with the Japanese government but also proposed establishing an economic cooperation organization to solve Japan's economic problems. Although Japan would lose something, it would also gain something.
After judging the situation, Yagyū Kōmei had to agree with Ishiwara Kanji's view. As long as they won over the military on this matter, they would have the power to suppress those who opposed it. But conversely, even if they won over all forces outside the military, as long as the military was dead set against it, this matter could not be accomplished.
By this time, Yamamoto Isoroku had returned to the Ministry of Defense office building. The old Cabinet's Ministry of the Navy and Ministry of the Army had been abolished; the Navy and Army now both belonged to the Ministry of Defense. The Director-General of the Ministry of Defense was a civil service position appointed by the Prime Minister. The long-criticized conflict between the Army and Navy had been resolved in this manner, something Yamamoto Isoroku had never imagined.
Just as the meeting Yamamoto Isoroku convened was about to begin, Secretary Shirakawa Uemon, a Major, ran in. "Your Excellency, the President is on the phone asking if he can join the meeting?"
Yamamoto looked at the former Army and Navy officers sitting distinctly on opposite sides of the conference table, sitting upright and keeping their thoughts to themselves. He could only order, "Tell President Taira that we await his arrival."
Taira Toyomori's Presidential Palace was the former Imperial Palace, so in less than fifteen minutes, he walked into the Ministry of Defense's large conference room. The group of officers immediately stood up and saluted. Although Taira Toyomori was already President, he still looked like a professor. Pushing up his black-rimmed glasses, he ordered, "Please sit." He then walked to the head seat and sat down himself.
"Gentlemen, the conflict between the Army and Navy has a long history. Its core lies in the understanding of Japan as a nation. The Army continued the Chinese cultural perspective, viewing Japan as a continental country with vast territory. The Navy applied the Euro-American perspective, viewing Japan as an island nation. These different views on the nation led to the struggle between the Japanese Army and Navy..."
Sitting there, Yamaguchi Tamon felt this explanation was all too familiar; He Rui had said the same thing over a decade ago. After more than ten years of experience, Yamaguchi Tamon had come to deeply understand the correctness of this view.
"The institutional cause of the Army-Navy conflict was the establishment of the Navy Ministry and the Army Ministry. This was originally a policy of compromise with the old clan cliques, but later it turned into a means of using the Army and Navy to check each other. Both the Army and the Navy are very clear that without Japan's interests, there are no interests for the military. If the regular army loses the support of the state, are you prepared to become mountain bandits or pirates?"
It was impossible for the officers not to understand this, but hearing Taira Toyomori explain it in a relaxed tone reduced their resistance significantly.
Although Taira Toyomori was not a soldier, geopolitics itself did not require one to be a military expert to study it. Seeing the officers' resistance lower, he asked a very realistic question. "Gentlemen, do you believe we can hold Korea and Taiwan under an attack by the Chinese army?"
Judging from the officers' first reaction to this question, they wanted to say they could do it. However, the officers ultimately did not speak such obviously unrealistic words. Especially the Army; they knew very well they could not withstand an attack by the Chinese National Defense Force.
Taira Toyomori continued to pose questions. "If China and Japan go to war, who among the countries in the region will support Japan? And who among the countries outside the region will support Japan?"
This was a question for the General Staff. Many of the Army and Navy officers present were from their respective General Staffs. Hearing Taira Toyomori ask questions methodically, peeling back layer after layer, a sense of admiration arose spontaneously. Taira Toyomori was a famous great scholar, yet they had never heard that Professor Taira Toyomori had any background in military science.
For Taira Toyomori, this was merely a simple application of geopolitics. Geopolitics is a discipline, and its core is simply the requirement that all science must possess: seeking truth from facts.
Speaking to this point, the professor's habit made Taira Toyomori involuntarily turn his head to look behind him. Sure enough, there was a large blackboard. Standing up and taking off his suit jacket, Professor Taira Toyomori walked to the blackboard, picked up a piece of chalk, and wrote down the two terms "Regional Countries" and "Extra-regional Countries." Then he wrote the names Soviet Union, Britain, France, USA, and Netherlands. Based on the content, he drew lines connecting them to the two terms. He then began to explain the relationships between the countries.
The Japan of today was facing a resurgent China. In a struggle over Korea and Taiwan, based purely on the comparison of strength between the two countries, Japan would inevitably lose. When war broke out between China and Japan, the only country left in the region was the Soviet Union. Even if the Soviet Union did not openly support China, it would absolutely not support Japan. Therefore, Japan could not obtain support from regional countries.
As for extra-regional countries, France had initiated cooperation with China and could not support Japan. Britain might not truly support Japan at this stage either; at most, it would use non-support of Japan as a bargaining chip to exchange for benefits from China. As for the United States and the Netherlands, they were even less to be counted on. Therefore, if a conflict over Korea and Taiwan broke out, Japan would receive no support whether from within or outside the region.
Yamamoto Isoroku greatly appreciated President Taira Toyomori's explanation so far; it was a cold but rational military attitude. If the military were in that hot-headed mode, then there would truly be no saving them.
After Taira Toyomori finished speaking, he asked as if questioning students, "Gentlemen, do you have a line of thinking for defeating the Chinese army?"
The Army and Navy officers thought hard. In operations in the Korean region, the Navy's use was limited, and the Army could not win no matter what. In the Taiwan region, although the Chinese Navy's strength was insufficient, the Army could not be brought into play. Surely they couldn't station hundreds of thousands of Japanese Army troops on the island of Taiwan?
Leaving aside whether they could win then, just transporting hundreds of thousands of Army troops and equipment to Taiwan and maintaining logistical supplies for this army would subject Japan to immense pressure. It would likely be unsustainable. The Chinese Air Force was very strong. If they really launched suicide attacks, the Japanese Navy truly couldn't hold out. The Japanese troops on Taiwan would consume their supplies with nothing coming in, and would starve themselves first.
"Mr. President, we can wait for changes by stalling," an officer replied.
"Stalling to wait for changes seems to be a method, but does the Chinese side lack relevant means?" Taira Toyomori asked.
"...This subordinate is dull, please enlighten us, President."
"China does not need to fight us directly. They can arm the Koreans to fight us and dispatch so-called Volunteer Armies into Korea. If it drags on like this, how long can the Army last? Furthermore, at this time, if the Chinese army directly attacks Taiwan, how should Japan respond then?"
No Japanese officer dared to answer this question. If even a scholar like Taira Toyomori could think of these means, how could a soldier like He Rui not consider them carefully? But realizing that Japan was bound to lose actually provoked anger in the Japanese officers. Someone said loudly, "Mr. President, if China starts a war, it is wrong."
This angry questioning smacked of impotent rage, so much so that Yamamoto, Yamaguchi, and several Army officers couldn't help but sneer. Although they didn't speak, their inner thoughts were the same. The Qing government also thought the Treaty of Shimonoseki was wrong. But forced by the situation, they had to sign. Times had changed. If the Emperor of China during the First Sino-Japanese War had been He Rui, would Japan have dared to go to war with China?
Taira Toyomori did not discuss right or wrong. He clapped the chalk dust from his hands and sat back in his seat. "Gentlemen, what does Japan need? Is it years of war, or a peaceful and affluent life? If it is a peaceful and affluent life, we need a developed and healthy economy. A developed and healthy economy requires raw materials and markets..."
The officers were officers after all; their comprehension was not an issue. Moreover, this batch of officers all supported the ideals of the Future Society and only felt they couldn't give up Korea and Taiwan due to nationalist sentiments. But once their emotions calmed down, they also knew very well that Japan could not hold these two regions.
After Taira Toyomori finished explaining what the Japanese economy needed and described the concept of regional economic integration to the officers, Yamaguchi Tamon couldn't help but ask, "Mr. President, to maintain Japan's shipbuilding capacity, will China place orders with Japanese shipyards?"
The Navy officers had more or less considered this possibility, and they looked at Taira Toyomori together with the stunned Army officers. Taira Toyomori answered calmly, "Why not? Regional integration means industrial division of labor. Advantageous industries will receive investment from within the region. Since Japan's shipbuilding industry is currently stronger than China's, China has a necessity to improve shipbuilding capacity within the entire integrated regional economy by investing in Japan's shipbuilding industry."
"...If China invests, won't they control Japan's shipbuilding industry?" an Army officer asked.
"Investment secures management rights. The best means to control the shipbuilding industry is to send an army to take it over. A shipyard can only gain profit after selling ships. Does an investor secure management rights to make money, or to lose money?"
Although Yamaguchi Tamon didn't like economic concepts, as a member of the Navy faction, he knew very well that there was no need to fight a war that couldn't be won. Furthermore, Yamaguchi Tamon had always admired He Rui, knowing that although He Rui was extremely ruthless in war, he was not a leader who drove people to their deaths in peaceful life.
When he saw Yamamoto Isoroku looking at him, he understood what he needed to say at this moment. So he asked, "Mr. President, is He-kun wanting to exchange Japan's future for the East Asian structure returning to the old border lines?"
The term 'old border lines' had the style of a politician; it described the facts clearly without overly stimulating people's emotions. Taira Toyomori looked at Yamaguchi Tamon with appreciation before turning to the officers. "What does the Republic of Japan pursue? Is it not the happy life and bright future of the Japanese people? Before the Western nations launched their offensive against Asia, the old border lines were maintained for over a thousand years. Although wars occurred during that time, the old border lines did not cause Japan any suffering. Now, restoring the old border lines will allow Japan to obtain opportunities for development throughout the entire East Asian region. I believe this is Japan's future."
The officers fell silent. Everyone knew very well they couldn't win, and certainly couldn't outlast the enemy. Moreover, the war between the Northeast and Japan, as well as the Sino-British War, proved that He Rui was a leader who would not hesitate or look back. If he decided on something, he would act.
However, the officers still cared about face. After a long silence, someone asked, "Even if the Ministry of Defense agrees to negotiate with China, what will the civilian government think? They always have to face the pressure of public opinion, right?"
Hearing this, Yamaguchi Tamon almost laughed out loud. When had the military ever cared about public opinion before, let alone the civilian government? Saying this was naturally admitting cowardice, but trying to push the pot—which might be considered selling out the country—onto the civilian government to carry.
Yamamoto Isoroku said seriously, "The civilian government will naturally take responsibility for this. Our responsibility at the Ministry of Defense is to submit the various possibilities of war to the Prime Minister for the Cabinet to discuss."
Yamaguchi Tamon was quite familiar with Yamamoto, and he completely saw that beneath that serious expression was a frozen bitter smile. It was evident that Yamamoto had formed his own view long ago.
After a very short period of stating positions, the Army Ministry threw this pot to the Cabinet.