The Future of Japan (4)
Volume 5: International Relations · Chapter 4
Okamura ultimately didn't dare to resolve to go see Ishiwara, but a car had already stopped in front of Saionji Kinmochi's residence. Saionji personally came out to welcome the guest, which surprised Taira Toyomori, who had just stepped out of the car.
Facing Japan's only remaining Genrō, Taira Toyomori immediately stepped forward and bowed. Saionji nodded in return and immediately said, "Lord Taira, please come in."
Taira Toyomori hurriedly said, "Your Excellency jests." In his heart, he became even more cautious.
The two entered the living room, and Saionji asked Taira Toyomori which branch of the Taira clan he belonged to.
The Taira clan were descendants of Emperor Kammu. In Japan, a country where 'kings, princes, generals, and ministers are indeed born of a certain stock', they certainly possessed more status than commoners. However, the Taira clan had only been powerful for a period 700 years ago. After the defeat in the Genpei War, those of the Taira clan who made a name for themselves would add a character to their surname; surnames like 'Hirai' and 'Ohira' also originated from the Taira clan.
On the contrary, those who continued to use the surname Taira were basically just holding onto a surname while struggling at the bottom.
Saionji had investigated Taira Toyomori's background in detail. Taira Toyomori himself didn't hide or fabricate information about his ancestors and frankly introduced his family's situation. Taira Toyomori's grandfather, Taira Ichirō, was a lower-ranking samurai who married the daughter of a retainer. In the chaotic times of the Bakumatsu, his father, Taira Shinji, married the grandniece of Katsu Kaishu, allowing Taira Toyomori's family to finally connect with the latest culture.
Taira Toyomori grew up in a very good family cultural environment, excelled in his studies, went smoothly to Tokyo Imperial University, then studied abroad in Britain, obtaining a Doctorate in Law from Cambridge. After graduation, he returned to Tokyo Imperial University to teach at the Law School.
After a brief exchange, Saionji didn't use the address 'Lord Taira' but said seriously, "Taira-kun, three years ago, Excellency Takahashi recommended Excellency Taira for the position of Minister of Finance. If Taira-kun hadn't refused, the Imperial State today would be very different."
Hearing this, Taira Toyomori had already guessed Saionji Kinmochi's thoughts. The current trend of Japan's economic recession was irreversible. After Sino-British relations turned to cooperation, Japan lost all possibility of turning the situation around on its own, and there was no longer any possibility of obtaining more resources from the outside world. Since only the method of solving problems from within Japan remained, Saionji hoped Taira Toyomori could come out to lead the reform.
Sure enough, Saionji continued, "Taira-kun, you are Japan's most outstanding scholar. From the Emperor down to the common people, everyone knows you. At this time when everyone's hope rests on you, why not give some guidance?"
Saionji's hint was very clear, but Taira Toyomori remained unmoved. "Excellency, I have already written down the method. Why must Your Excellency ask like this?"
Saionji was also unmoved. "I have already read the 'Outline for Japan's Future Reformation'. That is just the method. But Taira-kun didn't explain clearly why we should do this."
"Has Excellency Saionji read geopolitics?"
"I've read it, but I didn't understand it." Saionji didn't hide it either. The basic principles of geopolitics were not complicated; the core was that human actions are inevitably influenced by the natural environment and surrounding human activities. And these influences are bidirectional, not unidirectional.
For Saionji, these principles were just simple basic concepts. So Saionji found that he could use geopolitics to explain things that had already happened, but using geopolitics to deduce the results he wanted was beyond his reach.
But the Taira Toyomori before him was the co-author of "Introduction to Geopolitics" with He Rui and was considered Japan's number one master of geopolitics. As for He Rui's ability, no more needed to be said. Saionji continued, "Please, Taira-kun, enlighten me."
Taira Toyomori didn't decline and explained, "Japan won the First Sino-Japanese War and the Russo-Japanese War, and joined the Allied side. For decades, national power flourished. These three wars were different. In the First Sino-Japanese War, Japan won a window of opportunity for development and obtained indemnities, Korea, and Taiwan through the Treaty of Shimonoseki. The window for development refers to Japan having absolutely no external military threats and being able to fully develop its domestic economy. The military burden was not heavy at that time, so Japan's economy developed extremely fast.
Korea was a dumping ground for Japanese goods. At that time, compared with Europe, Japanese industrial products were of poor quality and high price. But with a dumping ground, they could all be sold. Taiwan guaranteed Japan's sea lanes with Southeast Asia, allowing Japan's economy to develop.
The so-called unwritten national policy of the Imperial State, believed to be winning economic benefits through military victory, was fully recognized at this time."
Saionji nodded slightly. Back then, he had followed his mentor Ito Hirobumi to accomplish this great event. Recalling Japan's rapid development at that time, Saionji felt a burst of emotion.
Taira Toyomori continued, "The Russo-Japanese War was a war to defend Japan's national security. Tsarist Russia was insatiable for territory and expanded wantonly. Japan defeated Tsarist Russia, not only gaining the respect of the Great Powers but also securing a safe environment for the next ten years.
But domestic Japan didn't understand the purpose of this war, sticking to old ways and thinking this was a good opportunity for expansion. So after taking Tsarist Russia's colonies in China, they strengthened their infringement on China. This made the opportunity to ease Sino-Japanese relations completely fall through!
Although Lord Ito had foresight and tried his best to reverse this situation—he went to China, wanting to make friends with Chinese people with lofty ideals, and even wanted to fully persuade the Manchu Emperor to invite Lord Ito to be the Prime Minister of the Qing Dynasty—fate was not on his side. Lord Ito was assassinated, and the strategic opportunity was completely lost."
Saionji Kinmochi's face twitched twice. His mentor Ito Hirobumi was assassinated by a Korean in the Northeast. At that time, Ito Hirobumi was indeed trying his best to ease Sino-Japanese relations, just as Taira Toyomori said. Even with Ito Hirobumi's prestige and status, it was still difficult. And once Ito Hirobumi died, Sino-Japanese relations immediately went from bad to worse. Any Japanese political figure who wanted to improve Sino-Japanese relations faced huge pressure from within Japan, and all efforts came to naught.
But recalling the past was useless. Saionji pulled his thoughts back to reality and asked, "Taira-kun, do you think Japan's strategic judgment was wrong at that time?"
Taira Toyomori evaluated unceremoniously, "Japan didn't understand what kind of war it had fought at that time. Even if a few people understood, they couldn't do anything in the face of pressure from the Japanese government and public. A war that should have been a glorious, just war was forcibly turned into a dog-eat-dog war fighting for colonial interests. It's truly laughable! A war that should have made Japan the leader of Asia became nondescript just because of those petty profits."
Saionji Kinmochi couldn't oppose Taira Toyomori's words. After a moment of silence, he said, "What about the Great War in Europe? What kind of war was that?"
"The Great War in Europe was a war for Japan to dump goods on the world. Japan's domestic short-sightedness reached a heinous level! To dump goods on the world naturally requires a large amount of cheap raw materials. So after taking Qingdao, Japan should have returned Kiautschou completely to China in exchange for Sino-Japanese friendship. And through various aid and cooperation with China, jointly develop resources and dump even more goods on the world. As a result, Japan forcibly occupied Kiautschou and treated China as a colony. Not only did it waste a great opportunity again, but it also intensified Sino-Japanese conflicts. After the May Fourth Movement, Chinese nationalism surged, and waves of boycotting Japanese goods rose one after another. The interruption of Sino-Japanese trade today is the karma planted at that time."
Saionji fell silent. Taira Toyomori's words were sharp, even somewhat harsh. But Taira Toyomori was right. It wasn't that no politicians in Japan saw this, but those people were isolated and weak, completely unable to stop the greed within Japan. Moreover, at that time, He Rui had already returned to the country and seized the Northeast. With He Rui's existence, Japan's future was already unchangeable.
Taira Toyomori knew that Saionji could still be considered a politician. Although much weaker than Ito Hirobumi, he was better than the group currently in power. He continued, "The core of the 'Outline for Japan's Future Reformation' is the economic idea that Japan relies mainly on the domestic economy, with exports as a supplement. Japan lacks domestic resources. If it wants to develop continuously, it must ensure the supply of domestic raw materials. The source of this supply requires cooperation with major powers. If Japan still insists on the previous line of thinking, this road will definitely be dead. Excellency Saionji, do you think Japan will accept such a path?"
This question was very simple. Saionji knew very well, 'It's impossible!'
But Saionji felt some defiance in his heart. Young brats could certainly criticize the deeds of their ancestors wantonly, but that didn't mean young brats could do better. Saionji didn't answer Taira Toyomori's question but asked back, "Taira-kun, presumably He-kun is already very clear about what you said. But what is the difference between what He-kun is doing now and Japan?"
Saionji thought Taira Toyomori would think for a while before answering this question, or would feel unhappy and immediately refute something. Unexpectedly, Taira Toyomori's expression actually became somewhat high-spirited, and he answered with full emotion, "What He-kun wants to establish is a New World Order! If Your Excellency doesn't have the vision of a world order, it will naturally look inexplicable."
...Saionji didn't know what to say for a moment. He felt Taira Toyomori might be crazy; he spoke of 'World Order' as soon as he opened his mouth. But on second thought, Taira Toyomori had been He Rui's academic partner for more than ten years, so presumably he had listened to what He Rui said. Then it wasn't just Taira Toyomori who was crazy; He Rui had probably also fallen into some kind of madness.
Managing to steady his mind with difficulty, Saionji asked, "I wonder what kind of world order it is?"
"A new order of global industrialization." Taira Toyomori answered extremely crisply.
Saionji failed to understand this term at first. When he tried hard to understand it, he couldn't help but shudder.
Industrialization is currently the most powerful force in the world. Japan's industrialization level was higher than China's, so it won the First Sino-Japanese War and defeated the behemoth that was the Qing Dynasty.
So industrialization is undoubtedly the exclusive preserve of the Great Powers. The Great Powers hope there are as few industrial countries as possible so that a few can rule the entire world. He Rui actually went the opposite way, attempting to industrialize the whole world... He Rui is truly crazy!
Taira Toyomori also felt he had said too much; Saionji probably couldn't accept it. It wasn't that Taira Toyomori looked down on people. Japan, after all, was an ancient country of 3,000 years within the Chinese cultural sphere; it wasn't so bereft that no one could understand world order. But countries qualified to participate in constructing a world order needed vast territory, a large population, and a high degree of civilization. Even if many people in Japan could understand, it didn't mean Japan had the qualifications to be a player in this field.
Whether a person like Saionji could understand actually didn't mean much. Moreover, whether Saionji himself could truly understand was still a questionable issue. Seeing Saionji silent for a long time, Taira Toyomori voiced the refusal he had long wanted to say, "Excellency, Japan's current problem lies in the fact that the domestic polity is still a system continuing from the Shogunate. Under such a system, a truly reasonable decision-making system cannot emerge. I am of little weight and influence, powerless to carry out such huge reforms for Japan. I have no way to serve Japan."
Hearing Taira Toyomori's refusal, Saionji was not surprised. With Taira Toyomori's analysis of the First Sino-Japanese War, the Russo-Japanese War, and the Great War in Europe, the height of his vision belonged to the level that could open up a hundred-year future for Japan. And what Saionji and those around him needed was someone who could immediately solve Japan's immediate problems. The vision Taira Toyomori possessed was not only not what Japan needed now, but might even be harmful to the current Japan.
After another moment of silence, Saionji put aside other thoughts and asked sincerely, "Taira-kun, did He-kun's plan persuade you?"
Taira Toyomori answered decisively, "He-kun never likes to persuade people. How could a hero like him not know that what people seek is mostly not the arduous road, but the delicious fruit? It was I who agreed with He-kun's views."
Saionji felt he was old, but at this moment he could understand Taira Toyomori's emotions very well. Saionji hadn't always been old; when he was young and following his mentor Ito Hirobumi, Saionji also felt that no matter how impossible things in the world seemed, as long as everyone worked hard together, there would be hope. in that vigorous youth, there was joy, sorrow, regret, and pain.
But those vivid emotions still left memories in this aging body. When the feelings buried deep in his heart resonated with Taira Toyomori's emotions, Saionji felt as if he was young again.
With nostalgia, Saionji excluded other thoughts and asked seriously, "Why does He-kun think the whole world can be industrialized?"
Taira Toyomori remembered a sentence from the *Communist Manifesto*: The Communists disdain to conceal their views and aims. They openly declare that their ends can be attained only by the forcible overthrow of all existing social conditions. Let the ruling classes tremble at a Communistic revolution. The proletarians have nothing to lose but their chains. They have a world to win.
Taira Toyomori himself held some skepticism towards communism, but He Rui was a communist. And the daring spirit of the communists moved Taira Toyomori deeply.
When believing that knowledge will inevitably defeat ignorance, this courage from the heart is so inspiring. Even facing Saionji Kinmochi, who could potentially put him to death with a single sentence, Taira Toyomori had no fear. He explained, "The output of land is limited, and wealth is also limited. Only industrialization can push productivity to an unprecedented height, and through the continuous development of productivity, create endless wealth. Human instinct to pursue a better life is the same, so there is a demand for industrialization globally."
Saionji agreed with such a demand, but as a politician, Saionji had long ceased to be an idealist. He asked, "Then does He-kun not think he is rearing a tiger that will cause trouble?"
"Plunder seems to be the fastest way to accumulate wealth. But this approach leads to a very ridiculous situation. Even though the United States pushed slavery to such an extent, why did the United States ultimately liberate the slaves?" Taira Toyomori asked back.
Saionji was stunned. He felt Taira Toyomori certainly wouldn't give a childish explanation like 'this is morality'. If moral issues were not considered, then there were few explanations left. Saionji didn't try to explain but asked directly, "Why?"
"Because slaves have no purchasing power. If goods cannot be sold, it is just a waste. But having stripped other regions to the bone, who will buy the domestic goods? Moreover, even in the same country, the powerful elites are also depriving the lower classes of the fruits of their labor. This leads to the more that is produced, the faster the economic crisis comes. One economic crisis leaves the economy unable to recover for several years, wasting time for economic development. This is the result caused by an unreasonable social system and global order."
"Even if you destroy the elites, it may not necessarily make the lives of the lower classes better," Saionji couldn't help but mock. Saionji himself was once a very fierce social democrat, but cruel reality made him finally recognize the facts. Hearing those young idealist views, he couldn't help but mock a little.
Taira Toyomori was not discouraged in the slightest. "Industrialization is productivity. Highly developed productivity does not mean it must bring huge excess profits. Excess profits are only needed during plunder. If the whole world is industrialized, normal profit margins are enough to bring a sufficiently affluent life to the laborers. Economic fluctuations are an inevitable result of industrialized production; this has nothing to do with communism or other isms. But seeking the current optimal solution between fairness and efficiency—leaning towards fairness when fairness is lacking, leaning towards efficiency when efficiency is lacking. If investment risks need to be taken, give venture capital a higher rate of return. Letting the whole society, and even the whole world, move forward in such fluctuations is the path we must take at this stage."
"At this stage?" Saionji caught the key point.
"We don't know what the future will hold. Establishing a fair international order first and letting the whole world enter industrialization is the goal of this stage. If this goal is not achieved, wars and economic crises will constantly befall us. Just like the dynastic changes in Chinese history, one major crisis destroys the wealth and knowledge accumulated previously. The Great War in Europe was a rehearsal. Such a great war will not happen just once. Instead, it will happen again and again."
Saionji didn't misunderstand these things, but he felt young people like Taira Toyomori and He Rui were a bit too arrogant to actually think they could solve such problems. But on second thought, Saionji felt he could understand. If He Rui hadn't even considered these, his talk of wanting to build a 'New World Order' would be a lie.
At this moment, Saionji only felt exhausted. Following the young man's train of thought consumed a lot of his physical energy. Saionji decided to ask one last question. "How does He-kun view East Asia?"
Taira Toyomori answered immediately, "The East Asian economy must be integrated."
"Just the economy?" Saionji still caught the main point.
"If there is no economic integration, there can be no further political cooperation."
"...In other words..." Saionji weighed his words, trying to find the most appropriate ones.
Taira Toyomori answered directly, "If even the Japanese economy doesn't have a bright future, He-kun certainly won't have the ability to build a world economy with a bright future."